Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £6.37

Outstanding Bets £4242.37

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A profit of £137 yesterday

- Frampton beat Martinez on points in the IBF World Super-bantamweight fight for a profit of £87



- Peterborough beat Port Vale 3-1, Both teams to score profit of £50, an 83rd minute consolation goal for the Potteries' finest sealing the deal

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing positions

Italian Grand Prix:

Hamilton on pole ahead of Rosberg, and comfortably so



Button qualified in the top six, the top three rows of the grid locked out by Mercedes powered cars

Alonso up to three quarters of a second slower than the Williams in qualifying

Kyvat starts 8 places behind Vergne after qualifying marginally ahead of his team mate before his grid penalty

Click to see full-size image.

Furyk is T7th after a 67 yesterday at the BMW golf, 8 shots behind the leader by three, the recommendation of  mr "I know nothing about golf", Horschel who went round in 63, every birdie a dagger to the heart having not got on

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At the FIBA World Basketball, the USA advance the the Quarter-finals, 86-63 victors over Mexico. Our man James Harden here in action

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Lithuania play against New Zealand today

A truncated report, thankfully, for football with the top divisions not playing

Peterborough's win kept them top of League One. Washington did not score, Vassell (125-1 e/w off thread) did off the bench, his sixth goal of the season already

Dover won 4-1 away at AFC Telford, to rise to 16th in the table. A poor result for the relegation bet

Guernsey beat  2-1 with an injury time penalty against Walton and Hersham

Click to see full-size image.

 

from Star man Ross Allen

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In baseball the Rays beat the Orioles 3-2 with a ninth innings walk off and the Yankees beat the Royals 6-2 to close the Orioles lead to 8.5 games

The Tigers lose in the AL Central, keeping the Royals lead at 2 games

Two big shocks at Flushing Meadow

Kei "sicknote" Nishikori became the first Asian man to reach a Grand Slam final defeating Djokovic and Cilic beat Federer in straight sets

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Frustration at Haydock. Having been baulked following through Sole Power at York running a terrific race, G Force went into many a good judge's notebook, and tikay's, for yesterday. It won at 11-1 yesterday and we weren't on, and we probably should have been. I kicked myself

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[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

The rugby season has started and so far all the favourites have won. Today Exeter travel to newly promoted London Welsh, who play at Oxford. When they were last in the Premiership the Welsh won 6 games including this corresponding fixture and Fred was on them. Since the end of last season the Welsh have signed 25 new players, including Piiri Weepu the ex all Black. If they are to stand a chance of staying up then this is a game that they should target as a potential victory. Exeter have big injury problems and are missing their captain as well as their 2 England players.


I expect a close game with few points and at 5/2 we have to side with the Welsh.

Suggest £20 Welsh @ 5/2 with sporting bet but anything over 2-1 is good.

might take a while to gel unfortunately, the Gloucester effect from the other night

anyway,

        Bet Type: Single
            London Welsh v Exeter Chiefs Match Prices
                London Welsh 5/2
        Possible Payout 70.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    20.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 20.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 70.00 GBP

[Doobs]

Hi Guys, Maths quesxtion if you dont mind, probably been explained earlier in the thread so apologies if thats the case

If a selection is 2.5 on BF to come top 5 in a specific event (eg golf) and you want to work out the price for same selection to come top 3 in same event, is it as simple as doing the following

2.5 / 5 = 0.5
2.5 + 0.5 = 3
3 / 4 = 0.75
3 + 0.75 = 3.75

Thanks in advance

You can sometimes go 5/3 x2.5 and get 4.17, which is just over 3/1.

This isn't one of those occasions as you have a leader who is well clear and 4/5 or similar on Betfair.  He takes up more than enough of the first place market to make the calculation really bad.  Barring Horshel everybody else is more likely to be 4th or 5th than 1st, so the simple maths falls apart.

[Waz1892]

Thoughts on Gibraltar vs Poland.

33/1 Gibraltar. Poland 1/12.  However (only checked whillz) 5/2 for Ledowoski to score 2 or more and Poland to win seems very big!

Thoughts to a recommendation of £20?

Gibraltar lost 4-1 to the faroe isles in March, they beat Malta last time out 1-0.

This will be their first ever competitive game.

so any thoughts on this at the 3/1 you can get.  I really like it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/gibraltar-v-poland/to-score-2-or-more-goals

[RickBFA]

3/1 looks value when other are 6/4. I'm on. Thanks.

[TightEnd]

NFL Player Props for tonight

1. Frank Gore over 80 rushing yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-rushing-yds-frank-gore

should go north of 100 against a Cowboys DL lacking talent and lacking run stuffers

over 9 years Gore consistently goes at 4 yards a carry, and around 20-25 carries a game. the current quotes make no allowance for the match up, which is hugely favourable

http://www.nfl.com/player/frankgore/2506404/careerstats


2 Jimmy Graham over 73 receiving yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-orleans-saints-at-atlanta-falcons/total-receiving-yds-jimmy-graham

Graham is the player the Saints receiving offense revolves around, and they have developed new wrinkles for him this off-season

The Atlanta defense is slow, Graham is a match-up nightmare for them

six 100 yard plus games last year, only fit for 12 games.

http://www.nfl.com/player/jimmygraham/497236/careerstats

[Peter-27]

A couple more pre-race bets:

Paddy Power or Bet 365
Group C (BUT/MAG/PER/HUL): Jenson Button @ 11/8 - McLaren have the edge on Force India here so this bet is just matter of beating Magnussen. Kevin does start higher on the grid (5th over 6th), but over a race distance the experience of Jenson should come through. Considering how close they are on the grid, 11/8 is too high in my opinion. Recommend £10.

Bet Victor
Group D (BIA/KOB/CHI/ERI): Jules Bianchi @ 11/10 - Bianchi EASILY has the edge over the others in this group, despite a monumental lap from Kobayashi yesterday in qualifying. If Bianchi has a normal race with no incidents, he will top this group. Above evens is worth the bet - just. Suggest £10.

[TightEnd]

Thoughts on Gibraltar vs Poland.

33/1 Gibraltar. Poland 1/12.  However (only checked whillz) 5/2 for Ledowoski to score 2 or more and Poland to win seems very big!

Thoughts to a recommendation of £20?

Gibraltar lost 4-1 to the faroe isles in March, they beat Malta last time out 1-0.

This will be their first ever competitive game.

so any thoughts on this at the 3/1 you can get.  I really like it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/gibraltar-v-poland/to-score-2-or-more-goals

Robert Lewandowski
To Score 2 Goals or more

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000094


Lewandoski has 3 2 or more goal games in 61 internationals

Singapore, Ivory Coast and San Marino

19 goals in total, four of those are against San Marino, Andorra


I think 2/1 first goalscorer is a better bet, higher percentages of scooping that, but there you go anyway, good luck

[tikay]

NFL Player Props for tonight

1. Frank Gore over 80 rushing yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-rushing-yds-frank-gore

should go north of 100 against a Cowboys DL lacking talent and lacking run stuffers

over 9 years Gore consistently goes at 4 yards a carry, and around 20-25 carries a game. the current quotes make no allowance for the match up, which is hugely favourable

http://www.nfl.com/player/frankgore/2506404/careerstats


2 Jimmy Graham over 73 receiving yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-orleans-saints-at-atlanta-falcons/total-receiving-yds-jimmy-graham

Graham is the player the Saints receiving offense revolves around, and they have developed new wrinkles for him this off-season

The Atlanta defense is slow, Graham is a match-up nightmare for them

six 100 yard plus games last year, only fit for 12 games.

http://www.nfl.com/player/jimmygraham/497236/careerstats

Can you do those please Rich?

[TightEnd]

A couple more pre-race bets:

Paddy Power or Bet 365
Group C (BUT/MAG/PER/HUL): Jenson Button @ 11/8 - McLaren have the edge on Force India here so this bet is just matter of beating Magnussen. Kevin does start higher on the grid (5th over 6th), but over a race distance the experience of Jenson should come through. Considering how close they are on the grid, 11/8 is too high in my opinion. Recommend £10.

Bet Victor
Group D (BIA/KOB/CHI/ERI): Jules Bianchi @ 11/10 - Bianchi EASILY has the edge over the others in this group, despite a monumental lap from Kobayashi yesterday in qualifying. If Bianchi has a normal race with no incidents, he will top this group. Above evens is worth the bet - just. Suggest £10.

Paddy Power is a no go

6/5 at Bet365 in size.

£2.58. leaving it at the lower price

next....

betvictor

Race Markets Jules Bianchi (Group D - Race) Odds: 11/10 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  21.00 

[Waz1892]

Thoughts on Gibraltar vs Poland.

33/1 Gibraltar. Poland 1/12.  However (only checked whillz) 5/2 for Ledowoski to score 2 or more and Poland to win seems very big!

Thoughts to a recommendation of £20?

Gibraltar lost 4-1 to the faroe isles in March, they beat Malta last time out 1-0.

This will be their first ever competitive game.

so any thoughts on this at the 3/1 you can get.  I really like it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/gibraltar-v-poland/to-score-2-or-more-goals

Robert Lewandowski
To Score 2 Goals or more

Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000094


Lewandoski has 3 2 or more goal games in 61 internationals

Singapore, Ivory Coast and San Marino

19 goals in total, four of those are against San Marino, Andorra


I think 2/1 first goalscorer is a better bet, higher percentages of scooping that, but there you go anyway, good luck

Live on SS5 (res button) for those that can

[T_Mar]

Hi Guys, Maths quesxtion if you dont mind, probably been explained earlier in the thread so apologies if thats the case

If a selection is 2.5 on BF to come top 5 in a specific event (eg golf) and you want to work out the price for same selection to come top 3 in same event, is it as simple as doing the following

2.5 / 5 = 0.5
2.5 + 0.5 = 3
3 / 4 = 0.75
3 + 0.75 = 3.75

Thanks in advance

You can sometimes go 5/3 x2.5 and get 4.17, which is just over 3/1.

This isn't one of those occasions as you have a leader who is well clear and 4/5 or similar on Betfair.  He takes up more than enough of the first place market to make the calculation really bad.  Barring Horshel everybody else is more likely to be 4th or 5th than 1st, so the simple maths falls apart.

Cheers,  I was more intetrested in the calculation rather than anything else... I can see why the maths is skewed in your example though so thanks explaining that.

What do you think of the following as bets in the Euro Golf both with VC 3 who are 1/4 odds first

Richie Ramsay @ 16/1
David Lipsky @ 16/1

It's effectively a 12 runnner race (discounting anyone -9 or worse) and 4 of those at -10 which makes them big outsiders obviously.  So not a stretch to call this 8 runner race, with 3 books paying 1/4 odds, seems decent.  The Leader is -16 but is ranked 500+ in the world, does have a tour win to his name but that qas 7 years ago.  -15 seems a more realistic leading score as it stands.  They all have their chances obviously but the 2 I'm suggesting are 6/4 for top 5 so as above come out at ~3/1 for top 3.  Win prices are equal or slightly worse on BF.  Ramsay in particular looks a good bet with his previous win at the course, and has shown he can go low with his -8 on day1.  Dont know too much about Lipski, he's yet to win, but has been playing well based on his results and is consistent so no reason he cant hit the frame as is only a couple off the lead

[TightEnd]

NFL Player Props for tonight

1. Frank Gore over 80 rushing yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/san-francisco-49ers-at-dallas-cowboys/total-rushing-yds-frank-gore

should go north of 100 against a Cowboys DL lacking talent and lacking run stuffers

over 9 years Gore consistently goes at 4 yards a carry, and around 20-25 carries a game. the current quotes make no allowance for the match up, which is hugely favourable

http://www.nfl.com/player/frankgore/2506404/careerstats


2 Jimmy Graham over 73 receiving yards

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-orleans-saints-at-atlanta-falcons/total-receiving-yds-jimmy-graham

Graham is the player the Saints receiving offense revolves around, and they have developed new wrinkles for him this off-season

The Atlanta defense is slow, Graham is a match-up nightmare for them

six 100 yard plus games last year, only fit for 12 games.

http://www.nfl.com/player/jimmygraham/497236/careerstats

Can you do those please Rich?

    
Good Luck Tony!
Event Information:    San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-07 21:25:00
Market:    Rushing Yards - F Gore
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +75.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000731
Placed at:    10:33 07/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £25.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £25.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £25.00
   
   
   £47.73

Event Information:    New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-09-07 18:00:00
Market:    Receiving Yards - J Graham
Selection:    Over @ 10/11
Handicap:    +73.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000732
Placed at:    10:35 07/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £25.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £25.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £25.00
   
   
   £47.73
   

[TightEnd]

Ahead of the Switzerland England game tomorrow which is a key game

Isn't 5/2 Switzerland to top the group excellent value?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/euro-2016-group-e/winner

two horse group, top two qualify for Euro 2016.

Switzerland it could be argued are better than England. France game aside they showed that at the World Cup, albeit in an easier group...qualified for the world cup unbeaten

England rebuilding again, missing Sturridge at the start etc etc, tetchy manager sounding under pressure, no signs of form now for six months...

 

 

[Doobs]

Hi Guys, Maths quesxtion if you dont mind, probably been explained earlier in the thread so apologies if thats the case

If a selection is 2.5 on BF to come top 5 in a specific event (eg golf) and you want to work out the price for same selection to come top 3 in same event, is it as simple as doing the following

2.5 / 5 = 0.5
2.5 + 0.5 = 3
3 / 4 = 0.75
3 + 0.75 = 3.75

Thanks in advance

You can sometimes go 5/3 x2.5 and get 4.17, which is just over 3/1.

This isn't one of those occasions as you have a leader who is well clear and 4/5 or similar on Betfair.  He takes up more than enough of the first place market to make the calculation really bad.  Barring Horshel everybody else is more likely to be 4th or 5th than 1st, so the simple maths falls apart.

Cheers,  I was more intetrested in the calculation rather than anything else... I can see why the maths is skewed in your example though so thanks explaining that.

What do you think of the following as bets in the Euro Golf both with VC 3 who are 1/4 odds first

Richie Ramsay @ 16/1
David Lipsky @ 16/1

It's effectively a 12 runnner race (discounting anyone -9 or worse) and 4 of those at -10 which makes them big outsiders obviously.  So not a stretch to call this 8 runner race, with 3 books paying 1/4 odds, seems decent.  The Leader is -16 but is ranked 500+ in the world, does have a tour win to his name but that qas 7 years ago.  -15 seems a more realistic leading score as it stands.  They all have their chances obviously but the 2 I'm suggesting are 6/4 for top 5 so as above come out at ~3/1 for top 3.  Win prices are equal or slightly worse on BF.  Ramsay in particular looks a good bet with his previous win at the course, and has shown he can go low with his -8 on day1.  Dont know too much about Lipski, he's yet to win, but has been playing well based on his results and is consistent so no reason he cant hit the frame as is only a couple off the lead

That betfair place market is too weak to read anything from it.  You ideal want quite a lot of money matched and a small gap between buy and sell.  You could just go 17/3 to get roughly the correct place odds for 3 places. It isn't perfect but is better than relying on that place market.  Lipsky is a straight arb at 16/1 win only vs Betfair.

I can't help you much more.