Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Think we could use if to back Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle in March.  

Hurricane Fly has been the best hurler for a few years, but is now 9 and that is old for the best hurdler.  In addition he is not far ahead of the best novices and they could all improve past him.  The New One has already been out and was hugely impressive, but I think horses pretty much always get overrated if they do this first time out.  His opposition may just have been underprepared and they think Rock on Ruby wasn't 100%.  I think 4/1 is likely a false price.  My Tent or Yours was rated 2 pounds higher than ours by Timeform but he didn't appear to have much resolution going up the Cheltenham hill last year.  I know he redeemed himself after, but it leaves a doubt in my mind.

On to Our Conor, he thrashed everything in last year's Triumph.  Triumph winners have a bad record in the Champion, but this one is clearly exceptional.  Combined this with an ageing champion and no older rivals that were as good as him, I think we have a bet.  The price on offer is the same as Betfair, though it is possible you could get better if you asked.

Free bet, Our Conor Champion Hurdle 5/1.

Ugh, I feel really bad now, all that work for nothing, sorry.

Hopefully it won't be wasted, and we will get on in due course.

Bobby1 is probably on this already, his lad is named Conor.....!

[Doobs]

Think we could use if to back Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle in March.  

Hurricane Fly has been the best hurler for a few years, but is now 9 and that is old for the best hurdler.  In addition he is not far ahead of the best novices and they could all improve past him.  The New One has already been out and was hugely impressive, but I think horses pretty much always get overrated if they do this first time out.  His opposition may just have been underprepared and they think Rock on Ruby wasn't 100%.  I think 4/1 is likely a false price.  My Tent or Yours was rated 2 pounds higher than ours by Timeform but he didn't appear to have much resolution going up the Cheltenham hill last year.  I know he redeemed himself after, but it leaves a doubt in my mind.

On to Our Conor, he thrashed everything in last year's Triumph.  Triumph winners have a bad record in the Champion, but this one is clearly exceptional.  Combined this with an ageing champion and no older rivals that were as good as him, I think we have a bet.  The price on offer is the same as Betfair, though it is possible you could get better if you asked.

Free bet, Our Conor Champion Hurdle 5/1.

Ugh, I feel really bad now, all that work for nothing, sorry.

Hopefully it won't be wasted, and we will get on in due course.

Bobby1 is probably on this already, his lad is named Conor.....!

Have backed it with mine, just didn't need the write up.  Back to crowd control.

[horseplayer]

Suggestion for the Free Bet - one of Scott's dogs for the overall in the Olympian?  I have read a few articles by him through seeing links on here and feel the bets are often well thought out and researched.  Should provide a good sweat and possible return and may even create a trading position.

It feels to me like some of these FGS are just a stick a pin in it. Sorry to those suggesting such bets but its not very often these are good value bets.  The E/W bets however are clear value when the maths have been worked out.  

Sadly, it looks like I allowed the Free Bet to expire, see my previous Post.

Scott's suggestions are always first class, we follow him blind when he finds something strong enough for a Recommend, but he only does so rarely, with "top" value suggestions. This applies to Greyhounds, & MMA stuff.

Can't say I agree with your (Win only) FGS comments. They are big prices, so increased variance, but I'd say we are well in profit on them. The EW ones, of course, or the ones we do, are almost printing money, but the ideal scenarios are far & few between, & we get badly restricted.

Kmac i said in my post it was not necessarily a value bet! I have not backed it myself at the time nobody seemed keen/willing to stick up a free bet that was expiring today. Worst case scenario we lose a free bet which would be silly, as it is we have a probably at best ok bet at a fair price.

Doobs i cant really see the our connor bet shortening before another free bet comes available? Should still be around until at least the trials start properly.

[horseplayer]

could not find anything for the free bet tikay better than what i have suggested

did however spot a couple of cypriots i have had very small bets on in the lazio game

Georgios Vasiliou at 28/1 with 365 eway

Marios Stylianou at 33/1 with 365 eway

both play in attacking midfield roles (from what i can gather) and the cypriots are not quite as bad as odds for this match suggest (started fine in this)

both best price, unlikely both play if so money back

had very small bets here

OK, will look it up & get on.

Those FGS things on the Lazio game are just thinking out loud, not recommendations, right?

correct not recs just players a bit out of line i have had a small interest on (very small)

[tikay]

Think we could use if to back Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle in March.  

Hurricane Fly has been the best hurler for a few years, but is now 9 and that is old for the best hurdler.  In addition he is not far ahead of the best novices and they could all improve past him.  The New One has already been out and was hugely impressive, but I think horses pretty much always get overrated if they do this first time out.  His opposition may just have been underprepared and they think Rock on Ruby wasn't 100%.  I think 4/1 is likely a false price.  My Tent or Yours was rated 2 pounds higher than ours by Timeform but he didn't appear to have much resolution going up the Cheltenham hill last year.  I know he redeemed himself after, but it leaves a doubt in my mind.

On to Our Conor, he thrashed everything in last year's Triumph.  Triumph winners have a bad record in the Champion, but this one is clearly exceptional.  Combined this with an ageing champion and no older rivals that were as good as him, I think we have a bet.  The price on offer is the same as Betfair, though it is possible you could get better if you asked.

Free bet, Our Conor Champion Hurdle 5/1.

Ugh, I feel really bad now, all that work for nothing, sorry.

Hopefully it won't be wasted, and we will get on in due course.

Bobby1 is probably on this already, his lad is named Conor.....!

Have backed it with mine, just didn't need the write up.  Back to crowd control.

rofling here at "crowd control". Kids must be the greatest.

[Doobs]

Suggestion for the Free Bet - one of Scott's dogs for the overall in the Olympian?  I have read a few articles by him through seeing links on here and feel the bets are often well thought out and researched.  Should provide a good sweat and possible return and may even create a trading position.

It feels to me like some of these FGS are just a stick a pin in it. Sorry to those suggesting such bets but its not very often these are good value bets.  The E/W bets however are clear value when the maths have been worked out.  

Sadly, it looks like I allowed the Free Bet to expire, see my previous Post.

Scott's suggestions are always first class, we follow him blind when he finds something strong enough for a Recommend, but he only does so rarely, with "top" value suggestions. This applies to Greyhounds, & MMA stuff.

Can't say I agree with your (Win only) FGS comments. They are big prices, so increased variance, but I'd say we are well in profit on them. The EW ones, of course, or the ones we do, are almost printing money, but the ideal scenarios are far & few between, & we get badly restricted.

Kmac i said in my post it was not necessarily a value bet! I have not backed it myself at the time nobody seemed keen/willing to stick up a free bet that was expiring today. Worst case scenario we lose a free bet which would be silly, as it is we have a probably at best ok bet at a fair price.

Doobs i cant really see the our connor bet shortening before another free bet comes available? Should still be around until at least the trials start properly.

No problem, have been busy, was going to let yours stand but when I saw it was 12/1 elsewhere, thought I'd better post something.  I have been thinking about it for a couple of days.

Sure we should be able to wait, even if people begin to realise that Rock on Ruby wasn't 100%.

[BigAdz]

Think we could use if to back Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle in March.  

Hurricane Fly has been the best hurler for a few years, but is now 9 and that is old for the best hurdler.  In addition he is not far ahead of the best novices and they could all improve past him.  The New One has already been out and was hugely impressive, but I think horses pretty much always get overrated if they do this first time out.  His opposition may just have been underprepared and they think Rock on Ruby wasn't 100%.  I think 4/1 is likely a false price.  My Tent or Yours was rated 2 pounds higher than ours by Timeform but he didn't appear to have much resolution going up the Cheltenham hill last year.  I know he redeemed himself after, but it leaves a doubt in my mind.

On to Our Conor, he thrashed everything in last year's Triumph.  Triumph winners have a bad record in the Champion, but this one is clearly exceptional.  Combined this with an ageing champion and no older rivals that were as good as him, I think we have a bet.  The price on offer is the same as Betfair, though it is possible you could get better if you asked.

Free bet, Our Conor Champion Hurdle 5/1.

Tough choice of race. I must admit I was in the "must back it" camp straight after the race.

Two concerns. I would almost want 3 points for it just to get there, even the toughest miss the Fest. That leaves me with 2-1 on him being better than the rest, if you get my jist. Mullins said the other day, HF has never wintered so well and he is stronger than ever, and thats just for starters.

Concern two, and I think it was your rule , wasn't the optimum price for a freebie 8-1 or above?

[Doobs]

Think we could use if to back Our Conor for the Champion Hurdle in March.  

Hurricane Fly has been the best hurler for a few years, but is now 9 and that is old for the best hurdler.  In addition he is not far ahead of the best novices and they could all improve past him.  The New One has already been out and was hugely impressive, but I think horses pretty much always get overrated if they do this first time out.  His opposition may just have been underprepared and they think Rock on Ruby wasn't 100%.  I think 4/1 is likely a false price.  My Tent or Yours was rated 2 pounds higher than ours by Timeform but he didn't appear to have much resolution going up the Cheltenham hill last year.  I know he redeemed himself after, but it leaves a doubt in my mind.

On to Our Conor, he thrashed everything in last year's Triumph.  Triumph winners have a bad record in the Champion, but this one is clearly exceptional.  Combined this with an ageing champion and no older rivals that were as good as him, I think we have a bet.  The price on offer is the same as Betfair, though it is possible you could get better if you asked.

Free bet, Our Conor Champion Hurdle 5/1.

Tough choice of race. I must admit I was in the "must back it" camp straight after the race.

Two concerns. I would almost want 3 points for it just to get there, even the toughest miss the Fest. That leaves me with 2-1 on him being better than the rest, if you get my jist. Mullins said the other day, HF has never wintered so well and he is stronger than ever, and thats just for starters.

Concern two, and I think it was your rule , wasn't the optimum price for a freebie 8-1 or above?

As I said, I have been busy, 5/1 that should be 5/1 is better than 8/1 that should be 10/1.  Sometimes I just don't have the time for optimum. 

I think your 50/50 on it making the festival is a little pessimistic, it has probably an 85% or so chance of making it going by TTFs every year.

I love Hurricane Fly, and have made money from him, and I read what Mullins said, but he just can't still be getting better?  He just can't have long left at the top.  Obviously in my Ten To Follow again.

[aaron1867]

Ladbrokes standout for Defoe first goalscorer @ 9/2

[Doobs]

Ladbrokes standout for Defoe first goalscorer @ 9/2

Betfair 7/2.  Home team even more useless than the away team.  Do this Tikay.

[Doobs]

Ladbrokes standout for Defoe first goalscorer @ 9/2

Betfair 7/2.  Home team even more useless than the away team.  Do this Tikay.

BetFred also 9/2 will lay you £22 even if they hate you. 

[Doobs]

Ladbrokes standout for Defoe first goalscorer @ 9/2

Betfair 7/2.  Home team even more useless than the away team.  Do this Tikay.

BetFred also 9/2 will lay you £22 even if they hate you. 

Dubai has nobbled Bet365!

[aaron1867]

I just got my first ever max at Ladbrokes on that bet.

£9

[the sicilian]

A little puzzled that Bristol City ( winless in 21 and propping up the division ) are 11/8 faves away to improving Carlise who have lost 1 in 7 new manager and a couple recent deese signings..Missing something?

[Chompy]

Ladbrokes 11-2 Act Of Charity, 1.40 Donny tomo. Lolprice, get as much as they'll allow.