Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

Must be quite a bit of money for Raonic - into 1/3 now.

[simonnatur]

Talking of The Eclipse, what do the horse experts make of Trading Leather at 25-1 with Ladbrokes? seems a huge price to me - if nothing else then as a potential trade

[Doobs]

Talking of The Eclipse, what do the horse experts make of Trading Leather at 25-1 with Ladbrokes? seems a huge price to me - if nothing else then as a potential trade

The horse doesn't seem good enough.  I have backed it a couple of times, and it has mostly been disappointing recently.  At least you can still see something like True Story or Kingston Hill potentially improving and winning this, I just think Trading Leather is always going to find a few too good.  Maybe he could be value each way, but I wouldn't be rushing.  

[simonnatur]

Talking of The Eclipse, what do the horse experts make of Trading Leather at 25-1 with Ladbrokes? seems a huge price to me - if nothing else then as a potential trade

The horse doesn't seem good enough.  I have backed it a couple of times, and it has mostly been disappointing recently.  At least you can still see something like True Story or Kingston Hill potentially improving and winning this, I just think Trading Leather is always going to find a few too good.  Maybe he could be value each way, but I wouldn't be rushing.  

The price just feels wrong to me... When Ladbrokes are standout like this they are rarely proved correct. I think I have a decent shot at laying this back at 16 - 18 /1 closer to the off for a free roll, but not sure I'd want to. I take your point, probably not good enough but rather be a backer than a layer at 25-1. (Sorry to clutter up Fred with this, but since racing thread died a death.... .)

[tikay]

Talking of The Eclipse, what do the horse experts make of Trading Leather at 25-1 with Ladbrokes? seems a huge price to me - if nothing else then as a potential trade

The horse doesn't seem good enough.  I have backed it a couple of times, and it has mostly been disappointing recently.  At least you can still see something like True Story or Kingston Hill potentially improving and winning this, I just think Trading Leather is always going to find a few too good.  Maybe he could be value each way, but I wouldn't be rushing.  

The price just feels wrong to me... When Ladbrokes are standout like this they are rarely proved correct. I think I have a decent shot at laying this back at 16 - 18 /1 closer to the off for a free roll, but not sure I'd want to. I take your point, probably not good enough but rather be a backer than a layer at 25-1. (Sorry to clutter up Fred with this, but since racing thread died a death.... .)

Morning.

Not "cluttering up Fred" at all, clutter away to your heart's content, either on the Racing Thread, or Fred.

[tikay]

As you know, I'm anything but a fan of betting on SPOTY, it has no interest to me whatsoever.

However, with Andy Murrray & Steven Gerrard, both touted up on here earlier this year, now safely out of the way I would think, the market is very open indeed.

MardyBum is currently favourite @ 2/1, but he's not even favourite to win the F1 title, & with good reason. 

 http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

So there must be some serious value there somewhere.

Are there any darts we ought to consider whilst the market is so open?

[Tal]

As you know, I'm anything but a fan of betting on SPOTY, it has no interest to me whatsoever.

However, with Andy Murrray & Steven Gerrard, both touted up on here earlier this year, now safely out of the way I would think, the market is very open indeed.

MardyBum is currently favourite @ 2/1, but he's not even favourite to win the F1 title, & with good reason. 

 http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

So there must be some serious value there somewhere.

Are there any darts we ought to consider whilst the market is so open?

We've discussed the possibility of someone stealing hearts in the commonwealth games, but I can't help feeling it's place money, rather than winner.

The more I look at it, the more I like Johnny Wilkinson. This show is a public vote and, as much as I realise there's a BBC bias in the show itself, press influence in the lead up got Ryan Giggs the award, when domestic football hasn't been on the BBC since Major Frank Buckley's day. The press are going to be encouraging people to vote for someone...

He might get some form of "Thanks for being a good sport all these years" special award, but, if not, can he really be out the top three?

[tikay]

As you know, I'm anything but a fan of betting on SPOTY, it has no interest to me whatsoever.

However, with Andy Murrray & Steven Gerrard, both touted up on here earlier this year, now safely out of the way I would think, the market is very open indeed.

MardyBum is currently favourite @ 2/1, but he's not even favourite to win the F1 title, & with good reason. 

 http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

So there must be some serious value there somewhere.

Are there any darts we ought to consider whilst the market is so open?

We've discussed the possibility of someone stealing hearts in the commonwealth games, but I can't help feeling it's place money, rather than winner.

The more I look at it, the more I like Johnny Wilkinson. This show is a public vote and, as much as I realise there's a BBC bias in the show itself, press influence in the lead up got Ryan Giggs the award, when domestic football hasn't been on the BBC since Major Frank Buckley's day. The press are going to be encouraging people to vote for someone...

He might get some form of "Thanks for being a good sport all these years" special award, but, if not, can he really be out the top three?

In what looks (at present) one of the easier years to win this, I must say Wilko's name caught my eye, too, his record has been outstanding during his career.

How do you know of Major Buckley? As a teenager, I had very high regard for Major Buckley, who was very much ahead of his time as a Manager, especially @ Wolves.

His Wiki is quite a memory-stirrer for football historians, well worth a 2 minute peruse, if only to put today's mind-numbing £umbers into context.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Buckley_(footballer)

[simonnatur]

Does Ronnie O'Sullivan have a better chance than most of the 100-1 shots ?

[DungBeetle]

Guess Selby is better option at same price.  Jokey personality, and finally won the world champs after several near misses?

[tikay]

I'm really struggling to see a snookerist in the top 3.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £115

Outstanding Bets £2449.20

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=27

No bets completed yesterday

On a day which hinted at the beginnings of a chaging of the guard in the top echelons of the ATP Tennis rankings Federer (thread e/w at 6-1) made it through to his ninth Wimbledon semi-final. He's won the previous 8. It's his 35th Grand Slam semi

Click to see full-size image.

 He beat the slightly flaky Wawrinka and now plays Raonic, the big serving monster who beat Krygios in a game that saw Raonic serve 39 aces. Lets hope Roger has his returning boots on

As Djokovic said after beating Cilic

"If you are 6ft10 on grass, you can serve aces with a tomato"

Djokovic now odds-on to regain the title, and Federer 11/4 second favourite. I think one of Dimitrov and Raonic will final though and they are 15/2 and 9/1 respectively

Click to see full-size image.

In T20 Cricket Yorkshire failed to chase 125 to beat Durham. they remain top 4 in the North group but lost a chance at a pop at a top two spot and a home quarter final.

In baseball the royals beat the twins 4-0. in the east the orioles won 6-4 against the Rangers and the yankees lost 6-3 to the rays. all this mean that if you look at the standings we have a second half of the season sweat on all three teams

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/?tcid=mm_mlb_standings

In particular the Orioles and the Blue Jays have pulled clear at the top of the AL East. These were the two outsiders in the betting at ther start of the season and we have



AL East Winner   baltimore orioles   9/1   25
AL East Winner   baltimore orioles   12/1   25


Building up to one of the finest sporting weekends for a long long time

four world cup quarter finals

Click to see full-size image.

the start of the tour de France in England



the British Grand Prix

Click to see full-size image.

final weekend of Wimbledon

Click to see full-size image.

[hector62]

Welcome home Mr T.

It seemed like a fun trip to Vegas and I loved your reportage. Shame a bink never happened but with your new aggressive tactics that was always more likely.

I think there is some value in the Wimbledon outright market. I backed Dimitrov at the beginning, but my concern was his draw. Having a route  of Murray, Djokovic, Nadal would be very tough. However Nadal lost, and the manner of yesterdays win makes things a whole lot easier. Djokovic had problems with Cilic and Dimitrov is far better than him. If Dimitrov beats Djokovic I would make him favourite for the final, but I expect I am alone with that.

I think the bookies must have big liabilities on Djokovic, which may be why we can get 7-1 for Dimitrov.

Suggest £20 Dimitrov @ 7-1 with Betfred, Paddy, Ladbrokes.

By the way I am in agreement with Wilkinson as a SPOTY bet, but I still think Mardybum will win the F1 and if he does then will win SPOTY too.

[arbboy]

I would rather back spoty being cancelled this year at 100/1 than back a snooker player to win it!

[Doobs]

Jonny Wilkinson hasn't played for England for years or in England for years.  The sport isn't as high profile as football either.  It really seems a bad year, but 3rd favourite seems really strange to me.  I was thinking he must be a really big price before I looked.  Can't really see that lot who fill Twickenham with 4x4s bothering to vote either.   Seems a lot of odd things need to happen in order for us to double our money on a 3rd.