Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

Been talking to a good friend of mine who played pro football and recently played at conference level.

He knows that league well and likes Alfreton at home tomorrow night against Altrincham.

I know Alfreton is not the easiest place to go, especially in a mid week game and he says from experience Alfreton are always up for it against other part time teams.

The Altrincham lads are likely to have been working, then got a nasty trip across the Woodhead then down the M1, hardly ideal preparation especially when they are not getting results.

Alfreton have started very poorly but have signed 2 new centre forwards including Karl Hawley who will be a real threat at this level. They had 48% possession away at Barnet on Saturday, ended losing the game 2-1 but lead for a lot of the game and had a player sent off.

I've backed Alfreton at 7/4 and recommend £20 at that price.

Hi Rick, understand if not but could you tell us the name of your source please?

He's not keen for me to put his name on here.

He played for a few lower league clubs before joining a conference club in the north west for a couple of years.

He retired recently because of a back injury.

Keep posting rick this sort of local knowledge is what TFT is all about.  No one needs to know who the source is. I wouldn't be too happy if someone named me on a thread after getting info from me. We understand why you don't have to justify keeping his name private

Totally agree with this, out of interest Womble, why do u want to know?

Was just curious as I follow lower league and non-league. Totally agree with the above and understand why Rick doesn't want to say. Hope you keep posting the snippets though Rick!

[Waz1892]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/blackpool-v-wolves/winner

Blackpool vs Wolves. Saturday 13th.

Wolves at 5/6.  With the news recently broken that the Burton manager has been discussing and subsequently rejected the role of manager, even the Riga is still in the role, the club goes from low to very lowe depths this week.

Morale and the atmosphere must be shot.  At 5/6 is this value for Wolves, given that maybe over the next few days Riga/Oyston could fall out even more before the weekend.

Blackpool 0-0-5. Wolves 4-0-1

Thoughts, I would suggest £30.

[DungBeetle]

What odds would you make Wolves if they were at home?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £112.51

Outstanding Bets £4570.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29

A loss of £30 yesterday. Alfreton pegged back in the last few minutes to draw at home to Altrincham

ongoing positions

in the FIBA Baskbetball World Cup our bet Lithuania advance to the semi finals with a 73-61 win over Turkey, and they will play the USA (119-76 winners over Slovenia)

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A couple of interested observers during the USA win..

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our bets on the event are as follows

2014 Fiba World Championship   USA   7/10   50
2014 Fiba World Championship   Lithuania   40/1   10
Outright Without USA & Spain   Lithuania   11/2   25
Top Real Madrid Scorer   Nocioni    15/8   25
MVP   Harden   5/1   20

So, for Lithuania, win the third place match to win the without USA/Spain bet

In the MLB the Baltimore Orioles are going from strength to strength. Last night they beat the Red Sox again, 4-1

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The Yankees lost 4-3 to the Rays and need to win 15 of their last 20 to prevent us winning the season unders bet

So, in the AL East  The O's maintained a commanding 10-game lead over the Blue Jays and are 11 games in front of the third-place Yankees. There are 18 games left of the regular season. Nine wins and they are uncatchable, in reality the figure will be less

The AL Central story is somewhat different as the Tigers beat the Royals again and now are tied at the top of the division. Momentum is swinging behind the big club and we're on the wrong side of it. The article at http://atmlb.com/1BqUbNT  gives the detail

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Tonight's third game of the series sees the best pitching match-up of the series for the Royals. It's not quite a must win but its close, Shields (13-7) vs. Porcello (15-10)

Meanwhile, last night, plucky underdogs Wales won away from home..



Richard Hughes is now only SEVEN winners behind Ryan Moore in the @PJAOfficial Championship.

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An interesting article concering FL rookies. Our two OROY bets Cooks and Benjamin listed 1-2 and our DROY bet Donald in the video at the bottom stuffing Adrian Peterson. Donald might be on a bad team in a tough division but there are two things in his favour a) the division gives him profile if he continues to do well b) big ante post favourite Jadeveon Clowney is out for 6 weeks with a torn meniscus

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000392132/article/brandin-cooks-tops-rookie-watch-for-week-1?campaign=Twitter_atl

Meanwhile, your morning paper round up as the Indyref No campaign, strategy seemingly set by Alan Partridge, sends the Westminster leaders up to press the flesh today.

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Ahead of the Survation poll due this morning Yes is 3.35 on Betfair

[TightEnd]

Couple of bets I like at prices in the upcoming Champions League T20.

Perth @ 20/1

Lahore @ 40/1

Format is as follows:

There is a qualifying group of Lahore, Mumbai, Northern Districts (nz) and southern express (sl). Top 2 qualify for the main group.

Top 4 in the main group go through to semis.

Perth have a very decent team and have not been hit by any of the IPL teams nicking their players. They have very good death bowlers in Coulter Nile and Yaser Arafat, Mitch Marsh is on fire with the bat and the ever reliable Voges give them a decent base with the bat.

At the price I think they are deffo worth a bet, outside of the IPL teams I made them 5th favs.

Lahore I'm surprised to see that big, there was a doubt whether they would participate as it looked like they visas were gonna get refused. (India/Pakistan politics diplomatic as ever)

Anyway they are deffo playing, half the team play for Pakistan, Hafeez, Shehzad, Jamshed, Umar Akmal and Riaz. They have players who will know the conditions, the younger guys not having the experience of such a big tournament is always a gamble. Anyway at the price I feel its a bet.

I know Fred can't get on with some firms, so I'll leave it to you Tighty if you wanna take a worse price on them.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/champions-league-t20/winner

I haven't had the time to look at this much

it is in India, so not a great surprise the IPL teams are the top 4 in the betting

Perth, i can get 16-1. i'll ignore Yasir Arafat being claimed to be a good death bowler :-). Maybe 10 years ago, liability these days, better with the bat

Lahore, 40-1

you don't mention suggested amounts so for an interest...

erth Scorchers16/1Outright - 04/10/2014
Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£260.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £260.00

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Champions League T20
Outright Winner
EW 1/3 1,2    Lahore Lions    40/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 276.67
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 276.67

[TightEnd]

Racing, Doncaster:

a) tomorrow's Sceptre Stakes Group 3

J Wonder, Bragging, Lucky Kristale, Kiyoshi, Joyeuse all in it

looks a corker

currently we have 16 in and a 3/1 favourite 7/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/sceptre-stakes/winner

any each way thoughts in it?

b) The St Leger

looks a really good betting heat

A 3/1 favourite that needs worse than good to firm with little rain forecast...never struck me as a 1m6f horse anyway (ice cream view)

6/1 bar the top two, paying 1/4 top 3, must be plenty of each way pokes in this

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger/winner

any thoughts please

[TightEnd]

Saturday sees a Premier League game priced as follows

Home 1/4
Draw 5/1
Away 12/1

the away team is 3/1 +1 and 21/2 draw no bet


the Away team has started the season with two wins and a draw against non top six opposition

It is a counter-attacking unit, always a better bet away from home for me than at home

don't score too many, but as long as the defensive leader plays, they are extremely well marshalled at the back and have conceded one goal so far this season

In the identical fixture last year they went 2-0 up and we were on them to win at a big price and they drew, although this is barely relevant they are unbeaten in their last three trips to the ground

The home team is probably missing its leading striker, but obviously is strong at home, plenty of goals etc

i think a cocktail of away win, away win DNB, away team +1 looks great value


identifying the game is easy, tell me the value thoughts are wrong.... 

[DungBeetle]

Looks decent value to small stakes Tighty.

I know it didn't work out for their trip to West Ham but I think Saints are over-rated again.  Odds on at home to Newcastle?

[DungBeetle]

Also Middlesboro 5/4 away at Huddersfield?  I saw Huddersfield last time out and they were pretty good from what I could see being a bit unlucky to lose 2-4 to Watford.  Finishing was the difference. 

Now they have a new manager in charge, and Middlesboro are coming off the back of 2 successive home defeats.  This season they've beaten lowly Bolton and Birmingham, but lost to Leeds, Sheff Weds and Reading.  Hardly a great season so far.

How can the visiters be 5/4 here?

[Doobs]

Racing, Doncaster:

a) tomorrow's Sceptre Stakes Group 3

J Wonder, Bragging, Lucky Kristale, Kiyoshi, Joyeuse all in it

looks a corker

currently we have 16 in and a 3/1 favourite 7/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/sceptre-stakes/winner

any each way thoughts in it?

b) The St Leger

looks a really good betting heat

A 3/1 favourite that needs worse than good to firm with little rain forecast...never struck me as a 1m6f horse anyway (ice cream view)

6/1 bar the top two, paying 1/4 top 3, must be plenty of each way pokes in this

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger/winner

any thoughts please

The first race looks worse than the 2nd for each way.  Practically the same shape, but one is a fifth first 3, one a quarter. 

The Irish Champion looks a very interesting each way race.  First thoughts, Al Kazeem could be interesting.  Got the bearing of most if can get near top form, and the favourite very short.  Bookies well aware of the dirty each way potential and most horses miles from Betfair. 

[redarmi]

Also Middlesboro 5/4 away at Huddersfield?  I saw Huddersfield last time out and they were pretty good from what I could see being a bit unlucky to lose 2-4 to Watford.  Finishing was the difference. 

Now they have a new manager in charge, and Middlesboro are coming off the back of 2 successive home defeats.  This season they've beaten lowly Bolton and Birmingham, but lost to Leeds, Sheff Weds and Reading.  Hardly a great season so far.

How can the visiters be 5/4 here?

They can't be value.  Boro are consistently overrated by the betting markets this year.  They should improve as they gel and after a week off that could be more marked but it is still a bad price.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/blackpool-v-wolves/winner

Blackpool vs Wolves. Saturday 13th.

Wolves at 5/6.  With the news recently broken that the Burton manager has been discussing and subsequently rejected the role of manager, even the Riga is still in the role, the club goes from low to very lowe depths this week.

Morale and the atmosphere must be shot.  At 5/6 is this value for Wolves, given that maybe over the next few days Riga/Oyston could fall out even more before the weekend.

Blackpool 0-0-5. Wolves 4-0-1

Thoughts, I would suggest £30.

any further thoughts from anyone on this?

[TightEnd]

Also Middlesboro 5/4 away at Huddersfield?  I saw Huddersfield last time out and they were pretty good from what I could see being a bit unlucky to lose 2-4 to Watford.  Finishing was the difference. 

Now they have a new manager in charge, and Middlesboro are coming off the back of 2 successive home defeats.  This season they've beaten lowly Bolton and Birmingham, but lost to Leeds, Sheff Weds and Reading.  Hardly a great season so far.

How can the visiters be 5/4 here?

They can't be value.  Boro are consistently overrated by the betting markets this year.  They should improve as they gel and after a week off that could be more marked but it is still a bad price.

recommended bet size please, or further thoughts....

[TightEnd]

Racing, Doncaster:

a) tomorrow's Sceptre Stakes Group 3

J Wonder, Bragging, Lucky Kristale, Kiyoshi, Joyeuse all in it

looks a corker

currently we have 16 in and a 3/1 favourite 7/1 bar

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/sceptre-stakes/winner

any each way thoughts in it?

b) The St Leger

looks a really good betting heat

A 3/1 favourite that needs worse than good to firm with little rain forecast...never struck me as a 1m6f horse anyway (ice cream view)

6/1 bar the top two, paying 1/4 top 3, must be plenty of each way pokes in this

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger/winner

any thoughts please

The first race looks worse than the 2nd for each way.  Practically the same shape, but one is a fifth first 3, one a quarter. 

The Irish Champion looks a very interesting each way race.  First thoughts, Al Kazeem could be interesting.  Got the bearing of most if can get near top form, and the favourite very short.  Bookies well aware of the dirty each way potential and most horses miles from Betfair. 

Hanagan was quoted today as saying that the saturday ground would be good to firm if it didn't rain, which it is not forecast to

Kingston hill has been pulled out of its last two runs at short notice when it came up good to firm and is still 5/2, 3/1 in a couple of places

it's too short isn't it?

[arbboy]

bf have now put up a market for yes vote % so the 7/4 ladbrokes will not last long now their loltraders have a guide to work against (plenty matched 5/4-11/8 already on bf).  given the big move for no (1.45 into 1.35) in the last half hour after a key poll release the 7/4 has to go very soon if you are not already involved at bigger prices already get on.