Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

I'm going to regret this...

Who?

Yeah right.....you blew your posh cover at the weekend pal!

[Tal]

I'm going to regret this...

Who?

Yeah right.....you blew your posh cover at the weekend pal!

Hand on heart, I don't recognise the name. Anyway, it's only Tikay who thinks I'm posh even though only one of us turned up to Wimbledon dogs in a blazer...

[Tal]

Oh Chastity Dingle off of Emmerdale! Had you down for a Charity man, Adz

Nah, it's all about Cain

[tikay]

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to play the Miami Dolphins tomorow night on Thursday Night football on NFLN and SkySports

We have the Bengals to win the NFCN and AFC and the Dolphins to win the AFC East

One division bet is looking good, one less so

AFC North   W   L   T   Win %
Cincinnati    6    2    0    .750
Baltimore    3    4    0    .429
Cleveland    3    5    0    .375
Pittsburgh 2    5    0    .286

AFC East   W   L   T   Win %
New England    6    2    0    .750
New York Jets    4    4    0    .500
Miami    3    4    0    .429
Buffalo    3    5    0    .375

The Bengals are favourites, 3 points on the spread to win their fifth game on the trot. This is a trap game though, as Miami have one of the best records as a home dog in recent years

Typically the Dolphins in recent years have had a stout defense and have struggled to create offense. This has been slowly changing, but unconvincingly at times with a running game that remains below par and the jury still out on Tannehill the Quarterback.

The idea I wanted to promulgate was to back the Bengals to score over 23.5 points at Evens, SportingBet

Why is this?

In eight games this season the Bengals have scored 197 points, averaging 24 points a game, but this raw data masks a big improvement in offensive performance in the last three weeks with 27,27 and 49 points scored

QB Andy Dalton is often seen, correctly on the evidence of the past two seasons, as the Bengals caveat but the fact remains that he has a wealth of attacking options to choose from

- AJ Green leads the AFC with 734 receiving yards and is in the Megatron/Bryant category
- Because Green draws double teams, the WR on the other side Marvin Jones benefits. He has 7 TDs so far this season
- At RB Giovani Bernard is a thread both rushing and receiving out of the backfield
- Both TightEnds Eifert and Gresham are solid options, with nearly 300 receiving yards each

Now that the offense has started to click, they should be in most games capable of exceeding 23.5 points

On the other side the Dolphins have conceded 167 points in 7 games, average 24 points a game.

Again though, the last few games tells a better story for the bet, conceding more than 22 points in each of the last five games. The Dolphins rank 21 of 32 in Defense in the NFL, a far cry from the performance of recent seasons


As back up the Bengals, who have one of the better defenses in the league are banged up on defense, losing Leon Hall (their number 1 cornerback) and Rey Mualuaga (their starting linebacker) to injuries. This significance of this is that the Bengals may have to score more points to win tomorrow

Looking at the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cincinnati-bengals-at-miami-dolphins/total-cincinnati-bengals-points

Sporting Bet over over 23.5 at evens, ie without the bookmaker margin normally built into spread sprices. This is a price worth taking because the significant pivot points in NFL spreads are in multiples of 3 and 7....common scores are 21,24,27 etc

So the difference between taking Evens over 23.5 and 10/11 over 23 as is offered elsewhere is miniscule. A difference between 23.5 and 24 is potentially more significant

To conclude, I do not see much downside below 23 points (three touchdowns and a field goal typically). I see some upside. This type of asymmetric risk is rare in points spreads. Before I looked, I had Bengals points priced at +/- 27

Recommendation

Cincinnati Bengals over 23.5 points at Miiami Dolphins £50 Evens SportingBet, 31st October

Very nice, thanks Rich.

The price is now 10/11, not Evens, but still fine, but I upped the stake to £55.

This is, I assume, a November bet?


BET PLACED

[Marky147]

No idea Adz tbh, big jump handicaps not my thing at all. Neil C the man for the job.

I'm more interested in Paddy Power's 7-1 about Rylan Clark taking down I'm a Celebritah. He was a 4-1 with Ladbrokes in March to be in the jungle; if he goes in he wins. End of. 4-6 would be valoo.

A bit of research dug up that he flew out to LA yesterday. US X Factor maybe?

Thinking about it a bit more, I would prefer to back Joey Essex for this.

Also, surely Gazza can't be going in?

The guy has enough problems living in the UK, so not sure he would last too long in the jungle!

Is Joey still playing the "shocked that London is the capital" card?

I just recall him getting f all votes when I weighed in on him for Splash, so maybe not as popular as you think?

Top heavy men wise at the top. Talking of which I see Lucy Pargetter is down. I can see her doing well, especially if she washes a lot.

Different target audiences imo.

I'd like to see her do well in it, if she ends up going.

[Tal]

Bale scores. Is it a league game?

[Snowball]

Bale scores. Is it a league game?

yes

[Tal]

Bale scores. Is it a league game?

yes

He got a second but someone at the Bernebeu is on our bet, because Real had a penalty and Ronaldo got the ball

[JaffaCake]

Bale scores. Is it a league game?

yes

He got a second but someone at the Bernebeu is on our bet, because Real had a penalty and Ronaldo got the ball

Feared the worst when I saw he had two in 20-odd mins and they went on to score 7 but he didn't get any more, coulda been worse for the bet

[JaffaCake]

NBA season has started, I try and lay off betting it at the start as new teams have players settling in.

One interesting point tho, Michael Carter-Williams, one of our shouts for Rooke of the Year (and the one I told u I really likes at the dogs!) is playing for Philly (worst team in the league) against Miami (best) in a televised game. At ht Philly are 2 points up and MCW has 11 points, 7 assists, 6 steals and 2 rebounds.....ridic figures in your first game.

Remember most rookies don't even get to play at the start of the season but 76ers are so bad they've thrown him in and he's starring (which is why we bet him). Early doors but lovely start

[JaffaCake]

MCW finishes with 22/12/9/7 as worst team in league beats best....not a bad start, his 9 steals an all-time record in a first game

edit oioi
Earvin Magic Johnson ‏@MagicJohnson 15m
I just got done watching the guy I think will be the Rookie of The Year, Michael Carter-Williams of the 76ers.

[a.sparrow]

It may be a little early but i'm just doing some research into saturday's football, so far i've found some each way goal scorer value in the man city vs norwich game.  May be of interest to fred, and if not then other readers.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-norwich/first-goalscorer

Obvious choice is Aguero here, hes in good scoring form and should start.  He was rested today and Dzeko started up front with Jovetic.  Jovetic was replaced by Negrado after 8 minutes, i didn't see the game so not sure if this due to an injury but this is what i am assuming.  He is also the the most likely penalty taker for city.  I have a feeling Toure is due a goal, but sticking to the maths then Aguero is a really solid bet here imo.

[Marky147]

MCW finishes with 22/12/9/7 as worst team in league beats best....not a bad start, his 9 steals an all-time record in a first game

edit oioi
Earvin Magic Johnson ‏@MagicJohnson 15m
I just got done watching the guy I think will be the Rookie of The Year, Michael Carter-Williams of the 76ers.

Got a score on with 888 before I went to bed, and they're still 14/1. See that 'youwin' are 12/1 too, but Patrick have wielded the axe!

[BigAdz]

Nice start for our Jordan.

-4 after round 1, in tied 4th.


Shiv on just started but -1 after 5, solid.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £516.45

Outstanding Bets £2883.56

Free bets to use, ONE William Hill by Saturday

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=30

A profit of just under £13 yesterday when the sixes bet in Nagpur came in with a quarter of the match to spare. We also have an over £400 profit to book on Bailey on 2nd November, after the completion of the last game of the series

Elsewhere yesterday

Napoli won at Fiorentina 2-1 and have won 8 out of 10 to be second in Serie A after ten games, a way behind 9 out of 9 Roma. We have Napoli 8-1 to win Serie A

Bale scored 2 as Madrid hammered Sevilla 7-3, including a Ronaldo hat-trick. We need him to score under 18 goals this season


Tonight long term thread bets the Bengals and Dolphins meet in Miami in Thursday night NFL

The WGC and Challenge Tour Golf events are underway for us to follow over the weekend

As we have heard, the NBA season has begun and we have two rookie of the year bets to follow