Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Fred had a few draw doubles and trebles on premier league when one firm were best priced consistently about them couple years ago on weeks where the matchups were pretty even. Think that year was hardly any draws obviously

[Dubai]

Just checked was 13/56. Might have just been me betting year before

[Dubai]

Yeah 2011 I'm thinking of- was 5/56. In a league that should have been very competitive

[arbboy]

I had a draw super yankee the first week this year when every game was a virtual flip.  First time in the events history that has happened as far as i am aware as taylor has always been big odds on for years in most of his game.  Safe to say taylor got drilled 7-0 and all 5 didnt end up a draw even though the first game went big odds on in running for a draw.  I am losing on these bets over a relatively small sample but pretty sure the maths is right and you just have to ride out the swings.

[Omm]

Its nowhere near as complicated as it sounds.  For the draw to happen each player has to win 6 legs.  Therefore if you think about it as spinning a coin you need exactly 6 heads and exactly 6 tails. 

The assumptions are as follows: Firstly that each individual leg is totally independent from each other ( it can be argued in a game like darts about confidence/mind games/momentum that this is not the case but i generally think each leg is independent).  Secondly although each leg isn't a coin flip in the sense that the player throwing first is around a 65/35 fav to win the leg this is countered by the fact that he is obv a 35/65 dog in the other 6 legs where he throws 2nd therefore over the whole 12 legs this effectively balances out to each leg being a 50/50 flip even though each leg never is if you follow.  This assumes that one players scoring style isn't more conducive to winning legs throwing first than 2nd.  Given both players are a flip to win the game then its fair to assume that this wouldn't be the case in the vast majority of cases.

Therefore the calculation of exactly 6 flips being heads out of 12 is the likelihood of the match effectively being a draw which comes out at 0.2255859 = 22.56% or 100/22.56= 4.43 as a decimal or 3.43/1 as a fractional price.

This bet was always value in the old format of best of 14 legs where the draw was obviously 7-7 where if you do the same calc but exactly 7 out of 14 the correct price came to 3.77/1 as a fractional price.  With hearn adopting the shorter best of 12 leg matches now it is even more value although the firms can continued to offer 4/1 or bigger generally about the outcome presumably because hardly any casual punter bets the draw and they are happy to put additional margin into the 2 outcomes which they do lay much more of (ie player A and B) to increase their long term theoretical margin for the product.  As a result we can benefit from swimming against the tide so to speak on a regular basis.

Great stuff, thanks very much. This sort of thing helps me to get to a higher level of thinking.

[kpnuts]

Any Fred regs fancy a Cheltenham preview evening tonight at 7pm near Fenchurch Street?, I can bring three punters but I may have one already. It's a 3-course dinner and it won't cost you. Daryl Jacob, Nick Williams and me (!) are on the panel, maybe one other but I forget who.

 They asked me to bring people who like punting. Bit busy this week and I forgot.

 Ridiculously I promised my friend I'd play his charity poker tournament and I have to leave after we do day 1 and the starters are had.

 Can PM me or post here.

Hope the panel arrive in good form, I took a chunky slice of the 7/2 Veauce de Sivola (Jacob riding for Williams) last night for today's 3.40 @ Taunton!

3 heroes on panel tonight.

[Dubai]

I had a draw super yankee the first week this year when every game was a virtual flip.  First time in the events history that has happened as far as i am aware as taylor has always been big odds on for years in most of his game.  Safe to say taylor got drilled 7-0 and all 5 didnt end up a draw even though the first game went big odds on in running for a draw.  I am losing on these bets over a relatively small sample but pretty sure the maths is right and you just have to ride out the swings.

Yeah I think they are generally great bets but I'm significantly down on them. Obv only need one good week and pays for rest of years worth of bets

[tikay]

Darts bet for tonight

Prem league games which are close to a flip are pretty much always value on the draw.  True maths price based on a binomial distribution calculation makes the draw around a 7/2 shot to 100%.  Closest game tonight is Newton Anderson which is virtually a flip on paper.  I will be looking to get north of 9/2 on bf pre match once the market tightens.  There is obviously not much liquidity in the market currently and all firms are 4/1 which is still value but 9/2 or more should be available on the machine closer to kick off.

£50 recommended at 9/2 or bigger if available later on bf or with fixed odds firms.  If not then £30 at 4/1 is acceptable for a smaller investment given the edge is smaller and/or you are not available to place the bet later with TV commitments etc.

What may seem simple to you, may not be so simple to me, as I seem to have fell at the first hurdle.

Do you mean CHISNALL and Anderson?

Sorry to give the impression of being a total thicko. I was coached by Eso Kral.

[tikay]

Tikay if you haven't got the Luke Wright bet on don't bother now. Best price is 6/1 now.

I appear to have missed this completely, sorry bud.

[arbboy]

yes chis v ando sorry to not confirm the actual match

[arbboy]

yes chis v ando sorry to not confirm the actual match

Would love eso to coach me on how to run like him.  I would be retired by now!

[tikay]

yes chis v ando sorry to not confirm the actual match

Gotcha.

Will wait awhile to see how the prices develop. Currently 4/1 across the board with the Firms, 5.2 with Betfair.

It is the last match tonight, so will get on board at best price later. I think 5.2 minus commission of 5% is pretty close to 4/1.

[redarmi]

I have used binomial distribution for these before and they come out as value for sure but can someone with better maths knowledge verify that the approach is valid here.  Like Mark says with the throw an individual player is actually more like 65/35 so by calculating on the basis of the average price it isn't strictly speaking correct but now, thinking about it, of more importance is the fact that you calculate binomial distribution on the basis of a known number of trials (in this case 12) but that isn't the case here because if a player reaches 7 games they stop and also we aren't allowing for things like momentum especially when you get to 5-0, 6-1, 6-0 type scores or the fact it isn't actually a flip in this spot (I would guess the legs are more like 70/30 and 60/40).  I think they probably are value but I don't think the correct price is 7/2.  At best it is a shade under 4/1 I think which is basically the price at the moment.

[horseplayer]

Calling Tikay

[arbboy]

I have used binomial distribution for these before and they come out as value for sure but can someone with better maths knowledge verify that the approach is valid here.  Like Mark says with the throw an individual player is actually more like 65/35 so by calculating on the basis of the average price it isn't strictly speaking correct but now, thinking about it, of more importance is the fact that you calculate binomial distribution on the basis of a known number of trials (in this case 12) but that isn't the case here because if a player reaches 7 games they stop and also we aren't allowing for things like momentum especially when you get to 5-0, 6-1, 6-0 type scores or the fact it isn't actually a flip in this spot (I would guess the legs are more like 70/30 and 60/40).  I think they probably are value but I don't think the correct price is 7/2.  At best it is a shade under 4/1 I think which is basically the price at the moment.

agree with this and would be open to more advanced maths feedback to confirm the above although the lack of exactly 12 trials surely doesnt matter because we are betting on 6 of each so once 7 of one happens our bet is lost.   I agree though the bigger factor is the momentum factor at 5-0 6-1 etc as to whether the legs are still priced as pre game.