Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I don't really have a massive opinion on this total and I could easily mull it and decide Tighty has found a great bet.

 I would say though...

 Unders have a great record in Thursday night games as the teams have less time to prepare and this leads to less offence particularly from the away sides. Since Thursday games have come in there has been a trend of home teams doing well ATS, due to the extra day they get over the team that has to travel, there has been a trend of points being low ATS and there has also been a trend that it is even lower in non-divisional games as the teams do not know each other so well and therefore require greater preparation.

 47 is a pretty high number for a total. Obviously the game is really changing as teams desert the run and offences seem to be favoured in every rule change, but it wasn't that long ago that this was considered a high total.

 47 and 48 are pretty big numbers when betting on totals. Both come up about 3% of the time putting them both in the top 10 most frequent. With Pinnacle now 10/11 over 47 I could easily see this moving to 47.5 and 48 and maybe higher.

 I would suggest this is one that you can't dither on if a bet is done.

 Just found this article btw...

 http://statsbylopez.wordpress.com/2013/09/18/are-they-always-this-ugly-results-of-thursday-night-football-games/

[TightEnd]

 Unders have a great record in Thursday night games as the teams have less time to prepare and this leads to less offence particularly from the away sides. Since Thursday games have come in there has been a trend of home teams doing well ATS, due to the extra day they get over the team that has to travel, there has been a trend of points being low ATS and there has also been a trend that it is even lower in non-divisional games as the teams do not know each other so well and therefore require greater preparation.

this is true, but it works both ways A bad defense has less time to prepare for a good offense it is about to face too

NYG going to Chicago is in this scenario

I think the medium trend is for points totals to rise, for the reasons you suggest (rule changes favouring offense and fashion being for spread offenses not power running being the main two)

[tikay]

Thanks Tighty, Neil.

Presumably Neil's Post explains the seemingly "low" total.

How do Betfair set their line? If I read Oddschecker correctly, their line is 56.5. Why that?

Anyway, for once, I failed to dither.......

[tikay]

Chicago Bears Matches 2013

Points Scored Weeks 1-5: 45-61-63-72-57

New York Giants Matches 2013

Points scored Weeks 1-5: 67-64-38-38-44 (in the 38 point games the giants scored 7 points combined!)

They meet on thursday ngiht football tomorrow


Why might the game be high scoring?

- The Giants are 0-5 and the secondary is particularly suspect

- The Giants OL is inconsistent, struggles to protect Manning and the running game can be non existent. So they throw to their main weapons Nicks, Cruz and to a lesser extent Randle

- The Bears protect Cutler better, and he has Marshall/Jeffrey/Forte and Tight Ends like Bennett now to throw to

- The Bears defense creates scoring opportunities from turnovers. Eli Manning will throw interceptions, Wilson the rb fumbles....

the points total tomorrow?

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-chicago-bears/total-points

What is the market missing?

That not only do you have two teams that will score points on offense and not only can the Giants not defend, but the Chicago defense could score 14+ points. Manning (foo'ball awn your fwone....) has 12 interceptions in 5 games, and the Bears (Tillman etc) are renowned for interceptions, forcing fumbles etc


What is the risk?

Its a grass field in Chicago. Can be a slow track in adverse weather

What is the likely result?

Far more likely to be 60 points plus than below 40 points in my opinion, 47 points is about 7 points below where I would pitch it

Recommendation

Chunkyville Over 47 points 10/11 various bookmakers

Very convincing. Sold. Semi-chunky chunked.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

4.30 notts tommorow FANTASY GLADIATOR Paddy are 8/1 to big

suggest £30 each eway nice each way race with the 17 runners and 4 places

Reasoning (brief)

Did best of those held up last time at Kempton on a meeting were very little made up any ground

John Quinn in excellent form after a quietish season

Conditions fine

Personally make him a 11/2-6/1 shot

Guess what we have for dinner tonight?

[Marky147]

4.30 notts tommorow FANTASY GLADIATOR Paddy are 8/1 to big

suggest £30 each eway nice each way race with the 17 runners and 4 places

Reasoning (brief)

Did best of those held up last time at Kempton on a meeting were very little made up any ground

John Quinn in excellent form after a quietish season

Conditions fine

Personally make him a 11/2-6/1 shot

Guess what we have for dinner tonight?

I wouldn't be sending it to Tesco yet...

[tikay]

4.30 notts tommorow FANTASY GLADIATOR Paddy are 8/1 to big

suggest £30 each eway nice each way race with the 17 runners and 4 places

Reasoning (brief)

Did best of those held up last time at Kempton on a meeting were very little made up any ground

John Quinn in excellent form after a quietish season

Conditions fine

Personally make him a 11/2-6/1 shot

Guess what we have for dinner tonight?

I wouldn't be sending it to Tesco yet...

Nah, it was not THAT bad......

[tikay]

The Paddy Power Slowroll

I received an e-Mail from PP today, but it was addressed to someone with a different UserName, not me.




Important Sportsbook Account Information

Hi feisball

At Paddy Power we offer a wide range of promotions and concessions to our customers.  These include Money Back Specials, Best Price Guaranteed, Free Bets and other bonuses.

Having performed a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you any such promotions, effective Monday 14th October 2013 . This decision has been taken after careful consideration and will not affect your ability to bet on our Sportsbook or any other Paddy Power product.

Kind regards

Paddy Power Customer Service

[tikay]

....but this afternoon, I received another.......


Hi (correct UserName)

Yesterday you may have received an email from Paddy Power that due to a technical error incorrectly displayed your username. We can confirm that the contents within the email were correct, and the changes outlined below are still valid.

At Paddy Power we offer a wide range of promotions and concessions to our customers.  These include Money Back Specials, Best Price Guaranteed, Free Bets and other bonuses.

Having performed a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you any such promotions, effective Monday 14th October 2013 . This decision has been taken after careful consideration and will not affect your ability to bet on our Sportsbook or any other Paddy Power product.

Kind regards

Paddy Power Customer Service


Oooh, bugger.

I was already severely restricted there, so it won't make much difference I guess.

[redarmi]

The Paddy Power Slowroll

I received an e-Mail from PP today, but it was addressed to someone with a different UserName, not me.




Important Sportsbook Account Information

Hi feisball

At Paddy Power we offer a wide range of promotions and concessions to our customers.  These include Money Back Specials, Best Price Guaranteed, Free Bets and other bonuses.

Having performed a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you any such promotions, effective Monday 14th October 2013 . This decision has been taken after careful consideration and will not affect your ability to bet on our Sportsbook or any other Paddy Power product.

Kind regards

Paddy Power Customer Service

I had the same experience......and was slowrolled too.....good job they have a clever marketing department because they are basically shit at everything else.

[tikay]

The Paddy Power Slowroll

I received an e-Mail from PP today, but it was addressed to someone with a different UserName, not me.




Important Sportsbook Account Information

Hi feisball

At Paddy Power we offer a wide range of promotions and concessions to our customers.  These include Money Back Specials, Best Price Guaranteed, Free Bets and other bonuses.

Having performed a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you any such promotions, effective Monday 14th October 2013 . This decision has been taken after careful consideration and will not affect your ability to bet on our Sportsbook or any other Paddy Power product.

Kind regards

Paddy Power Customer Service

I had the same experience......and was slowrolled too.....good job they have a clever marketing department because they are basically shit at everything else.

Ha! I do actually enjoy their advertisements, some of them really are quite amusing.

[Karabiner]

....but this afternoon, I received another.......


Hi (correct UserName)

Yesterday you may have received an email from Paddy Power that due to a technical error incorrectly displayed your username. We can confirm that the contents within the email were correct, and the changes outlined below are still valid.

At Paddy Power we offer a wide range of promotions and concessions to our customers.  These include Money Back Specials, Best Price Guaranteed, Free Bets and other bonuses.

Having performed a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you any such promotions, effective Monday 14th October 2013 . This decision has been taken after careful consideration and will not affect your ability to bet on our Sportsbook or any other Paddy Power product.

Kind regards

Paddy Power Customer Service


Oooh, bugger.

I was already severely restricted there, so it won't make much difference I guess.

I got exactly the same e-mail word for word yesterday from PP.

My account weas already resricted to take out about £100 anyway so I just withdrew my small balance and won't use them again.

[Marky147]

4.30 notts tommorow FANTASY GLADIATOR Paddy are 8/1 to big

suggest £30 each eway nice each way race with the 17 runners and 4 places

Reasoning (brief)

Did best of those held up last time at Kempton on a meeting were very little made up any ground

John Quinn in excellent form after a quietish season

Conditions fine

Personally make him a 11/2-6/1 shot

Guess what we have for dinner tonight?

I wouldn't be sending it to Tesco yet...

Nah, it was not THAT bad......

Racing UK guys both picked that one out before the race, but said it needed the race to be run at a decent pace, and unfortunately it wasn't.

[Marky147]

I got that email on Monday too, so they must be just clicking buttons over at Power !

[tikay]

4.30 notts tommorow FANTASY GLADIATOR Paddy are 8/1 to big

suggest £30 each eway nice each way race with the 17 runners and 4 places

Reasoning (brief)

Did best of those held up last time at Kempton on a meeting were very little made up any ground

John Quinn in excellent form after a quietish season

Conditions fine

Personally make him a 11/2-6/1 shot

Guess what we have for dinner tonight?

I wouldn't be sending it to Tesco yet...

Nah, it was not THAT bad......

Racing UK guys both picked that one out before the race, but said it needed the race to be run at a decent pace, and unfortunately it wasn't.

Ahh, gotcha.

So, we lost because the rest ran too slowly.......