Tips for Tikay

[GreekWay]

Looking ahead to tomorrow's Cheltenham action, Ladbrokes are taking on Annie Power but vowing to refund stakes as a free bet if Willie Mullins' mare wins the race they sponsor, the World Hurdle.

Annie Power is the big-race favourite at 6/4 at present, although Ladbrokes say they will go up with 9/4 in the morning.

The money-back offer will go live at 0900 GMT with a maximum of £25 to be refunded.

The firm's David Williams said: "Annie Power is the stand out horse on day three and we're dangling an enormous carrot with this money back pledge framed around her winning.

"We're thrilled to bits that the showdown with Big Buck's is on in what we believe is the clash of the week and we fully expect this offer to trigger the busiest build-up to the racing we've seen all week across all our key channels."

Annie Power's main rival is four-time winner Big Buck's, about whom Boylesports are currently offering 4/1.

So if they go for a refund offer which of the two is worth it? Backing Annie Power or Big Bucks?

Discuss.

I believe that is a question for the expert Mr. Doobs.

Without doing the maths properly.

Ladbrokes have Big Bucks 3/1 vs 4.3/1 on Betfair, At Fishers Cross 8/1 vs 10.25/1 Betfair.  Doesn't seem a big improvement including the offer.

Annie Power is 9/4 vs 1.65/1 (13/8 ish) Betfair.  You can see that is a lot better.

Plus I think Annie Power is fantastic, makes it easy to say 9/4 Annie Power get as much as you can.

Anybody else get that 5/1 NRNB Annie Power?  

Is it worth it to back Bug Bucks with Laddies and lay it on BF to get the potential free bet?

Hi GreekWay,

We've been here before haven't we ?

If you are only having one bet and can afford to lose £25 can I suggest you don't go this route and just back Big Bucks and hope it either wins or Annie Power wins and you get your money back.

If you are having a large number of bets or really want to lock in a small profit for any outcome then you need to back and underlay Big Bucks and also lay Annie Power.

If you want me to pm you figures let me know but it is giving away EV and we will have Doobs after us

I just can't understand how to use the racing offers, that's my problem. And for Cheltenham there are numerous offers out there. But on the other hand, I am happy that people in this thread help me to look a bit smarter than I am.

To be honest, I can afford to lose £25 and back Big Bucks to benefit from the Laddies offer. But I can't afford to lose £100 if I do the Paddy one which is a bit trickier as your horse needs to finish 2nd to Annie.

You can't guarantee a profit on that PP offer. The only technique you can use is arb and hope. For this you need to find a horse which is higher at PP than Betfair which will be nearly impossible. Then back and lay for no loss and hope it comes second to Annie Power. Some Advantage Players will be prepared to take a small lose for the chance of the big profit if their selection does come second to Annie Power.

You don't have to bet £100 on the PP offer. You can bet any amount up to £100. Again just back your fancy with an amount you are comfortable to lose and hope it wins or comes second to Annie Power for the refund.

Good luck.

Thanks for the advice once again.

I was thinking of backing and laying Big Bucks, lose a small amount due to the odds difference and commission and hope that Big Bucks will finish 2nd to Annie.

[Doobs]

Looking ahead to tomorrow's Cheltenham action, Ladbrokes are taking on Annie Power but vowing to refund stakes as a free bet if Willie Mullins' mare wins the race they sponsor, the World Hurdle.

Annie Power is the big-race favourite at 6/4 at present, although Ladbrokes say they will go up with 9/4 in the morning.

The money-back offer will go live at 0900 GMT with a maximum of £25 to be refunded.

The firm's David Williams said: "Annie Power is the stand out horse on day three and we're dangling an enormous carrot with this money back pledge framed around her winning.

"We're thrilled to bits that the showdown with Big Buck's is on in what we believe is the clash of the week and we fully expect this offer to trigger the busiest build-up to the racing we've seen all week across all our key channels."

Annie Power's main rival is four-time winner Big Buck's, about whom Boylesports are currently offering 4/1.

So if they go for a refund offer which of the two is worth it? Backing Annie Power or Big Bucks?

Discuss.

I believe that is a question for the expert Mr. Doobs.

Without doing the maths properly.

Ladbrokes have Big Bucks 3/1 vs 4.3/1 on Betfair, At Fishers Cross 8/1 vs 10.25/1 Betfair.  Doesn't seem a big improvement including the offer.

Annie Power is 9/4 vs 1.65/1 (13/8 ish) Betfair.  You can see that is a lot better.

Plus I think Annie Power is fantastic, makes it easy to say 9/4 Annie Power get as much as you can.

Anybody else get that 5/1 NRNB Annie Power?  

Is it worth it to back Bug Bucks with Laddies and lay it on BF to get the potential free bet?

What about the Paddy Power offer which is £100 max but horse needs to finish 2nd to Annie? Worth to do the same as above?

As expected, just backing Annie Power is best, the Maths is here

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=61477.msg1916380#msg1916380

If people want to continue the debate, that really is the best place

[Doobs]

There is only really one horse for Hills mobile tomorrow

Annie Power is best prices 6/4 for the World Hurdle. 

Suggest £25 3.20 Cheltenham Annie Power.

Felix Younger is probably a bet in the first too, but is more marginal.  Any profit probably isn't worth a debate,so will give it a miss.

Big Buck's is 9/2 with Coral at 8.15 and if you can get 9/4 with Ladbrokes Annie Power you should.  I will be piling on any Annie Power offers I see that aren't with Ladbrokes.

[Rubbish2407]

Faugheen got day 2 off to a good start.



O'faolains Boy beat Smad Place into second.



Sire De Grugy made sure the punters had the upper hand.



This Guy was 3/4 length from getting the lot.

Click to see full-size image.

Must have been gutted.

Jamie Moore getting a heroes welcome.



A National treasure.



And the Queen Mum.

Nothing to do with Sport.



Just an F-16 Pilot taking a selfie whilst firing a rocket.

Milos Raonic fired a few rockets to beat Murray at Indian Wells.



Hector knew.

SDG's race in full.



Some horse.

Messi scored again.



Vokes got one as well.



Not quite in the same class.

This horse won the Gold Cup fifty years ago today.



Any ideas?

Later.

[claypole]

The offers available today are a great example where an opinion has a distinct impact on what decision to make. I've read Doobs post and although I have a fairly good mathematical brain, I cannot compete with that type of analysis - he's spot on.

However, I strongly fancy Big Bucks. I think the conditions of his return after a long absence and with a new pilot was, to be fair a good return. As course we'd have all loved it to prevail by by a couple of lengths that day, however I think any judge would agree any horse would need to blow some cobwebs away after that length of absence.  In simple terms I think 4/1 is huge

Annie Power. It's rare for a horse to be equally at home over two mile, two mile five and a staying trip. Clearly she's a quality mare with huge potential, however I think Mullins has not acted in the interest of his owners along this route. I think it's also interesting paddy taking her on with new accounts etc and make mistake this is a massive test.

So, I fancy Big Bucks strongly. I would be interested what other NH elders like Neil, Camel, Adz think of he race without any offers, as if there's are informed opinions that like Big Bucks the 4/1 with paddy MBS 2nd to Annie and the Ladbrokes Annie bets are golden.

I will be maxing along with any other opportunities and if supported would recommend same for thread. May lay Annie as well
If she contracts below 2.5. I think it's a strong field and others do come I to play like Zarkander and Nicholls second string

[Bad Beat]

 I think Corals are going to be 9/2 Big Bucks. Pretty sure I won't be backing either of the front two in that race. The offers are amazing though. Ladbrokes 9/4 is a must bet whatever your opinion.

[tikay]

Rubbish,

Loving the Galleries, you really do put some thought & work into them.

The Gold Cup Winner from 50 years ago?

Owned by the Duchesss of Westminster.

Trained by Tom Dreaper.

Described by Sir Peter O'Sullevan  as "a freak of nature".

The Irish Racing Authorities had to change the Handicapping System to accommodate him.

His Timeform Rating was 212. (Sprinter Sacre is 192).

he was widely known in Ireland simply as "Himself".

Any student of NH Racing ought to refresh their memory, & see what the real meaning of "Horse of the Century", "Wonder Horse" & all that stuff means.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkle

[claypole]

Thanks for replying Neil. Sort of supports my point, if not my support of Big bucks. Good luck today with the couple you're on - I understand you hit proverbial posts galore with your picks and still Had a couple of good priced winners  despite some
Very unlucky fallers

[tikay]

Tighty,

Buttler 67

Boom !!!!

Well done Tighty, & another one for the Misclick File, as I backed this one in error (£10 @ 13/2), but we'll take it. £65 profiit on Buttler, offset by a total of £12.70 on Bopara & Wright. LIKE.

The Bookies will cotton on soon enough, but maybe some value remains. 

Thanks.

[Doobs]

Thanks for replying Neil. Sort of supports my point, if not my support of Big bucks. Good luck today with the couple you're on - I understand you hit proverbial posts galore with your picks and still Had a couple of good priced winners  despite some
Very unlucky fallers

Claypole and Neil have a point here.  Was playing poker last night and got the usual early morning thanks to the kids so not much time.

Given the doubts on the front 2, something like Zarkandar e/w is a must bet.  Poor thing been running in to the best hurdler in training all season, so had been looking worse than he is.  He loves the spring too.

Suggest 25 e/w at 16/1 BMU.  Think this is a really good bet, maybe we should go more.

[tikay]

No double whammy Mr T as there was only 1 break in the first set.

However Raonic won the final set 6-3 for a small profit.

Well done hector, thank you.

"small profit"?

We had £20 @ 2/1 on the Outright, for a £40 profit, & gave back £15 on the Service Breaks, so £25 was the overall profit, & I'm more than happy with that.

Keep them coming. I suspect you'll be against Mr Murray for a while yet.

[Eso Kral]

Tighty,

Buttler 67

Boom !!!!

Well done Tighty, & another one for the Misclick File, as I backed this one in error (£10 @ 13/2), but we'll take it. £65 profiit on Buttler, offset by a total of £12.70 on Bopara & Wright. LIKE.

The Bookies will cotton on soon enough, but maybe some value remains. 

Thanks.

Think this is a premature Boom as he scored 67 in the second T20 with the third one today.

Obv hope we win as am on all 3 batsmen as well...

[stribling]

How long do you expect Annie power will be 9/4 for?

[rfgqqabc]

Will Ladbrokes really refund a winning bet? As I read the offer you wouldn't get your stake back on Annie Power if you backed that.

[Tal]

Thanks for replying Neil. Sort of supports my point, if not my support of Big bucks. Good luck today with the couple you're on - I understand you hit proverbial posts galore with your picks and still Had a couple of good priced winners  despite some
Very unlucky fallers

Claypole and Neil have a point here.  Was playing poker last night and got the usual early morning thanks to the kids so not much time.

Given the doubts on the front 2, something like Zarkandar e/w is a must bet.  Poor thing been running in to the best hurdler in training all season, so had been looking worse than he is.  He loves the spring too.

Suggest 25 e/w at 16/1 BMU.  Think this is a really good bet, maybe we should go more.

Was just typing to ask that very question!

Officer Doobs is sharper than the Siciilan Dragon. Like a Cheltenham Columbo.