Tips for Tikay

[KarmaDope]

Middlesbrough 1.6 on the exchange to finish in Top 12.

I cant see a 10 goal swing between Mboro and Bolton who are the only other team who could finish 12th (mboro lose, bolton win + 10 goal swing in difference - boro +9 bolton -1)

Surely we could cover off some of the £350 on Watford?

Someone better than me would have to work out how much though.

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27240077

Tighty i posted about this earlier in the week.  Any news on whether he will start/come off the bench/take pens etc?  

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leicester-v-doncaster/anytime-goalscorer

[horseplayer]

My theory on the Kingman lay was the ground and the chance he was taken out

The actual depth of the field i am not at all convinced by

Could not really make a case for any of them infact

[TightEnd]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27240077

Tighty i posted about this earlier in the week.  Any news on whether he will start/come off the bench/take pens etc? 

No facts apart from

- Vardy is injured. Phillips is certain to be in the 18
- Doncaster are in trouble, need a result. Pearson has stated he will select a team to win, fair to all teams down there
- At Huddersfield last week Nugent was on the bench as Wood and Taylor-Fletcher started
- On the one occasion this season where Nugent was not on the pitch and we won a penalty, Phillips was, and took it.

I don't know, that's all I have.

If pressed I would say he starts with Nugent on the bench but its guesswork

[TightEnd]

Middlesbrough 1.6 on the exchange to finish in Top 12.

I cant see a 10 goal swing between Mboro and Bolton who are the only other team who could finish 12th (mboro lose, bolton win + 10 goal swing in difference - boro +9 bolton -1)

Surely we could cover off some of the £350 on Watford?

Someone better than me would have to work out how much though.

This is probably bobby1's call but

We have £350 to win £100

We can have £100 to win £60 on Middlesborough at 1.6

and change -£350/+£100 to -£290/zero which isn't much of a hedge


We could back Middlesborough to win at Yeovil at 11/8 (ripple11 yesterday) but that leaves outcomes unhedged (draws etc) so you could lose-lose

not easy.

It looks to me like shut our eyes and take our punishment

[Doobs]

any update on kingman sir chomps for the 2000?  Plan for the weekend regarding betting the lay back today/day of race/likely sp etc etc. 

ty in advance

Been a fair bit of rain around but Newmarket looks to have missed a lot of it, hence good to firm.

Listen's talking horse could yet start favourite imo and wouldn't be surprised to see Kingman keep drifting.

Obv this is just opinion, though, and trading out now could also be sensible.

Slightly separate issue as this was most definitely a trading position but the more I look at this race the more it feels to me like Kingman should be taken on.  When I watched the race at the time the second favourite played up at the start and 3 or four of them pulled too hard in the early stages whereas Kingman settled well so the others had expended a lot of energy and that tends to mean they are likely to tire quicker.  I feel as though that made Kingman look more impressive than it actually was and its time was nothing special according to the speed ratings guys.  Problem si what to take it on with.  You can be sure that no horse that Aiden O'Brien describes as his best ever (don't they do this twice a year?) can be value and the form in the book and at the end of the day Australia has only win a 4 runner group 3 and Curragh maiden where the second lost at Dundalk in a 5k maiden the other day.  The third and fourth favourites seem massively solid to me.  Both have won multiple group races and a group one race each and Toormore has already proved that it has trained on by winning the best trial for this race in decent fashion.  Anyone else got any thoughts on the race?  Feels like there might be one at a decent price lurking there somewhere?

what are people's thoughts this morning on spotting one to oppose the front 2?

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/2000-guineas/winner

I keep watching various videos trying to find one to beat Kingman, as backing Favs isn't my MO, but as much as Kingman does appear awkward in the first half of races, once he hits his stride he looks amazing.

The more I watch the more I think he will win.

If pushed for an outsider I would go for Outstrip who is bred to appreciate the step to a mile, and has always looked a proper terrier.

I think Kingman wins, just looks so much class.  The greenham looked a good race before hand, and not sure they all ver run bad.  It wasn't just the one race either, he looked class in his last race last season.  I know it wasn't the Dewhurst, but those 2 year old group 1s aren't as strong as they once were.

If we must find one, Outstrip 28/1 e/w can't be so bad.  Godolphin had a good one win (True Story) appear very impressive on reappearance yet rely on this.  It ran well in all its races last year except the War Command one, and I think it took a bump in that.  Can't be too fussy with 28/1 chances.  I have an ante-post voucher if that makes me biassed.

Kingman obvious for the Hills offer, and think we need to reverse a lay some time?

[TightEnd]

Kingman obvious for the Hills offer, and think we need to reverse a lay some time?

there is no thread lay. discussed, suggested but instructed not to proceed after discussions

[Doobs]

Kingman obvious for the Hills offer, and think we need to reverse a lay some time?

there is no thread lay. discussed, suggested but instructed not to proceed after discussions

ah ok, sorry.  Just read there is still a doubt on Kingman, and are walking the course.

[RED-DOG]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £35

Outstanding Bets £3887.02

Free Bets £10 William Hill, £25 Betfred

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

A loss of £35 to begin the month

- Ned Buntline finished 4th at Punchestown with 2nd and 3rd refunded under the PP offer -£25 on a day of outsiders winning



- Delbonnis lost in the second round at the ATP BMW Tennis -£10


Snooker - Robertson trails Selby 5-3 after 1 session of 4, in what will be a very close match

Basketball - The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Memphis Grizzlies 104-84 to tie up their play off series 3-3, a decider still to play

Click to see full-size image.

Baseball - The Orioles beat the Pirates 7-6 in extra innings and the Yankees were beaten 4-2 by Seattle. The Orioles are now a game behind the Yankees in the East, which is encouraging The Royals lost 7-3 to Toronto and begin a big series against Detroit tonight, who lead the AL Central with the Royals in 2nd 


The calm before the storm. Tomorrow is a +/-£600 swing day as the football league ends and up to 20 positions settle

A loss of £35 for the month despite the combined best efforts from the cream of British punting know how? That shows how tough it really is.

CAUTION! Gentle rubs post. Do not bite.

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27240077

Tighty i posted about this earlier in the week.  Any news on whether he will start/come off the bench/take pens etc? 

No facts apart from

- Vardy is injured. Phillips is certain to be in the 18
- Doncaster are in trouble, need a result. Pearson has stated he will select a team to win, fair to all teams down there
- At Huddersfield last week Nugent was on the bench as Wood and Taylor-Fletcher started
- On the one occasion this season where Nugent was not on the pitch and we won a penalty, Phillips was, and took it.

I don't know, that's all I have.

If pressed I would say he starts with Nugent on the bench but its guesswork

ok cheers.  Phillips must be a very short price to take a pen tomorrow if he is on the pitch at the time?

[Doobs]

Bookrunner and Charm Spirit seem huge prices on French Challengers on Betfair.  The horses can't be terrible making that journey.  Have backed both just now for small stakes.  Don't know what to make of the Spanish Frankel.  Has a form line with Charm Spirit, which suggests he is better, but Spanish horses is a bit of a step too far for me.  Price wise put him up apparently  

[horseplayer]

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-cashbacksecond-2000guineas030514/?rfr=798967&mpch=ads

Money back as a free bet £25 max if second to the sp fav with bfair sportsbook for those who can/want to

[Doobs]

https://promotions.betfair.com/sbk-cashbacksecond-2000guineas030514/?rfr=798967&mpch=ads

Money back as a free bet £25 max if second to the sp fav with bfair sportsbook for those who can/want to

It doesn't look that great to me, as they have butchered the prices of the shorter horses, and finishing 2nd to the favourite is a significantly tougher ask than just 2nd.  Best odds guarantee will save you to some extent, but I really wouldn't bother. 

[horseplayer]

when will the nfl draft be settled?

cheers

[TightEnd]

when will the nfl draft be settled?

cheers

1st round is next Thursday night

Clowney now 8/13 best 1st player

Donald was 2/9 top DT before the player/position markets were pulled....