Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Question for Arb, do you factor in injury rates on season bets? I'd imagine basketball has a higher incidence than many sports.

I think they are neutral.  Rondo is as likely to get injured as Paul imo this year.  It's as likely to work for me as against me so in the long term unless a player is massively injury prone then i wouldn't really factor it into my calculations.

[Tonji]

Question for Arb, do you factor in injury rates on season bets? I'd imagine basketball has a higher incidence than many sports.

I think they are neutral.  Rondo is as likely to get injured as Paul imo this year.  It's as likely to work for me as against me so in the long term unless a player is massively injury prone then i wouldn't really factor it into my calculations.

thanks Arb. good luck with your season.

[bergeroo]

I couldn't find this on the Laddies website directly, only through oddschecker. This is for most assists per game? not overall total. How many games do you need to play to qualify? Is it for regular season only?

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/assist-leader

Rondo 11/4 most assists ladbrokes

Another nba max bet (each way this time) which is even stronger than the Toronto division bet imo.  I don't mind how much fred has on this (appreciate we are tying up a lot of money ante post) but i have backed this very large ew.  I make Rondo a decent fav in this market which, barring injury, is a 3 or 4 horse race realistically based on the previous 3 or 4 years assists stats shown below.  The front two in the market should be the clear front two in the market but for me ladbrokes have them the wrong way round.  On top of this 'rick' it's an incredibly good ew betting market.  It would be like bookies offering the EPL outright market at 1/4 1234 imo maths wise at the start of the season.

I assume this is because Rondo was injured for most of last season and didn't register on the assist leaderboard.  It just stinks of bad odds compiling by ladbrokes and the 1/5 123 ew terms are quite insane in a market like this.  In an injury free season Rondo would seriously be about 1/20 to top 3 in this market.  He is a big time pass first (which is an assist) rather than shoot first point guard.  Scoring is Rondo's biggest weakness in his game which makes him such an effective assist man.  Rondo is approaching his peak years in his career so there is little reason to think he will at least hold his previous stats, if not improve on them.  Secondly, this is a 'contract year ' for Rondo as he is in the last year of his current 5 year deal and his next contract will be the largest of his career so this season he is absolutely going to be focused on putting up huge numbers to secure that contract esp after missing a season through injury last year.  

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2014
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2013
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2012
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2011

Both Chris Paul and Rondo (the two market leaders) have played 1 game each so far with Rondo having 12 assists in his game and Paul 7 in his.  The clear 3rd fav is John Wall who has played 2 games so far and averaged 11.5 assists across his 2 games and is a live 3rd fav.  Barring these 3 i find it very hard to consider any other player making a serious run at winning this category.

[Dubai]

It's easier to find on mobile site than normal
Go basketball, competitions at top, nba awards and its there

[BigAdz]

Charlie Hall Chase

Wetherby tomorrow

11/10 Silviniaco Conti
7/2 Taquin Du Seuil
 6 Menorah
10 The Giant Bolster, Medermit
14 Double Ross
18 Wayward Prince
66 Ballypatrick

some books pay 3 places e/w

its early season, some will be fitter than others and (this may or may not be correct, but i've read it somewhere i can't remember where which is helpful) Nicholls is in a bit of a transitional phase, talking having a tough season etc

can we find something to beat the favourite here?

7 runners now. Yuk

[sonour]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/assist-leader

Rondo 11/4 most assists ladbrokes

Another nba max bet (each way this time) which is even stronger than the Toronto division bet imo.  I don't mind how much fred has on this (appreciate we are tying up a lot of money ante post) but i have backed this very large ew.  I make Rondo a decent fav in this market which, barring injury, is a 3 or 4 horse race realistically based on the previous 3 or 4 years assists stats shown below.  The front two in the market should be the clear front two in the market but for me ladbrokes have them the wrong way round.  On top of this 'rick' it's an incredibly good ew betting market.  It would be like bookies offering the EPL outright market at 1/4 1234 imo maths wise at the start of the season.

I assume this is because Rondo was injured for most of last season and didn't register on the assist leaderboard.  It just stinks of bad odds compiling by ladbrokes and the 1/5 123 ew terms are quite insane in a market like this.  In an injury free season Rondo would seriously be about 1/20 to top 3 in this market.  He is a big time pass first (which is an assist) rather than shoot first point guard.  Scoring is Rondo's biggest weakness in his game which makes him such an effective assist man.  Rondo is approaching his peak years in his career so there is little reason to think he will at least hold his previous stats, if not improve on them.  Secondly, this is a 'contract year ' for Rondo as he is in the last year of his current 5 year deal and his next contract will be the largest of his career so this season he is absolutely going to be focused on putting up huge numbers to secure that contract esp after missing a season through injury last year. 

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2014
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2013
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2012
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2011

Both Chris Paul and Rondo (the two market leaders) have played 1 game each so far with Rondo having 12 assists in his game and Paul 7 in his.  The clear 3rd fav is John Wall who has played 2 games so far and averaged 11.5 assists across his 2 games and is a live 3 fav.  Barring these 3 i find it very hard to consider any other player making a serious run at winning this category.

i know its pathetic, as i would have done three figures each way, but we were restricted as below

Event Information:    2014/15 NBA Regular Season Most Assists Per Game
American
2014-11-05 00:05:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Rajon Rondo @ 5/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000767
Placed at:    10:46 31/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £20.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £40.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £40.00
   
   
   £100.00

How much would you like Tighty ?

[horseplayer]

pleasing to see Ron Wood in the spotlights in the rp today put up P Politics

[bergeroo]

When I lived in the US I watched a lot of NBA and the Celtics were one of THE teams and Rondo was still pretty new in the league. 07-08 when they won, what a great team. Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Rondo. Now I suppose he is more of a grizzled veteran and the only one left of that particular team. Decent chance he is going to get traded at some point, but that doesn't hurt the bet at all.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/assist-leader

Rondo 11/4 most assists ladbrokes

Another nba max bet (each way this time) which is even stronger than the Toronto division bet imo.  I don't mind how much fred has on this (appreciate we are tying up a lot of money ante post) but i have backed this very large ew.  I make Rondo a decent fav in this market which, barring injury, is a 3 or 4 horse race realistically based on the previous 3 or 4 years assists stats shown below.  The front two in the market should be the clear front two in the market but for me ladbrokes have them the wrong way round.  On top of this 'rick' it's an incredibly good ew betting market.  It would be like bookies offering the EPL outright market at 1/4 1234 imo maths wise at the start of the season.

I assume this is because Rondo was injured for most of last season and didn't register on the assist leaderboard.  It just stinks of bad odds compiling by ladbrokes and the 1/5 123 ew terms are quite insane in a market like this.  In an injury free season Rondo would seriously be about 1/20 to top 3 in this market.  He is a big time pass first (which is an assist) rather than shoot first point guard.  Scoring is Rondo's biggest weakness in his game which makes him such an effective assist man.  Rondo is approaching his peak years in his career so there is little reason to think he will at least hold his previous stats, if not improve on them.  Secondly, this is a 'contract year ' for Rondo as he is in the last year of his current 5 year deal and his next contract will be the largest of his career so this season he is absolutely going to be focused on putting up huge numbers to secure that contract esp after missing a season through injury last year. 

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2014
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2013
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2012
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2011

Both Chris Paul and Rondo (the two market leaders) have played 1 game each so far with Rondo having 12 assists in his game and Paul 7 in his.  The clear 3rd fav is John Wall who has played 2 games so far and averaged 11.5 assists across his 2 games and is a live 3 fav.  Barring these 3 i find it very hard to consider any other player making a serious run at winning this category.

i know its pathetic, as i would have done three figures each way, but we were restricted as below

Event Information:    2014/15 NBA Regular Season Most Assists Per Game
American
2014-11-05 00:05:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Rajon Rondo @ 5/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000767
Placed at:    10:46 31/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £20.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £40.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £40.00
   
   
   £100.00

How much would you like Tighty ?

i would have done £100 e/w, and not told the boss

[TightEnd]

Charlie Hall Chase

Wetherby tomorrow

11/10 Silviniaco Conti
7/2 Taquin Du Seuil
 6 Menorah
10 The Giant Bolster, Medermit
14 Double Ross
18 Wayward Prince
66 Ballypatrick

some books pay 3 places e/w

its early season, some will be fitter than others and (this may or may not be correct, but i've read it somewhere i can't remember where which is helpful) Nicholls is in a bit of a transitional phase, talking having a tough season etc

can we find something to beat the favourite here?

7 runners now. Yuk

thanks anyway for the word on DR

obviously not the same interest at 1/4 1,2

if you can leave the superstitious thoughts behind for the NH season, please put some stuff up.

[sonour]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/assist-leader

Rondo 11/4 most assists ladbrokes

Another nba max bet (each way this time) which is even stronger than the Toronto division bet imo.  I don't mind how much fred has on this (appreciate we are tying up a lot of money ante post) but i have backed this very large ew.  I make Rondo a decent fav in this market which, barring injury, is a 3 or 4 horse race realistically based on the previous 3 or 4 years assists stats shown below.  The front two in the market should be the clear front two in the market but for me ladbrokes have them the wrong way round.  On top of this 'rick' it's an incredibly good ew betting market.  It would be like bookies offering the EPL outright market at 1/4 1234 imo maths wise at the start of the season.

I assume this is because Rondo was injured for most of last season and didn't register on the assist leaderboard.  It just stinks of bad odds compiling by ladbrokes and the 1/5 123 ew terms are quite insane in a market like this.  In an injury free season Rondo would seriously be about 1/20 to top 3 in this market.  He is a big time pass first (which is an assist) rather than shoot first point guard.  Scoring is Rondo's biggest weakness in his game which makes him such an effective assist man.  Rondo is approaching his peak years in his career so there is little reason to think he will at least hold his previous stats, if not improve on them.  Secondly, this is a 'contract year ' for Rondo as he is in the last year of his current 5 year deal and his next contract will be the largest of his career so this season he is absolutely going to be focused on putting up huge numbers to secure that contract esp after missing a season through injury last year. 

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2014
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2013
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2012
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/assists/sort/avgAssists/year/2011

Both Chris Paul and Rondo (the two market leaders) have played 1 game each so far with Rondo having 12 assists in his game and Paul 7 in his.  The clear 3rd fav is John Wall who has played 2 games so far and averaged 11.5 assists across his 2 games and is a live 3 fav.  Barring these 3 i find it very hard to consider any other player making a serious run at winning this category.

i know its pathetic, as i would have done three figures each way, but we were restricted as below

Event Information:    2014/15 NBA Regular Season Most Assists Per Game
American
2014-11-05 00:05:00
Market:    Award Winner
Selection:    Rajon Rondo @ 5/2
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000767
Placed at:    10:46 31/10/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £20.00
Number of lines:    2
Stake:    £40.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £40.00
   
   
   £100.00

How much would you like Tighty ?

i would have done £100 e/w, and not told the boss

£80 ew ON

[Marky147]

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for anyone who wants a really detailed look at our NFL Defensive rookie of the year bet, and former winning NFL draft bet

"There are some impressive performances over half a season from this crop of rookies. Khalil Mack in Oakland and Anthony Barr in Minnesota have made some big plays and had some impressive games, but there might not be a more impressive looking rookie than Aaron Donald right now."

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/10/29/analysis-notebook-week-8-4/

Love those gifs!

Need to be pretty unlucky, not to get a return on at least one of your antepost player bets, Tighty.

[TightEnd]

surprised Channel 4 are not covering the breeders cup.

they used to, i think

did they try this year?

if not, why would they not?

its on at the races, as far as i can see?

[BorntoBubble]

Mr Blue Sky have what looks a very nice boost on Arsenal/Chelsea and Everton all to win at 4-1.

May have to get on Tinder for those extra wives.

No wonder Adzy always looks tired.

Click to see full-size image.

Who is Mr Blue sky?

couldnt find the bet now I have. Cancel that

[Marky147]

Mr Blue Sky have what looks a very nice boost on Arsenal/Chelsea and Everton all to win at 4-1.

May have to get on Tinder for those extra wives.

Nice of them to let me have a whole £2.50