Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

I thought looked great at first, the to win to nil bet, what are chances man c play a weakened side vs such a weak team? They conceded vs Leicester. Lescott has just returned to the side as demichellis was out(for the Liverpool game anyway) and hasn't had many starts at all recently. How dodgy is joe hart these days?!

They did indeed let a goal in against Leicester, but they was away and their away form is definitely not so good & I can't see them putting a weakened team out, they will for sure, be putting a full strength team out here with how the league is at the moment. Not sure about Hart really, I can't even see Palace threatening the goal at all, personally, but this doesn't mean I am saying they will not score.

However, I've just checked and the price is now 31/40 not sure my £90 moved the market :/

[Ant040689]

Protect yourself with a bit of Delaney and Chamakh anytime with bwin, don't want you getting hurt.

[aaron1867]

Protect yourself with a bit of Delaney and Chamakh anytime with bwin, don't want you getting hurt.

Yes, because they have both been prolific this season & are only playing a mid table Premier League team

[tikay]

Hi teeks, hope u had a fine festive feast.

As far as I know, the MBS special is on every BT Sport game in December. You're right, yesterday was the classic push as u said, two wins, two losses, one money back. But we got the free £10 bet for making five NBA bets after a chat with live chat. Have placed two tonight, like the first one more than second:

Houston -7.5 v Memphis
Portland -4 v LA Clippers

GL

Maybe I missed these, Jeff, but I don't see either of these games listed on PP.

The only game currently with the MBS logo is Phoenix Suns @ GSW.

Hi mate, they were last night. Amazing how good the line setters are. The bigger bet won, by half a point, the second one was exactly -4, so was a push.

Tonight I've backed Golden State -6...I know this is probs too late for u

Well done Jeff, that one got home, GSW won 115-86, but you were right, it was wayyyyy too late for me.

[tikay]

I am going to put up another questionable bet up for 29th, it's a slightly debatable one too....

Man City v Crystal Palace

City are 1/7 to beat Palace on Sunday, it looks like it should be business as usual, but I really think that along with winning the match, they will win to nil. City are the best team at home, playing fantastic and are up against a team they should be beating relatively comfortably. Even though Palace are picking up, I can't see them creating that many chances against the joint best home defence in the league, whilst being the second worst away scorers.

I also add that I do bet on the "to win to nil" market pretty often and you generally get 5/6 stuff on 1/3-1/4 shots.

Comparison on the market to show value:

Arsenal 2/9 v Cardiff and to win to nil are 5/6 - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-cardiff-city/to-win-to-nil

City (1/7) v Palace and to win to nil are 5/6 - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-crystal-palace/to-win-to-nil

I suggest £30 on Man City to beat Palace "to nil" at 5/6 with Victor

Thoughts required from the football lads, please.

These prices are presumbly a correlation of the Outright price, which I would have thought was almost certainly spot on.

I would have thought 5/6 was probably a good price, ool with what it should have been.

[tikay]

I thought looked great at first, the to win to nil bet, what are chances man c play a weakened side vs such a weak team? They conceded vs Leicester. Lescott has just returned to the side as demichellis was out(for the Liverpool game anyway) and hasn't had many starts at all recently. How dodgy is joe hart these days?!

They did indeed let a goal in against Leicester, but they was away and their away form is definitely not so good & I can't see them putting a weakened team out, they will for sure, be putting a full strength team out here with how the league is at the moment. Not sure about Hart really, I can't even see Palace threatening the goal at all, personally, but this doesn't mean I am saying they will not score.

However, I've just checked and the price is now 31/40 not sure my £90 moved the market :/

4/5 remains available with BetVictor, which is a millitadge better than 31/40.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-crystal-palace/to-win-to-nil

[tikay]

Tighty/Mere.

I'll try & get the BETS thread updated this morning, I was unable to do so yesterday.

[jakally]

These prices are presumbly a correlation of the Outright price, which I would have thought was almost certainly spot on.

My instinct when I saw it was this, but it maybe a good spot.

This is a small sample size, but.....
City have won 16 out of 18 home League games in 2013, 11 of these have been wins to nil.
Of the 7 'fails', 5 were against top 6 teams (Liverpool x 2, ManU, Arsenal and Everton), and one was at home to Norwich in the last game of the season after Mancini had been sacked.

5/6 is still available with BV, which surely can't be a bad bet.

[tikay]

Daily Report

Profit on day       £178
Profit on month  £786.92


Yesterday was a Mary Poppins day, practically perfect in every way. Chat and banter in abundance and to cap it all a healthy profit.  4 bets completed with 3 of them showing a profit. The only loser being a horse for an amount that was the tiddle side of tiddlearse, and  a loss of £2.

Pride of place goes to horseplayer for putting up Malky Mackay to lose his job, £20 at a lovely 5-1. We will have to wait and see who Mr Tan gets for a job with all the security of one of those guys in red tops who beam down to the alien planets with Kirk.

We opposed Nadal in the tennis and saw him lose to his compatriot Ferrer in straight sets. £20 at 3-1 binked us another £60.

Our final bet of the day was supporting Wasps to beat Newcastle at rugby, by more than 1 point. The bet was never in danger after a 10-0 first half performance in the wet. Another £20 banked.

Without a report yesterday we failed to give kudos to Rubbish giving us Ospreys to beat Scarlets. As he said in his propodsal, away wins between all Welsh matches are hard to come by in the Pro12 but he gave us this one.

The days bets were completed with 3 bets on Sundays US football coutersy of Mr Tightend.


Mr T has often enquired about the machinations of my mind. This is an impossible thing to answer but I will give you all an insight. Whenever Fred has a particularly good day or a winning month there is a picture that immediately comes to mind and won't disappear. Those of a certain age, over 40, may recall the image if I was to tell you it was the most famous scene from the best ever rock opera.

At first you may not see what I am getting at but swap the baked beans for these

Then swap Anne Margaret for him

Superb work hector, really good, though I'm a bit miffed to be replaced by Ann Margaret, whoever she is or was. I think you should consider doing the Report maybe more often, you have what I would call a natural bent, & a mind that moves in mysterious ways. How else would Mary Poppins gain entrance to a punting thread?

I had not reaslised we went 3 from 4 yesterday, with the sole loser being a £2 tiddle.

Three x £20 bets realised an extraordinary £180 profit, which, if we could just repeat once or twice per week, would be all we need. We don't have to bet huge sums to bank tidy profits. Am chuffed to bits with that. 

The collective understanding of value on this thread has come a loing way in 23 months, especially for me.

We now have a ROI of 4.87 over a sample size of 2,547 bets. If I had the time to spend a little more effort here, adjusting bet sizes, seeking advice & feedback, interrogating stuff more thoroughly, being more careful with getting the vey best prices every time, I'm sure we could do very much better. Add in the fun we have, which is a freeroll, & we do pretty good I think.   

[tikay]

Just a quick reminder to everyone of something I mentioned at the start of December.

The spready is creaking under the strain of so much data, accumulated over 23 months, & sub-divided every which way. This has become a great analytical tool, but it is getting a bit clunky to operate.

Once midnight on 31st December passes, Mere will be archiving large chunks of the spready, but it will all be preserved, & be viewable. Nothing will be erased, it will just be presented a little differently.

[tikay]

Tighty/Mere.

(Also maldini).

Plesse note that he bet we had on Dwayne Smith with Paddy Power has been refunded, see below......



27/12/2013
04:15

Bet Refunded

Top Perth Scorchers Tournament Runscorer - Dwayne Smith @ 4/1

£5.48

We also had the same bet with Bet365, for £6, but that bet remains "unsettled" in my 365 Account.

No idea if Bet365 will refund, or whether they ought to.

Anyway, £5.48 goes back in the kitty.

[Doobs]

WH going 3/1 Bobsworth in 2:55 Leop tomorrow from 8:30. Any good?

I wouldn't be getting up for it

Lol

Meh,  haven't got any choice.

Obv bet with the mobile free bet if 2nd on top.  Seems a big price regardless.

Thread should do £25 that after 8.30 on Hills mobile, together with
Kentucky Hyden 2.00 Chepstow at 2/1 and
Oscar Rock 1.45 Newbury at 5/2.

Bump

[tikay]

WH going 3/1 Bobsworth in 2:55 Leop tomorrow from 8:30. Any good?

I wouldn't be getting up for it

Lol

Meh,  haven't got any choice.

Obv bet with the mobile free bet if 2nd on top.  Seems a big price regardless.

Thread should do £25 that after 8.30 on Hills mobile, together with
Kentucky Hyden 2.00 Chepstow at 2/1 and
Oscar Rock 1.45 Newbury at 5/2.

Bump

Ooh, well reminded, thanks. One is on one's way.

[TL900]

newcastle 3/1 at home to arsenal? seems v big at first glance

[tikay]

Can I suggest we do Tighty's NFL bets for Sunday sooner rather than later ?


Arizona Cardinals +1.5 v San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys +6.5 v Philadelphia Eagles

Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 v Indianapolis Colts

Bet Recommendation

I've just noticed that due tio a misclickage incident, I placed the Arizona Cardinals bet TWICE, 6 minutes apart.

The 2nd bet has to remain off-thread, in the Misclick file (which will need archiving work soon......).

Given my record with misclicks, the latest being Sire de Grugy @ 4/1, for £25, this looks the bet of the week.


 
27/12/2013 15:11 GMT

593717038

33.00 GBP

Open

Single

(63.00 GBP)

US Football

San Francisco @ ArizonaPoint Spread - HandicapArizona Cardinals

10/11

+1

 

 



27/12/2013 15:05 GMT

593715725

33.00 GBP

Open

Single

(63.00 GBP)

US Football

San Francisco @ ArizonaPoint Spread - HandicapArizona Cardinals

10/11

+1