Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

WH mobile offer

2.55 Kempton Zurigha 5/4

Morning Lisa, & thank you.

We are safely aboard.


£25 @ 5/4, Wm Hill, GUARANTEED PRICE, Zurigha, 2.55. £25 Free Bet if 2nd.


19 Apr 14 / 09:33

Stake

2:55 Kempton – Zurigha @ Guaranteed Price (5/4)

- £25.00

O/0457483/0000932/F

BET PLACED

[tikay]

Fred have Josh Warrington at evens to beat Rendall Munroe. Gift. Rendall is shot to pieces, he is only boxing because he couldn't get his job back as a binman. He struggles to let his hands go and the work rate of Warrington will see him win comfortably. If its still there in the morning take it. Will prob go off 4/5 due to Rendall's rep. Should go off closer to 1/2

Morning Bazza.

We already have this? I'm a little out of touch, but I don't recall seeing it, & I can't find it on the Spready.

Anyway, BetFred were a bit out of line @ 10/11 this morning, so I invested a triple-wiple Max (£55) @ 10/11.


 Bet placed, its reference is 329/361
 
Bet ref: 329/361 £55.00 Single


Warrington v Munroe
Bout 3 way


Warrington, Josh

10/11

 
Total stake

£ 55.00



Estimated return

£ 105.00




£ 55.00



Full estimated return

£ 105.00


BET PLACED

[tikay]

Had a fun day in Ladbrokes today with arbboy.

We both managed to convert all the cash in our pockets to our Betfair balances on a day when the banks were closed.

Very clever that.

Can you explain that Lisa?

Maybe I'm the only one too dumb to suss it, but I'm intrigued. 

Is it like a sort of Ladbrokes related alchemy?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alchemy

[arbboy]

NBA Playoffs start today.

Pinnacle bet to very low margins on this in the outright book and offer prices teams DON'T win the title as well as do to low margins so we can assume the Pinny's prices as usual are far more accurate than the vast majority of UK books on oddschecker.  They are very strong on the 2 favs (Spurs and Heat).  Pinnacle are offering bigger than 3/10 that the Spurs don't win the NBA.  In other words they are happy to back the Spurs with their own money at just over 3/1 to win the title.  We can do so at 7/2 with the vast majority of uk books and i strongly recommend we do.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Basketball+Props/NBA/Futures/Lines.aspx

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

In a similar vein they also offer bigger than 8/11 the Spurs don't win the NBA Western Conference (therefore willing to back the Spurs at 11/8 they do win) we can freely get bigger at 6/4 and i strongly recommend we do.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/western-conference/winner

The fact we have already backed OKC doesn't matter.  These are separate bets at a different time with positive EV.

Recommend £50 Spurs NBA Championship 7/2 (various firms)
Recommend £50 Spurs NBA Western Conference 6/4 (various firms)

Obviously given the fact they are willing to bet these markets at 3/1 and 11/8 with their own money Pinnacle obviously make them shorter than those respective prices otherwise they wouldn't be willing to back them effectively with their own market via their two way market.

[arbboy]

Given the above recommendations i thought fred had missed the value on the 'name the finalists' market with ladbrokes.  I managed to get a lump on Spurs/Heat final at 5/1 with ladbrokes when they first went up a week or so ago.

Given pinnacles prices for the two conferences for Heat (4/6) and Spurs (5/4) that makes it an 11/4 double and we can get 10/3 with ladbrokes for a Heat Spurs final.  Don't think anyone will struggle to get on this even in a restricted account as if you click through from the oddschecker link it says a 'virgin' account can have £30k at 10/3 so ladbrokes have set this market up for £100k liab so even a 1% account should be able to get £300 on it.  (7/2 is available with you win for those who wish to attempt to get on)

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/name-the-finalists

Recommend £50 heat v spurs 10/3 Ladbrokes name the finalist market.

[arbboy]

In a similar vein Heat are 4/5 with Boyles (i know fred can't get on) to win the East Pinnacle offer nearly 6/4 they don't win it.  A clear arb and i know which side of this trade i would prefer to be on if we could get on at Boyles.  Obviously for info purposes only for those people lucky enough to get on at Boyles.

[arbboy]

NBA MVP finals market

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/finals-mvp

Given we are backing the Spurs at 7/2 to win the title the following market is also of interest as we can effectively back the only two Spurs players who can realistically win the MVP should the Spurs win the title. Duncan (9/1 - 10%) and Parker (11/1 - 8.2%).  These are combined 18.2% which is close to a 9/2 shot yet Spurs are close to a 3/1 shot to win the nba.  For the super nits out there who think Manu Ginobl (33/1 -coral) could win the MVP you could also add him into the coupled bet.  Not for me personally i prefer to go with the front 2.

Recommend £20 on both at ladbrokes.

Duncan 9/1 £20 Win
Parker 11/1 £20 win (both ladbrokes)

[tikay]

NBA Playoffs start today.

Pinnacle bet to very low margins on this in the outright book and offer prices teams DON'T win the title as well as do to low margins so we can assume the Pinny's prices as usual are far more accurate than the vast majority of UK books on oddschecker.  They are very strong on the 2 favs (Spurs and Heat).  Pinnacle are offering bigger than 3/10 that the Spurs don't win the NBA.  In other words they are happy to back the Spurs with their own money at just over 3/1 to win the title.  We can do so at 7/2 with the vast majority of uk books and i strongly recommend we do.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ContestCategory/Basketball+Props/NBA/Futures/Lines.aspx

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

In a similar vein they also offer 8/11 the Spurs don't win the NBA Western Conference (therefore willing to back the Spurs at 11/8 they do win) we can freely get bigger at 6/4 and i strongly recommend we do.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/western-conference/winner

The fact we have already backed OKC doesn't matter.  These are separate bets at a different time with positive EV.

Recommend £50 Spurs NBA Championship 7/2 (various firms)
Recommend £50 Spurs NBA Western Conference 6/4 (various firms)

Obviously given the fact they are willing to bet these markets at 3/1 and 11/8 with their own money Pinnacle obviously make them shorter than those respective prices otherwise they wouldn't be willing to back them effectively with their own market via their two way market.

Thanks Mark.

If only I knew what all that meant.......I'm pretty sure it's Basketball, right?

We got £50 @ 7/2, Wm Hill, Spurs to win the NBA Championship. Ladbrokes wanted to restrict me to £28.57.

And £50 @ 6/4, Spurs to win Western Conf, Ladbrokes.



Reference



19 Apr 14 / 10:14

Stake

NBA - Championship Winner 2014 – San Antonio Spurs @ 7/2

- £50.00

O/0457483/0000933/F


 0000585 Single (To win) 1 £50.00  2013/2014 Western Conference Conference winner  San Antonio Spurs  6/4

2 BETS PLACED

[Marky147]

You been smashing the Weetabix this morning, Mark?

Quicker out of the blocks than Holdem Spy today!

[tikay]

Given the above recommendations i thought fred had missed the value on the 'name the finalists' market with ladbrokes.  I managed to get a lump on Spurs/Heat final at 5/1 with ladbrokes when they first went up a week or so ago.

Given pinnacles prices for the two conferences for Heat (4/6) and Spurs (5/4) that makes it an 11/4 double and we can get 10/3 with ladbrokes for a Heat Spurs final.  Don't think anyone will struggle to get on this even in a restricted account as if you click through from the oddschecker link it says a 'virgin' account can have £30k at 10/3 so ladbrokes have set this market up for £100k liab so even a 1% account should be able to get £300 on it.  (7/2 is available with you win for those who wish to attempt to get on)

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/name-the-finalists

Recommend £50 heat v spurs 10/3 Ladbrokes name the finalist market.

I suspect Ladbrokes may have set their "limit field" wrong on that one, you are correct, I COULD have had £3,000! (Don't get any ideas, please).

We have £50 @ 0/30, Ladbrokes, "Name the Finalists", Heat v Spurs.


19/04/2014 0000586 Single (To win) 1 £50.00  2013/2014 NBA Championship Name the finalists  Miami Heat & San Antonio Spurs  10/3

BET PLACED

[arbboy]

Yes that's all fine.  BF sportsbook offer 4.5 commission free whilst you can lay the spurs at 4.1 on their exchange.  Yet another example of how comically bad bf sportsbook is as an operation.

[tikay]

You been smashing the Weetabix this morning, Mark?

Quicker out of the blocks than Holdem Spy today!

Tell him to stop, stop right now! The kitty will be empty by noon @ this rate, Tighty will go nuts when he gets back.

[arbboy]

Given the above recommendations i thought fred had missed the value on the 'name the finalists' market with ladbrokes.  I managed to get a lump on Spurs/Heat final at 5/1 with ladbrokes when they first went up a week or so ago.

Given pinnacles prices for the two conferences for Heat (4/6) and Spurs (5/4) that makes it an 11/4 double and we can get 10/3 with ladbrokes for a Heat Spurs final.  Don't think anyone will struggle to get on this even in a restricted account as if you click through from the oddschecker link it says a 'virgin' account can have £30k at 10/3 so ladbrokes have set this market up for £100k liab so even a 1% account should be able to get £300 on it.  (7/2 is available with you win for those who wish to attempt to get on)

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/name-the-finalists

Recommend £50 heat v spurs 10/3 Ladbrokes name the finalist market.

I suspect Ladbrokes may have set their "limit field" wrong on that one, you are correct, I COULD have had £3,000! (Don't get any ideas, please).

We have £50 @ 0/30, Ladbrokes, "Name the Finalists", Heat v Spurs.


19/04/2014 0000586 Single (To win) 1 £50.00  2013/2014 NBA Championship Name the finalists  Miami Heat & San Antonio Spurs  10/3

BET PLACED

I was very surprised myself when a 'friend' of mine asking for £1500 at 5/1 when they first put the market up and it was snap accepted.  Then i went to oddschecker and clicked the link and it explained why.  Would be interesting if Mr Bloom fancied a bit of early Saturday Morning ev and rocked up with £30k on a new account and see what they did!

[arbboy]

You been smashing the Weetabix this morning, Mark?

Quicker out of the blocks than Holdem Spy today!

It's the diet Marky stopping me sleeping!

[Marky147]

You been smashing the Weetabix this morning, Mark?

Quicker out of the blocks than Holdem Spy today!

Tell him to stop, stop right now! The kitty will be empty by noon @ this rate, Tighty will go nuts when he gets back.

Hasn't Tighty got the 3 magic numbers now?  


Anyway, we can plot up in the Nugget sportsbook to rail this in June!