Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Bengals@Texans.  The key for me in this game is the Bengals run defense and all the noise coming out of Cincy is about stopping the run, if successful there are plenty of 1st round picks on rotation in the secondary to snuff out Malletts pass game on his home debut.Gio Bernard's return and Hills form should make for a strong bengals run and play action game.Would like to recommend £20 bengals -5.5 at 5/2 laddies.Quite happy if the experts pick this apart as I might have my rose tinted specs on being a fan.

Line is Texans -1.5

seems about right. Bengals usually (bad Dalton weeks apart) a slightly better team but Texans at home

think its a stretch to see Bengals winning by far

with Ryan Mallett I am sure there will be inconsistencies but if a defense wnats to key in on Arian Foster then at least Mallett offers the prospect of making them pay for that by finding Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins more constiently than Fitzmagic did

against that, Bengals pass defense is good

I am open minded to others opinions of course

[TightEnd]

by the way PokerStars is launching a sportsbook for 2015 (after roulette and blackjack)

I look forward to a new Pinnacle in town (i joke). Wll be interesting to see the stategy adopted with it

[TightEnd]

Abu Dhabi free practice

"Hamilton bettered Mercedes team-mate and title rival Nico Rosberg by just over a tenth of a second in FP1 but the times in the second session were closer as Hamilton managed a second fast lap on his super soft to put Rosberg behind him by just 0.083s.

Sergio Perez was in the faster of the Force Indias in both sessions, ending the afternoon 11th quickest, two places and three tenths of a second faster than Nico Hulkenberg."

i got the Perez bet on, but the Hulkenberg price has gone

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/abu-dhabi-grand-prix/top-6-finish

with Peter, to advise further

[Stopsleyhatter]

Bengals@Texans.  The key for me in this game is the Bengals run defense and all the noise coming out of Cincy is about stopping the run, if successful there are plenty of 1st round picks on rotation in the secondary to snuff out Malletts pass game on his home debut.Gio Bernard's return and Hills form should make for a strong bengals run and play action game.Would like to recommend £20 bengals -5.5 at 5/2 laddies.Quite happy if the experts pick this apart as I might have my rose tinted specs on being a fan.

Line is Texans -1.5

seems about right. Bengals ususally (bad Dalton weeks apart) a slightly better team but Texans at home

think its a stretch to see Bengals winning by far

with Ryan Mallett I am sure there will be inconsistencies but if a defense wnats to key in on Arian Foster then at least Mallett offers the prospect of making them pay for that by finding Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins more constiently than Fitzmagic did

against that, Bengals pass defense is good

I am open minded to others opinions of course

Cheers tighty probably a bet for myself only as a hopeful fan..

[Tal]

Game ten in Sochi should now be a draw: double rook and pawn endgame, even with an imbalance on the pawn structure, it should not prove decisive.

[rfgqqabc]

by the way PokerStars is launching a sportsbook for 2015 (after roulette and blackjack)

I look forward to a new Pinnacle in town (i joke). Wll be interesting to see the stategy adopted with it

Doubt the suits will hire any traders, be a gimmick site I'd imagine. Think beetfair sports book request. Got to shoot for short term profit margins when your in the hole.

[arbboy]

by the way PokerStars is launching a sportsbook for 2015 (after roulette and blackjack)

I look forward to a new Pinnacle in town (i joke). Wll be interesting to see the stategy adopted with it

Doubt the suits will hire any traders, be a gimmick site I'd imagine. Think beetfair sports book request. Got to shoot for short term profit margins when your in the hole.

With their global world wide rep/brand plus their huge bankroll from stars financing it the product could easily be bigger than betfair/pinnacle if managed correctly.  Depends if they want to win 1% of the world or 10% of fuck all.  Most modern day sports books prefer the latter for some reason.

[Kmac84]

Big game for Fred @ Tynecastle tomorrow when the Jambos take on the impersabears a win for Hearts and we're loving our ante post bet.  I think Hearts are a bet tomorrow, although it's pretty marginal.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Bit surprised you can get 17/1 on Luton winning 2-0 at Burton considering how tight the defence has been this season.

[Peter-27]

Hey guys, need some advice to be honest. Would love to get opinions on what I'm about to say.

As people who take gambling seriously, we always look to find value. However, over the last few F1 races I have been doing this for the betting group, with pretty poor losses. I understand that we all have up and down weeks - but I feel like I'm damaging my reputation as a result.

I have picked up a number of bets for this weekend (F1 & FE), and while you're welcome to use them all under my name, I'm going to spilt them into bets based on confidence and bets based on value.

Confidence bets:
Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 10/11 with Paddy Power and William Hill. Suggest £10.

Value bets:
Top 6 Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/1 with Bwin.

As for the Formula E, there are a number of drivers that represent value for the win - all with Ladbrokes:  Sebastien Buemi (5/1), Nicolas Prost (14/1), Antonio Felix da Costa (33/1), Stephane Sarrazin (50/1).

i'll do f1 tomorrow

could you narrow down the Formula E bets please? what do we know about the new formula that makes those outsiders over-priced, for example?

on F1, keep the ideas coming (next season, now!). you had a good run initially, its been tough recently but that happens and its a sport we have struggled with

in part i put that down to it being a sport with firm trends for several years...red bull won four in a row, mercedes well clear this year...and when the favourites keep winning its difficult to get a value/contrarian approach to pay

that said, we are about to make some money after Abu Dhabi. we have Hamilton ante-post at 3/1, placed in february, and then Rosberg at 6/5 mid season too 

Hulkenberg top six @ 11/1 is showing for me with Bwin - wouldn't go lower than 9/1.

As for Formula E - all those four drivers represent value:

Buemi is the best driver in the field talent wise, should be the favourite. Prost nearly won the last race, 14/1 is crazy. da Costa is an up-and-coming driver who can be exceptionally quick, 33/1 to way too high - even half that price would be value. Sarrazin showed bursts of speed in the last race, if he can manage his power better over this race, he will be a threat for the win - don't understand the 50/1, it's like the bookies didn't even watch the first race :/

[arbboy]

Mixed night on the NBA. Toronto (as usual) have hosed up by 40 at home to the in form Bucks to go 10-2.  They really are looking like the real deal.  2/5 with skybet they win their division is stealing money for anyone who can get it and willing to tie money up for 5 months.  You don't get 40% in the bank.  Couldn't put anyone off topping up on them ew at 40/1 for the nba title either.  20/1 to win the East is a huge price given how bad the Cavs are playing and how injury prone the Bulls are.  Parker (ROY bet) had another good solid game even in a big defeat (15 points 6 rebounds 3 assists) for the Bucks.

Spurs hosed up on the road by 25ish at the time of writing.  I had a detailed look at the Spurs first 10 games and they were really unlucky not to be 9-1 against some really tough opponents (most of them on the road).  They have only been beat more than 5 in one game all season and they rested their entire team that night.  As i said before i really like the spurs next month's schedule they could easily go on a 15 game win streak.  Ladbrokes have gone 11/10 they win their division today and i think we should top up with another £50 at 11/10.

Rondo has had a terrible night assist wise (albeit against the best defence in the league so it was exepected tonight) with only 4 assists.  Paul didn't play tonight and Wall (3rd in standings only had 6 assists in his game so the damage isn't that bad).

Cavs lost on the road to the Wiz.  They really are looking poor as a unit.  It's early days but i watched their whole game tonight on BT sport and they were really poor.  They have longer term chemistry issues which i am not convinced are that easy to solve.  Their rookie coach might be struggling here to cope with the expectations/ dealing with 3 all stars on his team.  Cavs now have a 5 game home stand and a further 4 games after that against East coast teams (9 total games against East teams which is the weaker conference) so the next 2 weeks for the Cavs is key.  During this 9 game sequence they play all 3 of this season's games against the Raptors, 2 of them at home.  Similar to the Spurs they have a very easy month ahead and should improve but will they sufficiently improve to be able to live up to early season expectations?

[Eddycadub]

I like Portland to win their division 10/11 at the moment on WH. OKC are the only real contenders there with Denver being pretty poor so far this season, and with Westbrook a couple weeks away from returning, and Durant perhaps 4-6 weeks away, they are going to have go on a hell of a run to even make the playoffs with that squad healthy. Until those guys return, OKC are going to continue to have a tough time of it. Seems like the odds will change after tonight too, depending on blazers vs bulls result which is on right now.

Any basketball guys have thoughts?

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £409.29

Outstanding Bets £4072.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £20 yesterday

Wawrinka beat Tsonga in four sets in the opening game of the Davis Cup. France later equalised when Monfils best Federer in three sets to take them into today's doubles 1-1

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ongoing positions

Top six bet Fulham lost 2-1 at Brentford to an injury time winner, which was deserved on the balance of play as Fulhasm were under the cosh for a lot of the game

Fulham are 17th, ten points off the top six

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Carlsen and Anand drew in game 10 in a hard fought Grunfeld. Carlsen leads 5.5-4.5 with two games to go. We need another Carlsen win to win the handicap bet

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In F1, a Mercedes 1-2 in free practice for the final Grand Prix of the season in Abu Dhabi

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the summary of the season for the Mercedes drivers so far

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Basketball is summarised in the post above. Also

- Raptors: won by 41, 2nd-largest win in franchise history (42 in 2007-08 vs Heat)

- Raptors: 10-2; best record in the Eastern Conference

Click to see full-size image.

- A LeBron James team is under .500 beyond the 10-game mark for the first time since the 2007-2008 season

- The Dallas Mavericks scored 140 points beating the Lakers. Highest score of any team so far this season

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Meanwhile this is Buffalo yesterday

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and

53 players, and coaches, have to be collexcted by snowmobile to get the whole lot to the airport



before eventually, next stop Detroit

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[Rubbish2407]

One of my favourite sporting moments.



What you don't hear is the Ref telling Ryan Jones to back off and him saying "this is our house, tell them to back off". Shame we didn't win, maybe today?

[TightEnd]

11-1 bwin, 7-1 best elsewhere

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/abu-dhabi-grand-prix/top-6-finish

GP Abu Dhabi - Race
Top 6 bet
Pick: Nico Hulkenberg (GER/Force India) 12.00

Total stake 10.00 GBP
Possible winnings 120.00 GBP