Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Bet!

2.05 Lingfield tomo, £80 Examiner, 7/4 Satan Jams, if not £80 @ 13/8 fine.

I would have put him in at Evens for this and there's a fair chance he starts odds-on.

Truancy got away with pulling hard when he won his maiden and is potentially better than his mark, but he again tanked along last time and that cost him (I did the race for the paper). In a small field over an extra furlong round here, I couldn't have anything to do with him, as he's long odds-on to pull too hard.

Jalingo is OK but he had the run of the race in a tinpot 7f maiden last time.

Examiner holds Galaxy on latest running here and that effort is very deece in the context of this. He started favourite to beat a well-regarded Andrew Balding winner, who'd previously started favourite for a Newbury maiden but got stuck in the mud, that day and the pair dominated. Not many Balding 2yos start favourite first time up.

For me Examiner already sets the standard and he's the most progressive of the four. I'd go...

Evs Examiner, 3 Jalingo, 4 Truancy, 10 Galaxy

[tikay]

Bet!

2.05 Lingfield tomo, £80 Examiner, 7/4 Satan Jams, if not £80 @ 13/8 fine.

I would have put him in at Evens for this and there's a fair chance he starts odds-on.

Truancy got away with pulling hard when he won his maiden and is potentially better than his mark, but he again tanked along last time and that cost him (I did the race for the paper). In a small field over an extra furlong round here, I couldn't have anything to do with him, as he's long odds-on to pull too hard.

Jalingo is OK but he had the run of the race in a tinpot 7f maiden last time.

Examiner holds Galaxy on latest running here and that effort is very deece in the context of this. He started favourite to beat a well-regarded Andrew Balding winner, who'd previously started favourite for a Newbury maiden but got stuck in the mud, that day and the pair dominated. Not many Balding 2yos start favourite first time up.

For me Examiner already sets the standard and he's the most progressive of the four. I'd go...

Evs Examiner, 3 Jalingo, 4 Truancy, 10 Galaxy

How much?

HOW MUCH?

FML.

I must need my head examiner.

£80, just like that.

BET PLACED

[pokerfan]

Wells to Huddersfield is a done deal.

[sonour]

Bet!

2.05 Lingfield tomo, £80 Examiner, 7/4 Satan Jams, if not £80 @ 13/8 fine.

I would have put him in at Evens for this and there's a fair chance he starts odds-on.

Truancy got away with pulling hard when he won his maiden and is potentially better than his mark, but he again tanked along last time and that cost him (I did the race for the paper). In a small field over an extra furlong round here, I couldn't have anything to do with him, as he's long odds-on to pull too hard.

Jalingo is OK but he had the run of the race in a tinpot 7f maiden last time.

Examiner holds Galaxy on latest running here and that effort is very deece in the context of this. He started favourite to beat a well-regarded Andrew Balding winner, who'd previously started favourite for a Newbury maiden but got stuck in the mud, that day and the pair dominated. Not many Balding 2yos start favourite first time up.

For me Examiner already sets the standard and he's the most progressive of the four. I'd go...

Evs Examiner, 3 Jalingo, 4 Truancy, 10 Galaxy

Thank you Chompy

[Doobs]

Wells to Huddersfield is a done deal.

Too good for them.  Surprised he went there in the end, they are going to struggle to get in the Premiership even with him on board.   

Going to have to write off some chunky bets soon.  Please nobody else score for the rest of the season.  Need 6 months of 0-0s in league 1.  Of course, if scores result in a conga that is fine.

[Doobs]

Paddy now go 1/4 the odds a place on City games so ruins the bet I think!

Yes - qtr odds, 5 "places".

So we have some choices now, but I need some direction as to what route to take.


I can get £35 EW with PP, or £8 EW with 365.

Are PP double odds if he scores twice and triple if he scores three times or more ?

Ahhhhhhh, it was Betfred. Would have paid triple odds on Negrano.

Ha, now you remember!

I hope you made Pete traipse round every BetFred shop in Birmingham.

Let's see, THREE bookies were offering a good price.

Bet365

Paddy Power

BetFred

How many shops is that? The poor bloke must be knackered.

I didn't remember it was Betfred until he scored the third, then I had a moment of clarity.

No need to do a shop run for that type of bet. A single shop will take £500 on that which is more than I would want on.

I thought of Fred's double delight/ hat trick heaven offer but just couldn't pull the trigger to take 3/1 when the best price was 4/1. Do the maths stack up that 3/1 with that offer are worth taking? Sadly can't get a bean on with 365

I'm not sure I would have taken 3/1, I expected Betfred to go 7/2 which I probably would have taken.

I guess we need to know Man City's goal expectancy for the match, and each players % of Man City goals scored.

Perhaps Doobs could help so we know for the future ?

Hi Doobs,

Any chance you could have a go at this one please ?

Can't take the credit for the each way goal scorers.  It was Dubai's idea. 

You just have to find matches where there are likely to be significantly more goals than average.  If you find someone who scores a few and is around best price on the FGS markets, then the place bet is bound to be value with bet every day.  It is unlikely to work with Paddies as they go quarter the odds and limit you to 5 goals.  That meant the same bet with Paddies was likely bad the other day and good with bet every day.

I tend to avoid scoring 2 and scoring 3 markets, but I guess you can find an edge by following the same matches.  I haven't done the maths on it though and am not likely to do so soon.

[Omm]

As we discussed earlier in the thread there is a slight weather bias in the Sony Open.  The very early starters today would appear to be starting in fairly calm conditions with the wind picking up late in their round.

Jason Kokrak and Daniel Summerhays had good rounds yesterday and are both early off in the morning, so will have the best of the conditions.  Also when they have had a good first round almost 50% of the time* both players have had a good second round.

Summerhays is 25-1 with both Satan and Paddy (different place terms 1/4 and 1/5) Kokrak 25-1 Paddy.  This is to be second round leader

£5 ew on both for a 2nd round Fred golf sweat?




*small sample size warning

Certainly something to this Kokrak just gone joint leader, long way to go yet.

[The Camel]

Leicester absolutely rampant.

Form an orderly queue.

[sonour]

Paddy now go 1/4 the odds a place on City games so ruins the bet I think!

Yes - qtr odds, 5 "places".

So we have some choices now, but I need some direction as to what route to take.


I can get £35 EW with PP, or £8 EW with 365.

Are PP double odds if he scores twice and triple if he scores three times or more ?

Ahhhhhhh, it was Betfred. Would have paid triple odds on Negrano.

Ha, now you remember!

I hope you made Pete traipse round every BetFred shop in Birmingham.

Let's see, THREE bookies were offering a good price.

Bet365

Paddy Power

BetFred

How many shops is that? The poor bloke must be knackered.

I didn't remember it was Betfred until he scored the third, then I had a moment of clarity.

No need to do a shop run for that type of bet. A single shop will take £500 on that which is more than I would want on.

I thought of Fred's double delight/ hat trick heaven offer but just couldn't pull the trigger to take 3/1 when the best price was 4/1. Do the maths stack up that 3/1 with that offer are worth taking? Sadly can't get a bean on with 365

I'm not sure I would have taken 3/1, I expected Betfred to go 7/2 which I probably would have taken.

I guess we need to know Man City's goal expectancy for the match, and each players % of Man City goals scored.

Perhaps Doobs could help so we know for the future ?

Hi Doobs,

Any chance you could have a go at this one please ?

Can't take the credit for the each way goal scorers.  It was Dubai's idea. 

You just have to find matches where there are likely to be significantly more goals than average.  If you find someone who scores a few and is around best price on the FGS markets, then the place bet is bound to be value with bet every day.  It is unlikely to work with Paddies as they go quarter the odds and limit you to 5 goals.  That meant the same bet with Paddies was likely bad the other day and good with bet every day.

I tend to avoid scoring 2 and scoring 3 markets, but I guess you can find an edge by following the same matches.  I haven't done the maths on it though and am not likely to do so soon.

Thanks, but what I meant was is 4/1 FGS with PP better than 3/1 with Betfred with the offer. The Betfred offer is double odds for 2 goals and triple odds for three or more.
What % less do you think you could take with Betfred ?

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/west-brom/top-league-goalscorer

West Brom top league goal scorer.

Saido Berahino is still only 20 years old and has scored 4 goals.
Anelka is 34 and has 2 goals.
Long, subject of many transfer rumors, his wife recently tweeted that they won't be leaving as they have a baby on the way, forcing Steve Bruce to apologise for the rumors, has 3 goals.

Under the new manager, it appears they may play a more open game with potentially an attacking direction to the side.

Long to be top scorer in the league for West Brom 7/2.

What do people think?

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/tottenham/top-league-goalscorer

Soldado, 5 goals from 18 games.
Adebayor 3 goals from 5 games.

Adebayor, who it seems is going to get lots of games now with Sherwood the new manager.

Adebayor is 7/2 to be Tottenhams top league goal scorer, Soldado is 1/3.

Surely these odds are completely wrong and Adebayor is value?

£50 on Adebayor!

[TightEnd]

Nugeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeent!

-------

On West Brom, with Mel on board and the top scorer only having 4

a) there must be a chance this season's top scorer isn't at the club yet

b) even if he is we don't know which one/two he'll be playing up top, in which system do we?

Just seems like guesswork to try to estimate that ahead of a new manager's first few games

--

Tottenham is easier, as the change has taken place

Soldado is on penalties though?

[exstream]

Yeah, agree about the West Brom bet.

How important do you think the few penalties that Soldado will score will be? 7/2 Adebayor still looks amazing to me.

[exstream]

AP McCoy to have 2 or more winners on Channel 4 tomorrow 5/1 with WH.

Edit - ONLY KEMPTON 1.35, 2.10, 2.40 & 3.15 TO COUNT IF AP MCCOY RIDES IN FEWER THAN 2 RACES ALL BETS WILL BE VOID SINGLES ONLY

[TightEnd]

Yeah, agree about the West Brom bet.

How important do you think the few penalties that Soldado will score will be? 7/2 Adebayor still looks amazing to me.

wasn't necessarily disagreeing, though Adebayor is a moody so and so. A multi month bet when we need to be onside with the king of the strop?

We need a Spurs expert, or failing that Tal, to give a view