Tips for Tikay

[pleno1]

Fwiw some of the bookies offer really good prices on u21 matches. A spurs team which consisted of Townsend, Kane and freyers were 4/6 to beat a very very weak newcastle team last night but it was cancelled for waterlogged pitch. They should have been way worse than that.

[aaron1867]

Wednesday to beat Macclesfield is 2/5 tonight.

Wednesday "-1" is best 13/10 with Boyles, however Unibet offering a huge 12/5.

Suggest £30.

By the looks of it I think Unibet have made a few errors with regards to their market. Macclesfield -1 is 42/41, whilst Wednesday are 12/5, so could see this being a palp or see my bet voided.

Again, they make the same mistake in the Birmingham v Bristol Rovers market

Birmingham -1 is 33/10
Bristol Rovers -1 is 3/4

Backed both Brum & Weds, not sure what will happen!

[tikay]

Did a bit more work with the last ten years, I think the ones to avoid are the bigger dogs eg  for odds >3 its 767 bet and returned 535.  For odds <3 its 1744 bet 1849 returned.

I think in tennis because there are so many strong favs, the price of favs is much nearer true odds than the price of the dogs.  So prob for the bet when PP are competitive for a fav or small dog might be the thing.

If anyone wants to do more stuff I got my info from  http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/ausopen.php  You can just click on the spreadsheets and cut and paste them into a bigger sheet.**




column P an Q are the ones to filter to get the winner losing the first set (don't forget 6-7)

Can't work out if I'm being pretty dumb - but is the offer better in the men's event than the women's?

If we lose the first set, we have more chance of coming back in a 5 set match than a 3 set one?

Or does it make no difference?

The offer is much less beneficial for the women's tournament.

15 and 20 comeback wins in the last 2 years.
I haven't checked the odds but am pretty sure that this will be because there are generally less close matches in the women's tournament.

I would have thought that the offer is probably better value the later in the tournament that you go due to more close matches but the figures don't really seem to back that up.

Congratulations Camel.

Mere monitors Fred day in, day out, but these days, apart from his excellent & oh so punctual Monthly Reports, he rarely posts.

Then, Camel mentions LADIES TENNIS.

Job done. Sheer genius.

[Chompy]

Wednesday to beat Macclesfield is 2/5 tonight.

Wednesday "-1" is best 13/10 with Boyles, however Unibet offering a huge 12/5.

Suggest £30.

By the looks of it I think Unibet have made a few errors with regards to their market. Macclesfield -1 is 42/41, whilst Wednesday are 12/5, so could see this being a palp or see my bet voided.

Again, they make the same mistake in the Birmingham v Bristol Rovers market

Birmingham -1 is 33/10
Bristol Rovers -1 is 3/4

Backed both Brum & Weds, not sure what will happen!

Draw priced up too?

[aaron1867]

17/4

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £124.12

Outstanding Bets £2837.37

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=34


No bets completed yestyerday with the Arsenal lay not being matched. The Arsenal win took them back to the top of the table and the "finish in the top three" bet looks good, they are currently six points clear of Liverpool in 4th

The Australian Open Tennis is of course underway too, and Djokovic won yesterday. Best price outright for him now is 3/4 such is the way the draw worked out and the speed of the courts.

We have Al Ferof ante-post for the Ryanair but I note Pricewise went up 16-1 Al Ferof for the Gold Cup as his selection. Thoughts?

Still catching up from the weekend but as well as Suarez runnign away with the golden boot in the Premiership note our Championship goalscorer position, after Ings and Nugent scored at the weekend again

Our Nugent bet is e/w top 4, Ings e/w top 3 both at 20-1+

17 McCormack  (Leeds)
16 Ings  (Burnley)
16 Rhodes  (Blackburn)
14 Nugent (Leicester)
12 Martin  (Derby)

Would be nice to see McCormack or Rhodes leave the division in the transfer window, and not Danny!

[TightEnd]

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[Waz1892]

Not saying its maybe value, but based on lee clarks comments this morning, brum look up for ot big time

So 4/7 (just hills, cant view others at mo) looks good.

Lee clark said;

"It's as big as game as any game we've had, if not bigger.
"There are financial implications that are crucial to our club, with the chance of a home tie against a Premier League club in the next round.
"We don't want to be one of those involved in a shock result. We'll be fielding a very, very strong side and changes will be to a very bare minimum."

[Acidmouse]

Leeds vs Leicester City Sky game Saturday. Having watched Leeds last 5 games they are in woeful formed, everything going against us along with playing very badly. Tighty is it a max bet on Leicester to win about Evens?

[TightEnd]

Leeds vs Leicester City Sky game Saturday. Having watched Leeds last 5 games they are in woeful formed, everything going against us along with playing very badly. Tighty is it a max bet on Leicester to win about Evens?

No!

You aren't telling me anything the market does not know

Leeds got thrashed last time out, in poor form. Leicester win 4 out of 4 going well....the price is pretty efficient isn't it?

[Acidmouse]

Leeds vs Leicester City Sky game Saturday. Having watched Leeds last 5 games they are in woeful formed, everything going against us along with playing very badly. Tighty is it a max bet on Leicester to win about Evens?

No!

You aren't telling me anything the market does not know

Leeds got thrashed last time out, in poor form. Leicester win 4 out of 4 going well....the price is pretty efficient isn't it?

Leeds concede alot of early goals, i have put 2/1 FT Leicester. If that's what you think the odds should be then sure, I have no idea on whats value or not tbh :~) I am just hoping we don't get thrashed.

[Tonji]

Cycling gets back on its bike in the next week with the Tour de San Luis & the Tour Down Under.

I've been occupied by the skiing, so just catching up...

Calling cheapwetsuit!

[jakally]

Leeds vs Leicester City Sky game Saturday. Having watched Leeds last 5 games they are in woeful formed, everything going against us along with playing very badly. Tighty is it a max bet on Leicester to win about Evens?

No!

You aren't telling me anything the market does not know

Leeds got thrashed last time out, in poor form. Leicester win 4 out of 4 going well....the price is pretty efficient isn't it?

Leeds concede alot of early goals, i have put 2/1 FT Leicester. If that's what you think the odds should be then sure, I have no idea on whats value or not tbh :~) I am just hoping we don't get thrashed.

Leeds opened at 3/1 and the play at that point was Leeds.
They are in a bit from that but are probably still a spot of value.
I would price it up something like Leeds 3.4, Draw 3.6, Leicester 2.3.

Having not watched any of the recent games, I may not be factoring in how good Leicester are at present, and how bad Leeds have been, but feel pretty sure the market has it factored in too much.

[TightEnd]

Heineken Cup Update

We have three top try scorer bets. Nalaga (10-1) Medard (28-1 e/w) and Gear

With one round of the Pool games to go:


5
Chris Ashton
5
Naipolioni Nalaga
4
Miles Benjamin
4
Maxime Médard
3
Luke Fitzgerald
3
Luke Marshall
3
David Smith
3
Rhodri Williams
3
Chris Wyles
2
John Afoa

In good news both Clermont (Nalaga) and Toulouse (Medard) are going to win their groups, and this get home quarter-finals. Saracens (Ashton) an away quarter most likely at a french club

We have a couple of live bets here.

[TightEnd]

Big Bash Update

We have Alex Hales top run scorer

Some familiar names to the thread in the to 5 currently

1 Finch, AJ MELR 262
2 Katich, SM PER 243
3 Hussey, MEK SYDT 228
4 Wright, LJ MELS 210
5 Klinger, M ADL 205

Hales has 109, from 5 innings, and we are struggling