Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Fred can have a £10EW with me @ 6/1 PP?

Yes please!

Will ship you £20 shortly.

Top man, ta.

BOOKED

£10 EW @ 6/1, Jacobs, FGS, one third odds, 5 places. This is IN ADDITION to the two previous bets.

BET PLACED

Can you get in him anytime with bet365?  You get the same price (2/1) but unlimited places vs 5 with Paddy.  Not only is it slightly better, but seems a bet that is less likely to raise a flag or get restricted than the each way.   I think both firms are aware that their each way markets can be exploited.

[Eso Kral]

Fred can have a £10EW with me @ 6/1 PP?

Yes please!

Will ship you £20 shortly.

Top man, ta.

BOOKED

£10 EW @ 6/1, Jacobs, FGS, one third odds, 5 places. This is IN ADDITION to the two previous bets.

BET PLACED

Can you get in him anytime with bet365?  You get the same price (2/1) but unlimited places vs 5 with Paddy.  Not only is it slightly better, but seems a bet that is less likely to raise a flag or get restricted than the each way.   I think both firms are aware that their each way markets can be exploited.

Unfortunately I dont have a usable 365 acc

[tikay]

Fred can have a £10EW with me @ 6/1 PP?

Yes please!

Will ship you £20 shortly.

Top man, ta.

BOOKED

£10 EW @ 6/1, Jacobs, FGS, one third odds, 5 places. This is IN ADDITION to the two previous bets.

BET PLACED

Can you get in him anytime with bet365?  You get the same price (2/1) but unlimited places vs 5 with Paddy.  Not only is it slightly better, but seems a bet that is less likely to raise a flag or get restricted than the each way.   I think both firms are aware that their each way markets can be exploited.

Too late now, but yes, I'll try that next time.

It's quite a thing, learning how to work round these Restrictions. Wish I could start afresh, with "clean" accounts.

[horseplayer]

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/07-2013/green-lumber-fallacy.aspx?refer-xsbindex

decent article

[horseplayer]

Schalke pr man responds to claims in the Times Hitler was a fan

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-hurdle/name-the-favourite

sure some of the jumps boys will have a view on this market

[Tonji]

Morning Horsey, this looks up your street.

Documentary which follows veteran Serbian coach Zoran Djordjevic as he seeks to forge South Sudan's first national football team, a fascinating portrait of the birth of a nation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03wctxp/Storyville_20132014_Soccer_Coach_Zoran_and_his_African_Tigers/

[horseplayer]

thanks tonji

looks ideal thanks

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Bit of a curates egg yesterday in the tennis. Our bet on Ramos went down the pan with a 3rd set loss in a game he should have won.

Berdych won and is in today's semifinal and plays Kolschrieber. He is priced at 1-4 to win and land the e/w part of the bet for anyone on it.

Dimitrov won the very tricky match against Gulbis, again in the final set. Tonight he plays Murray and I like his chances a lot. Dimitrov can be backed at just over 2-1 for anyone who has not yet got an interest in him. If he wins tonight then I think Dimitrov will be priced about 1-2 to win the final.

Another awesome gallery Mr Rubbish.

[exstream]

ladbrokes road to cheltenham offer will be at 1:45
yesterday was quevega at 6/4, really good.

[Bad Beat]

 Probably some value in that Champ Hurdle fav market if anyone can get on. Any other feels like it's 1000/1 unless Annie Power runs in which case maybe it's 20/1. MTOY should probably be bigger so maybe the front three are all very small value. Don't really fancy one at those prices but none are bad bets.

 Betfair sports book and Geoff Banks now NRNB. Hills haven't really done this in the last few years and Ladbrokes are usually much earlier. Looks like they aren't going to until Monday at the earliest at this rate. Corals obviously an irrelevance.

[tikay]

Firstly would like to thank Tighty for inviting me back to the forum after a near 4 year gap at DTD at the weekend.  After taking plenty from this thread in the past 2 years and not being able to give anything back apart from private skype discussions with redarmi/Mrs Bandit/Tighty

Interesting point for discussion here.

A lot has been spoken recently about the EPL outright market on this fred and it being perfectly formed etc etc 'all the info is out there' etc etc. Whilst i agree with that in most markets there are plenty of other factors which 'alter' these markets this time of the season and historically has always been a profitable way of punting for me over the years exploiting firms ante post positions in 'giving' away profits to green up on their ante post liabilities on teams they haven't laid 'to get a bit in the book' or 'it suits to lay' blah blah blah.

I think this season is even more likely than ever to provide these opportunities for the following reason.  Looking at how the 4 football league tables in england stand at the minute virtually every mug ew acca/yankee/lucky 15 that punters have placed at the start of the season on the ante post fav or 2nd fav is going to win at least the place part of the bet with some truely massive potential liabilities running up on the win parts of these bets.

EPL is obvious front two in the market ante post are sitting 1st and 2nd and Manchester Utd who were co favs of 3 when the betting opened drifted like a barge towards the start of the season as money poured in ew for arsenal and liverpool.

Championship the front two in the ante post market were qpr and leics.  Div 1 Wolves and brentford the same.  Div 2 Chesterfield and Scunthorpe the same.  Luton in the conference.  With the exception of qpr all of these teams are massively odds on to finish in the top 3 of their league so virtually every 'mug' ew acca/multiple bet will have already copped for the vast majority of customers for the place part of the bet.  The liabilities running onto the win parts of these bets could truely be huge and a lot of firms systems will not be able to compute the liabilities they actually face on these accurately.  I think the two key teams the layers will be wanting to get 'beat' will be QPR and Wolves who were both such solid favs for their division compared to their other rivals and will be the cornerstone of so many multis.  If they can get QPR out of the top 3 a lot of the place multiples will lose.

Its these types of situations which could easily give us the opportunity to find firms 'happy to lay' certain teams 'over the odds' up until the end of the season at bigger prices than they should be.  I think we should be actively looking at these markets over the next 2 months for these types of opportunities.

With that in mind the current EPL outright market and top 2 market looks quite out of line with expectations especially the liverpool and arsenal prices.  In the outright market Liverpool are 8.6-8.8 on bf arsenal are 9.0-9.2 on bf both obviously for decent money.  Both are 8/1 with the fixed odds firms if you shop around.  However in the top 2 market its somewhat different with arsenal a 2/1 shot and liverpool nearly a 4/1 shot on bf.  Surely these two markets are a function of each other and these differences should never be in place to this degree.  To add further data to the case sporting index have arsenals season points 2.5 points higher than liverpool.

Looking at the data above it would appear that either liverpool are a great lay at under 8/1 on bf in the outright market and/or arsenal are a great bet at 8/1 comm free with a selection of firms.  I am not entirely sure which gives us the biggest edge.  Happy to receive feedback from the elders on here but this market has to have value in it somewhere given these distortions.

Goal difference is obviously a factor in liverpool's favour but is never such an issue to have such a difference in the top 2 prices.  We can assume that sporting index's quotes will absorb all remaining fixture/scheduling differences between the two teams.

My recommendation is a £100 win bet on arsenal at 8/1 although i have backed arsenal personally and laid liverpool at 8.6 today i dont really want to open my account on the fred laying an ante post 8/1 shot.

Look forward to everyone's thoughts.

Morning Mr Arrboy.

Fred needed you, where have you been? Oh, wait......

Very much enjoyed that Post, & subsequent stuff, you will be a great asset to us I believe.

So, this Arsenal Bet. I followed the logic just fine, but I just have 2 questions.

1) Is this an outright bet purely on price, or is there a potential trade down the line?

2) We already have £60 @ 15/8 for Arsenal to finish Top Three. Presumably, both bets can work OK independently if they are, or were, value?

I'm quite happy to climb aboard as suggested, but just need to learn how to tell my arse from my elbow first.   

Answers to Questions

1) This is an outright bet purely based on price/logic given the data presented.  I don't have any view that arsenal 'are certs' to win the EPL this year etc etc.  I don't operate like that.  They should be shorter than Liverpool by all known data in the market place and they are not therefore it is a bet.  There is always the potential to trade down the line with any bet but i am firmly in the camel/grumpy camp that this should always be done independently and treated totally as a separate bet and the previous bet ignored.  Although i appreciate that Mrs Bandit/Chompy often back something for way more than it is comfortable bankroll wise and lay it shorter at the same time on the machine if possible to actually get an even better price for their bet for the stakes the bankroll is comfortable with.  I am all for doing that option if and when it is available but that is not available in this case as arsenal are the same price on the exchanges as they are with the fixed odds firms.

2) This is an issue to some degree as you cant keep piling into bets which are related with unlimited funds when you work on a fixed bankroll.  However i don't see this as an issue in this case.  As most people who know me will tell you i am a bankroll nit when it comes to staking etc i always go on the side of caution however a lot of the stuff i do will be at odds on and quite often big odds on which might seem high risk but as long as the margin is there i never worry about whether something is 1/100 or 100/1.

With this in mind i would really like to recommend laying Liverpool at 8.4 to win £25 on bf with a liability of £185 (they have contracted further overnight in the outright market from 8.8 to 8.4 for no known reason) however i appreciate this ties up significant working capital over an extended period including Cheltenham so i will recommend avoiding this unless the bankroll going forward medium term can afford this amount of cash tied up for up to 10 weeks (the market on bf will be settled as soon as its mathematically certain that Liverpool can't win the league)

Good work, thank you, & that all makes sense, even to me.

Especially pleased to see you use the name grumpy for one of our Elders.

I don't have a problem tying thast cash up for 10 weeks (probably a little less, in fact......) so I think that may be the way to go.

Liverpool are currently 8.6 to Lay, should I insert 8.4 & wait to see if we get Matched? Pardon my ignorance on Betty, which I find a bit confusing.

Yes i would insert 8.4 for £25 and it would get matched within 24 hours given there is only £400 waiting at 8.4.  There is no rush to get matched as there are no games until Saturday.  Take the 8/1 win on arsenal with victor and/or paddy to avoid paying commission on the bet.

OK, I'm all set to do this.

Just to confirm I've got this right, you are suggesting......

£25 LAY of Liverpool @ 8.4 (liability £185), & £100 WIN Arsenal, with the Bookies, @ 8/1?

[exstream]

ladbrokes road to cheltenham offer will be at 1:45
yesterday was quevega at 6/4, really good.

half an hour

[Bad Beat]

 Next 15 minutes you get 6/4 with Corals Free Thinking in the 2.40 Doncaster trading 2.08-2.1...Mobile and internet only and no idea if there is a max.

[sonour]

Sure De Grugy 3/1 Ladbrokes for next 8 mins
Champion Chase