Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that

Echo this.  Especially as I had written Jimmy Graham receiving yards down as a loser......last I saw he had 17 yards with not long to go.

He had over 65 yarda after three quarters, and got the final yards on the final drive of normal time

He was double covered all game. In part this was what made Brandin Cooks a menace, single covered on deep routes, he made hay


On a general theme, post week one is National jumping to conclusions day but I would be on Dallas, Saints, Jags etc next week. Decent stats, costly mistakes and if they are ironed out they (not the saints, but the other two) will be contrarian picks from here

Agree especially on Dallas and I tweeted as much yesterday.  Would also look to be against 49ers.  Their offense didnt do much given the D they were up against and all of the rumours of disharmony will have been masked somewhat by this result but actually they were pretty lucky.

No idea what I was looking at with Graham then......anyway a nice way to start the week!!!

[Waz1892]

Interesting fact i heard this morning -

Ibrahamivic scored for Sweden in the 24th minute in his 99th cap hitting his 50th goal.

Why was this significant for his whole career?

scored in every minute of a game

43 secs. Must try harder Richard!

[T_Mar]

Hi Guys, Maths quesxtion if you dont mind, probably been explained earlier in the thread so apologies if thats the case

If a selection is 2.5 on BF to come top 5 in a specific event (eg golf) and you want to work out the price for same selection to come top 3 in same event, is it as simple as doing the following

2.5 / 5 = 0.5
2.5 + 0.5 = 3
3 / 4 = 0.75
3 + 0.75 = 3.75

Thanks in advance

You can sometimes go 5/3 x2.5 and get 4.17, which is just over 3/1.

This isn't one of those occasions as you have a leader who is well clear and 4/5 or similar on Betfair.  He takes up more than enough of the first place market to make the calculation really bad.  Barring Horshel everybody else is more likely to be 4th or 5th than 1st, so the simple maths falls apart.

Cheers,  I was more intetrested in the calculation rather than anything else... I can see why the maths is skewed in your example though so thanks explaining that.

What do you think of the following as bets in the Euro Golf both with VC 3 who are 1/4 odds first

Richie Ramsay @ 16/1
David Lipsky @ 16/1

It's effectively a 12 runnner race (discounting anyone -9 or worse) and 4 of those at -10 which makes them big outsiders obviously.  So not a stretch to call this 8 runner race, with 3 books paying 1/4 odds, seems decent.  The Leader is -16 but is ranked 500+ in the world, does have a tour win to his name but that qas 7 years ago.  -15 seems a more realistic leading score as it stands.  They all have their chances obviously but the 2 I'm suggesting are 6/4 for top 5 so as above come out at ~3/1 for top 3.  Win prices are equal or slightly worse on BF.  Ramsay in particular looks a good bet with his previous win at the course, and has shown he can go low with his -8 on day1.  Dont know too much about Lipski, he's yet to win, but has been playing well based on his results and is consistent so no reason he cant hit the frame as is only a couple off the lead

That betfair place market is too weak to read anything from it.  You ideal want quite a lot of money matched and a small gap between buy and sell.  You could just go 17/3 to get roughly the correct place odds for 3 places. It isn't perfect but is better than relying on that place market.  Lipsky is a straight arb at 16/1 win only vs Betfair.

I can't help you much more.

Lipsky wins!

[horseplayer]

Social Exclusive
08-09-2014 19:45
Enhanced Multiple
Both Teams To Score (from 11/10) @ 11/8

With the goat

£25 max but well worth doing betfair price is around evens, no view on bet but if you can worthwhile

[Teacake]

Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that

Yes, it's very good however an update on the Indy Ref position would have been nice, I mean it's not as if anything significant happened over the weekend.

[Ironside]

Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that

Yes, it's very good however an update on the Indy Ref position would have been nice, I mean it's not as if anything significant happened over the weekend.

has fred got a bet on it?

[Teacake]

Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that

Yes, it's very good however an update on the Indy Ref position would have been nice, I mean it's not as if anything significant happened over the weekend.

has fred got a bet on it?

Yes, you've pretty much made my point there.

[RickBFA]

Been talking to a good friend of mine who played pro football and recently played at conference level.

He knows that league well and likes Alfreton at home tomorrow night against Altrincham.

I know Alfreton is not the easiest place to go, especially in a mid week game and he says from experience Alfreton are always up for it against other part time teams.

The Altrincham lads are likely to have been working, then got a nasty trip across the Woodhead then down the M1, hardly ideal preparation especially when they are not getting results.

Alfreton have started very poorly but have signed 2 new centre forwards including Karl Hawley who will be a real threat at this level. They had 48% possession away at Barnet on Saturday, ended losing the game 2-1 but lead for a lot of the game and had a player sent off.

I've backed Alfreton at 7/4 and recommend £20 at that price.

[JoeBeevers]

Been talking to a good friend of mine who played pro football and recently played at conference level.

He knows that league well and likes Alfreton at home tomorrow night against Altrincham.

I know Alfreton is not the easiest place to go, especially in a mid week game and he says from experience Alfreton are always up for it against other part time teams.

The Altrincham lads are likely to have been working, then got a nasty trip across the Woodhead then down the M1, hardly ideal preparation especially when they are not getting results.

Alfreton have started very poorly but have signed 2 new centre forwards including Karl Hawley who will be a real threat at this level. They had 48% possession away at Barnet on Saturday, ended losing the game 2-1 but lead for a lot of the game and had a player sent off.

I've backed Alfreton at 7/4 and recommend £20 at that price.

We have Alan Alger doing non league football for us on Bettingemporium and he put this up early at 9/5. It's his biggest bet of the season so far for us. Maybe make it £40 for Fred although best price now 33/20. You can read Alan's write up for free here http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/54

[RickBFA]

Been talking to a good friend of mine who played pro football and recently played at conference level.

He knows that league well and likes Alfreton at home tomorrow night against Altrincham.

I know Alfreton is not the easiest place to go, especially in a mid week game and he says from experience Alfreton are always up for it against other part time teams.

The Altrincham lads are likely to have been working, then got a nasty trip across the Woodhead then down the M1, hardly ideal preparation especially when they are not getting results.

Alfreton have started very poorly but have signed 2 new centre forwards including Karl Hawley who will be a real threat at this level. They had 48% possession away at Barnet on Saturday, ended losing the game 2-1 but lead for a lot of the game and had a player sent off.

I've backed Alfreton at 7/4 and recommend £20 at that price.

We have Alan Alger doing non league football for us on Bettingemporium and he put this up early at 9/5. It's his biggest bet of the season so far for us. Maybe make it £40 for Fred although best price now 33/20. You can read Alan's write up for free here http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/54

I haven't seen that, good to know he likes it, thanks.

[arbboy]

i have just put up 2.84 for a decent 3 figure amount on bf and got instantly matched so someone is very keen to lay it.  Suggest using bf rather than fixed odds.  Best FO price on oddschecker currently is 2.65.

TY for posting Rick and Joe.

[Tal]

Cormetto question: if someone is prepared to lay a decent, three figure amount at 2.83 on a non-league game, should that be a concern?

[arbboy]

i will take Rick, Joe and Alan's side of this one but yes in general i would normally be slightly worried how quickly that got matched given the wholesale gamble on it across oddschecker.

[Ironside]

Stunning report Richard

Reporting don't get any better than that

Yes, it's very good however an update on the Indy Ref position would have been nice, I mean it's not as if anything significant happened over the weekend.

has fred got a bet on it?

Yes, you've pretty much made my point there.

I just asked a question I didn't know if fred put a bet on or not

if fred has a bet on I am sure tighty will put out updates on it unless we are now claiming tighty is biased

but Monday mornings are full of all the weekend sport I am sure he will fit it in on a less busy day

[samurai]

Yes is 3.1 to back in the scottish independence betting. Tonight's poll is rumoured to be extremely favourable. Can see this ending up as a flip. Loathe to recommend it as a fred bet as I can't see it as value. But should be able to lay it shorter later if the rumours are accurate.