Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Massa and Hamilton press fine by me Doobs. As I say, suggest away

I have a Massa black-spot ever since I watched him struggle to get his Ferrari round a lap of a Silverstone GP in tricky conditions in 08, repeatedly, and that black-spot has generally served me well.

If the car is as good as it looks, then value is value.

[tikay]

Racebets between 1-2 are going 8/1 on Oscar Whisky.
Unless no longer doing offers, get as much on as they allow.

Thanks.

We are, for now, still doing Offers.

Even if Fred were not, others may love these, so keep them coming please. It's not just about Fred bets.

[tikay]

Massa and Hamilton press fine by me Doobs. As I say, suggest away

I have a Massa black-spot ever since I watched him struggle to get his Ferrari round a lap of a Silverstone GP in tricky conditions in 08, repeatedly, and that black-spot has generally served me well.

If the car is as good as it looks, then value is value.

Loving this Tighty/Doobs ping-pong.

Doobs to serve, 40-30.

[tikay]

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.

For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

Understand this point to a certain extent and can see both sides of the argument.  Trouble is its like having a 6 sided dice and a 4 rolling in is offered at 6/1 by a firm.  You back it as its obviously the best bet in the race because the firm bet 4/1 each the other 5 outcomes and 6/1 the 4.  Then another firm goes 6/1 the 5 and 4/1 the other 5 outcomes and so on and so forth.  Eventually u have backed 4 of the 6 outcomes in the race all at 6/1 with 4 different firms (to use the CHurdle example Adz has used here) and it seems like we are no longer 'punting' in an old fashioned sense because we have backed more than half of the field.  However, in this example we still have a great bet as we have backed a truely priced 1/2 shot at 3/4 (i think my maths is correct here please feel free to correct me if i am wrong) so we have huge value much more than just backing one of the outcomes rather than all four.  Even if we were offered 7/1 on one of the outcomes of the throw instead of 4 lots of 6/1.  It's more boring/robotic but ultimately backing all 4 makes you more money long term and reduces your variance. Two things any professional gambler/investor would strive for. It's not sexy in the slightest but to those who like an old fashioned 'punt' and to be proved right that we back one horse in the race and 'we knew' etc etc when it wins aren't going to be fans of this approach.

I think the thread has different users from guys who bet for a living to those who are total rec punters who love learning about diff elements of sports betting and a load of semi serious punters inbetween with real specialist knowledge on certain sports.  Everyone has a different agenda for being on the thread and that's where these differences in opinions of how the thread should attack the game differ.  There isn't a right or wrong answer.

BOOM!

Nothing to add, no further questions M'Lord.

It is incredibly difficult to be all things to all men. And Lisa.

[tikay]

Excellent reply arbboy.

Ty

Yes, great reply to a great question.

You both get a kiss from me & a signed 'photo.

[tikay]

Excellent reply arbboy.

Ty

For pure entertainment i would love the thread to be like you seem to want it.  It would bring in loads more 'casuals' who like a punt to view it which would be good for the site.  Everyone wanting to land 'touches' etc on their areas of specialism etc etc.

I worry about posting 'boring' stats/%/numbers like i did in my last post because i don't want the thread to become boring/number crunching etc for regular blonde guys/newies who just want to come on here and punt and might be put off by joining because of the high level of discussion so many of the posters on here can debate to.  The level/quality of content on this thread for the last 2 years is off the charts for something being totally free to use for everyone.  All the fred regs will know this but this thread literally has at least 10/15 people on it given info/discussion/maths/knowledge which the average joe punter would never be able to access under normal circumstances.  This can lead to some thinking they are not suitably qualified to add things to the thread and/or worry about looking silly or making an error.  There must be people out there who lurk and don't post for this reason and might have some great info to add to the thread due to their location/individual sporting knowledge etc.  I think the more people we can encourage to post the more the thread will be how adz wants it to be.  However, the thread is first and foremost about winning money long term and the reality of winning money sports betting long term is grinding numbers/stats/% etc etc.  I suppose what this shows is that there is nothing remotely interesting about sports betting for a living.

I know i have always followed it for the pros stuff like redarmi/dubai/doobs/ed gas/badbeat for the stats and odds compiling views/analysis and debates for the last 2 years but i am reading/posting for different reasons to the vast majority of people who read and just love punting win/lose or draw and don't have to rely on making money every week to pay the bills.  These guys can bring loads of info to the thread in their own ways which believe me are useful to any pro gambler.  Ant's passion for Palace is amazing and his level of detail of his analysis of a certain team (Palace) and south london non league football is great and it is a very specialist area.  There are numerous other guys with other sports too numerous to name but you get my drift.



 

Another great Post.

Keep the geeky stats coming, something for everyone. 

And we all rib Ant, but really, we adore his passion.

We are blessed with so many specialists here, so we must not alienate or ignore them.

[tikay]

or for blondes mods to review the ip addy's of these 20 guests at 4am to see how many were from Gib, Malta, Dublin, Warrington, Stoke, Wigan, Harrow, Leeds and Barking among others.

I addressed this earlier.

Deffo ban any IP addresses from the Fens though. And Essex. Essex are all middle of the road sorts.

[DungBeetle]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

OK, fair enough, though I'd have been happy to invest a little more on any Mercedes based angle.

Im not dogmatic about it

Mercedes prices have shortened, but if there is an angle anyone spots for them or any other driver/team, post it up please

You not think Hamilton at 5/2 still looks big Tighty?  I think we should press.

And I know we missed bigger on Massa, but if McLaren have issues too, then I agree that each way Massa or Williams could still be too big too?  As I said previously Brawn came from fairly far back on rule changes and had everybody beat before they could catch up.  I expect Red Bull will definitely improve as the season goes on, just don't see them ever catching up the points deficit from the first few races.

I really don't think the sport is difficult to make money on, we just maybe made some bad bets in the past, and got a bit of adverse variance. 

Suggest away Doobs!

I think you have to put Mercedes and Ferrari in the top three teams. When looking for a team that might hit the each way spot in the Constructors at a price then it seems to me that Williams 33/1 or Force India 50-1+ are the banzai spot over McLaren at 7-1

Think you have sent me a short pass here, just looked at the constructors and they are only doing 2 places which changes it a lot.

Still 3 places on Massa for the drivers at 33/1, but he'll have to beat the Ferraris and McLarens.  Hulkenberg seems a good driver who should be in a better team.  100/1 is some way from Betfair though, which makes me think the place might not make up for it.  Massa is still shortening for Australia, so maybe the 33/1 e/w is good

I accept Massa might be gone at the game, but he wasn't terrible in his day and a new competitive car could refresh him.

I know you don't like him, so we may just be left to discuss the Hamilton press.

If we like the Williams then Bottas seems to have scope to make a name for himself this year.  Had some excellent qualifying efforts last season despite being in a poor car.   Not sure what the angle is though.

[tikay]

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.

For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

Understand this point to a certain extent and can see both sides of the argument.  Trouble is its like having a 6 sided dice and a 4 rolling in is offered at 6/1 by a firm.  You back it as its obviously the best bet in the race because the firm bet 4/1 each the other 5 outcomes and 6/1 the 4.  Then another firm goes 6/1 the 5 and 4/1 the other 5 outcomes and so on and so forth.  Eventually u have backed 4 of the 6 outcomes in the race all at 6/1 with 4 different firms (to use the CHurdle example Adz has used here) and it seems like we are no longer 'punting' in an old fashioned sense because we have backed more than half of the field.  However, in this example we still have a great bet as we have backed a truely priced 1/2 shot at 3/4 (i think my maths is correct here please feel free to correct me if i am wrong) so we have huge value much more than just backing one of the outcomes rather than all four.  Even if we were offered 7/1 on one of the outcomes of the throw instead of 4 lots of 6/1.  It's more boring/robotic but ultimately backing all 4 makes you more money long term and reduces your variance. Two things any professional gambler/investor would strive for. It's not sexy in the slightest but to those who like an old fashioned 'punt' and to be proved right that we back one horse in the race and 'we knew' etc etc when it wins aren't going to be fans of this approach.

I think the thread has different users from guys who bet for a living to those who are total rec punters who love learning about diff elements of sports betting and a load of semi serious punters inbetween with real specialist knowledge on certain sports.  Everyone has a different agenda for being on the thread and that's where these differences in opinions of how the thread should attack the game differ.  There isn't a right or wrong answer.

I couldn't agree with this more. Surely there is room for doing every +EV offer and also taking a position on a market ?Adz, I normally agree with you but I don't agree with the bit about clogging up Fred with offers. To me, Fred is never clogged up but often too quiet. Whenever I refresh and there haven't been any new posts I'm always a little disappointed.

That is my current understanding.

[tikay]

Be quick and get £50 on betfred on hurricane fly at 4/1
https://betfred.mobi/sports/horses/event/3080436.2

Totesport pls

They don't seem to be offering it. 11/4 @ present.

Maybe they sussed that yesterday peeps were doing both Sites.

You are restricted at BetDead but not at the Nanny.  So you go to the Nanny first when time restricted.  The offer ended at 12.30. 

A couple of improvements people could make would be to put Paddy Power and Laddies offers on the Cheltenham thread. 

It would be good to flag Betfred bets as totesport ones just in case Tikay goes to the wrong place.

Redarmi mentioned this yesterday, but if people carry on using badly damaged accounts to put 50p on, it isn't a good thing.  Paddies get to find out that lots of people want to back outcome X just for a liability of a pound to Paddies.  I never use my Ladbrokes account for this reason, they really do seem to cut prices even though they have barely laid a pound sometimes.

I am not sure if it is wise to put up click links to bookie sites either.  If Ladbrokes get 30 people clicking a link here and all betting £50, it wouldn't be too hard for them to put 2 and 2 together. 

I'd also caution against anyone volunteering to bets at Paddies on for Tikay on this thread.  Arrangements off site are best kept that way.

I do try to use Totesport before BetFred, but, bizarrely, BetFred often have better prices. There is no explaining that anamoly.

I generaly have been non-Restricted by BetFred. This week, they've been a bit hard on me, maybe because of all the Offers, & maybe also because X gave me a horse at 10/1 which romped home for rather more than I normally bet.   

I'm unclear why placing tiddlearses with, say, PP & £3.65 is a bad thing? When PP began Restricting me (severely) it was nearly 2 years ago, & I had £400 in my PP account. I now have over £800 in that Account, just from tiddlearsing. And, of late, Chelters excepted, they'll often lay me a "sensible" sized bet on the more liquid markets. Ditto ditto Bet365, which had £350 in when they first Restricted me, it now has £1,100 in the Account, all from tiddlearsing. Some of it is non-Fred stuff, I should add.

And yes, I really ought to withdraw these various lumps of cash laying around in Bookies accounts. I need a PA. Or wife. I often have to Deposit on other sites, so it makes no sense to leave all that cash there. Scared of the withdrawal curse, maybe, it is rigged, you know. I read that on 2+2, so it has to be true.

Links to Bookies sites/Offers are ill-advised? I disagree. There is a complete disconnect on Fred as to the Fred effect with bookies. Did you know that Online Bookies have a crude yardstick to measure bet volume ahead of major betting events? They measure BETS PER SECOND. And they are measured in HUNDREDS. Think about that sheer volume. So I'm utterly convinced that a few dozen Freddies don't make a dot of difference, & the Bookies don't give a toss, or even know we exist. Obv, if we all lump on a thin market at the same time, prices are bound to move. There's nothing sinister in that.

Appreciate your input on this, even though I don't agree with all of it.

I think Totesport and BetFred share some prices but not all.  These offers have been available at both this week, so totesport first is just sensible.  If you want to ignore me telling you this and just take the tenner with BetFred your choice.

I think you are missing the point on the links too.  They may do so many hundred bets per second on the Premiership and Cheltenham but they don't on best short animation at the Oscars, Cycling classic road race and top yappy dog at crufts.  I don't believe they close or restrict hundreds of accounts a second either.  There has been occasions when we have all got restricted at the same time and maybe they didn't try and find a link between the accounts they closed, but maybe they did?

I'd also be surprised if they didn't pay more heed to my badly restricted account at Ladbrokes than to some random who spews hundreds on footie accumulators.  It would be crazy to just restrict an account if you think the person behind it is dangerous to your business.  You'd gather as much info as you can from it surely?  Maybe most risk people at SkyBet etc are idiots, but there are always going to be some more intelligent ones somewhere in the industry.  I think this is what Neil(?) referred to as giving away your information too cheaply.  

I don't quite know what that means. (Enboldened), I try to heed all good advice, but I do have my own opinions, too. I was simply stating facts.

The last Para - OK, yeah, now I get your point.

[tikay]

How important is the money to you tikay? Think everyone agrees that it is annoying/disappointing to see you get pennies on when someone recommends a chunkier bet - if the actually making of the money isn't vital to you, it is possible we can devise some sort of system where you place a small (standard) percentage of the recommend but it is documented on the spreadsheet as the full amount? Perhaps 10%.

That way for the spreadsheet we are getting every bet on that we want but would also bring back the old discussions we used to have about bet sizing. I guess we'd lose the sweat of the bigger bets, knowing that we've only got, say, 10% of the actual stake on. Or maybe you do place the full amount if you can but if you can't you place it at the reduced percentage, document it as the full amount, and no one needs to know which you have on. Or is restricted accounts too much part of the game that we need to embrace it and work round it?

Meh, I don't know. Just thinking aloud.

I have considered this a thousand times Scott, effectively "virtual betting". Never gets Restricted!

I don't have a problem with it, not at all. Others may, but I don't. Solves a lot of problems, & creates a few, too.

[Chompy]

Honestly? Leave TfT as it is. It's all fine. If you want to put up a bet, do, if you want to put up a bonus, do. If you don't, don't. It's perfect as is.

[tikay]

Honestly? Leave TfT as it is. It's all fine. If you want to put up a bet, do, if you want to put up a bonus, do. If you don't, don't. It's perfect as is.

FFS, there is always one awkward bugger.

[DungBeetle]

Spreadex are now up with their F1 spread quotes.   On initial viewing there appeared arbs all over the shop, but there aren't because they are treating the double point race(s) differently.

Are these rules set in stone now?  (i.e. double points for last race only).   If not it opens up some interesting possibilities.

[TightEnd]

Are these rules set in stone now?  (i.e. double points for last race only).   If not it opens up some interesting possibilities.

No, it was then it wasn't. Not popular with the drivers, not popular with some teams, and Ecclestone is lobbying