Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Putting an apostrophe in meant may well finish Tal.

I did mean Polish, or at least I think I did, but I am not 100% on the origin.  It is basically where you bet the dog to win (or not lose) the game whilst also betting on the favourite to cover the handicap.  So in the NFL you would bet, say 6/4 the Seahawks and Denver -2.5 10/11 with the idea being you lose both bets if the game lands 1 or 2 but the price you are getting for that risk represents value effectively.  Kind of like an arbitrage with risk if that makes sense.

[BigAdz]

Smiley Kuchar would be the one i would be most negative about

Retreated very sharply within a hole of hitting the front for the third time in three weeks

Normally Koch hits form post Masters, so the fact he has been so close, and looking so calm through it is all positive for me.

Late May 2013, happy days!

[BorntoBubble]

Can the Bet 365 FGS backers help me again!

City v Sunderland

Bet365 are best priced on Augero Negrado and Dzeko.

Yaya is 5/1 also but my guess is he wont be playing this game after hobbling off on Sunday as it is an "easy" game.

City are known for smashing teams and also on the back off Sunday i would expect them to come out all guns blazing. Sunderland have also been smashed away recently. (My thinking is this bet is good when one team is a huge odds on fav and they score lots of goals - helped by the other team conceding lots?)

They beat Southampton and Fulham 4-1 and 5-0 in there last two home games. Sunderland have lost 5-1 2-1 2-0 in there last three away games (tottenham, Liverpool and Norwich)

So what im thinking is backing

Augero 13/5 E/W
Dzeko 4/1 E/W
and
Negrado 4/1 E/W

Discuss... and help me!

Great game for this offer as city are 1/6 and over 2.5 goals is a general 1/3 shot.

PP go 1/5 first 3 ew, says it all...

You do know that continued absuse of this offer will be dangerous for your account's long term health though?

Good let's move on.
Might want to see if aguerro is going to start this match before investing too much-but i'm still going to prob get on.

If he does we are getting best priced on the win (3.6) and a fantastic 1.88 on him to score at anytime-8/13 best on fixed odds.

Tbh that's a bet no matter what,  only risk is him being a sub (still don't hate it-just more neutral) and coming on late at nil nil, otherwise it's refunded should he appear after a goal has gone in. Can only see his price shortening if he starts.

As far as Dzeko goes that looks fair, also best priced and 2.33 on a 5/6 shot for anytime, again only risk is if he's sub.

Negredo i'd leave out purely on current form alone.

I also really like Silva@15-2, and to a small extent-prob wont back him-Nasri.

Cheers, I have my own account still fully functional at the minute. Not bothered about losing it to good bets as I have access to lots of accounts (WAFL)

May have a dabble later thanks for all the feedback really helps and these are the things i love this thread for i would never have known about this unless it was for this thread and hopefully its going to make me money long terma nd gives me something to sweat on the game!

Would rec for the thread but Tikay probably can only get £2.50 on or whatever if Tikay/Tighty fancys anything let me know and i can get on tonight

Think im going with augero dezko and will have a dabble on silva as well then!

Cheers

[Nico29]

I think laying Everton on betfair at 1.42 or any better variant elsewhere is a good bet against Palace. I have no penchant of sticking to facts and straying away from hyperbole in support of my team, so no attempt at an explanation but maybe someone else can see this as a bet as well?

Not sure why they are a lay?

Palace have been fantastic as of late but especially at home. I believe Saturday's result saw them more or less 100% safe (100-1 to go down) and I can imagine some of them may have celebrated as such. Not that Pullis would have intentionally allowed it!

For Everton to be a lay either they are over-rated-or Palace are under-rated by the market.

I cannot see how this can be the case here.

If anything i'd be backing Everton on the handicap markets tbh.

I think Palace have enough to really frustrate Everton, with our defensive style. I think the Palace away record isn't really telling of just how close we were to getting more draws or nabbing more victories. Now Palace have a little bit more confidence in front of goal to add to that defensive resoluteness. I think it is clever betting against a team that has a run as silly as Everton's as the market probably accommodates that more over the threat of Palace in this sort of situation, especially as i think the away record under Pulis disguises Palace's true worth.

On the nearly safe, and therefore nothing to fight for theory, we are not there yet, our games coming up are tough, we are probably going into this Everton game as hard as the previous three. Also there is an element, I feel of Palace announcing themselves even more so than they already have, all of these players at the beginning of the season had to deal with press saying they were no hopers, now they are riding high, and with Everton, Man City and Liverpool coming up, I would suggest there is a statement to be made here by the players to frustrate these teams in their very important goals of league positioning. I think that would stop a lot of our players going into holiday mode, also a lot of them are fighting for contracts ending in the summer. If Palace do get 40 points though, then I think the holiday theory should be met with a bit more credence for games thereafter.  

It's all good though.

Fair arguments. I just think it's all in the price.

Oh and you are 100% safe. You are 100-1 to go down with the books. I think that's a value lay tbh.

More I think about it the more I like Everton.

Think there will be a lot of people latching on to Palace's improved form as of late and perhaps forgetting how well Everton are playing.

[Tal]

Putting an apostrophe in meant may well finish Tal.

I did mean Polish, or at least I think I did, but I am not 100% on the origin.  It is basically where you bet the dog to win (or not lose) the game whilst also betting on the favourite to cover the handicap.  So in the NFL you would bet, say 6/4 the Seahawks and Denver -2.5 10/11 with the idea being you lose both bets if the game lands 1 or 2 but the price you are getting for that risk represents value effectively.  Kind of like an arbitrage with risk if that makes sense.

I'm all good with the oddpostrophe (yes, I made that word up).

Is it the same as an inverted middle?

(And I believe I've heard it spoken as Polish, rather than polish, so I'd assume it were like Chinese Walls Information Barriers and various other not-so-politically-correct expressions that are becoming obsolete)

Very interesting stuff, red, though.

[Nico29]

SPOTY

Not gonna make a recommend, far too risky in current climate, but thoughts please.

1, Stevie G. The juice has been sucked out in the last 24 hours but 10-1.  Still rather be late to the party than miss the party. If Pool win the titile the Scousers will be out in their masses to vote for their idol. No one has any expectations of us doing at all well in the WC, so any half decent showing on top of that or a couple of goals from him, also gives you a second bite of the cherry.

Thoughts anyone?

My racing recommends are sinking on here, so I'm having to branch out.

Hope someone else joined in.

Aha it was you who'd put it up!

Knew I had seen someone mention it a few weeks ago.

Let my heart rule my head at time, couldn't follow my sworn fred enemy's tip!

Hope you got on.

[redarmi]

Tighty can hide behind the couch, but Liverpool look v short again. 1.37 away to Norwich. Thoughts?

Like it. Especially in that over a very small sample size the media has latched on to how well Liverpool ALWAYS do at Norwich.

By the way kind of aftertiming but ty for your post a week or so back about west ham liv, swansea chelski.

Lost on the west ham lay obv, but got that back and more thanks to your logic regarding chelski@8-11-especially considering 10-11 was freely available yesterday.

Only worry with pool lay is what a shambles the home side are in, tbh I can see them starting even shorter.

Their home form is still pretty good though, would have hugely loved this bet with Houghton still there, might wait till it touches 1.33 till I enter the murky waters myself.

I like this too but the pleasure I will get from seeing the wheels fall off require no monetary reward but I seem to be largely alone in that, well maybe Boris Johnson is with me.  That said I also love Patrick Reed and will not have anything said against the man.

[Mark_Porter]

GG Caroline.

Loved this, in a non-loving way.

"The communications clinic does not comment on Rory's private life."




http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/oct/14/rory-mcilroy-split-caroline-wozniacki

This is an old article from last year, I don't think they were 'split' for long before they were back together.

[tikay]

GG Caroline.

Loved this, in a non-loving way.

"The communications clinic does not comment on Rory's private life."




http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2013/oct/14/rory-mcilroy-split-caroline-wozniacki

This is an old article from last year, I don't think they were 'split' for long before they were back together.

Lol.

As you were.

There was me thinking there might be some value in a resurgent Rory.

Cancel that.

[nirvana]

I have to say, I thought Speith looked pretty composed all the way through and far less scowly and bristly than I used to find Tiger when things didn't go his way.

I think the most tilting thing when watching golf is metronomic players with over long pre-shot rituals and general pfaffing.

Was quite refreshing watching Speith and Bubba play at such a good standard at a decent pace when under so much pressure - makes me like the lad

[Nico29]

Pretty sure Rory and Cazza are now engaged.

Looked very happy together in the par 3 contest last week when she was his caddy.

She holed a putt from 25 feet? and seemed a mean golfer herself!

[BigAdz]

SPOTY

Not gonna make a recommend, far too risky in current climate, but thoughts please.

1, Stevie G. The juice has been sucked out in the last 24 hours but 10-1.  Still rather be late to the party than miss the party. If Pool win the titile the Scousers will be out in their masses to vote for their idol. No one has any expectations of us doing at all well in the WC, so any half decent showing on top of that or a couple of goals from him, also gives you a second bite of the cherry.

Thoughts anyone?

My racing recommends are sinking on here, so I'm having to branch out.

Hope someone else joined in.

Aha it was you who'd put it up!

Knew I had seen someone mention it a few weeks ago.

Let my heart rule my head at time, couldn't follow my sworn fred enemy's tip!

Hope you got on.

I sure did. Never post wot I haven't already backed.


Sworn Fred enemy? Blimey! I know I must wind up the vast majority of Freddie's, especially Tikay and the Elders, but enemies.....cool!

[Nico29]

SPOTY

Not gonna make a recommend, far too risky in current climate, but thoughts please.

1, Stevie G. The juice has been sucked out in the last 24 hours but 10-1.  Still rather be late to the party than miss the party. If Pool win the titile the Scousers will be out in their masses to vote for their idol. No one has any expectations of us doing at all well in the WC, so any half decent showing on top of that or a couple of goals from him, also gives you a second bite of the cherry.

Thoughts anyone?

My racing recommends are sinking on here, so I'm having to branch out.

Hope someone else joined in.

Aha it was you who'd put it up!

Knew I had seen someone mention it a few weeks ago.

Let my heart rule my head at time, couldn't follow my sworn fred enemy's tip!

Hope you got on.

I sure did. Never post wot I haven't already backed.


Sworn Fred enemy? Blimey! I know I must wind up the vast majority of Freddie's, especially Tikay and the Elders, but enemies.....cool!

Enemy might be a touch harsh.

Not best mate prob not strong enough.

Let's just leave it at that!

[Tal]

Pretty sure Rory and Cazza are now engaged.

Looked very happy together in the par 3 contest last week when she was his caddy.

She holed a putt from 25 feet? and seemed a mean golfer herself!

Figured Fred's version of Peter Aliss was spinning us a yarn. Looks like I got double bluffed!

I just went along with the level

[Nico29]

Regarding the ew betting on fgs in the man city game.

Was quite surprised to see 3.35 with unibet/888 on Silva to score anytime.

That's only very slightly worse than the 3.5 the place you get if you back him ew at 15/2 with 365.

As the whole point of these bets is in the value attained from the place part, I think is a very fair price.

Will most likely just back him at that price rather than going ew.

Think Aguerro@13/5 ew is an amazing bet if he starts due to the place part's value. Doubt we will give up hardly anything to betfair on the win part either. If anyone can get on with 365 please lmk, i'd love a proper bet on this.