Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Strictly Come Dancing First Eviction

I wrote to a learned colleague

Jacklin is 6/4 to be first evicted

He was bottom of judges scoreboard, and next week has to do a Latin

He's 71yo, can't see him doing Latin. Whilst there were genuine attempts to do ballroom technique, nerves and physical inability prevented him looking anything other than poor

Scores from first two weeks plus public votes are aggregated, 1/2 weighting each


Next in the market to be evicted is Feltz at 7/2

The key thing in early evictions is who has a market to vote for you?


Demographics of voters is female 25-60

Some will associate with Feltz

Feltz has a platform every morning on R2 to ask for votes


Jacklin? Golf success in 1970s and Ryder cup in 80s. Now lives in Florida

Absolutely no constituency in the demographic to vote for him and no platform/visibility to appeal for support

Cannot see a single other of the poorer dancers going first. Meaden has Windsor, v v popular pro. hairy biker was comedy, will have a constituency for him etc etc

I think Jacklin is around an 8/11 shot.

Think he will be evicted most of the time here

your thoughts welcome before I have, for me, a big bet please


Learned colleague replied

Hello.

Have done some digging. Tony has a diary in the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/433020/Tony-Jacklin-s-Strictly-Come-Dancing-Diary

So he's doing the Charleston and has been nursing illness. Pros for your bet are it's a fast dance needing swivelling hip action and tons of energy and he won't have any of that. Cons are it's entertaining however bad you are (compare that to a rumba) and he might get some sympathy for his virus.

He has 1,998 twitter followers. Yes. 1,998. Aliona has 60,000 but then Tony's profile picture doesn't have him wearing the tiniest lingerie in a suggestive pose.

As a dancing exercise, I'd boot out Hairy Biker Dave Myers, but he's entertaining so will last four or five weeks probably. Jacklin is a mile behind Feltz as a dancer and will be very likely to be bottom of the leaderboard overall this weekend. Feltz has James Jordan and she will improve.

I think 6/4 is bananas.

I don't see where his fanbase is coming from. The older golf fans who have to watch with their wives won't be voting. Blokes say they love Aliona but they aren't voting for her this early really are they??

Last year, it was Johnny Ball. The public don't mind getting rid of a bad dancer if they aren't laughing at them.

Think you've found a corker, there


I have had a twirly whirly max. If top elder can stomach it, I think this is a good thing

Great analysis.

Maxed myself everywhere I could, but none of them allow much.

Details later but we are on with Corals, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Bet365. Don't be getting excited though, small amounts.

Tikay let me know if you want some of my 6/4

Thanks Trev, yes, I'd love some please, I only got on small, & not much at all @ 6/4.

How much - sensibly - can I have? £25 or £50 would be fine.

Sorry brief, busy Next Door at mo.

[typhoon13]

I have got £150 at 6/4

So £25 or £50 is fine

[McGlashan]

Our Dnipro position is looking better ahead of their home tie on Thursday to Fiorentina.

Fiorentina have had a busy run of fixtures playing twice per week in games they couldn't afford to rotate in, have one days less rest before Thursday and have an important away tie on Sunday at Lazio. Dnipro have a far easier run of fixtures and although I cannot read Ukranian they appear to be okay on the injury front.

Fio are already missing Mario Gomez (knee ligament damage) and Rossi (who's been playing as a lone striker) came off injured tonight after 36mins plus a couple of other first . Presumably Rebic will replace Rossi again on Thursday in what will be his first start for the club.

7/5  on a home win or 2-1 for the group outright was backable before tonight but not quite enough to double dip given the great price we got before Keeping our liability small I like Dnipro to win by 2 goals or more as they managed last season versus Napoli.

Suggested bet £20 on Dnipro -1european handicap @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes

Thanks!

Disappointed you can't speak Ukranish.

Details later, busy at mo, but we got on @ 100/30

Nice one Tikay. Looks like the odds are creeping in a little, for anyone not already it then Dnipro to win group E outright at 2-1 might be the best way of backing them.

[tikay]

I have got £150 at 6/4

So £25 or £50 is fine

Very kind of you. Split the difference - £37.50?

Send me Bank Details please, & I'll settle up.

[typhoon13]

I have got £150 at 6/4

So £25 or £50 is fine

Very kind of you. Split the difference - £37.50?

Send me Bank Details please, & I'll settle up.

£37.50s worth booked

Settle when we know the outcome, saves hassle, if thats ok

[MereNovice]

September 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 190
Amount wagered: £7,377.66
Profit/loss: £513.95
ROI: 6.97%

Number of "sports" bet on: 11
Most popular: Horses (88),  Football (28), NFL (24).
Most profitable: Horses (£986.90), Tennis (£118.50),  Baseball (£30.00)
Least profitable: Golf (-£211.91), Boxing (-£120.00), NFL (-£87.31)

Number of tipsters: 24 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 2,293
Amount wagered: £75,862.16
Profit/loss: £3,231.28
ROI: 4.26%

Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular:  Football (577), Horses(540), Golf (221), Cricket(166).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Horses   2,187.70   18,503.71   11.82   540
Football   1,547.27   19,384.51   7.98   577
NFL   581.94   4,139.83   14.06   102
...
Formula1   -487.00   724.00   -67.27   27
Golf   -970.85   6,177.32   -15.72   221
Basketball   -1,048.12   2,763.66   -37.93   61


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 132


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 33

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
WilliamHill   1,625.71   11,974.58   13.58   375
BoyleSports   1,515.60   3,280.45   46.20   84
BetVictor   1,187.80   10,565.00   11.24   319
...
BetFred   -629.62   4,643.00   -13.56   147
PaddyPower   -789.85   6,061.01   -13.03   238
Betfair   -849.43   8,890.65   -9.55   198


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

[BigAdz]

Great bet Mr T.

Wondering about Julian for bottom 2 @ as well. Much smaller beer of c.

Seems very strange, and sent audience quiet with his bizarre antics.

Bruce obvious dislike and again can't see where his support is coming from.

[Tal]

Always good to hear from you, Mere. Great stuff

[tikay]

September 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 190
Amount wagered: £7,377.66
Profit/loss: £513.95
ROI: 6.97%

Number of "sports" bet on: 11
Most popular: Horses (88),  Football (28), NFL (24).
Most profitable: Horses (£986.90), Tennis (£118.50),  Baseball (£30.00)
Least profitable: Golf (-£211.91), Boxing (-£120.00), NFL (-£87.31)

Number of tipsters: 24 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 2,293
Amount wagered: £75,862.16
Profit/loss: £3,231.28
ROI: 4.26%

Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular:  Football (577), Horses(540), Golf (221), Cricket(166).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Horses   2,187.70   18,503.71   11.82   540
Football   1,547.27   19,384.51   7.98   577
NFL   581.94   4,139.83   14.06   102
...
Formula1   -487.00   724.00   -67.27   27
Golf   -970.85   6,177.32   -15.72   221
Basketball   -1,048.12   2,763.66   -37.93   61


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 132


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 33

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
WilliamHill   1,625.71   11,974.58   13.58   375
BoyleSports   1,515.60   3,280.45   46.20   84
BetVictor   1,187.80   10,565.00   11.24   319
...
BetFred   -629.62   4,643.00   -13.56   147
PaddyPower   -789.85   6,061.01   -13.03   238
Betfair   -849.43   8,890.65   -9.55   198


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

1 hour & 6 minutes into the new Month before the monthly figures were Posted.......

Thanks Mere. These generally get very little feedback, but are incredibly revealing, & useful.

I intended to debate a few points about the previous month's figures, but workload just overwhelmed me. I WILL review these.

Thanks again, & I hope all is well in Mere Town.

[tikay]

I have got £150 at 6/4

So £25 or £50 is fine

Very kind of you. Split the difference - £37.50?

Send me Bank Details please, & I'll settle up.

£37.50s worth booked

Settle when we know the outcome, saves hassle, if thats ok

That's perfect, Trev, thank you.

Someone may need to remind me "after the event" to settle up with Trev, as I have no idea when it will be, & I'm sure to forget.

[tikay]

Strictly Come Dancing First Eviction

I wrote to a learned colleague

Jacklin is 6/4 to be first evicted

He was bottom of judges scoreboard, and next week has to do a Latin

He's 71yo, can't see him doing Latin. Whilst there were genuine attempts to do ballroom technique, nerves and physical inability prevented him looking anything other than poor

Scores from first two weeks plus public votes are aggregated, 1/2 weighting each


Next in the market to be evicted is Feltz at 7/2

The key thing in early evictions is who has a market to vote for you?


Demographics of voters is female 25-60

Some will associate with Feltz

Feltz has a platform every morning on R2 to ask for votes


Jacklin? Golf success in 1970s and Ryder cup in 80s. Now lives in Florida

Absolutely no constituency in the demographic to vote for him and no platform/visibility to appeal for support

Cannot see a single other of the poorer dancers going first. Meaden has Windsor, v v popular pro. hairy biker was comedy, will have a constituency for him etc etc

I think Jacklin is around an 8/11 shot.

Think he will be evicted most of the time here

your thoughts welcome before I have, for me, a big bet please


Learned colleague replied

Hello.

Have done some digging. Tony has a diary in the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/433020/Tony-Jacklin-s-Strictly-Come-Dancing-Diary

So he's doing the Charleston and has been nursing illness. Pros for your bet are it's a fast dance needing swivelling hip action and tons of energy and he won't have any of that. Cons are it's entertaining however bad you are (compare that to a rumba) and he might get some sympathy for his virus.

He has 1,998 twitter followers. Yes. 1,998. Aliona has 60,000 but then Tony's profile picture doesn't have him wearing the tiniest lingerie in a suggestive pose.

As a dancing exercise, I'd boot out Hairy Biker Dave Myers, but he's entertaining so will last four or five weeks probably. Jacklin is a mile behind Feltz as a dancer and will be very likely to be bottom of the leaderboard overall this weekend. Feltz has James Jordan and she will improve.

I think 6/4 is bananas.

I don't see where his fanbase is coming from. The older golf fans who have to watch with their wives won't be voting. Blokes say they love Aliona but they aren't voting for her this early really are they??

Last year, it was Johnny Ball. The public don't mind getting rid of a bad dancer if they aren't laughing at them.

Think you've found a corker, there


I have had a twirly whirly max. If top elder can stomach it, I think this is a good thing

BETS PLACED

[tikay]

Our Dnipro position is looking better ahead of their home tie on Thursday to Fiorentina.

Fiorentina have had a busy run of fixtures playing twice per week in games they couldn't afford to rotate in, have one days less rest before Thursday and have an important away tie on Sunday at Lazio. Dnipro have a far easier run of fixtures and although I cannot read Ukranian they appear to be okay on the injury front.

Fio are already missing Mario Gomez (knee ligament damage) and Rossi (who's been playing as a lone striker) came off injured tonight after 36mins plus a couple of other first . Presumably Rebic will replace Rossi again on Thursday in what will be his first start for the club.

7/5  on a home win or 2-1 for the group outright was backable before tonight but not quite enough to double dip given the great price we got before Keeping our liability small I like Dnipro to win by 2 goals or more as they managed last season versus Napoli.

Suggested bet £20 on Dnipro -1european handicap @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes

BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Nikhi Nakhi is due a scan on the extent of his ankle injury.  He is lijely to miss the next game vs Walsall.  He is currently one off the top goal scorers in league 1, so all isn't lost yet.  Hopefully it isn't very serious.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Figures as Produced by Mere Novice overnight

Free Bets: Two to be placed by 3rd October

A loss of £50 to finish the month with 0 for 2 on Horses at Hamilton

Looking at longer term positions

- The Tampa Bay Rays made the play-offs by beating the Rangers with stand out performances from two start players, Pitcher David Price and Evan Longoria. Price pitched his fourth complete game this year, Longoria hit a two-run homer and the Rays won 5-2

They now go to Cleveland on Wendesday for a one off Wild card game

The Rays are into 10-1 for the AL, and will be 4-1ish if they beat Cleveland

- In the NFL The Dolphins lost their unbeaten record. No disgrace in losing to the Saints though, one of the best teams around. The upside for one of our QB bets was shown when leading 38-17, Drew Brees was still throwing for passing yards with five wide receivers/Tight Ends on the field. A more traditional approach would be to run the ball and take time off the clock, takign no risks.

In the end Brees threw for 413 yards

bobby1 has put us onto corking bets here as we have 2,3 and 4 behind Peyton in the QB Passing yards season market

1   Peyton Manning, QB   DEN   1,470   
2   Drew Brees, QB   NO   1,434   
3   Matt Ryan, QB   ATL   1,330   
4   Matthew Stafford, QB   DET   1,262   
5   Ben Roethlisberger, QB   PIT   1,231   
6   Robert Griffin III, QB   WSH    1,202   
7   Philip Rivers, QB   SD   1,199   
8   Matt Schaub, QB   HOU   1,193   
9   Eli Manning, QB   NYG   1,148   
10   Sam Bradford, QB   STL   1,093   

Amongst our season interests today Napoli go to the Emirates for what could be a corker. Napoli have been backed in from 3-1 to win tonight



 

[TightEnd]

Two home runs for 3rd baseman Evan Longoria take the Rays through



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Complete game for one of the best pitchers in baseball, David Price



Fore!



Google images is a wonderful thing

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