Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

[JaffaCake]

Think the first NBA game is 1am if u wanna get a cheeky score on tikay

[sonour]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

[sonour]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

But, I like your thinking

[redarmi]

Tighty's NFL bets are up for SATURDAY night.

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 v Indianapolis Colts 10/11

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v New Orleans Saints 10/11

Can I suggest we do these please ?

Ooh, thanks for the nudge, & yes, we'll climb aboard.

As it is Post-Season, we may consider upping the stakes by a chunk or two.

I don't want to be a killjoy but I would advise caution about upping stakes for the playoffs.

Firstly psychological factors which might be in place in many regular season games (let downs, revenge, looking ahead spots, sandwich spots etc etc) which can lead to good bets are not in play in post season games where you can pretty much rely on every team giving 100% in every position.

Secondly, as there are only 4 (or 2 or 1) each week, each match-up is analysed to death and in totality. It is much more unlikely that the linesmakers will make anything resembling a mistake in the main markets.

As there are so many prop bets on offer, it's in those we should concentrate - because we can definitely get a much bigger edge on these than on the main markets.

I would venture to suggest that we should definitely not bet as big on these selections than Chompy's picks in Celebrity Big Brother rubbish.

(FWIW, if i *HAD* to bet on the two games, I would go the same way as Rich)

+1 to Keiths post here.  Increasing stakes in the postseason seems bad and a bit muggy to me.  Not to say there won't be a bet but  stake size should be relative to edge sizre and no reason to think that edges will increase in postseason and lots=of reasons to think they won't.

[tikay]

Fifth Test, 1st Innings

Broad 2 wickets, Anderson 1.

Stokes got SIX wickets, but I don't think that affects us.

One more innings, & the bet concludes. If we hold, that pays for all our Ashes bets, I believe. We did have one or two that went south......

[tikay]

Listening to Sir Geoffrey on TMS, how does he manage to get so many syllables into "uncomfortable"? (As in, "the bounce is uncomfortable").

Presumably he does the same with vegetable.

[Tal]

That's brilliant, chaps. My assumptions really aren't based on much, so I'm genuinely grateful for the insight from more experienced NFLers.

Am happy to mull that over (I'll change conclusions quite freely and happily if that's what the numbers tell me to do), but I do keep coming back to the question of whether it really is a coin flip as to whether it is Team A or Team B that throws the first red flag.

Probably not a coin flip but at odds of 5/6 we have a 17% advantage to overcome.

It's only 4.55% per selection, isn't it? One eleventh combined? You're still right, of course.

[tikay]

Fifth Test, 1st Innings

Broad 2 wickets, Anderson 1.

Stokes got SIX wickets, but I don't think that affects us.

One more innings, & the bet concludes. If we hold, that pays for all our Ashes bets, I believe. We did have one or two that went south......

Australia were all out for 326, at close of play England were 8-1. It's entirely possible that England may not get to bowl again.

[Tal]

A good friend of mine is at the SCG. His assessment:

If you were a neutral that day has pretty much everything. Runs wickets injuries and one of the worst test innings ever by carberry.

He faced 9 balls and played and missed at at least 6 before getting out for 0. Pretty sure root would have done better.

Unfortunately we're not neutral and we've let them off the hook again


And my favourite:

Test 5 day 1 lunch. Watson lbw b Anderson. Waited a long time for that.

[horseplayer]

roots stock has risen a lot by not playing?

never looked that comfy to me and has not scored many either

[horseplayer]

meant to post this up after my thoughts on Villas excellent Camel tip

Villa's points per game with RonVlaar starting this season = 1.47. Villa's points per game without him = 0.2

This is also similar last season, goes to show cant beat experience at the back

There was an interesting point from the Villa physio yesterday who seemed to indicate he had told Lambert Vlaar was still not fit and his calf should not be risked, Vlaar apparantley told Lambert he was starting regardless.

He tweaked his calf again at Sunderland and is now being rested for the Fa Cup game the quotes below from Lambert suggest he cant wait to exit the cup.

The Scot added: "It is realistic. That is the nature of it. If anyone says any differently then I am not so sure they will be telling the truth because the Premier League is the most vital thing that anyone wants to get into and we are no different."
Lambert's side are six points above the Premier League relegation zone and it is survival - rather than the visit of the League One Blades - that is his priority.
"Cup competitions, if you can get through, then absolutely I want to get through. I don't want to not get through but your main one is the league," he said.
"We don't have a massive squad and points are really important. If you are honest enough people will say the same."


Bobby et al any ideas how strong a side Clough will put out for Sheff utd? A cheap Villa lay at 1-2 or Sheff Utd at 13-2 appeals IF Clough puts out a full strength side.

[tikay]

Think the first NBA game is 1am if u wanna get a cheeky score on tikay

Thanks Jeff, but I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself, though I'm grateful you put it up, as it alerted others to it.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

[Tal]

Perth Scorchers are hosting Sydney's Thunder from Down Under. Hang on, I might have got that wrong... They play Sydney anyway.

Sydney haven't won a t20 for 720 days. Their press guy over a glass of the Amber nectar has told my source they've been searching for a worse record in the format across the world and can't find one.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-big-bash/perth-scorchers-v-sydney-thunder/winner

On betfair, Perth are 1.92/1.93 and Sydney 2/2.06.

I know anyone can fluke a win in this format but are Perth that bad as to be only 10/11?


Edit: I do realise it's a liquid betfair market and the prices are pretty consistent, so the answer is the prices are about right, but it is a heck of a stat.

[BigAdz]

Think the first NBA game is 1am if u wanna get a cheeky score on tikay

Thanks Jeff, but I'm a bit averse to accas, I can't help myself, though I'm grateful you put it up, as it alerted others to it.

I know about the suggested value, da de da, but the fact is, bookies LOVE people doing Accas, as you have to beat them 3, 4 or 5 times to win. It's quite hard to beat them once, in truth. Bookies LOVE punters who place Accas, as that is where so much of their profit comes from. They'd far rather we all done Accas than singles. They'll go skint waiting for me, though.   

May improve your "credit rating" a bit though, by showing some ice cream tendencies.

Sprat to catch a mackerel etc, blah blah