Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Been looking at the golf this week

Northwestern Mutual World Challenge is on 5th to 8th and is Tiger Woods tournament for his Foundation.

18 players consisting of last 4 major winners, defending champ, 11 from current top world players and 2 special invites.

Tiger Woods is Fav at 5/2 with almost everyone and was 3-1 earlier in the week and when you look at the numbers you can see why:

1st in 01,04,06,07 and 11 and 2nd in 00, 02, 03 and 10

So he obviously loves the course and loves winning this tournament especially as he donates his winnings to his foundation (£1million this year for the winner)

I would say 5/2 is not bad a price for an 18 runner field for Tiger, particularly with those types of stats. However I think there maybe someone at a bigger price that represents a more interesting bet.

Greame McDowell is the defending Champ and also won this in 2010. It is a particular tournament that he is passionate about as it sort of helped propel his career after the 2010 win. I was reading an article that said because of that win he  
Become 49th in the world which got him into the US Open in the year that he went on to win it, thus changing his life forever, hence he views this tournament quite passionately. As well as this it has been announced that it is moving venue next year so it would be fitting if he could win the tournament 2 years running while it is the last time it is staged here.

In 2013 he has won 3 tournaments in April ( RBC Heritage) May (Volvo World Matchplay) and July (Alstom open de France) and his latest result was end October with a 3rd place in WGC - HSBC Championship.

I can't say there has been an error in his price because most go 12 or 10-1 with 1 firm offering 9's and the 12 is 0.5 off Betfair (although most of the field are bigger on BF than with the bookies) However I think he is going to be really up for this tournament and with 4 places paid at 1/5 I'm going with McDowell at 12-1 to bring home the bacon.

I'd like to recommend this one for Fred at £20 e/w

Over to the Elders to chew the fat, even if it's decided this is not a bet for Fred I think it would be a mistake to not have an interest in this market as although highly competitive top 4 on an 18 runner field looks nice.

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/northwestern-mutual-world-challenge/winner

Edit: http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/northwestern-mutual-world-challenge/first-round-leader

Woods is a tasty 11/2 with for 1st round leader most others go. 9/2 or less, Recommend £20.

I think this is definitely a calling bobby1 thread.  The price looks like it is very much adjusted to his particular record in this tournament.  The question I can't answer is whether it is adjusted too far or too little.  I am sure bobby1 has a better feel for this.

I'd also say fifth first 4 doesn't seem that generous when he is 12/1.  It is probably much better for those at bigger prices. 

I am blindly on Jordan Spieth on Betfair.  Even though he may be rusty, can't resist 29/1 in a 18 runner field.  Because of the probability he is going to be rusty, I can't really recommend it for thread though. 

[Micko]

Twigg scores first, wd Kmac.
Why did Twigg leave Rovers?Did he get a good job up North?

No love for New Zealand:( evens all gone anyway.

Was to do with his wife AFAIK.
I think also that Portadown were the only team up in the north to offer him a full time wage.

I always thought Fenlon would have taken him to Hibs.

I knew of him at schoolboy level, he played with Celtic boys but was playing for his School at under 18 when he was only 12. I believe the move to Derby set him back a good few years.

His Mrs lives up in the north and they have a young child so I presume that's why he moved north.

Portadown always paid big wages in the Il so obviously that's why he signed there.

[rinswun]

Just a word on Jordan Spieth. Whilst he is undoubtedly a significant talent and looks set to have an outstanding career ahead, there are a couple of stats which lead me to believe he's due a regression this year. The primary of these is the fact that he lead the tour in putts holed from 25ft plus this year. This is not a repeatable stat. I'm on my phone and not the laptop but off the top of my head (I'm a golf geek) Webb Simpson and Ben Crane have both lead the tour in this stat in the past three years and then finished outside of the top 100 the next year. He basically gained approx two shots per tournament above the average last year which is hugely significant. Allied with this, he also had a hole out percentage from around the greens that was significantly higher than average. Although a good short game is repeatable, there is always an element of luck with hole outs/chip ins and i feel he holed more than his fair share this season.

[The Camel]

Blackpool 3 red cards.

Derby evens to beat them on Saturday. Coral, Paddy or bwin.

It can't last.

Suggest £50.

[horseplayer]

keith beat me to it

[tikay]

Blackpool 3 red cards.

Derby evens to beat them on Saturday. Coral, Paddy or bwin.

It can't last.

Suggest £50.

BET PLACED

[Omm]

Watching BBC news and they are doing a piece on a lad called Jack Topping, he is going for xmas number 1 and is currently. 50-1 with Corals and 40-1 others (16-1 b 365). The big thing in his favour is that his song is the music for the new save the children advert which will be shown on TV all over xmas thus giving him massive exposure. Bit of a banzai but got to be worth a £ for the interest.

Just though I'd give Fred regulars a heads up. Good luck Jack Topping.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/10485828/Why-choirboy-Jack-Topping-has-the-Xmas-factor.html

[tikay]

Watching BBC news and they are doing a piece on a lad called Jack Topping, he is going for xmas number 1 and is currently. 50-1 with Corals and 40-1 others (16-1 b 365). The big thing in his favour is that his song is the music for the new save the children advert which will be shown on TV all over xmas thus giving him massive exposure. Bit of a banzai but got to be worth a £ for the interest.

Just though I'd give Fred regulars a heads up. Good luck Jack Topping.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/10485828/Why-choirboy-Jack-Topping-has-the-Xmas-factor.html

Ha!

How can we not bet that @ 50/1? And we all LOVE Christmas Songs, obv.


BET PLACED

[millidonk]

Watching BBC news and they are doing a piece on a lad called Jack Topping, he is going for xmas number 1 and is currently. 50-1 with Corals and 40-1 others (16-1 b 365). The big thing in his favour is that his song is the music for the new save the children advert which will be shown on TV all over xmas thus giving him massive exposure. Bit of a banzai but got to be worth a £ for the interest.

Just though I'd give Fred regulars a heads up. Good luck Jack Topping.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/10485828/Why-choirboy-Jack-Topping-has-the-Xmas-factor.html

Needs to up his twitter game. Only got 238 followers, also read he was 6/1 at one stage.. Hopefully a big celeb will tweet their endorsement of him if the advert doesn't take off. I don't recall seeing it yet and if I have it can't have been memorable.

Jack Topping22 hours ago
I've met lots of great people including John Bishop at the Royal Variety Performance, Gary Barlow, Olly Murs, Robbie Williams, Harry Hill and I loved meeting Shane from Westlife at the Decca Christmas Carol Concert. It has been amazing!

As Barlow, Robbie and Murrs are also in the running for #1 I doubt they will be helping his cause.

I actually like Lilly Allen's chances. 7/1 with laddies and 11/1 best with Corals. Just hope it isn't Xfactor..

[tikay]

Just a word on Jordan Spieth. Whilst he is undoubtedly a significant talent and looks set to have an outstanding career ahead, there are a couple of stats which lead me to believe he's due a regression this year. The primary of these is the fact that he lead the tour in putts holed from 25ft plus this year. This is not a repeatable stat. I'm on my phone and not the laptop but off the top of my head (I'm a golf geek) Webb Simpson and Ben Crane have both lead the tour in this stat in the past three years and then finished outside of the top 100 the next year. He basically gained approx two shots per tournament above the average last year which is hugely significant. Allied with this, he also had a hole out percentage from around the greens that was significantly higher than average. Although a good short game is repeatable, there is always an element of luck with hole outs/chip ins and i feel he holed more than his fair share this season.

I am not sure I agree with all of that, but no matter - it's Posts like that which make this thread so good.

Analysing stuff like that would never have crossed my mind.

Personally, just "gut instinct", I think he may be the exceptiojn to the rule, something very special indeed, but that's just my view & I don't have any hard facts or stats one way or the other. Proper ice-cream thinking really.

[tikay]

Watching BBC news and they are doing a piece on a lad called Jack Topping, he is going for xmas number 1 and is currently. 50-1 with Corals and 40-1 others (16-1 b 365). The big thing in his favour is that his song is the music for the new save the children advert which will be shown on TV all over xmas thus giving him massive exposure. Bit of a banzai but got to be worth a £ for the interest.

Just though I'd give Fred regulars a heads up. Good luck Jack Topping.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/10485828/Why-choirboy-Jack-Topping-has-the-Xmas-factor.html

Needs to up his twitter game. Only got 238 followers, also read he was 6/1 at one stage.. Hopefully a big celeb will tweet their endorsement of him if the advert doesn't take off. I don't recall seeing it yet and if I have it can't have been memorable.

Jack Topping22 hours ago
I've met lots of great people including John Bishop at the Royal Variety Performance, Gary Barlow, Olly Murs, Robbie Williams, Harry Hill and I loved meeting Shane from Westlife at the Decca Christmas Carol Concert. It has been amazing!

As Barlow, Robbie and Murrs are also in the running for #1 I doubt they will be helping his cause.

I actually like Lilly Allen's chances. 7/1 with laddies and 11/1 best with Corals. Just hope it isn't Xfactor..

Robbie has to be a certainty, surely? He's awesome.

[millidonk]

Watching BBC news and they are doing a piece on a lad called Jack Topping, he is going for xmas number 1 and is currently. 50-1 with Corals and 40-1 others (16-1 b 365). The big thing in his favour is that his song is the music for the new save the children advert which will be shown on TV all over xmas thus giving him massive exposure. Bit of a banzai but got to be worth a £ for the interest.

Just though I'd give Fred regulars a heads up. Good luck Jack Topping.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/10485828/Why-choirboy-Jack-Topping-has-the-Xmas-factor.html

Needs to up his twitter game. Only got 238 followers, also read he was 6/1 at one stage.. Hopefully a big celeb will tweet their endorsement of him if the advert doesn't take off. I don't recall seeing it yet and if I have it can't have been memorable.

Jack Topping22 hours ago
I've met lots of great people including John Bishop at the Royal Variety Performance, Gary Barlow, Olly Murs, Robbie Williams, Harry Hill and I loved meeting Shane from Westlife at the Decca Christmas Carol Concert. It has been amazing!

As Barlow, Robbie and Murrs are also in the running for #1 I doubt they will be helping his cause.

I actually like Lilly Allen's chances. 7/1 with laddies and 11/1 best with Corals. Just hope it isn't Xfactor..

Robbie has to be a certainty, surely? He's awesome.

50/1. Mortgage job I think..

[tikay]

Watching BBC news and they are doing a piece on a lad called Jack Topping, he is going for xmas number 1 and is currently. 50-1 with Corals and 40-1 others (16-1 b 365). The big thing in his favour is that his song is the music for the new save the children advert which will be shown on TV all over xmas thus giving him massive exposure. Bit of a banzai but got to be worth a £ for the interest.

Just though I'd give Fred regulars a heads up. Good luck Jack Topping.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/10485828/Why-choirboy-Jack-Topping-has-the-Xmas-factor.html

Needs to up his twitter game. Only got 238 followers, also read he was 6/1 at one stage.. Hopefully a big celeb will tweet their endorsement of him if the advert doesn't take off. I don't recall seeing it yet and if I have it can't have been memorable.

Jack Topping22 hours ago
I've met lots of great people including John Bishop at the Royal Variety Performance, Gary Barlow, Olly Murs, Robbie Williams, Harry Hill and I loved meeting Shane from Westlife at the Decca Christmas Carol Concert. It has been amazing!

As Barlow, Robbie and Murrs are also in the running for #1 I doubt they will be helping his cause.

I actually like Lilly Allen's chances. 7/1 with laddies and 11/1 best with Corals. Just hope it isn't Xfactor..

Robbie has to be a certainty, surely? He's awesome.

50/1. Mortgage job I think..

I want to mary Robbie, I truly love him.

[Tal]

I assume the duet album between Tikay and Robbie would be called Swing When You're Swonging?

[tikay]

I assume the duet album between Tikay and Robbie would be called Swing When You're Swonging?

Or Angles?