Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

I don't know. 5/6 about an even money shot looks massive to me. Perhaps Doibs could help ?

I think we can manage without Doobs, he says ambitiously...

5/6 shot wins 6 times out of every 11 played on average. That's 54.54545...% of the time.

If it only has a 50% chance of winning in reality, you are down 4.55%

The overround of a 5/6-5/6 market is 1/11th, so roughly 9%

Need that school for gifted children cartoon where the door says pull

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

[The Camel]

I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

Morning all,

Have a few minutes spare so just wanted to make a brief post as I've seen this logic from Teeks a couple of times now and thought I'd offer a brief piece on the subject... I realise I ramble more than most so will try to keep to bullet point format.

1. Tikay, you are correct in that, generally speaking, bookies do love punters who place doubles/trebles/accas. The very best example of this is the football coupon punter who tries to pick the 10 results from the weekend's Premier League games as an example.

2. This is because, generally speaking, the bookmaker expects to have a positive edge on any given market. In the example above, when he is laying Arsenal at 4/6, the 'true' price may be closer to 1.71 for example. This gives the bookmaker an implied win of £2.53 for every £100 staked.

3. As multiple selections are 'strung' together, the bookmakers margin increases - as the punter is rolling forward less than he should. In the example above if Arsenal were doubled with Chelsea at Evs (whom should be 11/10) then Billy Bunter rolls £166.67 from the Arsenal win, which then cops leaving him £333.34, of which £233.34 is profit. Sounds great, but in reality his £100 should have become £171, which at 11/10 true price (instead of the evens offered) becomes £359.10, of which £259.10 is profit. The punter has won £25.76 less than he should have done!!


HOWEVER

4. We have seen that the flaw in the piece is that the margin multiplies as selections are strung together.

5. This is generally accepted as bad news as the bookies margin multiplies up. But.....what if the punter had a positive expectation, rather than the bookmaker?

6. Fred quickly accepted beating the price as a good sign, it implies +EV to the punter. If Fred has £100 on a horse @ 2/1 that has a true price of 6/4, Fred has 'made' £20 in EV from the bet. His returns are £300 where they should be £250.

7. Imagine Fred had two of these in a day, both bet at 2/1 where they should be 6/4. If these were placed in a winning double the return would be £100 --> £300 --> £900, for a profit of £800. If the true price of 6/4 had been taken on both selections, it would have looked like £100 --> £250 --> £625, for a profit of £525. In this instance, 84% of the time Fred loses £100, and 16% of the time he wins £800. Fred has made £44 in EV from a £100 bet.

8. Securing prices in excess of the true price, and multiplying them together, has allowed for the margin to multiply in the punters favour.

CONCLUSION

If the margin is in the bookmaker's favour, multiples are bad, as the 'edge' rolls up for them.

If the margin is in the punter's favour, multiples are good, as the 'edge' rolls up for us.

Interim volatility is increased owing to the decreased % likelihood of the selected events occurring (the phenomenon you refer to of it being tough enough to beat the bookies once, let alone twice/thrice/etc.)

Losing spells will be longer as the punter waits for his returns to realise 'true expectation'.

But in the longterm the punter is putting himself in fantastic value spots, which is of course the aim of the game.



Good luck,

Ed

Early contender for TFT post of the year.

Great stuff Ed.

[Omm]

Slight error on the timing of the golf as I was looking at their time not our time. It's currently 3:39am where they are so I don't think they will be starting for a few hours yet.

[tikay]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

OK, so what do I do there?

TEN CHUNKS, that's what.

We got £100 @ 6/5.

Who's a good boy now, then?


BET PLACED

[ripple11]

A good friend of mine is at the SCG. His assessment:

If you were a neutral that day has pretty much everything. Runs wickets injuries and one of the worst test innings ever by carberry.
He faced 9 balls and played and missed at at least 6 before getting out for 0. Pretty sure root would have done better.

Unfortunately we're not neutral and we've let them off the hook again


And my favourite:

Test 5 day 1 lunch. Watson lbw b Anderson. Waited a long time for that.

Think he needs to watch it back.
 A fantastic spell of fast bowling from Johnson... 91-93 mph "bouncing and seaming, line and length spot on" quote Warney.
He played and missed 3 balls ( as we know, he has the habit of pulling the bat inside the line).

Certain a brillant days cricket that's for sure.

[tikay]

Slight error on the timing of the golf as I was looking at their time not our time. It's currently 3:39am where they are so I don't think they will be starting for a few hours yet.

Ha!

Well we only got one reply to my feedback request, & that was favourable, so we got on anyway.

Later today - around 10pm tonight - someone will tell us it was a bad bet. I promise.

[tikay]

It's tricky for sure but my thoughts would be if you are betting them then the stakes need to be a little bigger, not because its dick waving but because if the bet is deemed worthy of a bet then have a bet. One thing I have noticed is the stakes at the end of a good month seem to get smaller, looks like you are defending a winning period instead of staking solely on the merit of the selections. Maybe this has crept into the general level of staking too.

Obv some people would rather have smaller bets when they put up selections and you don't want to make people uncomfortable if they are worried about you losing a bullseye on their recommendation. In general tho you now have a track record and the means to have a little more on. Just my opinion of course, and you know my thoughts about punters betting loads of Prem lge and higher football league matches which are very unlikely to have any major edges. But Chompy's thoughts on Peterboro or Tighty's non league thoughts are worth far more because they come from good people and are on matches that most of the firms will not have even looked at when throwing prices out. So they are the spots you should be having more on, not less because they are bigger prices. ( did you have 60 quid at 4/6 on a game last night but 2 tenner bets at 14/5 today?)

At some stage you might just have to accept that getting the abs best price isn't going to be possible on every selection due to restrictions and to get more on you will have to take under best price. I know this sounds bad practice but if someone tips up 20 quid at 12/1 on a horse/first scorer/skier and you can only get £3.24  or so then you should consider getting on at the next best price instead of just having the tiny amounts on.

Only partly agree, Phil.

A lot of the Restricted stuff is on Markets where only PP & 365 have markets up, horse race prices the night before, for example, & nobody else offers the Market that early.   

And have you seen the grief I get when I take a nadge uder "Best Price", someone is guaranteed to Post minutes later "you coulda got a better price with x"!

I don't believe the stakes decrease towards the end of a winning month, not that I am aware. I try to encourage people to suggest stakes. If, say, Bazza recommends a boxer & says £20, or £50, I believe that suggests his confidence in the bet. I HAVE to listen to that. Unfortunately, many folks still do not give me a recommended bet size. More headaches ensue, then. It is far easier for me to modify a proposed bet size, then for me to guess at how much to bet. But that is just the official "FRED", which is really just a scorecard, the mortar in the brickwork sort of thing. Others who follow Fred can bet as big as they like, or feel comfy with. Me, I'm scared, I really am. Don't forget, this is real money I'm punting with, & I'm relying on info from others when I bet.

I tried to get feedback last night on the Hibs bet, & again today on the Spieth bet, & got barely a reply. Is it any wonder we get things wrong sometimes if I have to make these decisions? I've never watched a Scottish football match in my life, how am I supposed to judge a game like that? I even wrote at length this morning about why I was uncomfy with the bet. Not had one reply. If we want to do better than we already do - a good aspiration - then we all need to do our bit.

I agree 100% about the perceived value in, say, Premier League games - it is VERY rare that the prices offer much edge. The Villa game the other day was one such example, to be fair, though it took one hell of a shrewd guy to spot it. And yet 5 or 6 Prem League Match outrights get suggested every week, without fail. They do.

For all the joshing around, I follow Chompy blind, & I do a lot of off-Forum stuff with him, he's absolutely golden.

In truth, I just don't have the time available to give the thought necessary to some of these bets. I play Online Poker most nights, 4 or 5 Tables at a time, which is a real handful for me. When a bet comes in during that, & I'm fiddling with 5 Tables & that bloody Corals website, I don't half struggle!

Which was why I tentatively suggested this morning that maybe we'd all be better off going forward if someone else stepped in to share, or take, my current role here.

[bobby1]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

[ripple11]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

Ladbrokes up now...going 5/4

[BigAdz]

Perri 6/5 Splash with Betfred.  Think anything above evens is good.  Got my 50 on. 

Ladbrokes up now...going 5/4

I did take some 6/4 when suggested but I would utter one phrase.....beware the Gumball Factor.

[horseplayer]

sprinter sacre heartbeat back to normal

[Tal]

In the world of flamboyant, matching pyjamas, the Sydney Snort Thrusters lost to the Perth Ocelots, continuing their impressive run.

[tikay]

I agree with Keith re Ed's post too and of course if anyone is going to spot an angle in the Prem/other leagues once the teams are out it is Keith. There have been spots over the year where you abs should have had multiples Tony. One of the darts guys put up a bet on under the averages in the Dubai darts because the event was taking place on an outdoor stage and would be wind affected. In that spot all the averages were likely to be in too high and I think the under won in most of them. It was like betting weather related multiples in day NFL or Rugger where you are either on the right side of every bet because the weather does become a factor or you just have to win if it doesn't. So your value is multiplied thru each event.

There were a couple of footy matches on the last day of the Championship season that had a direct baring on each other, if one team was winning then the 2 teams in the other game would be happy with a draw and as it happened those two teams spent the last part of that game passing it around in defence to run the clock out as their fans chanted 'Yorkshire Yorkshire' and had a communal love in as Chompy's boys went down.

Tal posted summat the other day regarding outside trap bias at a dog meeting, back in the day Monmore used to have an amazing bias to the outside when it was very cold. We used to watch the first set of races and if there was a bias we would bet the outside traps on the early birds in the late races ( in those days they priced up the last 4 or so because the horse racing would have finished by then) and do muitis, fcast, fcast doubles etc. 99% of the time they are mug bets but if you think you have a bias or an angle like these examples you have to consider multi's.

But Phil, I dont know how to seperate the wheat from the chaff unless Elders step in & advise. You are a Sports Betting Pro, it's almost instinct to you. To me, it's beyond my ability to know.

So we now have THREE areas to address.

redarmi said a while back we should take lesser edges but have more bets. For example, instead of our 2,500 bets yielding 5%, we'd be better doing 5,000 bets @ 3%. I agree entirely, but where do Tighty, & I, Mere to a degree too, find the time to manage a doubled workload?

Multiples. You know my views, everyone does, but fine, the Pros know better, I accept that. But how do I know which is or is not a good value double? I don't have the knowledge to identify them.

Upping the stakes. See my reply earlier today. Not one person has replied to me yet.......

[tikay]

In the world of flamboyant, matching pyjamas, the Sydney Snort Thrusters lost to the Perth Ocelots, continuing their impressive run.

Was that the 10/11 shots you mentioned?

I sort of forget it what with all the energy in the thread today.