Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

Just throwing it out there..

I actually do have a bet I like tomoro dependant on team news. Think Kallstrom is big price FGS @20/1 if he starts

[tikay]

Compared to Patrick Reed, Jordan behaved like a saint.

I mean seriously the guy is 20.

Gen didn't think he did much wrong at all.

Amen to that - I'd REALLY struggle to back Reed, who struck me as a really horrible unit.

[BorntoBubble]

Can the Bet 365 FGS backers help me again!

City v Sunderland

Bet365 are best priced on Augero Negrado and Dzeko.

Yaya is 5/1 also but my guess is he wont be playing this game after hobbling off on Sunday as it is an "easy" game.

City are known for smashing teams and also on the back off Sunday i would expect them to come out all guns blazing. Sunderland have also been smashed away recently. (My thinking is this bet is good when one team is a huge odds on fav and they score lots of goals - helped by the other team conceding lots?)

They beat Southampton and Fulham 4-1 and 5-0 in there last two home games. Sunderland have lost 5-1 2-1 2-0 in there last three away games (tottenham, Liverpool and Norwich)

So what im thinking is backing

Augero 13/5 E/W
Dzeko 4/1 E/W
and
Negrado 4/1 E/W

Discuss... and help me!

[tikay]

GG Caroline.

Loved this, in a non-loving way.

"The communications clinic does not comment on Rory's private life."




http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/oct/14/rory-mcilroy-split-caroline-wozniacki

[Nico29]

Tighty can hide behind the couch, but Liverpool look v short again. 1.37 away to Norwich. Thoughts?

Like it. Especially in that over a very small sample size the media has latched on to how well Liverpool ALWAYS do at Norwich.

By the way kind of aftertiming but ty for your post a week or so back about west ham liv, swansea chelski.

Lost on the west ham lay obv, but got that back and more thanks to your logic regarding chelski@8-11-especially considering 10-11 was freely available yesterday.

Only worry with pool lay is what a shambles the home side are in, tbh I can see them starting even shorter.

Their home form is still pretty good though, would have hugely loved this bet with Houghton still there, might wait till it touches 1.33 till I enter the murky waters myself.

[horseplayer]

Smiley Kuchar would be the one i would be most negative about

Retreated very sharply within a hole of hitting the front for the third time in three weeks

[Tal]

Turns out Rory watches Sky Poker and listened to the expert in the Green Red jacket, who advised against mixing business with pleasure.

Oh, and Pleno, if oddschecker tells you the best price is 2/1 and Dubai offers you 5/2, take the 2/1. It's MUCH better value.

[redarmi]

I think laying Everton on betfair at 1.42 or any better variant elsewhere is a good bet against Palace. I have no penchant of sticking to facts and straying away from hyperbole in support of my team, so no attempt at an explanation but maybe someone else can see this as a bet as well?

Not sure why they are a lay?

Palace have been fantastic as of late but especially at home. I believe Saturday's result saw them more or less 100% safe (100-1 to go down) and I can imagine some of them may have celebrated as such. Not that Pullis would have intentionally allowed it!

For Everton to be a lay either they are over-rated-or Palace are under-rated by the market.

I cannot see how this can be the case here.

If anything i'd be backing Everton on the handicap markets tbh.

There does seem to be a slight disconnect between the hcap and 12x prices in this game.  If you are going to have a bet then Everton -1.5 2.20 or laying 1.42 Everton seem to be the optimal routes and normally they would be a slight +EV polish middle (where you effectively lay the middle to the bookies) against each other but Palace do keep it tight.  If you fancy Palace I think I would rather bet under 2.5 goals and have 1-0 and 2-0 Everton on my side.  I don't see that many scenarios where Palace score a lot of goals here

[Karabiner]

Compared to Patrick Reed, Jordan behaved like a saint.

I mean seriously the guy is 20.

Gen didn't think he did much wrong at all.

I don't like that whacking his driver into the ground after hitting a bad tee-shot, I find that inexcusable bad behavour on a golf course, almost on a par with club-throwing.

I was taught how to behave properly on a golf course at an early age as i'm sure he was so I don't like the fact that he possibly thinks he doesn't have to conform to those standards now that he is a star/millionaire.

Bubba produced some pretty rank behavour last year when he repeatedly swore at his caddy but seems to have overcome that trait. Either that or he didn't hit any bad shots.

[Ant040689]

I think laying Everton on betfair at 1.42 or any better variant elsewhere is a good bet against Palace. I have no penchant of sticking to facts and straying away from hyperbole in support of my team, so no attempt at an explanation but maybe someone else can see this as a bet as well?

Not sure why they are a lay?

Palace have been fantastic as of late but especially at home. I believe Saturday's result saw them more or less 100% safe (100-1 to go down) and I can imagine some of them may have celebrated as such. Not that Pullis would have intentionally allowed it!

For Everton to be a lay either they are over-rated-or Palace are under-rated by the market.

I cannot see how this can be the case here.

If anything i'd be backing Everton on the handicap markets tbh.

I think Palace have enough to really frustrate Everton, with our defensive style. I think the Palace away record isn't really telling of just how close we were to getting more draws or nabbing more victories. Now Palace have a little bit more confidence in front of goal to add to that defensive resoluteness. I think it is clever betting against a team that has a run as silly as Everton's as the market probably accommodates that more over the threat of Palace in this sort of situation, especially as i think the away record under Pulis disguises Palace's true worth.

On the nearly safe, and therefore nothing to fight for theory, we are not there yet, our games coming up are tough, we are probably going into this Everton game as hard as the previous three. Also there is an element, I feel of Palace announcing themselves even more so than they already have, all of these players at the beginning of the season had to deal with press saying they were no hopers, now they are riding high, and with Everton, Man City and Liverpool coming up, I would suggest there is a statement to be made here by the players to frustrate these teams in their very important goals of league positioning. I think that would stop a lot of our players going into holiday mode, also a lot of them are fighting for contracts ending in the summer. If Palace do get 40 points though, then I think the holiday theory should be met with a bit more credence for games thereafter.  

It's all good though.

[tikay]

"polish middle"

Can you explain that, please?

I do know what "polish" means though. Unless you mean't "Polish".

[BigAdz]

SPOTY

Not gonna make a recommend, far too risky in current climate, but thoughts please.

1, Stevie G. The juice has been sucked out in the last 24 hours but 10-1.  Still rather be late to the party than miss the party. If Pool win the titile the Scousers will be out in their masses to vote for their idol. No one has any expectations of us doing at all well in the WC, so any half decent showing on top of that or a couple of goals from him, also gives you a second bite of the cherry.

Thoughts anyone?

My racing recommends are sinking on here, so I'm having to branch out.

Hope someone else joined in.

[Nico29]

Can the Bet 365 FGS backers help me again!

City v Sunderland

Bet365 are best priced on Augero Negrado and Dzeko.

Yaya is 5/1 also but my guess is he wont be playing this game after hobbling off on Sunday as it is an "easy" game.

City are known for smashing teams and also on the back off Sunday i would expect them to come out all guns blazing. Sunderland have also been smashed away recently. (My thinking is this bet is good when one team is a huge odds on fav and they score lots of goals - helped by the other team conceding lots?)

They beat Southampton and Fulham 4-1 and 5-0 in there last two home games. Sunderland have lost 5-1 2-1 2-0 in there last three away games (tottenham, Liverpool and Norwich)

So what im thinking is backing

Augero 13/5 E/W
Dzeko 4/1 E/W
and
Negrado 4/1 E/W

Discuss... and help me!

Great game for this offer as city are 1/6 and over 2.5 goals is a general 1/3 shot.

PP go 1/5 first 3 ew, says it all...

You do know that continued absuse of this offer will be dangerous for your account's long term health though?

Good let's move on.
Might want to see if aguerro is going to start this match before investing too much-but i'm still going to prob get on.

If he does we are getting best priced on the win (3.6) and a fantastic 1.88 on him to score at anytime-8/13 best on fixed odds.

Tbh that's a bet no matter what,  only risk is him being a sub (still don't hate it-just more neutral) and coming on late at nil nil, otherwise it's refunded should he appear after a goal has gone in. Can only see his price shortening if he starts.

As far as Dzeko goes that looks fair, also best priced and 2.33 on a 5/6 shot for anytime, again only risk is if he's sub.

Negredo i'd leave out purely on current form alone.

I also really like Silva@15-2, and to a small extent-prob wont back him-Nasri.

[Karabiner]

SPOTY

Not gonna make a recommend, far too risky in current climate, but thoughts please.

1, Stevie G. The juice has been sucked out in the last 24 hours but 10-1.  Still rather be late to the party than miss the party. If Pool win the titile the Scousers will be out in their masses to vote for their idol. No one has any expectations of us doing at all well in the WC, so any half decent showing on top of that or a couple of goals from him, also gives you a second bite of the cherry.

Thoughts anyone?

My racing recommends are sinking on here, so I'm having to branch out.

Hope someone else joined in.

I'm sure that D J that Stevie slapped about for not putting Phil Collins on will be voting for the likeable chappie.

[Ant040689]

I think laying Everton on betfair at 1.42 or any better variant elsewhere is a good bet against Palace. I have no penchant of sticking to facts and straying away from hyperbole in support of my team, so no attempt at an explanation but maybe someone else can see this as a bet as well?

Not sure why they are a lay?

Palace have been fantastic as of late but especially at home. I believe Saturday's result saw them more or less 100% safe (100-1 to go down) and I can imagine some of them may have celebrated as such. Not that Pullis would have intentionally allowed it!

For Everton to be a lay either they are over-rated-or Palace are under-rated by the market.

I cannot see how this can be the case here.

If anything i'd be backing Everton on the handicap markets tbh.

There does seem to be a slight disconnect between the hcap and 12x prices in this game.  If you are going to have a bet then Everton -1.5 2.20 or laying 1.42 Everton seem to be the optimal routes and normally they would be a slight +EV polish middle (where you effectively lay the middle to the bookies) against each other but Palace do keep it tight.  If you fancy Palace I think I would rather bet under 2.5 goals and have 1-0 and 2-0 Everton on my side.  I don't see that many scenarios where Palace score a lot of goals here

Nearly put up the under 2.5 at around evens, which i think is good and probably factors in Everton's record of being involved in games over that amount too much, but i hate sweating that bet, and preferred a bet over 2/1 on an eventuality i think comes in more times than that price suggests.