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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13330998 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #75420 on: April 24, 2014, 12:25:19 PM »

Aston Villa at 5-1, Swansea home at 8/11. A raised eyebrow, probably no more...

Stoke are 11-5 underdogs at home. That struck me as a big price with their form at home, against a Tottenham side who may or may not be interested in the rest of the season, their manager etc etc
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Junior Senior
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« Reply #75421 on: April 24, 2014, 12:36:29 PM »

Aston Villa at 5-1, Swansea home at 8/11. A raised eyebrow, probably no more...

Stoke are 11-5 underdogs at home. That struck me as a big price with their form at home, against a Tottenham side who may or may not be interested in the rest of the season, their manager etc etc

11/5 is big but not huge. We would certainly be getting value
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« Reply #75422 on: April 24, 2014, 12:42:46 PM »

Aston Villa at 5-1, Swansea home at 8/11. A raised eyebrow, probably no more...

Stoke are 11-5 underdogs at home. That struck me as a big price with their form at home, against a Tottenham side who may or may not be interested in the rest of the season, their manager etc etc

I wouldn't be backing spurs atm. Everything I hear is unrest in the squad and bizarre team selections. Aspirations of fourth now hanging by the thinnest of threads. In recent years, we have found a way to win at Stoke (Chris Hoy Foy aside). Short of a couple of Eriksen free kicks, you don't see it this time.

Don't know whether 11/5 is value on stoke. One for the Elders.
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« Reply #75423 on: April 24, 2014, 12:55:28 PM »

Further to Tighty's Darlin' O Dublin bet recommend, I think I've found another way to get with my fellow citizen.
No snooker expert but was surprised to see Ken at evens for Highest Break in Match market when I intuitively made him the better break builder of the 2.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/alan-mcmanus-v-ken-doherty/who-will-make-highest-break

So I looked up their respective stats on cuetracker.net (great site, wish all sports had such easily accessible stats banks).
http://www.cuetracker.net/pages/players.php?ID=73&season=2013/2014
http://www.cuetracker.net/pages/players.php?ID=38&season=2013/2014

And I found Ken over his career has made a century every 24.64 frames, while Angles McTrousers has only made one every 37.22 frames.
Same story in Season 2013-14. Ken one every 25.45 and McT one every 36.82.
Ken 325 career centuries v McT's 176 (both turned pro in 1990 so directly comparable)

Tighty has already made good case for Ken arguably being match fav on form, backed up by a few regs' views. So we're no less worried about his current form than McT's.
My only concern is KenDo seems to be spending the week in the BBC studio instead of on the practise baize, but I'm still happy to recommend:

Highest break in match: Ken Doherty £40 @ evens (3sicks6 / ladbr0k€$).

Thoughts?


On a positive note i have not seen him frequenting the poker tables all evening like his BBC studio colleagues!
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« Reply #75424 on: April 24, 2014, 01:52:41 PM »

Think 11/5 Stoke is too big.  Not so keen on Villa tbh.  All value issues aside I think there are some teams to just avoid at this stage of the season and Villa feel like one of them.  All that said I am a net loser betting on football in April and May lifetime and I don't think it is a coincidence or variance tbh.
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« Reply #75425 on: April 24, 2014, 02:34:36 PM »

Anyone else feel laying Man City at 1.46 is value? I think so and formally suggest a £65 lay, for £30ish liability.

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113424302&exp=e

I just think Palace have played so superbly in the last 5 that there is value here, especially with Man City dropping points to Sunderland recently suggesting some frailty. Not a big fan of 15/2 for the Palace win because I think a draw of some sort would be protected quite valiantly by Palace if he has the luxury of keeping one. Over 2/1 here for two results I think is great personally. Have already suggested this bet, but it wasn't responded to, but there was confusion in that, here the amount and where to get on is clear. Hope you get on as I think it is a good bet. Of course, if Palace go 1 nil down, there has only been one occasion all season in the 1-1 away draw to Swansea where Palace have reclaimed points, so shutting Man City out or scoring first seems crucial, but Palace have had a habit of that recently and I hope it gets maintained.

From my own view on it I think it is a bet up to about 7/4, which is actually what a lot of bookmakers are offering on the double chance markets anyway.
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« Reply #75426 on: April 24, 2014, 02:38:44 PM »

Aston Villa at 5-1, Swansea home at 8/11. A raised eyebrow, probably no more...

Stoke are 11-5 underdogs at home. That struck me as a big price with their form at home, against a Tottenham side who may or may not be interested in the rest of the season, their manager etc etc

I wouldn't be backing spurs atm. Everything I hear is unrest in the squad and bizarre team selections. Aspirations of fourth now hanging by the thinnest of threads. In recent years, we have found a way to win at Stoke (Chris Hoy Foy aside). Short of a couple of Eriksen free kicks, you don't see it this time.

Don't know whether 11/5 is value on stoke. One for the Elders.

Love this, come on Tal tell us where you here this from?
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« Reply #75427 on: April 24, 2014, 03:22:57 PM »

Anyone going to show us some love and tell us what Dubai's World Cup bet is?
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« Reply #75428 on: April 24, 2014, 03:25:11 PM »

Anyone going to show us some love and tell us what Dubai's World Cup bet is?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_Mart%C3%ADnez



e/w top goalscorer world cup £50 e/w 100-1 Betway e/w 1/4 1,2,34

i expected dubai to post the reasoning this morning, i don't know it!
« Last Edit: April 24, 2014, 03:27:09 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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« Reply #75429 on: April 24, 2014, 03:27:17 PM »

Anyone going to show us some love and tell us what Dubai's World Cup bet is?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_Mart%C3%ADnez

e/w top goalscorer world cup £50 e/w 100-1 Betway e/w 1/4 1,2,34

i expected dubai to post the reasoning this morning, i don't know it!

I assume it is because this is Tikay's thread and the guy in the picture that link takes you to has "SUPER BOCK" written on the back of his shirt? Wink
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« Reply #75430 on: April 24, 2014, 03:28:46 PM »

Anyone going to show us some love and tell us what Dubai's World Cup bet is?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackson_Mart%C3%ADnez



e/w top goalscorer world cup £50 e/w 100-1 Betway e/w 1/4 1,2,34

i expected dubai to post the reasoning this morning, i don't know it!

50/1 now Sad
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« Reply #75431 on: April 24, 2014, 03:29:38 PM »

easy race
ty chompy
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« Reply #75432 on: April 24, 2014, 03:31:29 PM »

Joke Choral have Music Master at 7/4 for the 3.10 Warwick tomo.

No idea why, as I wouldn't want to lay odds against.

Recommend £60 win @ 7/4. Glglgl getting on.

Nice one Chompy , thanks
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TightEnd
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« Reply #75433 on: April 24, 2014, 03:32:34 PM »

Anyone else feel laying Man City at 1.46 is value? I think so and formally suggest a £65 lay, for £30ish liability.

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113424302&exp=e

I just think Palace have played so superbly in the last 5 that there is value here, especially with Man City dropping points to Sunderland recently suggesting some frailty. Not a big fan of 15/2 for the Palace win because I think a draw of some sort would be protected quite valiantly by Palace if he has the luxury of keeping one. Over 2/1 here for two results I think is great personally. Have already suggested this bet, but it wasn't responded to, but there was confusion in that, here the amount and where to get on is clear. Hope you get on as I think it is a good bet. Of course, if Palace go 1 nil down, there has only been one occasion all season in the 1-1 away draw to Swansea where Palace have reclaimed points, so shutting Man City out or scoring first seems crucial, but Palace have had a habit of that recently and I hope it gets maintained.

From my own view on it I think it is a bet up to about 7/4, which is actually what a lot of bookmakers are offering on the double chance markets anyway.


Hi Ant

We have nice exposures (indirectly) to Palace winning this game already, 50-1 top half. 100-1 e/w handicap. thanks to you and others. the handicap bet e/w basically comes in if the man city lay does.

should we be taking extra Palace exposure at this stage?



 
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« Reply #75434 on: April 24, 2014, 03:33:05 PM »

The 'low volume high margin legend' that is chompy.  VWP sir
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