Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

@RJinVegas 77% of the early money on Jags +27 at Denver - according to BetOnline.ag


p.s what doesn't Jose see in Lukaku? Quite the oddest loan in years, that one

[tikay]

@RJinVegas 77% of the early money on Jags +27 at Denver - according to BetOnline.ag


p.s what doesn't Jose see in Lukaku? Quite the oddest loan in years, that one

Am not sure if Everton are very good, or Newcastle really bad, but it is so one-sided it is embarrassing to watch.

[Tal]

Blinking heck! 21.5?, redarmi? We were discussing a touchdown on that yesterday!

Is there any chance it's called a palp?

This occurred to me but -21.5 is a very legitimate spread and there is almost no doubt that is where they intend it to be.  It isn't a typo for sure they have just got it wrong because they won't pay for odds compilers that are competent and instead will restrict anyone with even half a clue to nothing.  I actually think it is fascinating because it exposes just how lacking these firms are in talent when they actually have to price something up that they can't copy.

I said 29.5 and I'm a complete idiot.

Will take the Jaguars, even 50?

You must think I'm a complete idi...oh hang on...

You're ok, doobs. I'll let you keep your money (and me keep mine).

[redarmi]

@RJinVegas 77% of the early money on Jags +27 at Denver - according to BetOnline.ag

Totally pointless stat from the most overquoted self promoter in sports betting (RJ Bell that is not Tighty).  He basically just takes whatever books and casinos feed him and makes a living from regurgitating it.  Betonline are pretty good self promoters also but their volume on this will be in the tens of bets at this stage rather than anything more substantial and they don't take sharp action so it is fairly meaningless.  Lets see what happens in a week or so when the big books go up but I would be amazed to see the majority of public bets on the dog at anything close to that number.

[TightEnd]

Totally pointless stat from the most overquoted self promoter in sports betting (RJ Bell that is not Tighty)

Its close though.

[TightEnd]

Strictly Come Dancing First Eviction

I wrote to a learned colleague

Jacklin is 6/4 to be first evicted

He was bottom of judges scoreboard, and next week has to do a Latin

He's 71yo, can't see him doing Latin. Whilst there were genuine attempts to do ballroom technique, nerves and physical inability prevented him looking anything other than poor

Scores from first two weeks plus public votes are aggregated, 1/2 weighting each


Next in the market to be evicted is Feltz at 7/2

The key thing in early evictions is who has a market to vote for you?


Demographics of voters is female 25-60

Some will associate with Feltz

Feltz has a platform every morning on R2 to ask for votes


Jacklin? Golf success in 1970s and Ryder cup in 80s. Now lives in Florida

Absolutely no constituency in the demographic to vote for him and no platform/visibility to appeal for support

Cannot see a single other of the poorer dancers going first. Meaden has Windsor, v v popular pro. hairy biker was comedy, will have a constituency for him etc etc

I think Jacklin is around an 8/11 shot.

Think he will be evicted most of the time here

your thoughts welcome before I have, for me, a big bet please


Learned colleague replied

Hello.

Have done some digging. Tony has a diary in the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/433020/Tony-Jacklin-s-Strictly-Come-Dancing-Diary

So he's doing the Charleston and has been nursing illness. Pros for your bet are it's a fast dance needing swivelling hip action and tons of energy and he won't have any of that. Cons are it's entertaining however bad you are (compare that to a rumba) and he might get some sympathy for his virus.

He has 1,998 twitter followers. Yes. 1,998. Aliona has 60,000 but then Tony's profile picture doesn't have him wearing the tiniest lingerie in a suggestive pose.

As a dancing exercise, I'd boot out Hairy Biker Dave Myers, but he's entertaining so will last four or five weeks probably. Jacklin is a mile behind Feltz as a dancer and will be very likely to be bottom of the leaderboard overall this weekend. Feltz has James Jordan and she will improve.

I think 6/4 is bananas.

I don't see where his fanbase is coming from. The older golf fans who have to watch with their wives won't be voting. Blokes say they love Aliona but they aren't voting for her this early really are they??

Last year, it was Johnny Ball. The public don't mind getting rid of a bad dancer if they aren't laughing at them.

Think you've found a corker, there


I have had a twirly whirly max. If top elder can stomach it, I think this is a good thing

[typhoon13]

Strictly Come Dancing First Eviction

I wrote to a learned colleague

Jacklin is 6/4 to be first evicted

He was bottom of judges scoreboard, and next week has to do a Latin

He's 71yo, can't see him doing Latin. Whilst there were genuine attempts to do ballroom technique, nerves and physical inability prevented him looking anything other than poor

Scores from first two weeks plus public votes are aggregated, 1/2 weighting each


Next in the market to be evicted is Feltz at 7/2

The key thing in early evictions is who has a market to vote for you?


Demographics of voters is female 25-60

Some will associate with Feltz

Feltz has a platform every morning on R2 to ask for votes


Jacklin? Golf success in 1970s and Ryder cup in 80s. Now lives in Florida

Absolutely no constituency in the demographic to vote for him and no platform/visibility to appeal for support

Cannot see a single other of the poorer dancers going first. Meaden has Windsor, v v popular pro. hairy biker was comedy, will have a constituency for him etc etc

I think Jacklin is around an 8/11 shot.

Think he will be evicted most of the time here

your thoughts welcome before I have, for me, a big bet please


Learned colleague replied

Hello.

Have done some digging. Tony has a diary in the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/433020/Tony-Jacklin-s-Strictly-Come-Dancing-Diary

So he's doing the Charleston and has been nursing illness. Pros for your bet are it's a fast dance needing swivelling hip action and tons of energy and he won't have any of that. Cons are it's entertaining however bad you are (compare that to a rumba) and he might get some sympathy for his virus.

He has 1,998 twitter followers. Yes. 1,998. Aliona has 60,000 but then Tony's profile picture doesn't have him wearing the tiniest lingerie in a suggestive pose.

As a dancing exercise, I'd boot out Hairy Biker Dave Myers, but he's entertaining so will last four or five weeks probably. Jacklin is a mile behind Feltz as a dancer and will be very likely to be bottom of the leaderboard overall this weekend. Feltz has James Jordan and she will improve.

I think 6/4 is bananas.

I don't see where his fanbase is coming from. The older golf fans who have to watch with their wives won't be voting. Blokes say they love Aliona but they aren't voting for her this early really are they??

Last year, it was Johnny Ball. The public don't mind getting rid of a bad dancer if they aren't laughing at them.

Think you've found a corker, there


I have had a twirly whirly max. If top elder can stomach it, I think this is a good thing

Your usual well researched analysis, with back up

I'm on

[a.sparrow]

You've convinced my tighty, looking at the market, if you think he should be more of an 8/11 shot to be 1st out, 1/2 to be in the bottom 2 is another max?  2 max bets? On a tv show?  I can hear Tikay grumbling already

[typhoon13]

Sorry, looks like i have shot the 6/4

[a.sparrow]

Sorry, looks like i have shot the 6/4

Greedy bugger lol, Corals have some...

[a.sparrow]

Bah no they haven't

[McGlashan]

Our Dnipro position is looking better ahead of their home tie on Thursday to Fiorentina.

Fiorentina have had a busy run of fixtures playing twice per week in games they couldn't afford to rotate in, have one days less rest before Thursday and have an important away tie on Sunday at Lazio. Dnipro have a far easier run of fixtures and although I cannot read Ukranian they appear to be okay on the injury front.

Fio are already missing Mario Gomez (knee ligament damage) and Rossi (who's been playing as a lone striker) came off injured tonight after 36mins plus a couple of other first . Presumably Rebic will replace Rossi again on Thursday in what will be his first start for the club.

7/5  on a home win or 2-1 for the group outright was backable before tonight but not quite enough to double dip given the great price we got before Keeping our liability small I like Dnipro to win by 2 goals or more as they managed last season versus Napoli.

Suggested bet £20 on Dnipro -1european handicap @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes

[tikay]

Our Dnipro position is looking better ahead of their home tie on Thursday to Fiorentina.

Fiorentina have had a busy run of fixtures playing twice per week in games they couldn't afford to rotate in, have one days less rest before Thursday and have an important away tie on Sunday at Lazio. Dnipro have a far easier run of fixtures and although I cannot read Ukranian they appear to be okay on the injury front.

Fio are already missing Mario Gomez (knee ligament damage) and Rossi (who's been playing as a lone striker) came off injured tonight after 36mins plus a couple of other first . Presumably Rebic will replace Rossi again on Thursday in what will be his first start for the club.

7/5  on a home win or 2-1 for the group outright was backable before tonight but not quite enough to double dip given the great price we got before Keeping our liability small I like Dnipro to win by 2 goals or more as they managed last season versus Napoli.

Suggested bet £20 on Dnipro -1european handicap @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes

Thanks!

Disappointed you can't speak Ukranish.

Details later, busy at mo, but we got on @ 100/30

[tikay]

Strictly Come Dancing First Eviction

I wrote to a learned colleague

Jacklin is 6/4 to be first evicted

He was bottom of judges scoreboard, and next week has to do a Latin

He's 71yo, can't see him doing Latin. Whilst there were genuine attempts to do ballroom technique, nerves and physical inability prevented him looking anything other than poor

Scores from first two weeks plus public votes are aggregated, 1/2 weighting each


Next in the market to be evicted is Feltz at 7/2

The key thing in early evictions is who has a market to vote for you?


Demographics of voters is female 25-60

Some will associate with Feltz

Feltz has a platform every morning on R2 to ask for votes


Jacklin? Golf success in 1970s and Ryder cup in 80s. Now lives in Florida

Absolutely no constituency in the demographic to vote for him and no platform/visibility to appeal for support

Cannot see a single other of the poorer dancers going first. Meaden has Windsor, v v popular pro. hairy biker was comedy, will have a constituency for him etc etc

I think Jacklin is around an 8/11 shot.

Think he will be evicted most of the time here

your thoughts welcome before I have, for me, a big bet please


Learned colleague replied

Hello.

Have done some digging. Tony has a diary in the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/433020/Tony-Jacklin-s-Strictly-Come-Dancing-Diary

So he's doing the Charleston and has been nursing illness. Pros for your bet are it's a fast dance needing swivelling hip action and tons of energy and he won't have any of that. Cons are it's entertaining however bad you are (compare that to a rumba) and he might get some sympathy for his virus.

He has 1,998 twitter followers. Yes. 1,998. Aliona has 60,000 but then Tony's profile picture doesn't have him wearing the tiniest lingerie in a suggestive pose.

As a dancing exercise, I'd boot out Hairy Biker Dave Myers, but he's entertaining so will last four or five weeks probably. Jacklin is a mile behind Feltz as a dancer and will be very likely to be bottom of the leaderboard overall this weekend. Feltz has James Jordan and she will improve.

I think 6/4 is bananas.

I don't see where his fanbase is coming from. The older golf fans who have to watch with their wives won't be voting. Blokes say they love Aliona but they aren't voting for her this early really are they??

Last year, it was Johnny Ball. The public don't mind getting rid of a bad dancer if they aren't laughing at them.

Think you've found a corker, there


I have had a twirly whirly max. If top elder can stomach it, I think this is a good thing

Great analysis.

Maxed myself everywhere I could, but none of them allow much.

Details later but we are on with Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Bet365. Don't be getting excited though, small amounts.

[typhoon13]

Strictly Come Dancing First Eviction

I wrote to a learned colleague

Jacklin is 6/4 to be first evicted

He was bottom of judges scoreboard, and next week has to do a Latin

He's 71yo, can't see him doing Latin. Whilst there were genuine attempts to do ballroom technique, nerves and physical inability prevented him looking anything other than poor

Scores from first two weeks plus public votes are aggregated, 1/2 weighting each


Next in the market to be evicted is Feltz at 7/2

The key thing in early evictions is who has a market to vote for you?


Demographics of voters is female 25-60

Some will associate with Feltz

Feltz has a platform every morning on R2 to ask for votes


Jacklin? Golf success in 1970s and Ryder cup in 80s. Now lives in Florida

Absolutely no constituency in the demographic to vote for him and no platform/visibility to appeal for support

Cannot see a single other of the poorer dancers going first. Meaden has Windsor, v v popular pro. hairy biker was comedy, will have a constituency for him etc etc

I think Jacklin is around an 8/11 shot.

Think he will be evicted most of the time here

your thoughts welcome before I have, for me, a big bet please


Learned colleague replied

Hello.

Have done some digging. Tony has a diary in the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/433020/Tony-Jacklin-s-Strictly-Come-Dancing-Diary

So he's doing the Charleston and has been nursing illness. Pros for your bet are it's a fast dance needing swivelling hip action and tons of energy and he won't have any of that. Cons are it's entertaining however bad you are (compare that to a rumba) and he might get some sympathy for his virus.

He has 1,998 twitter followers. Yes. 1,998. Aliona has 60,000 but then Tony's profile picture doesn't have him wearing the tiniest lingerie in a suggestive pose.

As a dancing exercise, I'd boot out Hairy Biker Dave Myers, but he's entertaining so will last four or five weeks probably. Jacklin is a mile behind Feltz as a dancer and will be very likely to be bottom of the leaderboard overall this weekend. Feltz has James Jordan and she will improve.

I think 6/4 is bananas.

I don't see where his fanbase is coming from. The older golf fans who have to watch with their wives won't be voting. Blokes say they love Aliona but they aren't voting for her this early really are they??

Last year, it was Johnny Ball. The public don't mind getting rid of a bad dancer if they aren't laughing at them.

Think you've found a corker, there


I have had a twirly whirly max. If top elder can stomach it, I think this is a good thing

Great analysis.

Maxed myself everywhere I could, but none of them allow much.

Details later but we are on with Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Bet365. Don't be getting excited though, small amounts.

Tikay let me know if you want some of my 6/4