Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Paulinho News.

Our man - yes our man - was injured in the game against Stoke and is expected to be out for up to four weeks with ligament damage. A little while ago, Spurs tried to sign Charlie Adam from Blackpool and it almost went through on deadline day. Since then, it's like he blames our club for not getting the deal done, as he's twice delivered horror tackles on Bale and now this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10543606/Tottenham-Hotspur-to-lodge-complaint-over-Stoke-City-midfielder-Charlie-Adam-following-challenge-on-Paulinho.html

He's one of those players I'm convinced should be booked before they go onto the pitch. Saves time.

Anyway, rant over. Paulinho won't be scoring any league goals for the next four games or so.

Well that has come as a total surprise......

[tikay]

I have a bet on Taylor(I think...cant be bothered to check) to be top scorer for Ipswich(I think).

Has to be a Fred recommend, even if we didnt do it.

Anyone know how its doing? and if badly, anyone prepared to own up?

It was Chompy who recommended a MAX on this bloke. I just rebuffed, as per. 

[Tal]

Paulinho News.

Our man - yes our man - was injured in the game against Stoke and is expected to be out for up to four weeks with ligament damage. A little while ago, Spurs tried to sign Charlie Adam from Blackpool and it almost went through on deadline day. Since then, it's like he blames our club for not getting the deal done, as he's twice delivered horror tackles on Bale and now this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10543606/Tottenham-Hotspur-to-lodge-complaint-over-Stoke-City-midfielder-Charlie-Adam-following-challenge-on-Paulinho.html

He's one of those players I'm convinced should be booked before they go onto the pitch. Saves time.

Anyway, rant over. Paulinho won't be scoring any league goals for the next four games or so.

Well that has come as a total surprise......

You have to trust my judgment on these things. Remember I tipped the Titans after hours of research

[tikay]

Ha not sure I fancy doing the report but will volunteer to do it next time im wrong if fred allows me a couple of maxes if I'm right, in fairness newc went off 5/2 solid which I thought was ridiculous so can be wrong and right at same time

Umm, I think we'll pass on that. I'm already girding my loins for Cheltenham, & presumably having the max on every bloody runner in the Sun Alliances Chase. Please note I will be offline on Sun Alliance day.

[aaron1867]

Tony I'd appreciate you not bumping my awful bet suggestions!

[tikay]

Paulinho News.

Our man - yes our man - was injured in the game against Stoke and is expected to be out for up to four weeks with ligament damage. A little while ago, Spurs tried to sign Charlie Adam from Blackpool and it almost went through on deadline day. Since then, it's like he blames our club for not getting the deal done, as he's twice delivered horror tackles on Bale and now this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10543606/Tottenham-Hotspur-to-lodge-complaint-over-Stoke-City-midfielder-Charlie-Adam-following-challenge-on-Paulinho.html

He's one of those players I'm convinced should be booked before they go onto the pitch. Saves time.

Anyway, rant over. Paulinho won't be scoring any league goals for the next four games or so.

Well that has come as a total surprise......

You have to trust my judgment on these things. Remember I tipped the Titans after hours of research

Ahh yes, so you did. Sort of.

[tikay]

Sprinter Sacre 10/11 NRFB with VC, surely a bet for £50 max you can do for Champ Chase in March.

Sky 11/10 without the concession is the only one better. Laddies 1/2 with no concession.

If he is fit, he wins. If he is not 100% he probably won't run.

Not my usual sort of bet but for a nifty I cant refuse, unless I'm missing something.

Is it £50 max at that price?

3.  The maximum refund per horse per customer is £50 in Promo Cash. If you back the same selection in more than one race at antepost level only your first bet on that selection is eligible for a refund. BetVictor will determine what your first bet is by using the lowest bet ID number on your bet slips. This information is clearly displayed in your account when you select an open bet.
4.  The maximum refund per race per customer is £100 in Promo Cash.

Question about this to anyone who may know......

What happens if SS is withdrawn BEFORE Cheltenham starts. Do we have an unlimited time to use the Free Bet, or would we have to use it within 24 hours of the horse being officially withdrawn?


EDIT - Strike that. horsey wrote.....


10.  All ‘Non Runner – Free Bet’ Promo Cash that is awarded must be used on the day that the race in question is run

So, if SS is withdrawn before the Fessie, we must remember to place our £50 Free Bet on the day of the Champion Chase.

[jakally]

Yeovil v Watford

Yeovil 3/1 to beat Watford on NYD & using some very simple stuff here, but Yeovil hammered Watford in the same fixture a few weeks ago, shows they are more than capable of beating them. Perhaps neither team is playing well, but 3/1 on a team to win against a team they have already trashed, think it could possibly be a bet.

I do say though I am more than aware that it has happened where the previous result has been turned on it's head & it might happen this time!

However it's 3/1 in one place & Suggest £15

Not great on this one Aaron.
If you want a home dog punt, then Millwall (v Leicester) is a slightly better one.
Millwall are a better home side than Yeovil, and Watford & Leicester are similarly rated away.
31/10 available with BV, which maybe a bit of value.

Not a recommend, yet. If price drifts, which it may do, then I could put it up.

Oi, Giblin, stay away from the PLO8 DYM's Next Door, they are MY territory. And pension.

Understood?

I was bored....but when I started playing the thing, realised I couldn't possibly be that bored... 

[tikay]

Fiorentina to finish top 3 in Serie A.

They are currently placed 4th 3 points behind 3rd placed team Napoli and a further 8 points behind 2nd placed Roma. Ignore Juve best squad and too far ahead.

Fiorentina play the best football in the league and have the current top scorer in Rossi. They've been unlucky with they marquee signing Mario Gomez being inured for most of the season, however he is due to come back in the next 2 weeks.

In the January transfer window they are looking to buy Domenico Criscito from Zenit, Italian international left back to help shore up the backline.

This is a really good bet as I can see them staying top 4 and an excellent chance of making the top 3. Murmurs in Italy that Higuain could be leaving Napoli for Chelsea which would obviously be huge for this bet. This is just rumourville tho.







http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/italy-serie-a/top-3-finish

Edit:

Just seen you can get 11/2 on Fiorentina qualifying for next years Champions league group stages with BWIN. Does not make sense, BWIN go 5/2 for top 3 finish and 11/2 to qualify for champions league group stages. Top 2 qualify automatically and 3rd place team has to play a qualifier in Serie A.

Make it £60.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

Thanks.

How come you are you so well-versed in the Italian football market, is it a speciality of yours, or are you Italian by birth?

I hope I never got confiused, but we have had £50 @ 5/2, Fiorentina to finish Top 3, Seria A.


BET PLACED

[Doobs]

Paulinho News.

Our man - yes our man - was injured in the game against Stoke and is expected to be out for up to four weeks with ligament damage. A little while ago, Spurs tried to sign Charlie Adam from Blackpool and it almost went through on deadline day. Since then, it's like he blames our club for not getting the deal done, as he's twice delivered horror tackles on Bale and now this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10543606/Tottenham-Hotspur-to-lodge-complaint-over-Stoke-City-midfielder-Charlie-Adam-following-challenge-on-Paulinho.html

He's one of those players I'm convinced should be booked before they go onto the pitch. Saves time.

Anyway, rant over. Paulinho won't be scoring any league goals for the next four games or so.

Well that has come as a total surprise......

Real Madrid obviously scoring too many.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10540595/Tottenham-braced-for-another-battle-with-Real-Madrid-as-Paulinho-targeted-by-Spaniards.html

[Bad Beat]

 On the Super Bowl outright I definitely have the view that it's wide open and wouldn't really shoot down any suggestion for any of the big priced teams to win the Super Bowl.

 One thing I would say though is that the outright odds, particularly on wildcard teams who have to play two or even three road games to get there will not come to anything like the price you would get if you just backed them to win this weekend's game and reinvested the winnings on the best price on Betfair for the divisional game, the Championship game and the Super Bowl.

 Take Green Bay...

 They are essentially a 42% chance to win at home this week. They will go to the Seahawks if Philly win or Carolina if the Saints beat Philly. For this they will be roghly 7pt or 4pt dogs in those games and so they'll be roughly 26% or 36% to win. I think on average they are 29% to make it through the divisional round. They would then play the Championship game probably on the road and be between 25% and 40% to win. Say they are 33% to keep this post from taking an hour.

 That means they are 42% x 29% x 33% to make the Super Bowl. That is around 4% or 25/1 just to get to the Super Bowl.

 You could easily pick apart my maths and tell me you have the figures a few % higher here or there but you can't make 20/1 and a half 1,2 on the ew a value bet.

 The same can be said for any of the Wild Card teams really.

 What this could mean is there is a tad of value elsewhere...

[tikay]

Yeovil v Watford

Yeovil 3/1 to beat Watford on NYD & using some very simple stuff here, but Yeovil hammered Watford in the same fixture a few weeks ago, shows they are more than capable of beating them. Perhaps neither team is playing well, but 3/1 on a team to win against a team they have already trashed, think it could possibly be a bet.

I do say though I am more than aware that it has happened where the previous result has been turned on it's head & it might happen this time!

However it's 3/1 in one place & Suggest £15

Not great on this one Aaron.
If you want a home dog punt, then Millwall (v Leicester) is a slightly better one.
Millwall are a better home side than Yeovil, and Watford & Leicester are similarly rated away.
31/10 available with BV, which maybe a bit of value.

Not a recommend, yet. If price drifts, which it may do, then I could put it up.

Oi, Giblin, stay away from the PLO8 DYM's Next Door, they are MY territory. And pension.

Understood?

I was bored....but when I started playing the thing, realised I couldn't possibly be that bored... 

Ha, very good. Good to see you busting everyone for me, whilst I had the PASS button locked down. I played EXACTLY one hand in that one, & the thing took 43 minutes from start to finish. Ship the £10.

Would it surprise you if I told you I have played around 1,100 of those things in the last 2 months, & 27 of them yesterday alone? Exciting life I lead, eh?

[tikay]

On the Super Bowl outright I definitely have the view that it's wide open and wouldn't really shoot down any suggestion for any of the big priced teams to win the Super Bowl.

 One thing I would say though is that the outright odds, particularly on wildcard teams who have to play two or even three road games to get there will not come to anything like the price you would get if you just backed them to win this weekend's game and reinvested the winnings on the best price on Betfair for the divisional game, the Championship game and the Super Bowl.

 Take Green Bay...

 They are essentially a 42% chance to win at home this week. They will go to the Seahawks if Philly win or Carolina if the Saints beat Philly. For this they will be roghly 7pt or 4pt dogs in those games and so they'll be roughly 26% or 36% to win. I think on average they are 29% to make it through the divisional round. They would then play the Championship game probably on the road and be between 25% and 40% to win. Say they are 33% to keep this post from taking an hour.

 That means they are 42% x 29% x 33% to make the Super Bowl. That is around 4% or 25/1 just to get to the Super Bowl.

 You could easily pick apart my maths and tell me you have the figures a few % higher here or there but you can't make 20/1 and a half 1,2 on the ew a value bet.

 The same can be said for any of the Wild Card teams really.

 What this could mean is there is a tad of value elsewhere...

Thanks Lord G.

To be honest, I came to exactly the same conclusions after running the very same maths.

PS - In all seriousness, I think Tighty hinted at exactly this yesterday.

[tikay]

Big Bash Update

As has been previously mentioned the Smith bets a near certain non runner.

Our other outright bet, Hales topscorer is going so so. He's on 65 after 2 matches and is behind Finch who's leading the way with 128 having played 3 matches, he will miss a few games once the ODI's start up v England tho.

Tomorrow's a big day for the Hales bet imo as they're playing at Adelaide and small square leg boundaries so potential for a big score. Could really do with a 50 plus score and that will put us back in the hunt.

They play a total of 8 group games and a potential for 2 more if they qualify for semis and finals.

 The game is on at 9.40 in the morning our time.

I'm debating whether to stick up the over 9.5 sixes as a bet (5/6). A century to be scored (8/1) is interesting because as mentioned short boundaries and a couple of v good players. Hales and Marsh are the obvious contenders for the century bet.

Thanks for the Update.

I decided to have a small wager on "Over 9.5 sixes", £30 @ 5/6 with Wm Hill.

BET PLACED

Update.

Perth are batting first, 10 overs are completed, so 25% of the game is complete, Perth are 87/4, & have scored TWO sixes so far, so I think we are just about on target.

[horseplayer]

did you get on the Billy Kee suggestion Tikay?