Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

I hereby endorse all four of Ant's bets for the max stake, £1.2k investment, no rebuffs.

Stuey Gray is out to 1/2 after last night's mudbath. Any thoughts on a possible cover horsey?

just wait imo

None of the others inspire me and Mandaric has stopped interviewing anyone else, for now anyway

Just give him the bleeding job please Milan

A win against Bournemouth should seal the deal at the weekend, got some luck with that call of last night

[horseplayer]

beware the injured ice dancer?

[BigAdz]

I'm a little busy so haven't read all the DOI stuff but have seen Bracken mentioned a few times, there is a chance he is not fully fit at the moment so should probably keep that in mind.

I have backed Quinn a few times in the last week or so and think the front two will be hard to beat.

Your right bobby, he broke his ankle last month, but he is still training and no mention of him pulling out.

yes, I don't think there is a chance of him pulling out and he should get through the initial stages anyway but obviously ice skating on a recently broken ankle against good skaters that are fully fit could be giving away a hefty advantage if there is any lingering niggle there.

Love a bit of insider info!  N1 bobby!

[bobby1]

beware the injured ice dancer?

tbf if my record of getting against injured golfers on here is anything to go by he will win in a gentle foxtrot.

[RobS]

Palace are the best

The 13/5 about a home win v Newcastle definitely would have been a bet, as the best price now is 12/5 and that creates a 101% book (although oddschecker history doesn't show any price bigger than 12/5?).

As for the season long stuff, just like everyone other than Ant I don't know enough about Palace to comment. Although must remember all dead cats stop bouncing eventually.

Sherwood told Spurs TV he wanted to go all out for revenge for the 0-3. Probably shouldn't have taken Adebayor off for Holtby then at 1-0.

Cant judge him on one game but the first thing i heard him shout last night was

"fucking get stuck in lads" after about 90 seconds

tbf Big sam then followed up with a similar response a minute later

Hardly a modern highly rated coach type

Uncle Tim wouldn't use such language

[Omm]

Im a Celeb get me out of her

this sounds like a show i may well watch

It would be the best show yet 

[Omm]

I'm a little busy so haven't read all the DOI stuff but have seen Bracken mentioned a few times, there is a chance he is not fully fit at the moment so should probably keep that in mind.

I have backed Quinn a few times in the last week or so and think the front two will be hard to beat.

Your right bobby, he broke his ankle last month, but he is still training and no mention of him pulling out.

yes, I don't think there is a chance of him pulling out and he should get through the initial stages anyway but obviously ice skating on a recently broken ankle against good skaters that are fully fit could be giving away a hefty advantage if there is any lingering niggle there.

Love a bit of insider info!  N1 bobby!

My wife describe Ray Quinn for me. A guy that looks like Eddie Munster, refers to himself in the third person "Quinny" and didn't even win XFactor.

Made me chuckle.

[JaffaCake]

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)

Thanks for this Jaffa. Can you keep reminding us when these are on please ?

Two more tonight Sonour, will take a look later, but first it's confession time....I thought we won the first bet at Indiana +3.5...it was actually +3 and we pushed! This is quite ridic, we were 11 up at half time and 16 up at one point in the second half, meaning we had 13 and 18 points in hand. We were still 8 up late in the 4th, so 10 points in hand, and somehow Miami sneaked it. Even at the last minute, Indiana tried a three pointer where their player was defo fouled by LBJ but there was no call. Was sure we couldn't lose, Miami hadn't been 3 up all game until the last second, and Indiana had a chance to score after that, they had no way of extending. What a travesty.

Anyway, will be on later with two coins to flip, if teeks wants to guess them first, it may well influence me on going t'other way

[Marky147]

Hills going 5/1 on Big Bucks to be unbeaten 2013/14 season (at least 1 run)

Any thoughts from our equine experts?

[Chompy]

Dancing On Ice voting seems pretty random...

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s101/dancing-on-ice/realitybites/a311784/dancing-on-ice-voting-results-in-full.html

[Doobs]

Hills going 5/1 on Big Bucks to be unbeaten 2013/14 season (at least 1 run)

Any thoughts from our equine experts?

3/1 for the Stayers on Betfair.  Even if we assume that he wins that, that makes him 4/6 to win both his other races given he has won the stayers.  That feels tight, particularly as they may go easy on him first time out and he may face a fit At Fishers Cross and Celestial Hero.  I know the order of the races isn't going to be stayers first, but I think you can reverse it for the example.

There is an obvious chance he could come out, win and not race again, but that is hard to quantify (maybe 5% of the time he wins despite an injury, and another 5 or 10% he injures himself after winning and before Cheltenham)

The price doesn't look great to me, think it is probably about right, or a little short.

[sonour]

The PP NBA offer is on again tonight, and for the next couple.

Tonight's game is Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat, the two top sides in the east, so it's likely to be close (and likely to trigger the money back as points in the last 10 secs happen much more in close games, where they foul opponents to stop the clock.

No price up yet as Lebron, Miami's star, is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. I'll be very surprised if he doesn't play tbh, seems fine. They lost to the Pacers last week and don't play them again for months so it's got some importance. Indiana also have the better record, so tie-breakers may come into it in the playoffs way down the line.

I'll be online and follow all the guys on twitter who will have Lebron news when it comes, stay tuned!

(tbh with the concession whichever side we pick is a value bet I reckon, but they won't price it while he's uncertain by the looks of it, tho this train wifi is patchy so might be there somehwhere)

Thanks for this Jaffa. Can you keep reminding us when these are on please ?

Two more tonight Sonour, will take a look later, but first it's confession time....I thought we won the first bet at Indiana +3.5...it was actually +3 and we pushed! This is quite ridic, we were 11 up at half time and 16 up at one point in the second half, meaning we had 13 and 18 points in hand. We were still 8 up late in the 4th, so 10 points in hand, and somehow Miami sneaked it. Even at the last minute, Indiana tried a three pointer where their player was defo fouled by LBJ but there was no call. Was sure we couldn't lose, Miami hadn't been 3 up all game until the last second, and Indiana had a chance to score after that, they had no way of extending. What a travesty.

Anyway, will be on later with two coins to flip, if teeks wants to guess them first, it may well influence me on going t'other way

Tikay got +3.5 and I got +4. Hardly seems right when it was your rec.

[Doobs]

Dancing On Ice voting seems pretty random...

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s101/dancing-on-ice/realitybites/a311784/dancing-on-ice-voting-results-in-full.html

Hayley seems to run a bit better on public votes than Ray.  I didn't watch the series, but looking at those Hayley Voting figures, it seems the judges didn't care much for the public vote when dumping her nearest rival.  I wouldn't know how to adjust for that though.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s101/dancing-on-ice/news/a211595/doi-releases-weekly-vote-results.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_on_Ice_(series_4)

Ray was the best one ever according to Jane Torville, and his scores seem to reflect this.

I don't really have much of a view on the prices.  I bet on the swings, bet when someone beats Betfair or when I see something that I think isn't reflected in the price.   If Chompy thinks it is fine, it is probably fine though. 

[Chompy]

Been watching a bit on youtube. Quinny seems the better (ice) dancer to me, but Hayley has a public-pleasing personality. Just had a bit on at 4/1 for interest.

The surly Scotchman, recced at 7/2 and rebuffed, dotted up in SPOTY.

Andy Murray: 401,470

Leigh Halfpenny: 65,913

AP McCoy: 57,854

Mo Farah: 51,945

Sir Ben Ainslie: 48,140

Chris Froome: 37,343

Hannah Cockroft: 26,151

Christine Ohuruogu: 13,179

Justin Rose: 9,833

Ian Bell: 5,626

Total: 717,454

Anyone any thoughts on 2014? Half-interested in Rory at 25/1 and Rosey at 66/1. Obv it's a World Cup year, so no English footballers have any chance.

[Doobs]

£50 on Sophie Ellis Bextor to win Strictly at 4/1 with BetVictor or Boyles.  Sure to be able to trade out at shorter.  Big charge going on, she went 9/2 yesterday (sigh at missing Coral's e/w).  Gogogo

Groan......

Oddly, just minutes ago, a well-renowned SCD expert & devotee PM'd me to tell me to get on.......Abbey Clancy!

I've not got a clue what is going on here.

Anyway, I missed the 4/1 with BMU, 7/2 now, but got £50 @ 4/1 with Boylesports.

BET PLACED

You could probably bet both.  Abbey bigger than Betfair too.

You could just put up a £50 lay at 4.2 on Betfair now.  If it gets taken fine, we have a freebie, if it doesn't we have Sophie at a big price.  Win, win.  I am not laying mine off FWIW.  

Don't get the hostility, reality TV is where the big edges are.  Next people will be grouching at the Hills offers.  

Might even volunteer to do Sunday's round up if she wins.   There isn't much to report on the average Sunday.

The bamboozlement continues.....

We have done that, £50 @ 4.2 LAY, of Sophie Ellis Bextor. It is currently NOT MATCHED


BET PLACED

I am sure this has got matched, so we are left with £2.50 to win £40, which is nice.  The market has been really strange this week.  Sophie went right in to 5/2 (I laid a bit at that), and now she is right out above 4/1 again.  

I have discovered our horse is carrying an injury which isn't great.  I still think anything over 4/1 is a bet, and the Susanna price still looks too short.  I am not sure if Abbey or Sophie is the most likely, but betting whoever is biggest can't be so bad.  Can't believe you consulted someone else before doing that piece.

FWIW after all Ant's Palace talk, I think the best punt is likely to be the one he doesn't mention.  BetVictor are 100/1 on the handicap wotha  51 point start.  They only need 50 points for us to clean up.  If you are going to punt, do it in style  Before you go crazy, it is probably worth mentioning that Palace have only beaten sides near the bottom, I think they need to be beating a few higher up before I get excited about my handicap bet.