Tips for Tikay

[Newportlad]

The MLB starts next week

Click to see full-size image.

Singhee hasn't been on for ages, unfortunately

I have asked redarmi, who gave me/us such fun on the Tampa Bay rays last season top pop his thoughts up, I hope he will

I think Singhee was a season too early on the Kansas City Royals, on whom he recommended a bet last season




I was researching away late one evening and asked a US journalist friend about the Royals

His reply was

"“Watch out for Royals. Great ‘pen, some inning-eating starters and a couple of cornerstones in Sal Perez and (Eric) Hosmer.”

basically to go deep ionto the MLB post season you need

- starting pitching (5 starters rotate, and you need depth)
- bullpen pitching (to close games out)
- defense (particularly in the infield)
- hitting (obviously)

His contention was the Royals have all four, having been a bit light on the first two at times last season


They had been built for the long haul http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article/kc/phil-rogers-royals-have-been-built-to-win-over-long-haul?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180572&vkey=news_kc because traditionally they have traded away talent (too expensive to pay) for draft picks and now one of the brightest farm systems with those draft picks are hitting the major leagues

eg

They have a candidate for rookie of the year in RHP Ventura, who is recorded in recent pre-season games at 102mph pitches

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140312&content_id=69180828&notebook_id=69194422&vkey=notebook_kc&c_id=kc


The prices in this are skewed, much like the Broncos/Chiefs NFL bet we had (one short favourite, a couple of improving franchises), because the Tigers who went deep in the 2013 post season, are 4/9 favourites

(baseball is a game with no salary cap, so you can spend as your owner wishes, with the biggest tv markets giving the biggest budgets. so teams like the yankees, the texas, LA and major city teams tend to hoard the talent. this skews betting prices, sometimes correctly but sometimes not. eg oakland and moneyball, or smaller market teams who outperform their budget. the aim is to try to find these for 2014)

I really like unfashionable teams that are improving fast, mainly in the NFL but also other sports and often in UK betting markets wherwe you might be ahead of the curve on US Sports

So

the division

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-central/winner

I support the White Sox and they and the twins are a couple of years way. I think the Royals can challenge the Tigers at a value price in what isn't a five horse race

Recommend  £20 at 11-2 William Hill AL Central Kansas City Royals


the American League

the big guns are short here..therein lies the opportunity

Recommend £10 at 18-1 William Hill American league Kansas City Royals

Click to see full-size image.

5,4,7,11,10,8,15,2,14,1,6,9,13,16,12,17

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £849.74

Outstanding Bets £4109.44

Countdown £147.34

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web&pli=1#gid=22

A loss of £61 yesterday. Unfortunately on a day the bookies were bashed by a series of results, no joy here

Two winners

Ertijaal scraping home at Lingfield +£31
Brocklebank beaten a short head at Lingfield for the each way return +£14

Losers

Farraaj came with a run two furlongs out, was short of room and plugged on one paced in a tougher winter Derby than last year -£36
Sir Robert Cheval was just outside the places -£20
Grandeur didn't overcome the wide draw -£25  
Catalan beat the Huddersfield Pygmies 30-14 -£20
Cardiff scored 3, not a header amongst them for Caulker -£5


"Always seek out the seed of triumph in every adversity." Og Mandino

So, here is the good news from yesterday

- Suarez's hat-trick and thus

28 Suarez
19 Sturridge
16 Yaya Touré

Suarez has now scored two more goals than RVP did all last season in winning the golden boot
Suarez and Sturridge combined have scored as many goals as Manchester United this season  (as at 5pm yesterday)
With 82 goals in 30 games, and 2.73 goals a game, Liverpool are level with Spurs 1960-61 as most prolific team since 1945. City second with 2.71

Apologies for the stat overlaod, there is more to come. Anyway, we are going to need the £400+ due to us from Suarez in May to cover some other ante-post stuff!

- Hull City's victory and Newcastle's last gasp win have to be good news for those handicap bets, and also very good news for the Hull top promoted side bet

- At 2-0 down at Stevenage, I was sharpening my quill for the "bet of the year", until the MK Dons came back to win in the 90th minute with the long serving Dean Lewington securing the three points. The Dons are now three points behind the unfathomable Peterborough in the race for sixth

- Tranmere lost at the laudable Port Vale and are now one point and one place above relegation

- Reading beat Birmingham and can still mathematically win our bet

- Sam Vokes scored for Burnley. Unfortunately so did McCormack for Leeds. No goals for Jordan "tom daley has got nothing on me" Rhodes or David Nugent

25 McCormack
20 Ings
20 Rhodes
19 Vokes
17 Nugent

- Leicester are now unbeaten in 17 games after their point at Blackburn. 5 points clear of Burnley with a game in hand (Yeovil on Tuesday) A big one next Saturday. Burnley v Leicester. Avoid defeat in that, and we're on the way to winning the 4/1 title bet

- Sri Lanka defended 165 to beat South Africa by 5 runs and get that bet off to a good start. A stat mainly influenced by the longevity and skill of Malinga, but Sri Lanka have never failed to defend 160+ in an International T20. Bodes well on these pitches where it gets lower and slower

- New Zealand were batting and after 4 overs it began to thunder and lightning near the ground. the umpires decided to give it an over. Brendon McCullum realised that they needed to get above the duckworth-lewis target, and smashed Stuart Broad for 16, got above the target and then the umpires took the players off. Unlucky for England, but great news for our New Zealand bet. New Zealand may not have the bowling to win it, but a very dangerous side indeed  

- ABDeV scored 24 for South Africa. Batting at 4, should be batting at 3

- Buttler 32 and Bopara 24 well in the hunt for our England batsman bets


"Expect problems and eat them for breakfast" Alfred Montapert


- Arsenal's defeat yesterday and Liverpool's win was just about the worst combination for several bets, being long Arsenal and short Liverpool, needing Arsenal to finish in the top three.....Chelsea's 76th consecutive win/draw at home under Mourinho

- Crystal Palace's defeat no good for their handicap, or top half hopes. With Fulham strugglnig, hopes of Palace finishing bottom look remote too

- Watford lost at Wigan, that top half bet is going to the wire

- Cardiff City

- Barnsley

- Portsmouth

- Sheffield United's home defeat to Wolves stopped their renaissance in its tracks

- No goals for Ulloa, Assombolonga, Mooney, Kee or Winnall

- Nothing doing for Bent, Amat, santi cazorla or navas in various bets  


"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning." Albert Einstein


Today West Indies, Australia and Pakistan in action in the T20 and we have player positions in the first two and need a Pakistan Win for the third

Paulinho can score for Spurs, its not too much to ask is it?

Napoli play Fiorentina later. On both, we can't lose or can't win, depending on your mood or who has read this far. No one

Villareal play at Valencia

Bale plays in El classico, no goals please

[Omm]

Great write up as usual Tighty, really appreciate the effort you put into these. I look forward to Having a tea on a Sunday morning after walking the dogs cause it now includes reading your great write ups. Shame most of the news wasn't better.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Great write up as usual Tighty, really appreciate the effort you put into these. I look forward to Having a tea on a Sunday morning after walking the dogs cause it now includes reading your great write ups. Shame most of the news wasn't better.

Amen to all that, an amazing write up, as per, laced with laconic humour.

I'd almost rather MK Dons had lost, so we could have seen the outcome of this....


I was sharpening my quill for the "bet of the year", until the MK Dons came back to win

[tikay]

A quick "good luck" from me, (I confess to a financial interest) & hopefully, all Freddies, to Chompy.

Although he needed a 2nd bullet, I gather he is well placed in the Luton £150, (Top 3 stack?) though it no doubt helped that he had Vinni on his table.

Not sure what time it re-starts today, but I wish him well.

[RickBFA]

I generally avoid the premiership but looking at Southampton at Spurs today.

11/4 to win
8/5 DNB

Southampton are becoming a very decent team and Spurs are very inconsistent.

Not a recommendation but anyone got a view?

[Marky147]

I generally avoid the premiership but looking at Southampton at Spurs today.

11/4 to win
8/5 DNB

Southampton are becoming a very decent team and Spurs are very inconsistent.

Not a recommendation but anyone got a view?

Paging Tal

[TightEnd]

"Southampton are available at 3/1 with BetVictor for this game but their record against top six teams is worrying, they have have won only one and lost seven of their 12 matches against teams in the top half this season. Tottenham meanwhile might take that Benfica performance and build from it. Whilst they too struggle against the top sides, as recent results attest, their record against the rest of the League is better. Outside playing top six teams Spurs have won 16 and lost only three of 23 matches against the other 15 teams in the division."

Spurs for me. Tottenham much better proposition against non top six sides and most of the bad run has been against sides above them in the table

4 weeks ago Spurs would have been odds-on today, now 5/4

[Tal]

I understand Paulinho will have a late fitness test.

[Tal]

I generally avoid the premiership but looking at Southampton at Spurs today.

11/4 to win
8/5 DNB

Southampton are becoming a very decent team and Spurs are very inconsistent.

Not a recommendation but anyone got a view?

Paging Tal

Won't put you off, Rick, but I don't think the price is far wrong.

Southampton have a pretty unenviable record at WHL and having two fit centre halves today (Kaboul and Vertonghen) might well make the difference. Adebayor is also back and Dembélé will rival Lallana in the dribbling stakes.

Is there a first goal method market anywhere? Can't find one on oddschecker.

[Tal]

Here's one for you...

Highest rated player, according to whoscored.com

http://www.whoscored.com/Matches/720803/Preview/England-Premier-League-2013-2014-Tottenham-Southampton

This doesn't appear to be the same as Man of the Match, but an analytic assessment of how each player does, according to their job role.

Schneiderlin is 16/1 with the Red Shouty Man. Lovren the same. We aren't expecting a goalfest today, so defenders and midfield sitters should be able to record decent numbers. Two of Southampton's less-fashionable players might end up on the losing side but still perform best individually.

Interested in views on those two

[TightEnd]

Mirpur

Same ground for all the group 2 games

Boundaries in

Pakistan hitting sixes, high scoring game

Australia no spin to arrest the flow

We have bet lag.

[Doobs]

I did the numbers last night, and am not at my PC, but...

Newcastle and Hull are currently 4th and 5th on the projected BetVictor handicap. A Southampton (3rd) defeat today will move them below Newcastle, but also move Spurs closer behind (they are in that 7th to 10th region with Palace).  Arsenal dropped to 6th yesterday.

Newcastle are playing both Everton (2nd) and Southampton this week.  Hull have a couple of games against teams near the bottom.  

Needless to say we need Newcastle to get results against either Southampton or Everton for all our handicap bets.  Palace really aren't far behind and a couple of wins put them right in the top 4.  Any Hull win this week should be enough for them top 4 too.

[BigAdz]

 Nice summery Tighty.

I echo Omm's comment but minus any exercise.