Tips for Tikay

[Omm]

anyone know what the scoring system for dancing on ice final is?  viewers vote/panel vote?  Views on the current prices given Ray being in the vote off last night?  My personal view is that surely rays supporters will come out to vote after the shock of him being in the pllay off this week and that 1/3 Ray looks reasonably big and an over reaction to last night

Pretty sure the judges scores have no influence in the final. Top 2 will skate to Bolero. Your right Ray will def get a bounce from this week, probably the best thing that could happen to him as he was always going to be saved by the judges and it will give his fans a wake up call. That being said I wouldn't be rushing to take 1/3. Your assuming his fan base is bigger than the girls. Yes he is popular but Beth is getting votes because the judges are against her and the public always like sticking two fingers up at the pros. Hayley's fan base is relatively big and her partner - Dan is a very popular skater with a fan base all of his own ( same amount of twitter followers as Ray) As well as this Hayley and Dan should be doing Jai Ho in the final which will boost their votes and a lot of activity on twitter suggests their fans vote numerous numerous numerous (yes that many) times. Also I think it's the first time Ray was not top of the leader board and he finished in the bottom two. It seems Beth might be getting more votes than anyone as she has generally been near the bottom by the judges the last few weeks but not in the skate off.



Taking all that into consideration any one of the final three can win it. If there was any justice Ray would win for being the best but Chris Fountain was just as good a skater and he never won. As well as this Ray has always been a great skater, where the girls have got better each week and shown a big improvement.

No, real justice would be Hayley winning so that I can record my first TFT winning bet. Good luck if you lump on Ray - he does deserve it. But I couldn't put anyone off any of them, I even took abit of the 10-1 pp had on Beth last night.

Ray has been friendless today on bf out to around 4/9 and they are asking for 'unders' on the two birds who are 5/1 hills and 10/1 lads people asking for unders on the machine.  Anyone with more knowledge of the situation than me might find the 'right' one to be on at the prices.

Hayley still available now with sb and lads at 5.5 and can be layed on bf at 4.9 for upto £350 for anyone that wants it. Seems to have been a big move for her.

[GreekWay]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

[arbboy]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

[Doobs]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

Irving was a definite at 9/4.  2/1 not so good, so probably Wicklow Brave given he is best price and short enough.

[Tal]

Have been playing chess tonight, so just turned my 'phone on to receive a link to this picture:



Would have preferred one with John Terry in it. I assume that'll be with us in due course 

[sonour]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

Hi Mark,

How about £16.67 each ? You can only get 3 refunds ( 2nd 3rd and 4th )
Or back and lay and lay the place. Locks in just over £10 for 1st 2nd and 3rd, just above break even for unplaced and £50 up for 4th.

[GreekWay]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

[arbboy]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

I sort of answered it tounge in cheek without really thinking about it tbh Mrs Bandit.  Hope you are well.  I will have a think about it and answer it seriously in order to maximize profit.

[Tal]

Well done to the boss who won the "Most profit from Misclicks" award at the 2014 British Betting and Poker awards tonight

Did Blonde win something?

Also, is he wearing a shoulder bag? Is he not stopping?

[sonour]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

Yes you can do that. But you need to lay the horse in the place market as well. It isn't a free bet at PP it is a cash refund.

[GreekWay]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

I sort of answered it tounge in cheek without really thinking about it tbh Mrs Bandit.  Hope you are well.  I will have a think about it and answer it seriously in order to maximize profit.

Mrs??? Mrs??? That sounded embarassing :-p

I will be waiting for your suggestion. I never say no to free money.

[Doobs]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

Yes you can do that. But you need to lay the horse in the place market as well. It isn't a free bet at PP it is a cash refund.

You don't need to lay anything.  Laying is -EV.  Whilst it is attractive to reduce variance in the short run, laying offers loses money in the long run.  More true if you have a 5% account than a 2% one.

Ignore what I said earlier, I am not sure Wicklow Brave is any good, it is some way off Betfair.  Irving or Vantour may well be better still.

[GreekWay]

I don't know if this has been posted before.

New #CheltFest betting offer from Paddy. Free Bet on Supreme Novices Hurdle - money back if your horse finishes 2/3/4

I think its £50 max

Any ideas how to benefit from this offer?

Back 4 horses in the race each for £12.50 hope the biggest priced one wins and the others come 2nd 3rd and 4th.

I was thinking of backing a horse with Paddy and laying it on Betfair and hope that it will lose so I can then cash in the free bet.

Yes you can do that. But you need to lay the horse in the place market as well. It isn't a free bet at PP it is a cash refund.

I haven't read the &Cs as I am on my phone. I will do that tomorrow and post.

Generally the bookies when they say moneyback they mean as a free bet as they want this money back.

[arbboy]

You have to remember with the current power prices they are NRNB and betfair isn't.  That's the main reason for the difference in the current prices.  I think the best option personally is to probably back the 3rd or 4th fav for the race on the day of the race when the paddy power prices will be a lot closer to the true prices rather than as they currently are.  Backing the 3rd or 4th fav will give you a decent chance of getting your money back (its cash back rather than a free bet as far as i am aware) plus maximising your potential return from the horse winning the actual race.  Backing the fav will probably the most likely way to get your refund but the upside of the payout if the horse wins the race is less.  Sure doobs will be able to advise on the maths of it all.

Doobs is right it eats into ev laying.  However when i want to just convert free bets into cash (like the ladbrokes offer a few weeks ago when u have 80 £25 free bets) i still prefer to back and lay 50/1 golfers sometimes at 49/1 on bf (50.0) to reduce the variance and 49 times out of 50 just lift the £25 out of bf in cash minus the 2% commission.  Just a personal choice as you could easily burn 100 free bets backing 50/1 shots which are truely 50/1 shots and get no actual cash return.  Each to their own i suppose.  Depends on numerous factors including your bankroll/risk aversion level etc etc

[sonour]

You have to remember with the current power prices they are NRNB and betfair isn't.  That's the main reason for the difference in the current prices.  I think the best option personally is to probably back the 3rd or 4th fav for the race on the day of the race when the paddy power prices will be a lot closer to the true prices rather than as they currently are.  Backing the 3rd or 4th fav will give you a decent chance of getting your money back (its cash back rather than a free bet as far as i am aware) plus maximising your potential return from the horse winning the actual race.  Backing the fav will probably the most likely way to get your refund but the upside of the payout if the horse wins the race is less.  Sure doobs will be able to advise on the maths of it all.

Doobs is right it eats into ev laying.  However when i want to just convert free bets into cash (like the ladbrokes offer a few weeks ago when u have 80 £25 free bets) i still prefer to back and lay 50/1 golfers sometimes at 49/1 on bf (50.0) to reduce the variance and 49 times out of 50 just lift the £25 out of bf in cash minus the 2% commission.  Just a personal choice as you could easily burn 100 free bets backing 50/1 shots which are truely 50/1 shots and get no actual cash return.  Each to their own i suppose.  Depends on numerous factors including your bankroll/risk aversion level etc etc

Agree prices will be closer on the day.