Tips for Tikay

[Marky147]

I'd have thought Bayern 6/4 to qualify has to be close to getting the betting shoes on.

No doubt for me they are currently the best team in Europe.

Dem opinions

Easy to manipulate Stats I know but still, Wowza...

Bayern had 72% possession at The Bernabeu , just unheard of.

Twice as many shots, 5x as many corners.

And this was on a huge off day lolz.

The trouble with this bet is RM are 70% likely to score tonight (per bf prices on the BM clean sheet market).  This would mean BM need to score at least 3 goals to advance.  Whilst this is not impossible it does sort of explain how these markets are working independently.  As redarmi has said before 2nd leg games play out in funny ways where in this example once RM have scored they will not be overly worried about actually winning the game in 90 minutes hence their relatively big price to win in 90 minute compared to their 'to qualify' price.  Hope that makes sense.

That's what I said yesterday, albeit without the %  

I am certain that Munich will be unable to stop Madrid from scoring, so Bayern will want 3, and I think that it's going to be hard for Bayern to contain the pace of Madrid going forward, when they need to score more goals themselves.

FWIW I don't think Bayern are as good a side this year, and results would suggest that is the case...

LOL sample size etc. but I'd prefer to go on what we've seen this year, rather than trends or anything else.

[horseplayer]

Appreciate i post a lot of you tube links some crap some ok some good

This is a must watch "new" old footage of Maradona just wow what balance

#Invalid YouTube Link#

[horseplayer]

One advantage Madrid have is they have had to keep going at full pelt or close to for the last few weeks were as Bayern domestically have been on the beach for a month really.

Looks to me they cant quite get back upto the early seasons after playing at 75% for the best part of the calendar year...

[Marky147]

Appreciate i post a lot of you tube links some crap some ok some good

This is a must watch "new" old footage of Maradona just wow what balance

[horseplayer]

Ty Marky

please watch it just wow

[Marky147]

Ty Marky

please watch it just wow

Pretty quick for a willow, wasn't he!

He was already on his way out when I was getting in to football properly, so didn't see that much of him.

That's a great little clip though, and I imagine some of the players today would be out for the season if they got tackled like that!

[arbboy]

I'd have thought Bayern 6/4 to qualify has to be close to getting the betting shoes on.

No doubt for me they are currently the best team in Europe.

Dem opinions

Easy to manipulate Stats I know but still, Wowza...

Bayern had 72% possession at The Bernabeu , just unheard of.

Twice as many shots, 5x as many corners.

And this was on a huge off day lolz.

The trouble with this bet is RM are 70% likely to score tonight (per bf prices on the BM clean sheet market).  This would mean BM need to score at least 3 goals to advance.  Whilst this is not impossible it does sort of explain how these markets are working independently.  As redarmi has said before 2nd leg games play out in funny ways where in this example once RM have scored they will not be overly worried about actually winning the game in 90 minutes hence their relatively big price to win in 90 minute compared to their 'to qualify' price.  Hope that makes sense.

What price would you want Bayern to qualify @ before getting on ?

That 70% likelihood of Real to score seems big to me (not questioning the maths obv), haven't Bayern got an insane record of not conceding goals ? Obv they don't play against teams with the attacking qualities of Real every week though.

The 70% just comes from the correct score market.  ie if you add up all the x-0 scores for BM they will come to 30% therefore RM to score is the balance 100-30 = 70%.  It's pretty unlikely these markets are massively wrong on a game of this size.  If they are they will not be wrong by much.

You have answered your own question by saying they don't play teams like RM every week.  It's good that people on fred are now thinking like this and not just saying 'BM hardly ever concede goals blah blah blah'. 

I have no strong opinion on the game at all.  I only got involved to try and help explain why BM are so short to win in 90mins yet are a big dog to qualify. 

[mondatoo]

I'd have thought Bayern 6/4 to qualify has to be close to getting the betting shoes on.

No doubt for me they are currently the best team in Europe.

Dem opinions

Easy to manipulate Stats I know but still, Wowza...

Bayern had 72% possession at The Bernabeu , just unheard of.

Twice as many shots, 5x as many corners.

And this was on a huge off day lolz.

The trouble with this bet is RM are 70% likely to score tonight (per bf prices on the BM clean sheet market).  This would mean BM need to score at least 3 goals to advance.  Whilst this is not impossible it does sort of explain how these markets are working independently.  As redarmi has said before 2nd leg games play out in funny ways where in this example once RM have scored they will not be overly worried about actually winning the game in 90 minutes hence their relatively big price to win in 90 minute compared to their 'to qualify' price.  Hope that makes sense.

What price would you want Bayern to qualify @ before getting on ?

That 70% likelihood of Real to score seems big to me (not questioning the maths obv), haven't Bayern got an insane record of not conceding goals ? Obv they don't play against teams with the attacking qualities of Real every week though.

The 70% just comes from the correct score market.  ie if you add up all the x-0 scores for BM they will come to 30% therefore RM to score is the balance 100-30 = 70%.  It's pretty unlikely these markets are massively wrong on a game of this size.  If they are they will not be wrong by much.

You have answered your own question by saying they don't play teams like RM every week.  It's good that people on fred are now thinking like this and not just saying 'BM hardly ever concede goals blah blah blah'. 

I have no strong opinion on the game at all.  I only got involved to try and help explain why BM are so short to win in 90mins yet are a big dog to qualify. 

Yeah I'm not questioning the shrewdies on bf, just saying that figure is a surprise to this fish 

[arbboy]

I will be honest and say it surprised me as well although 2nd legs are usually relatively high scoring in general.

[Chompy]

Was that Vincent Tan bet placed?

[arbboy]

Add another player to our NBA finals MVP portfolio. 

Lebron James 21/10 paddy.  Obviously the best player in the world.  Plays for the Heat.  6/4 tight to win the nba.  Lebron is one of only two players who could actually win the finals MVP without his team actually winning but its still unlikely.  If we assume the Heat have to win the nba for him to win we take 3.1/2.5 = 1.24 or 1/4 lebron wins the mvp if the heat are champions.  I would be having a max bet on this if the heat win the nba that lebron would be the mvp at 1/4.  Therefore the 21/10 is worth taking for whatever we can get on up to £50.

[McGlashan]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/man-utd/finishing-position-14-15

There just has to be value in this market.  I just can't have it on my mind Manure finishing 8th or lower next season.  The gap between 7th and 8th is huge.  Not sure where the value is though.

Month to announce new manager is interesting. Van Gaal has said previously through his Bertha-like PR Machine that he wants to have a new job lined up in early May, before he starts his over 50s training camp in Brazil.

Seems unlikely United would rush to a selection in April, when there's nothing to play for but June and July are very difficult, with world cup involving so many of the players, managers and suits, directly or indirectly.

May seems the perfect choice at 3/1. We can assume they have drawn up a shortlist in recent weeks, so this won't be starting from scratch.

this makes perfect sense. after I had recovered from the shock of a Tal post making perfect sense, i placed the bet

22 Apr 2014 - Man Utd Specials - Which month will Man Utd announce the appointment of a new manager
Tip It

May 2014 @ 3/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £
100.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0000935/F

This bet was placed on the basis that if LVG is appointed manager it's very likely to happen before the end of May.

Is there any interest in covering our position by laying him to be Manchester Utd manager come the 1st of August at 1.35 on the exchange? http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.113533832

Given that a different manager could be appointed during May we are more likely to scoop than get scooped.

[TightEnd]

Not liking this but tottenhams next manager Maurice (from Southampton ) ranging from 7/2 to 9/4 I think the 7/2 is good value plays football the spurs way and has a good record first season in epl and no ties to the saints after the chairman left

Tottenham have approached Frank De Boer. Ajax confirmed this this afternoon

[TightEnd]

Following the racist comments from Sterling and all the reactions, Clippers are 6 points favourites against the Warriors tonight.

what bet do the bball boys want, if any?

[arbboy]

Following the racist comments from Sterling and all the reactions, Clippers are 6 points favourites against the Warriors tonight.

what bet do the bball boys want, if any?

Interested in red's view before we steam into anything.