Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

No Sir David or Sir Andy this New Year.

[maldini32]

Big Bash Update

As has been previously mentioned the Smith bets a near certain non runner.

Our other outright bet, Hales topscorer is going so so. He's on 65 after 2 matches and is behind Finch who's leading the way with 128 having played 3 matches, he will miss a few games once the ODI's start up v England tho.

Tomorrow's a big day for the Hales bet imo as they're playing at Adelaide and small square leg boundaries so potential for a big score. Could really do with a 50 plus score and that will put us back in the hunt.

They play a total of 8 group games and a potential for 2 more if they qualify for semis and finals.

 The game is on at 9.40 in the morning our time.

I'm debating whether to stick up the over 9.5 sixes as a bet (5/6). A century to be scored (8/1) is interesting because as mentioned short boundaries and a couple of v good players. Hales and Marsh are the obvious contenders for the century bet.

[tikay]

Have backed Miami -2.5 tonight. Only 2 days of the PP offer left. Lebron is game time decision, hopefully he plays and thus looks a really good bet. Denver are pretty ropey at the mo. No tiddling teeks!

Thanks Jeff.

We tiddled (Restricted).

BET PLACED

[maldini32]

Fiorentina to finish top 3 in Serie A.

They are currently placed 4th 3 points behind 3rd placed team Napoli and a further 8 points behind 2nd placed Roma. Ignore Juve best squad and too far ahead.

Fiorentina play the best football in the league and have the current top scorer in Rossi. They've been unlucky with they marquee signing Mario Gomez being inured for most of the season, however he is due to come back in the next 2 weeks.

In the January transfer window they are looking to buy Domenico Criscito from Zenit, Italian international left back to help shore up the backline.

This is a really good bet as I can see them staying top 4 and an excellent chance of making the top 3. Murmurs in Italy that Higuain could be leaving Napoli for Chelsea which would obviously be huge for this bet. This is just rumourville tho.







http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/italy-serie-a/top-3-finish

Edit:

Just seen you can get 11/2 on Fiorentina qualifying for next years Champions league group stages with BWIN. Does not make sense, BWIN go 5/2 for top 3 finish and 11/2 to qualify for champions league group stages. Top 2 qualify automatically and 3rd place team has to play a qualifier in Serie A.

Make it £60.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

[JaffaCake]

Lebron plays tonight, think the Miami Heat -2.5 line is lovely with the PP concession for those that can...

[JaffaCake]

Good bet....let's hope we get there: Sportsbook.com ® ‏@Sportsbook_com 1m
#LeBron in starting lineup for Miami, who are -5 at Denver.

[tikay]

Lebron plays tonight, think the Miami Heat -2.5 line is lovely with the PP concession for those that can...

The line was pretty accurate.....Miami Heat won 97-94.

We got Heat @ -2.5, so we got over the line. We had £22 @ 10/11.



31/12/2013
00:03

Bet Stake

Miami Heat At Denver Nuggets - Miami Heat @ 10/11 (-2.5)

-£22.00

Well done Jeff.

[tikay]

whoops not that one this one

Click to see full-size image.

VERSUS

Good work John, thanks, forgot it was Tuesday already.

[tikay]

Big Bash Update

As has been previously mentioned the Smith bets a near certain non runner.

Our other outright bet, Hales topscorer is going so so. He's on 65 after 2 matches and is behind Finch who's leading the way with 128 having played 3 matches, he will miss a few games once the ODI's start up v England tho.

Tomorrow's a big day for the Hales bet imo as they're playing at Adelaide and small square leg boundaries so potential for a big score. Could really do with a 50 plus score and that will put us back in the hunt.

They play a total of 8 group games and a potential for 2 more if they qualify for semis and finals.

The game is on at 9.40 in the morning our time.

I'm debating whether to stick up the over 9.5 sixes as a bet (5/6). A century to be scored (8/1) is interesting because as mentioned short boundaries and a couple of v good players. Hales and Marsh are the obvious contenders for the century bet.

For those interested in having a bet on this, I believe it starts at 08.40 UK, NOT 0940.

Hurry hurry.

[tikay]

Tighty/Mere.

I believe the Darts bet on "Over 9 averages of 100 or more" is now officially dead.

We had £40 @ 5/4, so if I am correct, we need to get rid of this one today, in the December numbers. We ran well actually, the Recommended bet was £75 as I recall.

I don't think we had a single winner in the PDC Worlds, either in the outrights, or sub-markets, but we kept the stakes sensible, & no great damage was done.

We've got some great Darts experts here, I think we just ran bad. Pretty sure we were on Peter Wright at a huge price LAST year, & we backed him once or twice this year, too.

[tikay]

Big Bash Update

As has been previously mentioned the Smith bets a near certain non runner.

Our other outright bet, Hales topscorer is going so so. He's on 65 after 2 matches and is behind Finch who's leading the way with 128 having played 3 matches, he will miss a few games once the ODI's start up v England tho.

Tomorrow's a big day for the Hales bet imo as they're playing at Adelaide and small square leg boundaries so potential for a big score. Could really do with a 50 plus score and that will put us back in the hunt.

They play a total of 8 group games and a potential for 2 more if they qualify for semis and finals.

 The game is on at 9.40 in the morning our time.

I'm debating whether to stick up the over 9.5 sixes as a bet (5/6). A century to be scored (8/1) is interesting because as mentioned short boundaries and a couple of v good players. Hales and Marsh are the obvious contenders for the century bet.

Thanks for the Update.

I decided to have a small wager on "Over 9.5 sixes", £30 @ 5/6 with Wm Hill.

BET PLACED

[tikay]

So far on the NFL Season bets the scores on the doors are

6 bets have completed, £575 was wagered and £986 has been returned


The play off line up has now been decided, and two bets are outstanding

- Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC £50 at 16-1

- Philadelphia Eagles to win the Superbowl £20 at 50-1

We are therefore assured of profitability from this sub-set of 8 season bets


The play off line ups are as follows

AFC

Kansas City at Indianapolis

San Diego at Cincinnati

Byes: New England and Denver

The Bengals beat the Ravens last night to go undefeated in the regular season at home. They missed out on a bye because the Patriots beat the Bills.

Unfortunately for us, as I think San Diego is probably the worst opponent for the play-off wildcard candidates, the Cheifs rested 20 of 22 starters and San Diego beat them narrowly to pip Pittsburgh to the sixth seed

So the wild card round is this weekend and if Cincinnati win on Sunday (6pm on SS) they face a trip to New England.

Tough, but not impossible as the Bengals have a talented roster on both sides of the ball. As identified five months ago though, the big question will be how QB Andy Dalton performs on the road when it really matters.  

The Bengals are currently third favourites behind Denver and New England

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc/winner


NFC

Philadephia beat Dallas 24-22 to hit the post season

New Orleans at Philadephia

49ers at Packers

Byes: Carolina, Seattle

The Eagles have caught a break here, as the Saints are far less effective a team outside a dome, as their record shows. I think the Eagles will beat the Saints. The 49ers/Packers will be a superb game as Rodgers is fit again and the 49ers are right back in form with their offensive weapons fit again

Anyway, if Philly do win on late Saturday they go to Carolina and avoid the away team graveyard of Seattle. Again, by getting the number 3 seed they caught a break


Odds would have us believe that Denver will play Seattle in the Superbowl. I am resolute in thinking that this will NOT be the case

The play offs are all about who gets hot in January

I could make a good case for San Diego in the AFC, and Philly or the Packers in the NFC to make the Superbowl. All three very dangerous teams.

The prices of these three to win it? 50-1, 20-1, 22-1 in a twelve horse field and all are available at 1/3 each way

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/superbowl/winner

Just wanted to pick up on the enboldened sentence.

We have had another very good NFL season whatever happens between now & Superbowl, & we did equally well last season.

NFL is our third most profitable sport, despite the season being, essentially, just 4 or 5 months.

For Sports on which we have placed over 100 bets, NFL has the highest ROI, too, 12.15% at present.

Well done all the NFL lads.

[tikay]

Yeovil v Watford

Yeovil 3/1 to beat Watford on NYD & using some very simple stuff here, but Yeovil hammered Watford in the same fixture a few weeks ago, shows they are more than capable of beating them. Perhaps neither team is playing well, but 3/1 on a team to win against a team they have already trashed, think it could possibly be a bet.

I do say though I am more than aware that it has happened where the previous result has been turned on it's head & it might happen this time!

However it's 3/1 in one place & Suggest £15

Not great on this one Aaron.
If you want a home dog punt, then Millwall (v Leicester) is a slightly better one.
Millwall are a better home side than Yeovil, and Watford & Leicester are similarly rated away.
31/10 available with BV, which maybe a bit of value.

Not a recommend, yet. If price drifts, which it may do, then I could put it up.

Oi, Giblin, stay away from the PLO8 DYM's Next Door, they are MY territory. And pension.

Understood?

[Tal]

Paulinho News.

Our man - yes our man - was injured in the game against Stoke and is expected to be out for up to four weeks with ligament damage. A little while ago, Spurs tried to sign Charlie Adam from Blackpool and it almost went through on deadline day. Since then, it's like he blames our club for not getting the deal done, as he's twice delivered horror tackles on Bale and now this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10543606/Tottenham-Hotspur-to-lodge-complaint-over-Stoke-City-midfielder-Charlie-Adam-following-challenge-on-Paulinho.html

He's one of those players I'm convinced should be booked before they go onto the pitch. Saves time.

Anyway, rant over. Paulinho won't be scoring any league goals for the next four games or so.

[tikay]

Superbowl Banzais

It seems that BetFred have hit me with the Restriction stick, & will only permit me modest sums on those three Teams.

Nothing to do on Philly, we are on

There is definitely some value in Play off outsiders though, there is every year

This might be in individual game spreads or in ante post


San Diego and the Packers were my current thoughts as dangerous teams that have backed into the play-offs a bit unexpectedly and could easily make it, against most consensus views

Do we want to have a small wager on San Diego & Packers @ Banzai prices? I placed a small EW wager on both yesterday, & I'm happy to keep them off-thread for myself, but if you think Fred should have them, let me know please.

We have Philly already.