Tips for Tikay

[RickBFA]

Weir has just been sacked.  Not sure how that impacts the bet really.

Would have been better if he was still there without doubt.

Blimey. The power of Fred.

Never mind, we are on now.

Bobby1 will be pleased, he's a big Sheff U fan.

The only saving grace might be United using Chris Morgan as caretaker.

Lets hope they don't appoint anyone permanent until after the weekend.

[bobby1]

As for the bet I think Rick should be auto bet anyway, might be a bit ul here and might make a diff that Weir has gone but we still have the same forwards that are struggling.

[tikay]

Wales are missing 15 players, including their one World Class player Bale and defensive lynchpin Ashley Williams tomorrow at home to Macedonia

Before looking at the markets I went and looked at Macedonia

One of the weaker Balkan countries for sure, and sit just above Wales near the bottom of the qualifying group but they beat Wales 2-1 at home and Bulgaria 2-0 in recent games

So, I go to look thinking anything nicely above 6/4 is a price to look at further

I am frankly astonished to see them 5/2 in a spot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/matches/wales-v-fyr-macedonia/winner

You can't tell me they are that much of a dog to Wales who have conceded 19 goals in qualifying, and lost 6 of their last 9 at home in all competitions even with their better players available


missing : Ashley Williams, Adam Matthews, Ben Davies, Gareth Bale, Danny Gabbidon, Sam Ricketts, Jack Collison, Joe Allen, Jonathan Williams, Joe Ledley, Sam Vokes, Andrew Crofts

How much Rich?

£20 or so?

would really like someone to tell me Macedonia are terrible, and don't back them

In the absence of that, maybe lay Wales to lose £30-40 or so and get the draw as well?

Any further views on this one?

Betfair currently quote 2.6 to Lay.

No bet?


Going, going, gone.....

[redarmi]

You missed the price on that one.

[Doobs]

You missed the price on that one.

Wales 2.7 vs a team 25 places below them in the rankings.  Has it swung too far??

[redarmi]

You missed the price on that one.

Wales 2.7 vs a team 25 places below them in the rankings.  Has it swung too far??

It has to be close but I am already against them and would rather just keep that i think.

[Kmac84]

I would like to recommend a bet for Fred this evening.  I can't make an outstanding case for it in terms of the odds being too far wrong, but there is some value. Further to that I have a slight inside line on this selection in that I do some work for the owner and it's well thought of .

9.32 Sunderland T6 Leeview Shane. Has done some nice trials although finishing last on first competitive outing it wasn't disgraced. 3/1 represents a smallish bet say £25 . I expected it to be around. 9/4 and expect there will be late money on track. ;-)

[typhoon13]

I would like to recommend a bet for Fred this evening.  I can't make an outstanding case for it in terms of the odds being too far wrong, but there is some value. Further to that I have a slight inside line on this selection in that I do some work for the owner and it's well thought of .

9.32 Sunderland T6 Leeview Shane. Has done some nice trials although finishing last on first competitive outing it wasn't disgraced. 3/1 represents a smallish bet say £25 . I expected it to be around. 9/4 and expect there will be late money on track. ;-)

4/1 365

[Tal]

Can't back a dog in Sunderland in black and white stripes.

[tikay]

I would like to recommend a bet for Fred this evening.  I can't make an outstanding case for it in terms of the odds being too far wrong, but there is some value. Further to that I have a slight inside line on this selection in that I do some work for the owner and it's well thought of .

9.32 Sunderland T6 Leeview Shane. Has done some nice trials although finishing last on first competitive outing it wasn't disgraced. 3/1 represents a smallish bet say £25 . I expected it to be around. 9/4 and expect there will be late money on track. ;-)

Thanks Kmac.

Probably best to see how the market proper opens first. At present, we can get a bit of 4/1 with Bet365, as Mr Typhoon as wisely noted.

Will keep any eye on it, and have a nibble pre-race depending on the price.

[tikay]

Roo.........oooohhhh.

[Tal]

Think the England front three have swapped boots before kick off. Adjust the sights, chaps, please.

In other bets, I have only seen the training for the early part of the week (been a long week at work) but, from that, think the bottom 3 from the judges in Strictly will be Julian MacDonald, Dave Hairy Byker and our Ben Cohen. Nut result would be Macdonald winning that group of three after the public vote and the judges might save Hairybloke.

Still a long way to go. Gumede now drifting towards Threesville. She'll go back in in a few weeks, though, as she will be in the top three near enough every week.

[tikay]

Meet Napolioni Nalaga

Click to see full-size image.

He's a Fijian winger. Yes really, a winger. For Clermont Auvergne in France, last season's Heineken Cup Runners Up

The man is unstoppable, nicknamed    "black beast", 'the new Lomu', 'animal"

The Heineken Cup starts again tomorrow

Picking a winner is tough, but the odds are that it will be French. Why would that be? Well there is a financial reason, in that the French league does not operate with a salary cap, as the English league does. This leads to a talent drain over time into the French league. The Irish and English teams manage to compete, and the Welsh, Scottish and Italian teams generally lack the resources to do so, some results aside

Clermont and Toulon, in the Heineken Cup final last year, fielded a total of eight France-qualified starters out of a possible 30. Of these eight players, only four were regulars in the French national team.

Clemont are a decent bet to go deep in the competition this year

Nalaga is I think a good bet for top try scorer, priced 10-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/top-try-scorer

In 2013, Nalaga played 25 games for Clermont in both the 2012–13 Top 14 season and the 2012–13 Heineken Cup leading the try-scoring tally in both with 13 and 6 tries respectively, taking his overall tally to 80 tries in 115 games for Clermont.

I quote

"On 27 April, Nalaga's solo try in the Heineken Cup semi-final against Munster helped his team reach the Grand Final of the Heineken Cup where he scored a try but it wasn't enough to defeat the new champion, Toulon. He ended the tournament with 8 tries scoring 5 tries in pool play and a try each in the quarter final, semi final and the grand final"

Give him the ball, he scores tries. Clermont do so

In the French top 14 so far Clermont are only 5th but in 9 games have scored 239 points, marginally behind Toulon and Montpellier who lead the division but indicative of plenty of strike power



Clermont's group is ok. Harlequins have had a poor start to the season, so the London club do not have momentum, while the Scarlets have lost their most lethal weapon, George North. Racing Metro are the other team in the group and they have spent many euros on recruiting the likes of Johnny Sexton but are not the team Clermont are, yet

The easiest group is the Toulouse one where they and Saracens are joined by the weakest Irish Province Connacht and Italy's Zebre. The likes of Hosea Gear and Maxim Medard on the wing for Toulouse may be decent cover bets because of the pool games against the weaker sides possibly leading to high try tallies. I am less confident that Toulouse qualify ahead of Saracens and go deep in the competition though

 
Recommendations

The Fijian Beast-Animal-New Lomu, £30 win 10-1 Ladbrokes Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Hosea Gear £10 win 16-1 Coral Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Maxim Medard £5 e/w Coral 28/1 Heineken Cup Top try scorer

Tighty's cover bets off to a flyer.

Not half time yet in the Toulouse game, & two tries for Huget, & one for Medard.

Off we go.......

[Tal]

For those who take interest in such matters (there's a lot of viewers of this thread after all...), I have interest in Fiona Fullarton, Abbey Clancy and Susanna Reid. Punting-wise anyway. If Cohen survives this week and shows a bit of improvement in his back movement, I might be tempted at a few quid on him >80/1. These are prices that will go in, as the weaker people get voted off, so I can either push the HOLD button or COLLECT button.

Going to end up backing six horses and somehow find myself snorkel deep in a novelty market...

[tikay]

Rooooooooooooooooooooooooooooneyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy