Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Be quick and get £50 on betfred on hurricane fly at 4/1
https://betfred.mobi/sports/horses/event/3080436.2

Totesport pls

They don't seem to be offering it. 11/4 @ present.

Maybe they sussed that yesterday peeps were doing both Sites.

You are restricted at BetDead but not at the Nanny.  So you go to the Nanny first when time restricted.  The offer ended at 12.30. 

A couple of improvements people could make would be to put Paddy Power and Laddies offers on the Cheltenham thread. 

It would be good to flag Betfred bets as totesport ones just in case Tikay goes to the wrong place.

Redarmi mentioned this yesterday, but if people carry on using badly damaged accounts to put 50p on, it isn't a good thing.  Paddies get to find out that lots of people want to back outcome X just for a liability of a pound to Paddies.  I never use my Ladbrokes account for this reason, they really do seem to cut prices even though they have barely laid a pound sometimes.

I am not sure if it is wise to put up click links to bookie sites either.  If Ladbrokes get 30 people clicking a link here and all betting £50, it wouldn't be too hard for them to put 2 and 2 together. 

I'd also caution against anyone volunteering to bets at Paddies on for Tikay on this thread.  Arrangements off site are best kept that way.

I do try to use Totesport before BetFred, but, bizarrely, BetFred often have better prices. There is no explaining that anamoly.

I generaly have been non-Restricted by BetFred. This week, they've been a bit hard on me, maybe because of all the Offers, & maybe also because X gave me a horse at 10/1 which romped home for rather more than I normally bet.   

I'm unclear why placing tiddlearses with, say, PP & £3.65 is a bad thing? When PP began Restricting me (severely) it was nearly 2 years ago, & I had £400 in my PP account. I now have over £800 in that Account, just from tiddlearsing. And, of late, Chelters excepted, they'll often lay me a "sensible" sized bet on the more liquid markets. Ditto ditto Bet365, which had £350 in when they first Restricted me, it now has £1,100 in the Account, all from tiddlearsing. Some of it is non-Fred stuff, I should add.

And yes, I really ought to withdraw these various lumps of cash laying around in Bookies accounts. I need a PA. Or wife. I often have to Deposit on other sites, so it makes no sense to leave all that cash there. Scared of the withdrawal curse, maybe, it is rigged, you know. I read that on 2+2, so it has to be true.

Links to Bookies sites/Offers are ill-advised? I disagree. There is a complete disconnect on Fred as to the Fred effect with bookies. Did you know that Online Bookies have a crude yardstick to measure bet volume ahead of major betting events? They measure BETS PER SECOND. And they are measured in HUNDREDS. Think about that sheer volume. So I'm utterly convinced that a few dozen Freddies don't make a dot of difference, & the Bookies don't give a toss, or even know we exist. Obv, if we all lump on a thin market at the same time, prices are bound to move. There's nothing sinister in that.

Appreciate your input on this, even though I don't agree with all of it.

I think Totesport and BetFred share some prices but not all.  These offers have been available at both this week, so totesport first is just sensible.  If you want to ignore me telling you this and just take the tenner with BetFred your choice.

I think you are missing the point on the links too.  They may do so many hundred bets per second on the Premiership and Cheltenham but they don't on best short animation at the Oscars, Cycling classic road race and top yappy dog at crufts.  I don't believe they close or restrict hundreds of accounts a second either.  There has been occasions when we have all got restricted at the same time and maybe they didn't try and find a link between the accounts they closed, but maybe they did?

I'd also be surprised if they didn't pay more heed to my badly restricted account at Ladbrokes than to some random who spews hundreds on footie accumulators.  It would be crazy to just restrict an account if you think the person behind it is dangerous to your business.  You'd gather as much info as you can from it surely?  Maybe most risk people at SkyBet etc are idiots, but there are always going to be some more intelligent ones somewhere in the industry.  I think this is what Neil(?) referred to as giving away your information too cheaply.  

[tikay]

Very good, & we all do.

He's fine, & will be back soon enough.

[Tal]

Good quiz question (thanks, Milli):

That's a picture of Roberto Baggio missing the penalty that concluded the world cup USA '94. Who missed the first penalty of USA '94?

[scotty2hatty]

How important is the money to you tikay? Think everyone agrees that it is annoying/disappointing to see you get pennies on when someone recommends a chunkier bet - if the actually making of the money isn't vital to you, it is possible we can devise some sort of system where you place a small (standard) percentage of the recommend but it is documented on the spreadsheet as the full amount? Perhaps 10%.

That way for the spreadsheet we are getting every bet on that we want but would also bring back the old discussions we used to have about bet sizing. I guess we'd lose the sweat of the bigger bets, knowing that we've only got, say, 10% of the actual stake on. Or maybe you do place the full amount if you can but if you can't you place it at the reduced percentage, document it as the full amount, and no one needs to know which you have on. Or is restricted accounts too much part of the game that we need to embrace it and work round it?

Meh, I don't know. Just thinking aloud.

[tikay]

Thoughts, anyone?

1 bankroll to fund it

2 time to do it, ie be on thread enough to get the bets on in a timely manner

You provide 1, struggle with 2

Is there anyone that could do both?

Well there has not been a single volunteer, so the discussion seems academic really.

There are some possible solutions though. Unfortunately, I just don't have the time needed to manage it optimally. If my job comes to an end, then yes, maybe. We shall see.

One collateral that I am really uncomfy with is that I'm here for the Fun Factor, & of course, Fred is great for blonde. I don't much enjoy the fact that some folks take it really seriously, & as a result, my personal relationships of long-standing become strained, as I'm usually the intermediary in these tiffs. Like NOT. Guess it goes with the territory, but my friends mean more to me than Fred. Anyway, that a whole other story. 

[Doobs]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

OK, fair enough, though I'd have been happy to invest a little more on any Mercedes based angle.

Im not dogmatic about it

Mercedes prices have shortened, but if there is an angle anyone spots for them or any other driver/team, post it up please

You not think Hamilton at 5/2 still looks big Tighty?  I think we should press.

And I know we missed bigger on Massa, but if McLaren have issues too, then I agree that each way Massa or Williams could still be too big too?  As I said previously Brawn came from fairly far back on rule changes and had everybody beat before they could catch up.  I expect Red Bull will definitely improve as the season goes on, just don't see them ever catching up the points deficit from the first few races.

I really don't think the sport is difficult to make money on, we just maybe made some bad bets in the past, and got a bit of adverse variance.  

[TightEnd]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

OK, fair enough, though I'd have been happy to invest a little more on any Mercedes based angle.

Im not dogmatic about it

Mercedes prices have shortened, but if there is an angle anyone spots for them or any other driver/team, post it up please

You not think Hamilton at 5/2 still looks big Tighty?  I think we should press.

And I know we missed bigger on Massa, but if McLaren have issues too, then I agree that each way Massa or Williams could still be too big too?  As I said previously Brawn came from fairly far back on rule changes and had everybody beat before they could catch up.  I expect Red Bull will definitely improve as the season goes on, just don't see them ever catching up the points deficit from the first few races.

I really don't think the sport is difficult to make money on, we just maybe made some bad bets in the past, and got a bit of adverse variance. 

Suggest away Doobs!

I think you have to put Mercedes and Ferrari in the top three teams. When looking for a team that might hit the each way spot in the Constructors at a price then it seems to me that Williams 33/1 or Force India 50-1+ are the banzai spot over McLaren at 7-1

[tikay]

How much has taking best price on just about every market that Fred bets on been to the detriment of the project long term? 

I can't help but thing that the frugal nature of Fred has infact cost it a better chance to make money, what do others think? 

I don't have many restrictions in place and its not because I am handing cash hand over fist to the books but its because I play the game, as I see it as long as you play they will take action.  That means not hammerring X accounts just for bonuses and best odds. 

Further, Freds penchant just for backing singles only couldn't have helped.  I know it's been discussed before about rolling selections up and having some fun accas and Tikay said he'd do it but it seemed to last a day or two and he'd slip back to being the eternal nit. 

Incidentally, I know he's been rank rotten thus far but I think Whitlock is too big a price against Thornton.  I don't have the stats to back this up but I am pretty sure the records of players playing 2 games on one night is pretty horrendous, perhaps one of the "darts" lads could help substantiate that claim but its a gut feeling.

Ignore that now just went back to check the prices and seems to have been a bit of a move for Whitlcok compared to earlier when I first looked.  Still wouldn't  put anyone off if fancying a punt. 

Fair point as to taking "best prices".

But have you seen the grief I get when I take 7/4 when 15/8 is available elsewhere? Everyone insta jumps on me, "what, you could have got 2/1 on Betty!!!" or whatever.

And, to be fair, the difference between 15/8 & 7/4 is, literally, the difference between profit & loss over 3,000 Bets. It is.

It's a balance thing I suppose. Both sides of that debate are correct.

Singles, not accas? I'm a lifelong nit, & I'll never be comfy with Accas. You must know the additional margin that Bookies make from Accas, & why they promote them so hard?

And yes, a month or two back, I agreed, & said we would do a few Yankees & the like, & we did one at the time. Another was done in my UKPC absence, & I made some straight-faced jokes about being annoyed, but I assumed everyone saw through that bluff.

I don't like Yankees & Accas, & never will. It's simple logic. Bookies DO like them, & for good reason.

But none have been Posted. If they are, I'll do them, even though I don't like them, I'd do them for the Fun Factor & Fred ambience. So I think that point is not entirely accurate.

[tikay]

Tighty/Doobs & anyone else.

The F1 debate. I'm deffo keen to exploit the current situation if we can. Suggest away please.

This may be a rare F1 situation, & we ought to try & cash in. I know we've traditionally done our F1 bollox, but we ought to think rationally, not via the rear-view mirror.

[tikay]

I had not forgotten the excellent post by redarmi last night, & plan to reply, Ommy has now extended the debate, which is good.

I can't reply now, but will try & do so in the morning.

In the interim, there is one other solution for Fred which nobody has mentioned. 

How about someone else, with reasonably clean accounts, takes over my role completely? It's not about giving ME tips, it's about everyone taking stuff from Fred, & having some fun along the way.

Would give us a whole new lease of life.

Thoughts, anyone?

Gotta go, work awaits.

Tikay, I think you maybe under estimate how much this thread is actually for and about you. I have noticed how quiet it is when you are not available to constantly post and drive the thread even when you are available to quickly place bets.

In my opinion it just wouldn't work.

I don't really like to post what wouldn't work without being able to suggest what might work is I'll spend some time thinking about it and try to come up with something.

Well thank you, but I'm not sure that is wholly true.

Both Tighty & I "work" the thread, it needs working to drive it along. Both of us are a bit busy of late, so Fred has suffered.

If someone took over my bet-placing role, it would not stop me trying to drive the thread, in fact I'd have more time to "work" it.

Anyway, I have some ideas to float, once I work though these questions & comments.

[TightEnd]

T20

These three games are a warm up for the upcoming T20 World Cup in Bangladesh and are in Barbados. The Antiguan pitch for the ODIs was slow and took spin and it remains to be seen if that applies in Barbados (for a warm up for a tournament in Asia, it would be most useful to both teams if it did) or whether the boundaries will be small to encourage big scores, so specialist bets on Total Sixes etc can wait for the second and third T20s when we have a better idea of the playing conditions

Both sides see changes for the T20s. Most notably for the West Indies Chris Gayle returns from injury and immediately adds a high octane run scoring potential to the top of the West Indies order

For England Root is injured and Ian Bell is restored having not played any T20 cricket for three years. Undoubtedly a top class player, but the sum of the team news probably justifies the West Indies being 4/5 favourites for the first ODI ahead of England at 11/10

When looking at the first game there remains a definite opportunity in the Top England Batsman market. At the top of the order we are likely to see four of Hales/Lumb/Wright/Moeen/Morgan/Bell with Buttler and Bopara following on at numbers 6 and 7.

In the first group of names Hales has been out of runs for nearly a year, as is Wright at international level. Bell has no recent T20 record. Yet all three are installed in the markets in amongst the favourites. Understandable in the sense that in a 20 over game being at the top of the order is an advantage to compiling a score, obviously but takes no account of their form

The definite value here remains in Buttler and Bopara. Buttler was very nearly a 10-1 winner in the final ODI batting at six and scoring 99.

I like him in these markets as he can compile scores on any wicket, and quickly.

Yet he is still offered at 10-1 for the first T20 game. Bopara meanwhile is available at 16-1. Of course for both to have a chance, early wickets need to fall to give both long enough to bat, but at these prices thats worth the risk, especially with the possibility that the top order will have to face four overs from the un-pickable top quality spinner Narine up front.

Recommendations

Top England Batsman Market, first T20 International (Sunday)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/west-indies-v-england/t20-series/west-indies-v-england-%5B1st-t20%5D/top-england-batsman

Jos Buttler at 9-1

Ravi Bopara 16-1

£10 each

Both William Hill

[tikay]

I have sat fairly quietly the last few weeks and just watched as some stuff unfolds.

Got to say I think I fear TFT has lost its way a little.

The concept was, I believe, not just to make better punters, but share info on peoples specialist subjects, and I think we have drifted too far away from the latter in favour of blindly looking for best odds/special offers/money backs deals etc, that are slowly crushing Fred.
For example, over the weeks I am sure I have seen offers and bets placed on Hurricane Fly/MTOY/The New One and Our Conor, all in the same race.

Regardless of amounts and now matter how shrewd we are with the prices, It feels like we will out shrewd ourselves and make a small profit at best. Yet two people with proven horse race knowledge, at least, have come down with a strong enough opinion to opt for a single horse, and work to reduce any potential losses etc.

Sometimes I think we need to take a position in these markets and decide who we still think will win, bet accordingly, and then bet AROUND that, not just blindly max each offer and slowly erode our knowledge edge.

I can expand later but I think you get my gist and hope someone else has a view on this.

Adz

I appreciate your honesty Adzy, though "offers slowly crushing Fred" I disagree with.

If we want to cease doing Offers, fine, but I don't think that is a majority view. Of course, it is unbalanced in the run-up to Cheltenham, due to the sheer volume of Offers. It makes no sense (to me) to ignore them if they rep value.

And if something goes up that you or others don't agree with, then you need to say at the time. I'm not a Pro or seasoned Punter, I just do stuff that others suggest, after I've considered the merits, such as I am able. We've placed 3,000+ bets, & I've not selected a single one of them, I just have the daunting task of sorting the wheat from the chaff, without upsetting folks.

Fred needs constact activity, constant driving, peeps spend all day on the Fred F5 button, so it needs activity. Offers helps with these, & most Offers are +Ev. 

I do agree they are a bit overbearing in the Cheltenham run-up, but that is only once a year.

And NOBODY has to do any suggested Bet, or Offer, everyone has the choice. So if 100 Offers are Posted, & a regular only does one, it is still a plus. We can all ignore stuff if we wish. Yea, Offers clutter the place up, but I may have a solution to that. Bear with me please.

[Doobs]

“We have to get back to competitiveness as soon as possible and we will get there much faster than people imagine, ” declared McLaren boss Ron Dennis this morning, breaking his silence for the first time since seizing back control of the company from Martin Whitmarsh.

“I believe we will win races this year, how many I don’t know and when I don’t know. Company was unfit and I said to them that if they match my commitment we will win. If they don’t match that they won’t be with the company.”

Dennis was on feisty form at press gathering at the McLaren Technical Centre in Woking, England, laying out his vision for the company and for the F1 team’s return to competitiveness after its worst season since 1980.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/03/ron-dennis-breaks-his-silence-we-will-win-again-soon/

Tighty,

Remind us where we are with Mercedes please.

More & more I've become convinced that Mercedes will rule the roost this year. What ways can, or should, we exploit this?

We have until the Australian GP (Sunday week) to finalise our Season positions. I think we might need to consider loading up a bit more.

Our current F1 positions are as follows


25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral    Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Drivers Champion   Hamilton   3/1   30

25-Feb   JoeBeevers   Coral   Nov 2014   Formula1   Constructors Championship   Mercedes   6/5   25

31-Jan   Doobs   Betfred   Oct-2014   Formula1   F1 WDC   Button   12/1   20

25-Feb   Tal   Betfred   Nov 2014   Formula1   F1 Australian Gp   Magnussen   12/1   20

I wrote a season preview this week, which goes through the technical changes and the general uncertainties for this season

I think its quite good, explains where pre-season testing has left us

http://www.betpal.com/formula-one-2014-season-betting-preview


In terms of current prices

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/drivers-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/winner

Hamilton now 5/2 best for the title and Mercedes 11/10 so we have good prices

Ron Dennis has said that McLaren have a speed/downforce issue that means they won't be quickest in Australia, but signs are reliability should be good

Williams looks to be very competitive


The contrarian play is to try to assess when the Renault powered teams resolve their issues. For example Vettel is 12/1 to win in Australia, Red Bull 9/2 for the constructors, Vettel has won 4 titles in a row and is 7/2 for the drivers etc etc. These would look fantastic if we had any visibility on the Renault cars solving the problems. We don't though. How far behind will they be by the time they are very competitive?

As it stands though with all the myriad uncertainties in a sport we find tough to make money on I am quite happy with our book. We might have added Williams too, but that aside we look in ok shape

OK, fair enough, though I'd have been happy to invest a little more on any Mercedes based angle.

Im not dogmatic about it

Mercedes prices have shortened, but if there is an angle anyone spots for them or any other driver/team, post it up please

You not think Hamilton at 5/2 still looks big Tighty?  I think we should press.

And I know we missed bigger on Massa, but if McLaren have issues too, then I agree that each way Massa or Williams could still be too big too?  As I said previously Brawn came from fairly far back on rule changes and had everybody beat before they could catch up.  I expect Red Bull will definitely improve as the season goes on, just don't see them ever catching up the points deficit from the first few races.

I really don't think the sport is difficult to make money on, we just maybe made some bad bets in the past, and got a bit of adverse variance. 

Suggest away Doobs!

I think you have to put Mercedes and Ferrari in the top three teams. When looking for a team that might hit the each way spot in the Constructors at a price then it seems to me that Williams 33/1 or Force India 50-1+ are the banzai spot over McLaren at 7-1

Think you have sent me a short pass here, just looked at the constructors and they are only doing 2 places which changes it a lot.

Still 3 places on Massa for the drivers at 33/1, but he'll have to beat the Ferraris and McLarens.  Hulkenberg seems a good driver who should be in a better team.  100/1 is some way from Betfair though, which makes me think the place might not make up for it.  Massa is still shortening for Australia, so maybe the 33/1 e/w is good

I accept Massa might be gone at the game, but he wasn't terrible in his day and a new competitive car could refresh him.

I know you don't like him, so we may just be left to discuss the Hamilton press.

[exstream]

Racebets between 1-2 are going 8/1 on Oscar Whisky.
Unless no longer doing offers, get as much on as they allow.

[tikay]

T20

These three games are a warm up for the upcoming T20 World Cup in Bangladesh and are in Barbados. The Antiguan pitch for the ODIs was slow and took spin and it remains to be seen if that applies in Barbados (for a warm up for a tournament in Asia, it would be most useful to both teams if it did) or whether the boundaries will be small to encourage big scores, so specialist bets on Total Sixes etc can wait for the second and third T20s when we have a better idea of the playing conditions

Both sides see changes for the T20s. Most notably for the West Indies Chris Gayle returns from injury and immediately adds a high octane run scoring potential to the top of the West Indies order

For England Root is injured and Ian Bell is restored having not played any T20 cricket for three years. Undoubtedly a top class player, but the sum of the team news probably justifies the West Indies being 4/5 favourites for the first ODI ahead of England at 11/10

When looking at the first game there remains a definite opportunity in the Top England Batsman market. At the top of the order we are likely to see four of Hales/Lumb/Wright/Moeen/Morgan/Bell with Buttler and Bopara following on at numbers 6 and 7.

In the first group of names Hales has been out of runs for nearly a year, as is Wright at international level. Bell has no recent T20 record. Yet all three are installed in the markets in amongst the favourites. Understandable in the sense that in a 20 over game being at the top of the order is an advantage to compiling a score, obviously but takes no account of their form

The definite value here remains in Buttler and Bopara. Buttler was very nearly a 10-1 winner in the final ODI batting at six and scoring 99.

I like him in these markets as he can compile scores on any wicket, and quickly.

Yet he is still offered at 10-1 for the first T20 game. Bopara meanwhile is available at 16-1. Of course for both to have a chance, early wickets need to fall to give both long enough to bat, but at these prices thats worth the risk, especially with the possibility that the top order will have to face four overs from the un-pickable top quality spinner Narine up front.

Recommendations

Top England Batsman Market, first T20 International (Sunday)

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/west-indies-v-england/t20-series/west-indies-v-england-%5B1st-t20%5D/top-england-batsman

Jos Buttler at 9-1

Ravi Bopara 16-1

£10 each

Both William Hill

BOOM!

Both Bets placed, no Restrictions, life is good, easy game. Now we are walking, not just talking, happy days.



09 Mar 2014 - West Indies v England - 1st T20 - Top England Batsman

Jos Buttler @ 9/1

Stake : £10.00


Estimated Returns : £

100.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000846/F



Single


09 Mar 2014 - West Indies v England - 1st T20 - Top England Batsman

Ravi Bopara @ 16/1

Stake : £10.00


Estimated Returns : £

170.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0000847/F

2 BETS PLACED