Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Marten Kats ‏@MartenKats  1h
FC Twente B v PSV B in the Dutch 2nd division last night, attendance: 72. All time low in the division. @AgainstLeague3

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £261.84

Outstanding Bets £4520.15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=29


There was an admin adjustment today, in our favour of £83. Furyk dead-heated in the BMW earlier in the month and the result was recorded as such. the bookmaker settled on full each way terms. On realising this, we contacted them by email and via customer care online to make them aware of the mistake, and two weeks later there has been no adjustment back so i have altered the spreadsheet

 

No other bets completed yesterday

ongoing positions

We are one result away from collecting c£600 of baseball profits

The Baltimore Orioles beat their nearest AL East rivals the Toronto Blue Jays 5-2 last night. 12.5 games ahead with 13 games to play they are one win away from securing the divisional title. The Orioles have the second best team record in baseball.

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The New York Yankees lost 1-0 to the Tampa Bay Rays. They have a record of 76-73 with 13 games to go. Our bet requires them to win under 88 games. Ergo, the Yankees need to win 12 of 13 and are one loss away from our bet winning

The Royals beat the White Sox 4-3. In the key play Jarrod Dyson stole third base and here, seen diving for home plate, scored on a wild pitch

Click to see full-size image.

The Tigers won too and the Royals are 1.5 games behind in the AL Central with 13 games to go and 3 games to play against the Tigers. Half of the Royals bet is on the division, half is on the American league itself and currently the Royals are in the second wild card spot, two games clear of their nearest pursuer.

Click to see full-size image.

We have various Philadelphia Eagle related NFL bets (win the conference, win the superbowl, LeSean McCoy) and last night they came from behind to beat the Colts in Indianapolis 30-27 with a last second field goal to go 2-0 leading the NFC East

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McCoy is yet to properly fire, as is the whole offense but the Eagles they still lead the NFL in points & yards with their very exciting high tempo scheme cyurrently featuring the terrific veteran Darren Sproles

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It was an ennertaining game in Hull last night. No goals for Jelavic, but was a bit more confident that our West Ham top ten bet at 5/2+ had a shot after watching it

 

well done to the punter who had a tense night

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A double for Richard Hughes yesterday in the race for the Jockey's championship. He is now 4 behiond Ryan Moore

The Indyref looks to be a cliffhanger. The YES price on the £9m Betfair market edged up about 3% overnight to a 22.7% chance. Must say, it feels closer than that but no way of knowing for now!
 
Meanwhile, 8 months away is the general election and our Bearish Libdem bets look well placed. Last night's YouGov/Sun poll CON 31 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15



 

[tikay]

We are one result away from collecting c£600 of baseball profits


BOOM BOOM BASEBALL!

Amazing stuff.

[RickBFA]

Dont like the way Dougie Freedman keeps saying Bolton are nearly there after every game and reading around the fans want rid (a while ago tbh)

Not sure i am massively excited about Rotherham at 13/10 though, looks about right now to me.

Agree re 'Boro i have been quite impressed with them so far, Cardiff have used 30 players already certainly have a very good squad but not sure OGS knows what his best 16 is yet alone 11 yet

It might be me, but Rotherham are best price 9/4 now, not 13/10. Think its Bolton who are 13/10.

I got on them at 12/5.

[horseplayer]

was just going by jakally didnt check the price

apols

[horseplayer]

In other news

Alejandro Sabella is the TENTH different favourite for the Leeds job


From Messi to Michael Tongue

[TightEnd]

Back again, and going to make the same recommendation of Jack Payne fiirst goalscorer for Southend's visit to Cheltenham at 21-1 with vee cee.

Couple of half chances on saturday at 0-0 but to be fair never looked likely to break the dedlock.

The books are still pricing him incorectly imo. For example our holding midfielder Deegan who barely crossed the halfway line on saturday is priced at 16-1 best.

Again 365 have the right idea keeping him short at 10-1, and couple of others have already cut him to 12-1.

This wouldnt be quite as strong as saturday as Southend are only in for the first goal about 48% of the time compared to around 52% at the weekend, and Brownn actually switched to a 4-2 -3 -1 from the diamond which he is likely to persist with, where Payne didnt have quite the same free role playing as the middle of the attacking 3.


However, all things considered it is still good value and i cannot see any way Payne is bigger than a 14-1 shot max.

can't ignore 21-1! vetbictor

 Cheltenham Town v Southend United Jack Payne (1st Goalscorer - 90 Mins) Odds: 21/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  220.00

[TightEnd]

Anybody who watched the SkyPoker.com/Tv Champions League thingy show will have heard this but i do like Kiessling as a scorer this year especially in this group.

Personally i will be playing him in all markets tonight (fgs,any (saver), 2+ and even hat trick (Dreamer) Monaco have started awfully and this is the best time to play them. Leverkusen are just all out attack this season and could score a bagful tonight.

Fwiw the markets i liked originally were :

Over 2.5 goals (moved odds against to odds on)

Over 2+, Over 3+, Over 4+ Leverkusen goals (koral cut all 3 yesterday, might stick change up on the machine later though this match has very low liquidity at present)

And Bayer to win (moved yesterday as well)

give me a couple of the best bets when you can please....

[TightEnd]

Championship tomorrow.

What do you think about these two....

Cardiff 8/5 at home to Middlesborough

Looks big to me, Cardiff haven't set the Championship on fire but still have some quality players at this level.

Rotherham 12/5 at Bolton

Bolton were awful on Saturday and managed a draw at home to Wednesday who had 24 shots on goal and should have won. Rotherham are a motivated, well run outfit currently.

I'd appreciate your views.

Depends whether you believe that Cardiff are a lot better than they've shown so far.
They should be, but not confident enough to put money behind it.

I like Middlesbrough, and don't think they are particularly overrated (think someone else thought they were).

Rotherham are probably a bet (even at 13/10 which is best price now).

Have done Rotherham

Event Information:    Bolton V Rotherham
English
2014-09-16 20:00:00
Market:    Match betting
Selection:    Rotherham @ 9/4
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000738
Placed at:    09:50 16/09/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £15.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £15.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £15.00
   
   
   £48.75
   
Dougie must be close to the push, and hopefully this is the result...

[tikay]

Baseball

we have a free bet to use with Wlliam Hill

I almost backed the Balitmore Orioles in the AL East last year. By posting winning records in 2012 and 2013, the Orioles achieved the feat of back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 1996 and 1997. I have a soft spot for them because they are competing in one of the two toughest divisions in baseball against huge money and the manager Buck showalter has built them into a contender, slightly moneyball style. a blue collar team in a white collar division, and thats reflected in the markets

thread was on the red sox and the rays last year, and had great runs on both

redarmi has us "short" the yankees this year

I read this guys stuff a lot, very well informed

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24506108/season-predictions-how-the-mlb-division-races-will-shake-out

It stood out like a sore thumb that he had the orioles to win the al east this year, as the consensus is the red sox repeat, the rays contend and the yankees are always supported

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/american-league-east/winner

william hill 9-1, its 9.0 in a tiny betfair market

if chosen, this bet could give you a six month free bet sweat


nerd alert


i also have a soft spot for the quirky ball park, hemmed in on all sides in pitching distance of the port and really nicely modernised with an eye on the past. Its on my MLB ballpark bucketlist

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

nerd alert over

BUMPED.

Just thought it worth perusing that as we head for home base.

GREAT spot, GREAT use of a Free Bet, & GREAT brickwork. Most of all the brickwork.

[tikay]

i think 12-1 the orioles is a fine price, obviously a very very competitive division but still


Have a roller picture (Fenners, this morning) (start of the domestic cricket season) to be going on with too

You know my weaknessess. Cricket pitch rollers, fine brickwork, cast iron downpipes.

Shall we have £25 @ 12/1 with BMU on Baltimore, then?

i think so

here is an oriole

Click to see full-size image.

And another.

[tikay]

Tighy asked me if I would post my thoughts on the upcoming MLB season and I have had a fairly long look over the last few days.  All of the Sabremetrics out there these days mean that unless you really follow the sport and understand the maths it is hard to be the best but I'm not sure the oddsmakers are that great either especially when it comes to the ante post stuff and I think there are a couple of edges.

Firstly, going back to the division that we had our bets in last year.  I think my analysis at the beginning of the season was okay and we certainly had value in the Rays and we realised the Red Sox were the real deal in time to have a saver on them.  The bet last year basically revolved around the fact that the Yankees were overbet by the market and that the BlueJays were not going to be as good as expected.    If we look at the market this year we can see that the BLue Jays were awful last year and are expected to be the same again.  The Orioles are probably about what we would expect from them as a rag too which leaves us with the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays again.  Last year the Yankees won 85 games out of 162 so about 52% of game.  They scored 616 runs and conceded 702 runs.  Teams that have that run differential should really be expected to win about 71 games.  Since then they have traded their best hitter Robinson Cano, Andy Pettite who was a very good pitcher has retired as has Mariano Rivera who is probably the best relieving pitcher ever so you should expect them to be worse yet they are still third faves for the division and fifth faves for the world series.  They have made some improvements to the team but overall most of the roster is 30+ and they just look like a team in decline to me.  I think there are a couple of ways you can bet it.  The most obvious is to bet under 87 total season wins.  It is -129 at pinnacle (a shade under 4/5) and that is fine but with a bit of shopping we could probably find better.  Its a long time to tie the money up but I think they should be 2/5 under that number if the truth be told.  Alternatively we could just bet the Rays or Red Sox for the division.  I think both have value at their best price.

There are a couple of other bets that I am mulling but not totally sure and I will post when I have done a bit more work if I think they are value.

...and another.

We have some awesome experts amongst us in almost every sport. We are deffo strongest in horses & football, but plenty of other sports, too.

[DungBeetle]

Struggling with the odds for one L1 match tonight

There is one home team with a record this season of W2D2L3 against an away team with W5D1L1.  They are 23/10.

There is another home team with  a record of W2D2L2 against an away team with W1D3L2.  They are the same price.

hmmmm

[TightEnd]

Newcastle United v Hull City this weekend

Hull City at 3/1 feels like a value play here. The Newcastle side thrashed 4-0 by Southampton looked half-hearted, disinterested and tactically naive. Pardew is unlikely to be replaced before this game. Newcastle at home are of course a different proposition but I didn't see too many signs that the players were going to pull out all the stops for their manager in recent games

Hull are organised, committed and with the arrival of Hernandez and Diame have more goal-scorers in the team to support Jelavic. I would price this game up far closer than Newcastle 11/10 Hull 3/1 which is what BetVictor offer

i made it far more of a home 6/4 away 15/8  draw 5/2 type game

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-hull/winner

i know its a bit momentum-y but i came at it from the value aspect of pricing it up then looking at the prices...

[Chompy]

Struggling with the odds for one L1 match tonight

There is one home team with a record this season of W2D2L3 against an away team with W5D1L1.  They are 23/10.

There is another home team with  a record of W2D2L2 against an away team with W1D3L2.  They are the same price.

hmmmm

Is one of these Notts Co v Orient?

Apparently Russell Slade is close to getting the boot and tonight's game is key. It would be utterly ridiculous if he gets sacked. Wouldn't be wanting to go to Derry's mob needing a result though.

John Taylor is yet to score for Poshies but he's been our best player so far, or at worst dead-heating with Maddison, and there's been an over-reaction in his anytime price. He started the season around half the prices being quoted now and 5-1 with Hillies is too big.

£20 at that price please.