Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

I'm far from horse racing expert but surely The New One is an auto lay at 1.38? Ticks my boxes, seen as very unlucky on last run and had hard race at Cheltenham- hard to believe it's ever going to be overpriced...

[Dubai]

Obv it's still fine for the £25 offer. The above is irrelevant to that

[tikay]

Obv it's still fine for the £25 offer. The above is irrelevant to that

Thanks Mr S.

For the Thread Thicko's amongst us, (not me, obv, I'm more thinking of the likes of Eso), can you explain how it can be right to both BET and LAY the same horse?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £25-00

outstanding bets £3890.44

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

No bets completed yesterday, I took the Tiger Woods bet as void, hence the swing to profit on the month

We have a £25 free bet on Paris Without Germans to win the Champions League, which was boosted by the result last night and PSG are now into 7-1 fourth favourites. In an interesting post match press conference Mourinho was asked about playing a false nine, no strikers and said "we do not have have strikers of suitable quality for this game" Time for Demba and Fernando to check their rental agreements and car leases...

Britt A scored for Peterborough last night. We have £12.50 at 40-1 League One golden boot, and its probably going to go to the last day

21 Wilson  (Coventry)
20 Assombalonga (Peterborough)
20 Baldock (Bristol City)
18 Garner  (Preston)
18 Lowe   (Tranmere)

In disappointing news, as Peterborough and Swindon are the only teams we have not backed to hit the play offs, Peterborough beat Colchester 2-0 to go 4 points clear of the rest in 6th. Pressure back on esokralsall, bet of the century and the tired no-hopers united.

In the MLB The Royals and the Orioles both lost last night. 160 games to go

In the T20WC today the first semi with our hopes Sri Lanka against the West Indies and our bowling hope Badree. A Sri Lanka win and badree remaining top West Indian bowler is probably what we want.

Aintree day one. Not the most exciting of fields, I think, but hopefully a winner or two on the way 

[tikay]

In disappointing news, as Peterborough and Swindon are the only teams we have not backed to hit the play offs, Peterborough beat Colchester 2-0 to go 4 points clear of the rest in 6th. Pressure back on esokralsall, bet of the century and the tired no-hopers united.


 

[scotty2hatty]

The substitutes thing is of course, simply, wrong.

[tikay]

The substitutes thing is of course, simply, wrong.

Bugger.

You've punctured my little bubble of intrigue.

[Waz1892]

The substitutes thing is of course, simply, wrong.

Bbc spory has 3 subs at 9mins?!

[Waz1892]

Roma / Parma game was called off in feb after 8 mins due to por weather, so it maybe something to do with that

[Doobs]

Obv it's still fine for the £25 offer. The above is irrelevant to that

Thanks Mr S.

For the Thread Thicko's amongst us, (not me, obv, I'm more thinking of the likes of Eso), can you explain how it can be right to both BET and LAY the same horse?

The free bet thing is always worth doing on The New One, because if it isn't first, it is most likely to be 2nd, so it is hard for that not to be value.

The laying Cheltenham horses at Aintree is a fairly old system.  The track is different, they peak at Cheltenham, the distance between them is short, Aintree may be an afterthought etc.  The New One had a hard race and I think Cheltenham is probably a better track for him.  So I instinctively want to lay, and laying at shorter than we backed him at is obviously a bonus.  Given a choice between two horses for the Will Hill offer around the same price, I'd lean towards the one that didn't run at Cheltenham if I knew nothing else of the horses.

I'd just back Mossey Joe.  Best odds guaranteed is going to protect us a lot of the time.  The maths is pretty strong on horses this short anyway.

[sonour]

Obv it's still fine for the £25 offer. The above is irrelevant to that

Thanks Mr S.

For the Thread Thicko's amongst us, (not me, obv, I'm more thinking of the likes of Eso), can you explain how it can be right to both BET and LAY the same horse?

It is a lay at 1.38 period

It is a bet at 1.4 with BOG and the 2nd place refund offer.

It would not be a bet at 1.4 without BOG and 2nd place refund offer

[geordieneil]

just had this message from butt356

i stuck "more" national bets on and instantly got half my stake back

Hi Neil

The Grand National takes place on Saturday 5th April and we’ve got a fantastic money back offer for each-way bets placed on the world’s greatest horse race.

All you have to do is place your bets on the Grand National between Thursday 3rd April and midday on Saturday 5th April. We will then give you half the stake back for every each-way bet that you place, up to a maximum total refund of £125 per customer.

To ensure that your refund is credited as quickly as possible, please only include Grand National bets on your bet slip. Refunds will be credited to your account within 12 hours of bet placement.

To add to the unbeatable value, we are also Non-Runner No Bet and paying 1/4 odds for the first FIVE places on the big race.

With enhanced place terms on selected races and the bet365 Price Promise, our Channel 4/1 Offer and Best Odds Guaranteed also available throughout the three days - bet365 is the best place to enjoy this year’s Grand National meeting at Aintree.

Enjoy the action!
The bet365 Team

Terms and Conditions apply


the terms are here, pretty straight forward, max 125 in free returns, and must already have account
http://www.bet365.com/extra/promotions/horse-racing/grand-national-2014/

[TightEnd]

Home for a free bet?

Derbyshire 7-1 to win County Championship Div Two (which starts in 19 days) Wlliam Hill

fourth favourites behind surrey, hants and essex. At least 4 of the 9 teams in this are genuine outsiders due to financial considerations, squad depth and strength. derbyshire have just produced their 8th profit in 9 years and have no such concerns

market skewed because surrey have big names, but actually they are rebuilding with youngsters and can be opposed at the price

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/winner

Derbyshire just got relegated last season, actually a very creditable performance, have one of the best domestic batsmen in madsen, an overseas in chanderpaul who churns out runs and a lot of young talent (particularly spinners, which is unusual for them)

Most importantly of all they play at Derby (yes, they do) which produces result wickets.....and this is vital with 24 points for winning a game with max bonus points compared to a maxmium of 11 for the draw

you need to win games, and surrey play at the oval, which is not prepared to produce result wickets. hampshire at the ageas also, only result wickets in the second half of the season when they dry out to take spin


secondary bet £15 e/w derbyshire william hill 7-1 1/5 top 3. I have them in my top three every day of the week at this stage

--

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-1/county-championship-division-1/winner

cc1 is genuinely tough, i could make a case for six of the teams in a really tight heat, and i won't be recommending a bet this season. hopefully gherkin has some ideas.   

A further bet please

Tim Groenewald Top Division two wicket taker £10 e/w BMU 16/1 1/4 1,2,3,4

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-bowler

last season he took 45 wickets in div one.

going to take 65+ in div 2 to win this

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/bowling/most_wickets_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

4 of last year's top 5 wicket takers are out of the division, promoted or retired

groenewald is more than double the price of the favourite, the Australian Michael Hogan down at Glamorgan.

Derby is a result wicket, div two batting strength is weaker - lots of young players in 5-6 of the teams, and this market is also skewed by putting guys who can't win this (dernbach, tremlett, ajmal etc) in at lowish prices as they are big names for the bigger teams

If you wanted a portfolio Groenewald, David Masters, James Tomlinson at 16's and Tim Linley at 25's against the field.

--

another bet

another skewed market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-batsman

graeme smith installed at 9-1 is ludicrous...not a prolific run scorer these days

of the rest the hampshire and derbyshire lads have every chance. Moeen ali could miss time playing for england, as well

wayne madsen finished 2nd in div 1 last year scoring over 1200 runs for a side that won 3 out of 16 games

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7905;type=tournament

going to take 1400 or so to win this

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

yet we can have him at 14-1 william hill to win this, £20 outright


second batsman bet, and a bigger one

Leicestershire were by far the weakest county last year yet Ned Eckersley broke through, scoring nearly 1300 runs in a mostly losing side. he's only 24, and should be poached by a bigger county after this season

this year, while unlikely to be at the top end, they should at least be more competitive (a lot of off field ructions last year had the side thinking of the end of the season by about june) and Eckersley is priced up at 25-1

We can get 1/4 the odds top 5

Magnificent bet, famous last words

£30 e/w Eckersley top division two run scorer bet victor


--

i choose division two because

a) division one is better known (efficient markets)
b) division two is unfashionable (can be mis-priced)
c) i watch a lot of it along with three pensioners and their dogs, and i'll take my knowledge against the office junior at buttermeup on this

[tikay]

5.25 at aintree, im convinced spirit of shankly is better than its current mark and even more convinced it will improve for the step up to 3miles tomorrow.
soemthing about its run on the 11th of jan just screamed this race to me. Had a good win bet at 14/1

Oh my, a very rare visit to Fred by Mr 10,000 Post man, Mr Trigg, so we are honoured, & ought to get on.

Lord Adz seconded it, too. 

Thank you Rick, & call again.

We have £10 EW @ 12/1, (qtr odds, 1,2,3,4), Spirit of Shankly, BetFred,


Bet placed, its reference is 314/340



Bet ref: 314/340 £10.00 Single





3m 1/2f Hcap Hdle
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4 Spirit Of Shankly 12/1 


Total stake
£ 20.00

Estimated return
£ 170.00


Full stake
£ 20.00

Full estimated return
£ 170.00


BET PLACED

[booder]

another bet

another skewed market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/county-championship-div-2/county-championship-division-2/top-batsman

graeme smith installed at 9-1 is ludicrous...not a prolific run scorer these days

of the rest the hampshire and derbyshire lads have every chance. Moeen ali could miss time playing for england, as well

wayne madsen finished 2nd in div 1 last year scoring over 1200 runs for a side that won 3 out of 16 games

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7905;type=tournament

going to take 1400 or so to win this

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/county-championship-div2-2013/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=7906;type=tournament

yet we can have him at 14-1 william hill to win this, £20 outright

Ilike this bet Rich.Madsen is certainly a contender.

Good season long sweat for the next free bet we get from Billy Hills IMO.