Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Sailed through, Tighty. What else could you have been watching on TV last night?

[Tonji]

spooky, I've been cataloging Victorian photographs this week.

Click to see full-size image.

Quiz name the photographer?

[tikay]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

Can still bet on it, although two of the eight groups have been decided upon (working and pastoral), so we have a quarter of the finalists. We have a Rottweiler and a Samoyed in the final.

Utility is now Evens best price. The judge of Best In Show is a utility man himself, breeding Siberian Huskies and Finnish Lapphunds.

Fancy a Banzai?

£10 on Pastoral at 16/1 with the red shouty one. Ever heard of a Samoyed? A judge of the same unusual surname (am going with wife) put a Samoyed second in the Pastoral group (out of 32 breeds) in 2011. Means relatively little and there will be some very good dogs out there in the other groups, but I'd be surprised if we are making a terrible bet. The margins in dog judging at that level are absolutely miniscule and sometimes it comes down to the individual taste of the judge. Making a name for a breed might be a consideration, too. Champion NIkara Diamond Dancer JW was a talented youngster (hence the Junior Warrant award at the end of his name) and has won three  (challenge certificates) major titles in his breed (hence the Champion title).

I can have a proper look at lunchtime if people are really that keen, but it is going to be a subjective decision made by one guy on Sunday night.

Fancy it?

Good grief Tal, you never cease to amaze. Adzy & Kimber will need new keyboards.

Yes, I'm deffo interested, what could be more fun?

How on EARTH do you know all this nonsense? Ladies frocks, working & pastoral (what?) dogs. You are incred.

[tikay]

Sailed through, Tighty. What else could you have been watching on TV last night?

Grumpy beating up some poor bookie, maybe?

[sonour]

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.

For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

Understand this point to a certain extent and can see both sides of the argument.  Trouble is its like having a 6 sided dice and a 4 rolling in is offered at 6/1 by a firm.  You back it as its obviously the best bet in the race because the firm bet 4/1 each the other 5 outcomes and 6/1 the 4.  Then another firm goes 6/1 the 5 and 4/1 the other 5 outcomes and so on and so forth.  Eventually u have backed 4 of the 6 outcomes in the race all at 6/1 with 4 different firms (to use the CHurdle example Adz has used here) and it seems like we are no longer 'punting' in an old fashioned sense because we have backed more than half of the field.  However, in this example we still have a great bet as we have backed a truely priced 1/2 shot at 3/4 (i think my maths is correct here please feel free to correct me if i am wrong) so we have huge value much more than just backing one of the outcomes rather than all four.  Even if we were offered 7/1 on one of the outcomes of the throw instead of 4 lots of 6/1.  It's more boring/robotic but ultimately backing all 4 makes you more money long term and reduces your variance. Two things any professional gambler/investor would strive for. It's not sexy in the slightest but to those who like an old fashioned 'punt' and to be proved right that we back one horse in the race and 'we knew' etc etc when it wins aren't going to be fans of this approach.

I think the thread has different users from guys who bet for a living to those who are total rec punters who love learning about diff elements of sports betting and a load of semi serious punters inbetween with real specialist knowledge on certain sports.  Everyone has a different agenda for being on the thread and that's where these differences in opinions of how the thread should attack the game differ.  There isn't a right or wrong answer.

I couldn't agree with this more. Surely there is room for doing every +EV offer and also taking a position on a market ?
Adz, I normally agree with you but I don't agree with the bit about clogging up Fred with offers. To me, Fred is never clogged up but often too quiet. Whenever I refresh and there haven't been any new posts I'm always a little disappointed.

[tikay]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

Can still bet on it, although two of the eight groups have been decided upon (working and pastoral), so we have a quarter of the finalists. We have a Rottweiler and a Samoyed in the final.

Utility is now Evens best price. The judge of Best In Show is a utility man himself, breeding Siberian Huskies and Finnish Lapphunds.

Fancy a Banzai?

£10 on Pastoral at 16/1 with the red shouty one. Ever heard of a Samoyed? A judge of the same unusual surname (am going with wife) put a Samoyed second in the Pastoral group (out of 32 breeds) in 2011. Means relatively little and there will be some very good dogs out there in the other groups, but I'd be surprised if we are making a terrible bet. The margins in dog judging at that level are absolutely miniscule and sometimes it comes down to the individual taste of the judge. Making a name for a breed might be a consideration, too. Champion NIkara Diamond Dancer JW was a talented youngster (hence the Junior Warrant award at the end of his name) and has won three  (challenge certificates) major titles in his breed (hence the Champion title).

I can have a proper look at lunchtime if people are really that keen, but it is going to be a subjective decision made by one guy on Sunday night.

Fancy it?

Unforch, Ladbrokes will only permit me £1, and as Tighty prefers we stick to a £5 minimum, that's a no-go for Fred I'm afraid. I've bet it anyway, (off-thread) for the fun factor though.

Keep me updated please. I bet others get on, too. Adzy will be the first. He just will.

[sonour]

Sailed through, Tighty. What else could you have been watching on TV last night?

Grumpy beating up some poor bookie, maybe?

Neil gave the bookie so many chances to excel and he failed miserably on every occasion. Seemed like a nice guy though.

[tikay]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

OK, fair enough, though I'd have been happy to invest a little more on any Mercedes based angle.

[sonour]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

Can still bet on it, although two of the eight groups have been decided upon (working and pastoral), so we have a quarter of the finalists. We have a Rottweiler and a Samoyed in the final.

Utility is now Evens best price. The judge of Best In Show is a utility man himself, breeding Siberian Huskies and Finnish Lapphunds.

Fancy a Banzai?

£10 on Pastoral at 16/1 with the red shouty one. Ever heard of a Samoyed? A judge of the same unusual surname (am going with wife) put a Samoyed second in the Pastoral group (out of 32 breeds) in 2011. Means relatively little and there will be some very good dogs out there in the other groups, but I'd be surprised if we are making a terrible bet. The margins in dog judging at that level are absolutely miniscule and sometimes it comes down to the individual taste of the judge. Making a name for a breed might be a consideration, too. Champion NIkara Diamond Dancer JW was a talented youngster (hence the Junior Warrant award at the end of his name) and has won three  (challenge certificates) major titles in his breed (hence the Champion title).

I can have a proper look at lunchtime if people are really that keen, but it is going to be a subjective decision made by one guy on Sunday night.

Fancy it?

Unforch, Ladbrokes will only permit me £1, and as Tighty prefers we stick to a £5 minimum, that's a no-go for Fred I'm afraid. I've bet it anyway, (off-thread) for the fun factor though.

Keep me updated please. I bet others get on, too. Adzy will be the first. He just will.

How much do you want on Tikay ? I'll be in the shop in 10 mins.
Is the bet Crufts, bet in show from Utility group ?

[tikay]

Sailed through, Tighty. What else could you have been watching on TV last night?

Grumpy beating up some poor bookie, maybe?

Neil gave the bookie so many chances to excel and he failed miserably on every occasion. Seemed like a nice guy though.

Yup, to be fair, he gave him a few tap-ins. The lad is such a nice guy though, & unlike, say, PP or Red Shouty Bloke, the Corporate Culture @ SB&G does not permit him to make or take these random "lay me an even hundred" type things. They do things VERY different there, believe me......

It was a fun Show though, & I pretty much sat out all evening & just listened, there was nothing I could add to their bank of knowledge. Grumpy had me in stitches at times, I confess. 

[tikay]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

Can still bet on it, although two of the eight groups have been decided upon (working and pastoral), so we have a quarter of the finalists. We have a Rottweiler and a Samoyed in the final.

Utility is now Evens best price. The judge of Best In Show is a utility man himself, breeding Siberian Huskies and Finnish Lapphunds.

Fancy a Banzai?

£10 on Pastoral at 16/1 with the red shouty one. Ever heard of a Samoyed? A judge of the same unusual surname (am going with wife) put a Samoyed second in the Pastoral group (out of 32 breeds) in 2011. Means relatively little and there will be some very good dogs out there in the other groups, but I'd be surprised if we are making a terrible bet. The margins in dog judging at that level are absolutely miniscule and sometimes it comes down to the individual taste of the judge. Making a name for a breed might be a consideration, too. Champion NIkara Diamond Dancer JW was a talented youngster (hence the Junior Warrant award at the end of his name) and has won three  (challenge certificates) major titles in his breed (hence the Champion title).

I can have a proper look at lunchtime if people are really that keen, but it is going to be a subjective decision made by one guy on Sunday night.

Fancy it?

Unforch, Ladbrokes will only permit me £1, and as Tighty prefers we stick to a £5 minimum, that's a no-go for Fred I'm afraid. I've bet it anyway, (off-thread) for the fun factor though.

Keep me updated please. I bet others get on, too. Adzy will be the first. He just will.

How much do you want on Tikay ? I'll be in the shop in 10 mins.
Is the bet Crufts, bet in show from Utility group ?

If you could get me up to £10, (even £5 would do) I'd owe you a big favour.

This is the Market......

http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/crufts/best-in-show

[tikay]

PP Messenger

McIlroy enhanced to 10/1 until 4pm

£20 max.

8.8 on Betfair

2 hours late, keep up

Yes sorry. I post when out and about on my phone and its too difficult to read any posts beforehand.

...and that is why it matters not a jot if stuff gets posted twice.

[TightEnd]

Haven't had time to do any real research on this, but I am a keen follower of Cruft's, having been twice (In before the jokes). However, the best in show coming from the UTILITY group is 2/1 Ladbrokes and Odds on with everyone else. Assuming arb, but thought I'd pop it up.

Lol, I would SO like to do this. Is it still available?

First, ladies frocks, now Crufts. Adz will be in Fred Heaven.

Can still bet on it, although two of the eight groups have been decided upon (working and pastoral), so we have a quarter of the finalists. We have a Rottweiler and a Samoyed in the final.

Utility is now Evens best price. The judge of Best In Show is a utility man himself, breeding Siberian Huskies and Finnish Lapphunds.

Fancy a Banzai?

£10 on Pastoral at 16/1 with the red shouty one. Ever heard of a Samoyed? A judge of the same unusual surname (am going with wife) put a Samoyed second in the Pastoral group (out of 32 breeds) in 2011. Means relatively little and there will be some very good dogs out there in the other groups, but I'd be surprised if we are making a terrible bet. The margins in dog judging at that level are absolutely miniscule and sometimes it comes down to the individual taste of the judge. Making a name for a breed might be a consideration, too. Champion NIkara Diamond Dancer JW was a talented youngster (hence the Junior Warrant award at the end of his name) and has won three  (challenge certificates) major titles in his breed (hence the Champion title).

I can have a proper look at lunchtime if people are really that keen, but it is going to be a subjective decision made by one guy on Sunday night.

Fancy it?

Unforch, Ladbrokes will only permit me £1, and as Tighty prefers we stick to a £5 minimum, that's a no-go for Fred I'm afraid. I've bet it anyway, (off-thread) for the fun factor though.

Keep me updated please. I bet others get on, too. Adzy will be the first. He just will.

How much do you want on Tikay ? I'll be in the shop in 10 mins.
Is the bet Crufts, bet in show from Utility group ?

PASTORAL GROUP 16/1

[Tal]

Yes, pastoral. We are opposing the Jolly, Utility.

Right, I'll leave you all to it as I don't have any bets for the Flyball or Agility comps.

I've been to Cruft's twice with our family pet (placed in his class one year, which is quite an achievement) and we did the show circuit for about four years. Some stories. Some of them make chess players seem well rounded and open minded

[tikay]

Big shu 5/1 with paddypower
Cross country chase

I could not find that Online.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/cheltenham-countdown-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1188619

Thanks, the Links really help.

The Restrictions, sadly, don't. We were allowed £1.06. I let them off the 6p.

Still, it's better than the 10p we were allowed on Dodging bullets!


06/03/2014 Single To Win Big Shu to win the Cross Country Chase @ 5/1
 Cheltenham Countdown Specials
 Big Shu to win the Cross Country Chase  Pending £1.00

BET PLACED

can we put something in place like a bet has to be £5+ or don't bother?

Next week is going to be really hectic, lots of bets to account for and the utility of the bet is less than the effort to record it, report it etc (bets of £1.24, £1, £1, £2.50, £2.40 all placed in the last three weeks)

I am sure there are plenty of people who would make it up to a reasonable amount to top the thread up if we request it, as people like marky147 often do, kindly

PM can be sent to me and the spreadsheet can reflect

We may also wish to make the thread hidden/password only/subscription only for big weeks such as Cheltenham, or permanently going forward?

£5 minimum?

As you wish, £5 minimum it is.

I'll still place smaller bets myself (off-thread) though. It can take me 5 minutes to find a Market & see what my Max is, it makes no sense for me to just forget the bet if I can only get £3 or whatever, I may as well take it as I've already invested the time to find it. In my world, a couple of quid is still fun, I don't need to bet big to enjoy betting.  But I understand your angle, the Admin & control is overwhelming.

Subscription-based? Ooh, hot potato.

As you & I know, this has been proposed & discussed, & it might happen, but not in the immediate near-term. Before everyone panics though, it would likely be subscription free to EXISTING regulars.

So if you are not a Fred regular already, it's time you were.....

The problem of course is that it only takes one dafty to pay the Subscription then tell all his mates & the plan is scuppered.

It does not actually trouble me, personally, that lurkers & non-contributors take stuff from us. Live & let live & all that. But it is a bit out of order, I can see the point. 

I think we should not discuss this particular point until Chelters is out of the way. Then we can chew the cud in peace, all of us, & see where it takes us.