Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Cheers Horsey.

Quick question to Sonour and anyone else like Doobs, Camel etc. who understands the Ladbrokes promotion.

If you haven't got £2k spare to bet 80 odd markets and I can't be the only one in that boat surely, what markets should I be looking to exploit?

I'm thinking 1-0 - 5-0 Chelsea, 1-0 and 2-0 Man Utd and first goalscorer bets. Is there any others I should definitely be on?

Thanks in advance for any answers.

Morning. You basically want to be on selections where the Ladbrokes price is as close as possible to the Betfair price. This, in theory, minimises the EV you are sacrificing by betting in an overround market. The offer should theoretically kick in around 50% of the time you have a losing bet, comfortably erasing the small piece of value pie you have to Lads by having the bet itself.

If picking and choosing be biased in favour of selections that don't involve both teams scoring for obvious reasons. If you get through those the next tranche is the goals markets, where you should play the unders.


@Keith.... Maybe, though I know the cashier in the shop, had a lengthy discussion with he and colleague before playing, and the bets went through after both management and security called the shop. They obviously realise they have dropped a massive bollard, but not sure they can really do much if one plays so 'considerately' within their terms.

Apparently if the free bet kicks in, when you hand in your losing slip the free bet slip is printed automatically so I think the only way you won't get your free bets is if the cashier or manager decide not to give them to you.
So if you are going to do a lot of bets in one shop I think you need to clear it with the manager before hand.
My local shop have really encouraged me to do this and are all very excited about it and rooting for both teams to score !
( It is a very quiet shop )

82 free bets to use in a week may cause some quality control issues.  It would be proper balla to put them all on one 10/1 horse.  Immediate Fred hero status I expect.

[Chompy]

Rubbish's galleries definitely incred, wp sir.

The best news to come out of Posh's crap run is that Britt now seems to be on penalties. He has been (I guess) third choice behind McCann and Fatty Tomlin, but McCann was on the pitch when Britt took one on Tuesday, (this almost certainly his last season) and Fatty is never on the pitch thanks to loving red cards more, even, than KFC.

We've played Trannies twice this season and are 10-0 up on aggregate. We need Assomba to net 2+ today and v Notts County on Tuesday combined. If he manages 3-4 we'll be in a position to do some trading.

[horseplayer]

Jermain Defoe's first press conference for Canadian club Toronto could have gone better. "I'm happy to be in the USA"

[tikay]

Jermain Defoe's first press conference for Canadian club Toronto could have gone better. "I'm happy to be in the USA"

Ha!

[TightEnd]

The NFL Conference games are tomorrow night

in a rarity, the four pre-season favourites have made the last four and two corking games await, albeit likely to be different in style

I wouldn't claim there are any inefficiencies in Seattle -3.5 Denver -5.5, and am reluctant to put any sub markets up formally (Overs Moreno rushing yards and Overs Kaepernick rushing yards if you want them)

In Seattle two top notch defenses meet in a huge rivalry with the 49ers. I really like the 49ers to pull off the upset at 6/4. Hot at the right time, Kaepernick has his weapons back to make the offense more threatening and just quietly, Wilson and the Seahawks have been struggling on offense. They haven’t scored more than 27 points in any of their last five games. During that time, Russell Wilson has surpassed the 200-yard mark just once

In Denver its Manning v Brady again. This line has fluctuated wildly all week from -6.5 to -4 and back most of the way again. Unusally the public want the dog here, and went for the Patriots at +6.5. Anything can happen, and going against Brady and Belicheck isn't normally a route to the bank but this is a very different Patriots team. No real top class receiving options and a smash mouth running team

Denver has one of the best offenses seen for a long time, lots of running back options, plenty of receivers and of course Manning. Moreno at RB could have a massive game again, as shorn of Wilfork at Nose Tackle teams run on the Patriots, once they do, and the defense has to counter, Manning will fillet that defense in any one of 5 or 6 different ways

I like Denver and the 49ers here

Denver game points forecast to be 55, Seattle game points one of the all time low quotes at 39 - The Seahawks limit opposition to 14.4 points per game and the 49ers to 17.0 points per outing.

[tikay]

Rich,

What is a "smash mouth running team"?

Incidentally, my weekly UKPC tip was also the 49-ers to win @ 6/4. Amazing coincidence. 

[TightEnd]

Rich,

What is a "smash mouth running team"?

Incidentally, my weekly UKPC tip was also the 49-ers to win @ 6/4. Amazing coincidence. 

The NFL has become a passing league. Big armed Quarterbacks throwing to very tall receivers, and teams putting up points etc

However the league used to be far more about ball control ,establishing the run and throwing by exception

The Patriots had a load of receiving options...Grownkowski, Hernandez and Welker now gone for various reasons and have re-invented themselves (until they replace that talent) as a team that runs effectively. To do this you need good offensive linemen to block

One of the reasons you do this is to control the clock and keep the other offense off the field, as you think your team is unlikely to compete in a shoot out

In an ideal world (Denver) you have both run and pass working alongside each other but the lack of depth of talent on many rosters makes this difficult (salary cap)

so smashmouth - run it hard, often and wear down the opposing defense

Seattle (Lynch) and the 49ers (Gore) both have this at their heart and its no coincidence that run games have come to the fore in the play offs in bad weather

[redarmi]

Well I can't compete with the value of the Ladbrokes offer but think I see a 6/4 shot priced up at 19/10. So suggest £40 with BetVictor for Hampton and Richmond Borough to win against Dulwich Hamlet. Is that amount alright for the liquidity of the market and for the protection of a prized account? Whatever you are comfortable with Tikay.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-hampton-and-richmond/winner

Hamlet have played their last two games with their new stand in goalkeeper, and lost both. Of the last game he was at fault for both. Go to 2.50 (rash giveaway of a penalty after a decent save) and 6.50 (the worst dealing of a tame cross I think I have ever seen) for the goals Kingstonian scored against Hamlet in the link below and you will see what I mean. It may look harsh I am having a go, but I can just tell he is a liability and is probably stressing out his backline.



Despite this Hamlet are a good footballing side and have the lions share of possession in most games. They can push forward very quickly, and on the ball their passing from the back to front is good but often where they fall flat is the conversion to goals and they aren't incredibly threatening. They haven't a good striker at the moment and have no one with enough shot power to threaten from range so teams with a decent amount of sense like Kingstonian here, just get men behind the ball and play very deep. As they know Hamlet would be threatening if they found it easier to get in behind in the box for more of a tap in type goal. So teams are countering their threat more here. But this applies to the better teams in this league that aren't entirely blown away by Hamlet, as Hamlet have a naughty record against most of the mid to lower table teams. Kingstonian gave them a tough game here as they are in the top 4 and rivals.

One of Hamlet's players I follow on Twitter had this to say, "Knackered after today's game..Go again next week .. Passing teams off the pitch but need to be more clinical.. #dhfc" Which backs up what i say. Conditions after quite a bit of rain this week in South London are going to be poor which goes against Hamlet's style of passing on the deck. It has undone them before when they have been pegged back by more direct teams.

I do not know too much about how Hampton and Richmond Borough play but did see this in a report from their manager after their last game talking about the threat of Hamlet.

“They knock the ball around and I would pay good money to watch Erhun Otzumer every week, but we are not going to do anything special to counter them,” he said.
“It would be doing our players a disservice to say we are aiming to nullify them.”

Interesting, depends how they play to see if that is relevant to a direct style but their recent form of winning 4 and drawing 2 in their last 6 is good. Also the fact that in that run of games they beat Wealdstone away (2nd) and Kingstonian at home (3rd) 1-3 and 4-1 respectively showing that they probably have a finishing edge that Hamlet are lacking. Both of those teams Hamlet have lost to recently.

I think the price is probably wrong because the fact that Hamlet have a new keeper in probably isn't factored and they may have factored in Hamlet in 4th at home playing a 12th placed side too much into the price.

With the things I have considered and not trying to delve too deep I would say 19/10 is too good a price not to bet, would say it should be 6/4.

If you want to look at the form of both teams or any other stats, I think this is the best site online for the division.

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/isthprem

I realised as I got into this that I need to stop being so verbose with tips, I think I do it to try and show my working out to give it a huge amount of legitimacy because normally i have shown off to be a bit of an ice cream! But I want to change dammit! A tip of this length is not happening again, and annoyingly this has a chance of being postponed, so that would be another huge post rebuffed by the game not actually going ahead!

This is a superb post and what Fred is all about for me.

[Karabiner]

I see Nadal is playing Monfils in Oz and can't help wondering if the French fans shout:

"Allez Mon Fils".

[tikay]

Well I can't compete with the value of the Ladbrokes offer but think I see a 6/4 shot priced up at 19/10. So suggest £40 with BetVictor for Hampton and Richmond Borough to win against Dulwich Hamlet. Is that amount alright for the liquidity of the market and for the protection of a prized account? Whatever you are comfortable with Tikay.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/non-league/isthmian-premier/dulwich-v-hampton-and-richmond/winner

Hamlet have played their last two games with their new stand in goalkeeper, and lost both. Of the last game he was at fault for both. Go to 2.50 (rash giveaway of a penalty after a decent save) and 6.50 (the worst dealing of a tame cross I think I have ever seen) for the goals Kingstonian scored against Hamlet in the link below and you will see what I mean. It may look harsh I am having a go, but I can just tell he is a liability and is probably stressing out his backline.



Despite this Hamlet are a good footballing side and have the lions share of possession in most games. They can push forward very quickly, and on the ball their passing from the back to front is good but often where they fall flat is the conversion to goals and they aren't incredibly threatening. They haven't a good striker at the moment and have no one with enough shot power to threaten from range so teams with a decent amount of sense like Kingstonian here, just get men behind the ball and play very deep. As they know Hamlet would be threatening if they found it easier to get in behind in the box for more of a tap in type goal. So teams are countering their threat more here. But this applies to the better teams in this league that aren't entirely blown away by Hamlet, as Hamlet have a naughty record against most of the mid to lower table teams. Kingstonian gave them a tough game here as they are in the top 4 and rivals.

One of Hamlet's players I follow on Twitter had this to say, "Knackered after today's game..Go again next week .. Passing teams off the pitch but need to be more clinical.. #dhfc" Which backs up what i say. Conditions after quite a bit of rain this week in South London are going to be poor which goes against Hamlet's style of passing on the deck. It has undone them before when they have been pegged back by more direct teams.

I do not know too much about how Hampton and Richmond Borough play but did see this in a report from their manager after their last game talking about the threat of Hamlet.

“They knock the ball around and I would pay good money to watch Erhun Otzumer every week, but we are not going to do anything special to counter them,” he said.
“It would be doing our players a disservice to say we are aiming to nullify them.”

Interesting, depends how they play to see if that is relevant to a direct style but their recent form of winning 4 and drawing 2 in their last 6 is good. Also the fact that in that run of games they beat Wealdstone away (2nd) and Kingstonian at home (3rd) 1-3 and 4-1 respectively showing that they probably have a finishing edge that Hamlet are lacking. Both of those teams Hamlet have lost to recently.

I think the price is probably wrong because the fact that Hamlet have a new keeper in probably isn't factored and they may have factored in Hamlet in 4th at home playing a 12th placed side too much into the price.

With the things I have considered and not trying to delve too deep I would say 19/10 is too good a price not to bet, would say it should be 6/4.

If you want to look at the form of both teams or any other stats, I think this is the best site online for the division.

http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/isthprem

I realised as I got into this that I need to stop being so verbose with tips, I think I do it to try and show my working out to give it a huge amount of legitimacy because normally i have shown off to be a bit of an ice cream! But I want to change dammit! A tip of this length is not happening again, and annoyingly this has a chance of being postponed, so that would be another huge post rebuffed by the game not actually going ahead!

This is a superb post and what Fred is all about for me.

I hope it was not all in vain, there must be doubts that the game will go ahead. 3 Isthmian Leagie games, all in or near London, have been postponed already, though at present, it is still on. Pitch Inspection is at Noon, I believe.

[rinswun]

According to Twitter, the inspection has been cancelled and the game is on. Also spotted on Twitter, Dulwich signed a new defender late this week. Might shore up the defense? As I said, I don't think Hampton are a bad price by any means, I just think it's probably about right. Looks like the current form is built into the price as typically I'd expect a team in 12th away to a team in 4th to be around 3/1.

[tikay]

Bear with me on this. I am probably an idiot, but as to the best of my knowledge Marky hasn't posted about this yet I am probably safe from the knockers

Aston Villa are 14-1 to win at Anfield tomorrow

- We know their style is more suited to playing on the counter away from home with (preferably) Agbonlahor and Weimann playing off Benteke

- We know that with Vlaar back, a defensive organiser, they are more robust at the back

- We have seen the first flickerings of a return to form from Benteke, against Arsenal

The record this season is Home P11 W 2 D 2 L7, Away W4 D 3 L3, 8 goals scored at home, 12 goals scored away

..so this does back up they are more effective when they don't have to come on to the game and can counter


Everyone knows Liverpool's home record - won 10 of their last 11 home league games (W10 D0 L1) and won the last seven in a row. Thats priced in at Liverpool 1/5

Is there any argument at all for going contrarian and laying Liverpool, backing Villa, Villa on the handicap (13/10 +2 is available)?

I think I like Villa +2. I shall now go for a long walk to clear my head.

I am not touting for bets, but I've been reminded about this.

Current outright prices are......


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-aston-villa/winner


There are, as the Post suggests, various other ways of getting against Liverpool here, most of which at prices which presumably derive from the 14/1 or so Outright.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

I am blaming the BBC's weather page for the dismal tip yesterday. However today there is a decent bet to be had in the Heineken cup. We have Toulon having to go to Scotland to play Glasgow. Toulon have already qualified and should be playing to get a home fixture in the next phase. However at long odds on they are not to be trusted to perform in the cold and wet. This is from the BBC website

The home club say that extra work had been done on the surface following a couple of recent postponements because of a waterlogged pitch.
"A review of the pitch took place this afternoon and it was deemed playable," they stated.
Glasgow must win to have a slim chance of qualifying for the Amlin Cup.


Ideal for opposing the CESMs.

Suggest £20 on Glasgow @ 13/5 with Betvictor

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

I am blaming the BBC's weather page for the dismal tip yesterday. However today there is a decent bet to be had in the Heineken cup. We have Toulon having to go to Scotland to play Glasgow. Toulon have already qualified and should be playing to get a home fixture in the next phase. However at long odds on they are not to be trusted to perform in the cold and wet. This is from the BBC website

The home club say that extra work had been done on the surface following a couple of recent postponements because of a waterlogged pitch.
"A review of the pitch took place this afternoon and it was deemed playable," they stated.
Glasgow must win to have a slim chance of qualifying for the Amlin Cup.


Ideal for opposing the CESMs.

Suggest £20 on Glasgow @ 13/5 with Betvictor

Afternoon hector. Yes, that pitch never looked too good last night.

I would assume that the description of "playable" is code for "quagmire", which will suit Glasgow, and not suit Toulon, presumably.

We gotta keep opposing the CESM's.

BET PLACED

[horseplayer]