Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e

the Formula E markets are down, and i am offline all day sorry


so i go to check the race time and discover it took place overnight. whoops!

well done me

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/116890



peter's friends finished 3rd,4th, 8th, 12th

[Tonji]

Checks google for Grunfeld.

ok, a chess opening.

Images lead with

Click to see full-size image.

disturbingly weird.

[jakally]

Bit surprised you can get 17/1 on Luton winning 2-0 at Burton considering how tight the defence has been this season.

I've only got Championship/League 1 data, but over 2000ish games, 0-2 occurs about 4%.
Luton are best priced 12/5, therefore away win will occur 29.4%, which matches the average times an away win happens.
Even if we say that when Luton win, they win to nil > average, we are probably not any significant distance the right side of the line.

(Sad geek - too much time!!).

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

Amazed the airport is even open looking at that snow. Heathrow & Gatwick would not be!

[tikay]

Bit surprised you can get 17/1 on Luton winning 2-0 at Burton considering how tight the defence has been this season.

I've only got Championship/League 1 data, but over 2000ish games, 0-2 occurs about 4%.
Luton are best priced 12/5, therefore away win will occur 29.4%, which matches the average times an away win happens.
Even if we say that when Luton win, they win to nil > average, we are probably not any significant distance the right side of the line.

(Sad geek - too much time!!).

Great analysis Neil. Puts the odds into better perspective.

[Tal]

Checks google for Grunfeld.

ok, a chess opening.

Images lead with

Click to see full-size image.

disturbingly weird.

That's Grunfeld the artist (well, that isn't; it's one of his works). This is the defence:



It's one of the most aggressive counters to the queen's pawn opening.

Anand has one way to try to keep the initiative as white and that was playing the Russian Variation of the opening, which is useful for Carlsen because he can prepare one opening, rather than spreading his research around.

Two games left. As Tighty says, our man needs to win one. Day off today, so we can concentrate on other matters, like yesterday's electric car racing.

[T_Mar]

I presume you following Mr Channing in the Fixed brush Hurdle....

If anyone fancies anything else in that race, BF sportsbook are 5 places in a 16 runnner race its got to be worth getting involved with those terms, although maybe wait until closer to the race, as a NR wouldn't be good obv

[tikay]

Checks google for Grunfeld.

ok, a chess opening.

Images lead with

Click to see full-size image.

disturbingly weird.

That's Grunfeld the artist (well, that isn't; it's one of his works). This is the defence:



It's one of the most aggressive counters to the queen's pawn opening.

Anand has one way to try to keep the initiative as white and that was playing the Russian Variation of the opening, which is useful for Carlsen because he can prepare one opening, rather than spreading his research around.

Two games left. As Tighty says, our man needs to win one. Day off today, so we can concentrate on other matters, like yesterday's electric car racing.

We need to win 1 more gme, & only 2 games remain, so that does not look great.

I don't understand chess, but presumably....

Carlsen can play to draw, that is all he needs to do?

Anand HAS to attack to get that win, so it may open him up defensively, & Carlsen can take advantage?

What happens if Anand gets one win & they draw the other, so the scores are tied? Who wins then? (Our bet loses, but I mean the Title).

[Tal]

You've pretty much covered it. If they finish 6-6 after 12 games, there's a play-off, which will be a series of shorter games on the clock.

[Chompy]

Laddies are 4-1 Ollie Murs to be an X Factor judge in 2015.

This is probably Louis Walsh's last year and, if they continue to flog this dead horse, Ollie is the most likely to take over imo.

He's apparently sitting in for Cheryl the chav tonight.

Flick in a pony ta.

[tikay]

I presume you following Mr Channing in the Fixed brush Hurdle....

If anyone fancies anything else in that race, BF sportsbook are 5 places in a 16 runnner race its got to be worth getting involved with those terms, although maybe wait until closer to the race, as a NR wouldn't be good obv

I don't know if Tighty is around today, but I've bet Neil's horse on my own account, & beat his recommended price, too. Will decide later if we should tx the bet to Fred. I had £25 EW.

That 5 places thing from Betfair Sportsbook is a bit complicated for me to work out, as they are a much shorter price, so it may cancel itself out?

Also, I saw Betfair Sportsbook advertising this.....


3/1+ Racing Special
Back a winner at 3/1 or greater at Haydock or Ascot this Saturday and receive a free bet token to the same value



1
Place a single bet on any race at Haydock or Ascot this Saturday
2
If your horse wins at SP odds of 3/1 or greater, you will receive a free bet token to the same value, up to £25
3
On top of this we'll DOUBLE YOUR FREE BET if your horse wins by 3 lengths or more, up to £50


That looks stunning value, but when I tried to open the page, it said "Promotion Now Closed".

Lets see what others, & the maths boys, think.

I can't "spoil" the BE Free Tip, but others can find it here.....

http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/44

At present, that sauggested price can be beaten in several spots.

[tikay]

Laddies are 4-1 Ollie Murs to be an X Factor judge in 2015.

This is probably Louis Walsh's last year and, if they continue to flog this dead horse, Ollie is the most likely to take over imo.

He's apparently sitting in for Cheryl the chav tonight.

Flick in a pony ta.

When would that bet mature?

Not sure I want to bet on something 9 months down the line. The chances of both Fred & me surviving that long would be a decent long-price double, imo, a banzai even. 

[Tal]

With lots going on in and out of work this week, I haven't had the chance to study the...er...form in Strictly, so unless I get the chance this afternoon, I won't have a tip for the evening's meet.

Hopefully, I'll get time later, but it might not be Fred-suitable anyway. If I find time and something jumps out, I'll post it ITT in case fellow ice creams have accounts available.

Your obedient servant

Tal
Strictly "Expert" (says The Ambassador)

[Chompy]

Laddies are 4-1 Ollie Murs to be an X Factor judge in 2015.

This is probably Louis Walsh's last year and, if they continue to flog this dead horse, Ollie is the most likely to take over imo.

He's apparently sitting in for Cheryl the chav tonight.

Flick in a pony ta.

When would that bet mature?

Not sure I want to bet on something 9 months down the line. The chances of both Fred & me surviving that long would be a decent long-price double, imo, a banzai even. 

Next August, by which time and TfT and its TV-presenting figurehead will both still be going strong.

[horseplayer]

Laddies are 4-1 Ollie Murs to be an X Factor judge in 2015.

This is probably Louis Walsh's last year and, if they continue to flog this dead horse, Ollie is the most likely to take over imo.

He's apparently sitting in for Cheryl the chav tonight.

Flick in a pony ta.

When would that bet mature?

Not sure I want to bet on something 9 months down the line. The chances of both Fred & me surviving that long would be a decent long-price double, imo, a banzai even. 

You have been saying you wont be around in 9 months since fred began