Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Profit on Month £872.44

Outstanding Bets £2728.12

Free bets to use ONE William Hill by 4th January 2014

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=33

A loss of £95 yesterday with the booking of three Darts losses on the PDC WDC. Lewis was whooped by George Dawes 6-0 to end that bet, the 100 averages bet seemed to run badly with several near misses and Wright did not checkout over 129.5

I think that was the only activity in the portfolio yesterday, though it all kicks off again tomorrow with the New Years Day football programme

[tikay]

did you get on the Billy Kee suggestion Tikay?

Ooh, well reminded, yes, I did, with Betfair.

I'll sort out the Admin now.

[tikay]

League Two Top Goalscorer Suggestion

This is a good time of the season to look at these markets with possible transfers out of the league likely to have a big effect on the market.

The current fav is SAM WINNALL for scunthorpe, having his first full professional season he is in great form and scored again on Saturday. He was however sent off for a second booking and there are two negatives in my mind. A minor one is it is his first full season and he may well burn out suffer a loss of form, he has also played most games of the contenders so far and has yet to miss a significant run of games. The major one is stories like this http://www.teamtalk.com/scunthorpe-united/9054103/Interest-mounts-in-Winnall

He is only on a one year contract so Jan will presumably mean either a new contract signed at Scunny or a move to a league one or possibly Championship side (or a pre contract signed which may result in loss of form)

RHYS MURPHY is also having his first full season in english league football after a brief spell in the Dutch second divison last year after release from Arsenal. He has started the season well but has dried up a bit recently. He did however sign a 2 year contract so is highly unlikely to leave in Jan. He has played most minutes of any of the contenders and a minor negative would be possible burn out again.

SCOTT HOGAN is now back in league football after being released by Rochdale who then re signed him after a brief spell in non league were he nearly went to Birmingham. Again i am repeating myself but he has 26 career starts and may tire/lose form second half of season. On a positive note Rochdale are back firing under the excellent Keith Hill and that will help.

The man i like is BILLY KEE still only young but has plenty of experience and actually has the best goals to game ratio of anybody this season in League Two at 0.54 goals per game, He is currently 4 goals behind Swinnall and Murphy but has played 8 less games than both (due to injury)

In 75 games for Burton he has 37 goals this shows a fair amount of consistency at this level, he has hopefully had his injury for the season and Burton are likely to continue near the top three for the rest of the season. They dont seem to have any financial pressure to sell so a sale seems very unlikely.


Suggest £10 win Betfair Billy Kee at best odds (should get half matched at least at 21-1 now) leave rest up is fine

Shame so few firms price this market up very poor, for those who can the 18-1 with skybet looks fine as an each way bet in my opinion.

Thanks John.

We had £10 @ 22 on Betfair, Billy Kee, of which £6 has been matched so far.

BET PLACED

[BigAdz]

I have a bet on Taylor(I think...cant be bothered to check) to be top scorer for Ipswich(I think).

Has to be a Fred recommend, even if we didnt do it.

Anyone know how its doing? and if badly, anyone prepared to own up?

It was Chompy who recommended a MAX on this bloke. I just rebuffed, as per. 

Should have guessed. I'm sticking with Ant suggestions next season, he knows his stuff.

[BigAdz]

Sprinter Sacre 10/11 NRFB with VC, surely a bet for £50 max you can do for Champ Chase in March.

Sky 11/10 without the concession is the only one better. Laddies 1/2 with no concession.

If he is fit, he wins. If he is not 100% he probably won't run.

Not my usual sort of bet but for a nifty I cant refuse, unless I'm missing something.

Is it £50 max at that price?

3.  The maximum refund per horse per customer is £50 in Promo Cash. If you back the same selection in more than one race at antepost level only your first bet on that selection is eligible for a refund. BetVictor will determine what your first bet is by using the lowest bet ID number on your bet slips. This information is clearly displayed in your account when you select an open bet.
4.  The maximum refund per race per customer is £100 in Promo Cash.

Question about this to anyone who may know......

What happens if SS is withdrawn BEFORE Cheltenham starts. Do we have an unlimited time to use the Free Bet, or would we have to use it within 24 hours of the horse being officially withdrawn?


EDIT - Strike that. horsey wrote.....


10.  All ‘Non Runner – Free Bet’ Promo Cash that is awarded must be used on the day that the race in question is run

So, if SS is withdrawn before the Fessie, we must remember to place our £50 Free Bet on the day of the Champion Chase.

Probably still won't appear until the after the race, based on past experience.

[tikay]

Sprinter Sacre 10/11 NRFB with VC, surely a bet for £50 max you can do for Champ Chase in March.

Sky 11/10 without the concession is the only one better. Laddies 1/2 with no concession.

If he is fit, he wins. If he is not 100% he probably won't run.

Not my usual sort of bet but for a nifty I cant refuse, unless I'm missing something.

Is it £50 max at that price?

3.  The maximum refund per horse per customer is £50 in Promo Cash. If you back the same selection in more than one race at antepost level only your first bet on that selection is eligible for a refund. BetVictor will determine what your first bet is by using the lowest bet ID number on your bet slips. This information is clearly displayed in your account when you select an open bet.
4.  The maximum refund per race per customer is £100 in Promo Cash.

Question about this to anyone who may know......

What happens if SS is withdrawn BEFORE Cheltenham starts. Do we have an unlimited time to use the Free Bet, or would we have to use it within 24 hours of the horse being officially withdrawn?


EDIT - Strike that. horsey wrote.....


10.  All ‘Non Runner – Free Bet’ Promo Cash that is awarded must be used on the day that the race in question is run

So, if SS is withdrawn before the Fessie, we must remember to place our £50 Free Bet on the day of the Champion Chase.

Probably still won't appear until the after the race, based on past experience.

OK, understood, thanks. We need to keep an eye on this one. We'll probably be backing every runner in the race, anyway.....

[tikay]

I have a bet on Taylor(I think...cant be bothered to check) to be top scorer for Ipswich(I think).

Has to be a Fred recommend, even if we didnt do it.

Anyone know how its doing? and if badly, anyone prepared to own up?

It was Chompy who recommended a MAX on this bloke. I just rebuffed, as per. 

Should have guessed. I'm sticking with Ant suggestions next season, he knows his stuff.

Exactly.

Next up, Palace to qualify for the CL.

[horseplayer]

6 sixes so far after a late flurry

[maldini32]

6 sixes so far after a late flurry

Coulter Nile to the rescue. Strikers have a much better batting lineup so hopefully at least 4 more.

[maldini32]

Fiorentina to finish top 3 in Serie A.

They are currently placed 4th 3 points behind 3rd placed team Napoli and a further 8 points behind 2nd placed Roma. Ignore Juve best squad and too far ahead.

Fiorentina play the best football in the league and have the current top scorer in Rossi. They've been unlucky with they marquee signing Mario Gomez being inured for most of the season, however he is due to come back in the next 2 weeks.

In the January transfer window they are looking to buy Domenico Criscito from Zenit, Italian international left back to help shore up the backline.

This is a really good bet as I can see them staying top 4 and an excellent chance of making the top 3. Murmurs in Italy that Higuain could be leaving Napoli for Chelsea which would obviously be huge for this bet. This is just rumourville tho.







http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/italy-serie-a/top-3-finish

Edit:

Just seen you can get 11/2 on Fiorentina qualifying for next years Champions league group stages with BWIN. Does not make sense, BWIN go 5/2 for top 3 finish and 11/2 to qualify for champions league group stages. Top 2 qualify automatically and 3rd place team has to play a qualifier in Serie A.

Make it £60.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

Thanks.

How come you are you so well-versed in the Italian football market, is it a speciality of yours, or are you Italian by birth?

I hope I never got confiused, but we have had £50 @ 5/2, Fiorentina to finish Top 3, Seria A.


BET PLACED

Always been a huge fan since the early 90's and thats where my love for the great man Maldini comes from!

You put the right bet on that I recommended. However, I was going through the specials on oddschecker and found the Fiorentina to qualify for the Champions league @ 11/2 which is an even better bet. I did edit a bit later so understandable if you missed it. This is the link:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

[tikay]

6 sixes so far after a late flurry

Coulter Nile to the rescue. Strikers have a much better batting lineup so hopefully at least 4 more.

Good stuff.

Is 160 a target that will force the Strikers to lash out a bit?

[Doobs]

Fiorentina to finish top 3 in Serie A.

They are currently placed 4th 3 points behind 3rd placed team Napoli and a further 8 points behind 2nd placed Roma. Ignore Juve best squad and too far ahead.

Fiorentina play the best football in the league and have the current top scorer in Rossi. They've been unlucky with they marquee signing Mario Gomez being inured for most of the season, however he is due to come back in the next 2 weeks.

In the January transfer window they are looking to buy Domenico Criscito from Zenit, Italian international left back to help shore up the backline.

This is a really good bet as I can see them staying top 4 and an excellent chance of making the top 3. Murmurs in Italy that Higuain could be leaving Napoli for Chelsea which would obviously be huge for this bet. This is just rumourville tho.







http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/italy-serie-a/top-3-finish

Edit:

Just seen you can get 11/2 on Fiorentina qualifying for next years Champions league group stages with BWIN. Does not make sense, BWIN go 5/2 for top 3 finish and 11/2 to qualify for champions league group stages. Top 2 qualify automatically and 3rd place team has to play a qualifier in Serie A.

Make it £60.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

Thanks.

How come you are you so well-versed in the Italian football market, is it a speciality of yours, or are you Italian by birth?

I hope I never got confiused, but we have had £50 @ 5/2, Fiorentina to finish Top 3, Seria A.


BET PLACED

Always been a huge fan since the early 90's and thats where my love for the great man Maldini comes from!

You put the right bet on that I recommended. However, I was going through the specials on oddschecker and found the Fiorentina to qualify for the Champions league @ 11/2 which is an even better bet. I did edit a bit later so understandable if you missed it. This is the link:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

To be fair to Tikay, you said they have to play a qualifier, so it wasn't clear it was better value.  

[tikay]

Fiorentina to finish top 3 in Serie A.

They are currently placed 4th 3 points behind 3rd placed team Napoli and a further 8 points behind 2nd placed Roma. Ignore Juve best squad and too far ahead.

Fiorentina play the best football in the league and have the current top scorer in Rossi. They've been unlucky with they marquee signing Mario Gomez being inured for most of the season, however he is due to come back in the next 2 weeks.

In the January transfer window they are looking to buy Domenico Criscito from Zenit, Italian international left back to help shore up the backline.

This is a really good bet as I can see them staying top 4 and an excellent chance of making the top 3. Murmurs in Italy that Higuain could be leaving Napoli for Chelsea which would obviously be huge for this bet. This is just rumourville tho.







http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/italy-serie-a/top-3-finish

Edit:

Just seen you can get 11/2 on Fiorentina qualifying for next years Champions league group stages with BWIN. Does not make sense, BWIN go 5/2 for top 3 finish and 11/2 to qualify for champions league group stages. Top 2 qualify automatically and 3rd place team has to play a qualifier in Serie A.

Make it £60.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

Thanks.

How come you are you so well-versed in the Italian football market, is it a speciality of yours, or are you Italian by birth?

I hope I never got confiused, but we have had £50 @ 5/2, Fiorentina to finish Top 3, Seria A.


BET PLACED

Always been a huge fan since the early 90's and thats where my love for the great man Maldini comes from!

You put the right bet on that I recommended. However, I was going through the specials on oddschecker and found the Fiorentina to qualify for the Champions league @ 11/2 which is an even better bet. I did edit a bit later so understandable if you missed it. This is the link:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

To be fair to Tikay, you said they have to play a qualifier, so it wasn't clear it was better value.  

Yes, when explaining stuff to me, use short words, & make it clear. I did read it 7 times, including the Edit, & but I was not 100% clear.

I'll look at that CL thing shortly, thanks guys.

[horseplayer]

11-2 looks a near max to me

If you say the 5-2 is the right price (i happen to think it is a bit big) then bwin are saying they would be nearly 7-2 to qualify through the qualifier for the champions league. They will never be that price to win a euro qualifier

[maldini32]

Fiorentina to finish top 3 in Serie A.

They are currently placed 4th 3 points behind 3rd placed team Napoli and a further 8 points behind 2nd placed Roma. Ignore Juve best squad and too far ahead.

Fiorentina play the best football in the league and have the current top scorer in Rossi. They've been unlucky with they marquee signing Mario Gomez being inured for most of the season, however he is due to come back in the next 2 weeks.

In the January transfer window they are looking to buy Domenico Criscito from Zenit, Italian international left back to help shore up the backline.

This is a really good bet as I can see them staying top 4 and an excellent chance of making the top 3. Murmurs in Italy that Higuain could be leaving Napoli for Chelsea which would obviously be huge for this bet. This is just rumourville tho.







http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/italy-serie-a/top-3-finish

Edit:

Just seen you can get 11/2 on Fiorentina qualifying for next years Champions league group stages with BWIN. Does not make sense, BWIN go 5/2 for top 3 finish and 11/2 to qualify for champions league group stages. Top 2 qualify automatically and 3rd place team has to play a qualifier in Serie A.

Make it £60.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

Thanks.

How come you are you so well-versed in the Italian football market, is it a speciality of yours, or are you Italian by birth?

I hope I never got confiused, but we have had £50 @ 5/2, Fiorentina to finish Top 3, Seria A.


BET PLACED

Always been a huge fan since the early 90's and thats where my love for the great man Maldini comes from!

You put the right bet on that I recommended. However, I was going through the specials on oddschecker and found the Fiorentina to qualify for the Champions league @ 11/2 which is an even better bet. I did edit a bit later so understandable if you missed it. This is the link:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/fiorentina/to-qualify-for-champions-league

To be fair to Tikay, you said they have to play a qualifier, so it wasn't clear it was better value. 

Yes, when explaining stuff to me, use short words, & make it clear. I did read it 7 times, including the Edit, & but I was not 100% clear.

I'll look at that CL thing shortly, thanks guys.

:-) Most of my bets that I put up ususally confuse you!

Tbf I only found the 'to qualify for champions league' market when going through the specials. Not the easiest market to find. Bwin maxed me to £80 on it.