Tips for Tikay

[aaron1867]

Leicester V Wednesday

Leicester not so consistent these days, dropping a few points here & there & whilst they are comfortable better than Wednesday, I wouldn't say 7/1 for us to go there and beat them. They've recently played Tuesday v Yeovil, Saturday v Burnley & ysterday v Wigan. That squad could wo tih a rest & a Friday game must be absolutely horrible for them.

I think it shows you are more than capable of getting a result there - Yeovil nearly did & the tiredness must be kicking in.

7/1 in one place only with Boyles, recc £10

Leicester will win

Prepare to be my new sig!

[TightEnd]

Bahrain Grand Prix

- Only a week after Malaysia and form should be as there with Mercedes are a second quicker than the field, Hamilton was 20 seconds quicker than Rosberg over the race

- Another Tilke track, characteristic long straights in to tight corners which produce some overtaking. High temperatures can contribute to increased tyre degradation. A Mercedes circuit due to their current straight line speed advantage

- The first practice day can produce little in the way of tangible progress as its spent sweeping off the layers of dust and developing a racing line, so no real opportunities for step changes in form/times  


A lot of the Mercedes value has disappeared from our successful bets in Australia and Malaysia

Hamilton was 11/10 pole Malaysia now 4/6
Hamilton now 11/10 win Rosberg 9/4

realistically though it is tough to see beyond the Mercs

There is one piece of value in the markets though. Sadly tikay can't take advantage, but you can

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/bahrain-grand-prix/pole-position

Vettel at 14/1 each way 1/5 odds 1,2,3 Skybet

the rest of the market pays 1/3 1,2


the Red Bull is yet another exceptional Adrian Newey Chassis. Vettel outqualified Rosberg in Malaysia and was close to him all race, because the Red Bull in the corners is very very quick The Renault power train does not match the Mercedes, and despite that Vettel is reasonably close

Vettel thinks that Red-Bull will outdevelop Mercedes (prior year evidence would support that), and that the scale of the technological change this year means rates of development will be quantums beyond last year

there is an F1 test week next week, and I am hoping to get on Vettel after this race ahead of the test/upgrades, he is currently 7/2 for the title and I would like 4/1+

Anyway, back to qualifiying. Riccardo has a ten place grid penalty. Ferrari and McLaren aren't quick enough, yet. Force India and Williams look to be race cars, more than qualifying cars. Weather isn't a factor here

Nearly 3-1 Vettel to finish in the qualifying top three is tremendous. Doesn't work with top 2, but if Skybet will offer top 3......

[TightEnd]

Leicester V Wednesday

Leicester not so consistent these days, dropping a few points here & there & whilst they are comfortable better than Wednesday, I wouldn't say 7/1 for us to go there and beat them. They've recently played Tuesday v Yeovil, Saturday v Burnley & ysterday v Wigan. That squad could wo tih a rest & a Friday game must be absolutely horrible for them.

I think it shows you are more than capable of getting a result there - Yeovil nearly did & the tiredness must be kicking in.

7/1 in one place only with Boyles, recc £10

Leicester will win

Prepare to be my new sig!

lol

very happy to go with the underdog a lot of the time in the championship, but leicester rested their players last night and a win might be it for promotion. They will turn it on.   

[ripple11]

Any fancies for the LBC Europe debate tonight?

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/British/Clegg-v-Farage-LBC-Debate/Politics-N-1z141meZ1z0x2vcZ1z141ne/

Going to have a tenner on "trust the british people" and a few quid on Farage to "win" the debate

Both the above bets came in last week and its round 2 tonight.

Farage is 1/2 on this time, so no value, but I would expect him to win again after his first novice run last week.

If you want to buy money "Putin" is 1/12 on!

I'm going with  "485 million" at evens. Farage never really got a straight answer to his question about how many people have open acccess to the UK....so I fully expect him to again ram home this number tonight.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/politics

[sonour]

Bet suggestion:

Double Seven 25/1 e/w in Grand National with BV NRNB, reasoning: probs a decent standalone bet, generous 6 places paid, may well start shorter on day if as PP betting suggests it is the choice of McCoy. If this was the case we might choose to lay the win part and keep the advantageous place bet? Currently 7-1 to place top 4 Betfair, we get better than 6-1 top 6 on place part.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tipping-centre/horse-racing-betting-tips/archive/march-2014 - there is a short write up and recommend on this page from 24th March



 

Isn't this a bit swings and roundabouts?  It is 30/32 on Betfair the win and 8.2/8.6 the place.  Because we get 6 places we effectively beat Betfair, but we lose 20% on the win part.  So I don't think the 6 places can be enough of a reason to bet.

If the Betfair market is antepost there will be a slight premium so if we assume actual win odds are 30 and the odds for each place are the same:

The return for one unit each way

win =1/30 x 26 = .87

place = 1/30 x 7.25 x 6 = 1.45

So would seem to be a reasonable bet on the assumption that the chance of being 6th is the same as winning.

 On phone, so was all in my head.

Why estimate the place odds that way when we have a place market?  We should be using mid price too?

Maths is 26/31=  0.83,  place 1/8.4 x7.25 x6/4.  Can't do that easily whilst typing, but think that gives us a loss of 17% on the win and a gain of 29% on the place.  Even then that place but is probably slightly high, as chance of 6th should be a tiny bit less than chance of 4th, which is less than chance of 1st.

So overall the gain is about 5% or 6%.  Maybe a bit less than that as there is usually a bias to the backing side on the exchange.  So a margin is there, but small, which is what I was saying.  I do a few golf bets on the 6 places etc and this would be too thin for me to place a golf bet just on the maths. 

 Of course if McCoy gets on board we should be quids in, but I assume the chance he gets on is in the price. 

I am making no view on the horse here, just saying the maths isn't really that strong here.

Hi Doobs,

Could you explain why the chance of 6th is a tiny bit less than the chance of 4th which is less than the chance of 1st please.
Not disagreeing, just trying to learn.

Thank you

Imagine a genuine 2-1 chance in a 10 runner race.  It has a 33% chance of finshing first and obviously a less than 66% chance of finishing 2nd/3rd.  In a completely random 10 runner race - every horse would have a 10% chance of finishing in any position.  Then think about the 100-1 outsider in a 10 horse race - it would be more likely to finish last than first.

So there is a skewing towards 1st place as the price gets shorter*. 

I agree with Doobs but think a) the betfair odds are slightly longer due to antepost terms and don't think the effect is very marked with the horse in question.


*With some very inconsistent horses this isn't true.

Yeah predicting actual place probabilities is more of an art than a science imo.  There are place calculators online and some of the best academic minds have had a go at it yet none have really got it right because you have to consider factors other than the simple maths of the situation.  For example if you have a horse in a maiden race that finished 2nd beating the 3rd by 5 lengths in a Newmarket maiden last time out but has since got injured and hasn't raced for 456 days.  On that form is it is a 2/1 shot today.  Normal each way terms would dictate that that horse is a 2/5 shot to finish placed but the fact of the matter is that it is probably as likely to finish last as it is to finish first (that is a slight exaggeration) because it is either going to be 100% fit and able to run up to its previous form, in which case it wins, or it isn't and will finish down the field and maybe be retired.  In that scenario the chances it finished second are much smaller than a horse who ran a similar race a couple of weeks ago and can reasonably be expected to run to its form.  This applies across sports.  Last year Sebastian Vettel starting on pole was as likely to not finish a grand prix as he was to finish 3rd.  This is why having a decent fundamental understanding of the sports is important.

I don't really think what I am saying needs this level of detail.  The horse is 30/1 to finish first and bigger than 30/1 to finish last.  The most likely distribution is that it is slightly bigger than 30/1 to finish 2nd and slightly bigger than that to finish 3rd.  I could go a bit crazy and build a model bringing in ground, fences and likelihood of falling at them, distance etc, but don't think it adds much.  If it was a flat race, I'd be a bit more confident on the maths of this, but it is clear some horses are going to be more likely fallers than others, so you might get horses that are real 25/1 to finish first, but also real 25/1 shots to be first faller.

I think worrying about all that definitely feels like a bit of spurious detail, and it is just useful to know the horse is a bit less likely to be 2nd than first and that is likely to be more pronounced the shorter a horse is.  And once you get beyond genuine 40/1 chances, you are likely to find horses that are more likely to be 2nd than 1st.

FWIW I think the Paddy Power price is slightly better than I implied above, as they will be NRNB and I doubt Betfair are. 

 

I asked the question not because of the topic being discussed but because I do a number of offers where I need to estimate the chance say a horse finishing in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place.

I think the maths behind this really needs to be on the maths in betting thread, as you need to use Bayesian probabilities.  To "correctly" work out the probability of something finishing 2nd you need to work out the probability it is 2nd to each of the other horses.  You can build those up from the Betfair odds for first for each horse.  Probability horse B is 2nd to horse A = probability horse A wins x probability horse B is 2nd given A wins.  By the time you get to 5th you are going to need a big spreadsheet with nested probabilities.

You can get round this by assuming that the place odds are going to be about right most of the time if liquidity is strong.  I can assume this as people like this exist http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeljko_Ranogajec.  If the market is big and liquid I assume somebody has built a decent model that they are using on Betfair or that the prices are just going to be about right because of the wisdom of crowds.

So if I have a Betfair price on top 4, I can just estimate top 5 by just multiplying that equivalent probability by 5/4.  

Of course this kind of thing falls apart if you have a 1/2 horse, 3 at 6/1 and everything else 33/1+, but you should be able to have a good guess when it falls over with some basic betting common sense if you profitably gamble on horses.

If you want more of the Bayesian stuff ask on the maths in betting thread and will reply given a large amount of free time.

Thank you for that Doobs.

I will indeed ask on the maths thread if I have any more questions of a similar nature.

[jakally]

Leicester V Wednesday

Leicester not so consistent these days, dropping a few points here & there & whilst they are comfortable better than Wednesday, I wouldn't say 7/1 for us to go there and beat them. They've recently played Tuesday v Yeovil, Saturday v Burnley & ysterday v Wigan. That squad could wo tih a rest & a Friday game must be absolutely horrible for them.

I think it shows you are more than capable of getting a result there - Yeovil nearly did & the tiredness must be kicking in.

7/1 in one place only with Boyles, recc £10

Leicester will win

Prepare to be my new sig!

lol

very happy to go with the underdog a lot of the time in the championship, but leicester rested their players last night and a win might be it for promotion. They will turn it on.   

My worry with this Aaron, is that Leicester have got much more motivation than Wednesday.
Even if there is a bit of perceived value normally (I'd got Wednesday at 6's), it may be negated by that factor.

[aaron1867]

I don't think motivation would be a key factor, we still have a few players here that are in their last year & a couple on loan who might want to be here next season. However think Richard makes a fair point about their squad 7 I didn't realise that they had rested players for the Wigan game. I would say we was probably safe a couple of weeks ago just about, but we still put out god perforamces & although the Watford result wasn't ideal, my personal view is that it flattered them!

[TightEnd]

REF: Photo gallery

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/manchester-united/10739481/Revealed-It-was-me-who-was-caught-looking-at-dogs-rather-than-the-football-at-Old-Trafford...-and-heres-why.html

Click to see full-size image.

[RickBFA]

I don't think motivation would be a key factor, we still have a few players here that are in their last year & a couple on loan who might want to be here next season. However think Richard makes a fair point about their squad 7 I didn't realise that they had rested players for the Wigan game. I would say we was probably safe a couple of weeks ago just about, but we still put out god perforamces & although the Watford result wasn't ideal, my personal view is that it flattered them!

Wednesday played like we were on holiday already against Watford.

If Wednesday turn up we might make a game of it but somehow I doubt it.

Watford were a much better team on Saturday and took Wednesday apart on the break.

[TL900]

thoughts on unders in the psg/chelsea game? Jose obv notorious for setting his teams up to defend in these big away games, I don't have any extra info that the bookies don't have but 4/6 just seems a little too good to my ice cream eyes.

[redarmi]

thoughts on unders in the psg/chelsea game? Jose obv notorious for setting his teams up to defend in these big away games, I don't have any extra info that the bookies don't have but 4/6 just seems a little too good to my ice cream eyes.

My starting point in these important two legged ties is always to look at unders in the first legs.  Teams just don't open up as much and are more likely to settle for getting beat by an odd goal and take it to the last leg whereas in a normal game when they are getting beat 1-0 they have to open up.  The market does discount for it but not enough imo.  Similarly the second legs often go crazy with goals especially late.

[Killerkilsby]

Hi,

Wondering if someone could give some feedback on 1 of the paddypower offers.

Tonight they have money back if hazard scores anytime on selected markets, one if these is the goalscorer market.

Just thinking Oscar 12/1 eway or Torres 10/1 eway must be a good bet as you are essentially covering all the main chelsea goalscorers with the money back offer.

Just want to understand whether the maths works here.

[Karabiner]

No strikers at all for chelski tonight.

[Doobs]

Hi,

Wondering if someone could give some feedback on 1 of the paddypower offers.

Tonight they have money back if hazard scores anytime on selected markets, one if these is the goalscorer market.

Just thinking Oscar 12/1 eway or Torres 10/1 eway must be a good bet as you are essentially covering all the main chelsea goalscorers with the money back offer.

Just want to understand whether the maths works here.

Each way is terrible if you expect a low scoring match.  If you can get best price plus the offer backing someone FGS with PP can't be bad.  I'd still load up Betfair to check the price wasn't too far out. 12/1 with concession is probably better than 14/1 without off the top of my head.

[Nico29]

Hi,

Wondering if someone could give some feedback on 1 of the paddypower offers.

Tonight they have money back if hazard scores anytime on selected markets, one if these is the goalscorer market.

Just thinking Oscar 12/1 eway or Torres 10/1 eway must be a good bet as you are essentially covering all the main chelsea goalscorers with the money back offer.

Just want to understand whether the maths works here.

This game is projected to be low scoring so prob not the best way for an ew option.

Also the place part dsnt get refunded on these refund offers.

Furthermore, pp seem to have changed from money back to free bet for most of these offers now, another minus point.

Torres additionally isn't starting.

In conclusion am not a fan.

About the only thing I like about this offer is that I hugely rate hazad and it's around a 4-1 shot you'll get a refund.

If I was choosing a bet i'd personally go for zlat at the best priced 9-2, obv win only tho. (sim priced on bf)

Gl!