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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332980 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #92655 on: December 21, 2014, 02:21:25 PM »

i can't do crowell, nowhere we can get on

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cleveland-browns-at-carolina-panthers/total-rushing-yds-isaiah-crowell

ladbrokes restrict to £11 on Manziel, the worst restriction i have seen yet for us on these props

Event Information:    Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers - Player Props
NFL Player Props
2014-12-21 18:00:00
Market:    Passing Yards - J Manziel
Selection:    Under @ 10/11
Handicap:    +185.5
   
Receipt No.:    O/142640973/0000804
Placed at:    13:51 21/12/2014
Bet Type:    Single
Stake Per Line:    £11.00
Number of lines:    1
Stake:    £11.00
Tax:    £0.00
Tax Rate:    0.00%
Total Paid:    £11.00
   
   
   £21.00





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« Reply #92656 on: December 21, 2014, 02:24:20 PM »

We Better remember to back something in the Liverpool/Arsenal game.  They are best price Liverpool and Arsenal.  Given the thread situation we should stick to 1-2-x bets.  

I personally have backed Liverpool, as I am assuming they are going to be on the upgrade and laying Liverpool hasn't been the greatest thread strategy over the years.  Don't think it matters too much, the prices look about right.   But we should just bet anyway as b365 are paying us to do so.  

I think we get b365 offers still, despite our situation.  If this is wrong thread should put its feet up and just enjoy the game.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #92657 on: December 21, 2014, 02:31:17 PM »

what games matter to us tonight?

sky game at 6pm: kc at pittsburgh

we need pittsburgh in the worst way for ante-post bets in a very crowded AFC play off race

green bay at tampa bay

we need green bay, they can win the last two and win the division. a lions loss at the bears, however unlikely, would be the double bubble result. the lions play at the packers next week

seattle at arizona the late game on channel 4

we need arizona, divisional bet

this is the lowest over/under for more than 2 years. Arizona third choice QB against the Seattle defense. GL us, we may need it. seattle are 8 point favourites away at an 11-3 team with total points expected to be 36!!

colts at cowboys the second game on sky

we need the colts to beat the cowboys or else the eagles bets are losers

falcons at saints


we need matt ryan the falcons QB to have a big night

giants at rams


big night for the rams defense and aaron donald sacks required

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« Reply #92658 on: December 21, 2014, 02:34:02 PM »

We Better remember to back something in the Liverpool/Arsenal game.  They are best price Liverpool and Arsenal.  Given the thread situation we should stick to 1-2-x bets. 

I personally have backed Liverpool, as I am assuming they are going to be on the upgrade and laying Liverpool hasn't been the greatest thread strategy over the years.  Don't think it matters too much, the prices look about right.   But we should just bet anyway as b365 are paying us to do so. 

I think we get b365 offers still, despite our situation.  If this is wrong thread should put its feet up and just enjoy the game.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-arsenal/winner

Arsenal are favourites

assuming i can get £50 on a 1-2-x beforehand on tikay's account

what do we want the in-play bet to be?
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« Reply #92659 on: December 21, 2014, 02:42:49 PM »

We Better remember to back something in the Liverpool/Arsenal game.  They are best price Liverpool and Arsenal.  Given the thread situation we should stick to 1-2-x bets. 

I personally have backed Liverpool, as I am assuming they are going to be on the upgrade and laying Liverpool hasn't been the greatest thread strategy over the years.  Don't think it matters too much, the prices look about right.   But we should just bet anyway as b365 are paying us to do so. 

I think we get b365 offers still, despite our situation.  If this is wrong thread should put its feet up and just enjoy the game.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-arsenal/winner

Arsenal are favourites

assuming i can get £50 on a 1-2-x beforehand on tikay's account

what do we want the in-play bet to be?

Don't think it matters too much.  It should be one of the 3 we didn't back before kick off.   Home and away are best price and even the draw is near best price.  If we bet Liverpool pre, I think we should bet the draw in play, if we bet arsenal pre we should probably back the draw in play too.  I am sure everybody has a view so am happy to just go with what the majority decides.

Everyone who isn't restricted should bet much more smartly with the 2nd bet. 

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« Reply #92660 on: December 21, 2014, 02:52:06 PM »

I'm looking at backing a team to win (not decided who yet)

Then backing that team in a correct score market where the price is as close to betfair as possible. Probably 1-0 2-1 type result as they are best prices at the minute
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« Reply #92661 on: December 21, 2014, 04:09:09 PM »

The Ox starts today at Anfield and he's been in excellent form this season.

He looks like scoring in every game and the 23/1 on betty for FGS looke massive.

Recommend £5 The Ox FGS.

COYG
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« Reply #92662 on: December 21, 2014, 04:10:06 PM »

Tighty, interested in your views on the team to commit to first turnover in the Cowboys-Colts game. Murray is back from hand surgery and might not get the mail-carrying duties as heavily as normal. He's not going to be as strong as a pass protector, either, for the play action routes. The Colts should match up reasonably well against the receivers (as much as anyone can against the likes of Dez) so there could be pressure on Romo early doors.

11/10 says he or one of his team squeaks first (shouty red man).

I'm also on over 4 total sacks (similar reasoning, BMU) and Terrance Williams over 35.5 yards (feels like a good game for a WR2 and I fancy the Colts today to prove a point that they can perform individually and as a team against good opposition, so the plan B playbook could see more action).

Any of these appeal?
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« Reply #92663 on: December 21, 2014, 04:18:54 PM »

I also like The Ox Ralph.  I backed him with the non bookmaker whilst I can as its money back as a freebie for anytime scorer. 

For the same reasons I also have Giroud/Sanchez. 

I like Arsenal today, this iverpool team I can't see being good enough, I can't see were the goals come from. 
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« Reply #92664 on: December 21, 2014, 04:19:16 PM »

Tighty, interested in your views on the team to commit to first turnover in the Cowboys-Colts game. Murray is back from hand surgery and might not get the mail-carrying duties as heavily as normal. He's not going to be as strong as a pass protector, either, for the play action routes. The Colts should match up reasonably well against the receivers (as much as anyone can against the likes of Dez) so there could be pressure on Romo early doors.

11/10 says he or one of his team squeaks first (shouty red man).

I'm also on over 4 total sacks (similar reasoning, BMU) and Terrance Williams over 35.5 yards (feels like a good game for a WR2 and I fancy the Colts today to prove a point that they can perform individually and as a team against good opposition, so the plan B playbook could see more action).

Any of these appeal?

umm no particular views on turnovers really.

quite like the colts against the cowboys secondary getting 3 points. cowboys notoriously bad home favourites (and don't i know it)

cowboys are missing their right tackle, colts missing right tackle and a guard. cowboys pass rush is anaemic though and luck can scramble with the best of them, probably more than 4 sacks in the game

williams (cowboys not colts) struggles to be featured...only one ball in play and murray (or his replacements) take 30 of the offensive plays, dez 10-15 more, witten 5 more etc etc. the quote should probably be low
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« Reply #92665 on: December 21, 2014, 04:22:53 PM »

Matched bets
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 22 £5.00 £105.00



the bet365 offer. heck knows what 1-2-x to back

i will do the draw with the in play, lets see what we can get on before the game
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« Reply #92666 on: December 21, 2014, 04:30:49 PM »

Don't wait too long Tighty.   
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« Reply #92667 on: December 21, 2014, 04:32:25 PM »

right, out of time

finger in the air...

Liverpool @  9/5
£50.00  Single    21/12/2014 15:58:24    50.00    0.00

bet365 offer (money back etc)

and then they wouldn't take £50 on the draw

Draw @  23/10
£44.44  Single    21/12/2014 16:01:39    44.44
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« Reply #92668 on: December 21, 2014, 04:34:42 PM »

Tighty, interested in your views on the team to commit to first turnover in the Cowboys-Colts game. Murray is back from hand surgery and might not get the mail-carrying duties as heavily as normal. He's not going to be as strong as a pass protector, either, for the play action routes. The Colts should match up reasonably well against the receivers (as much as anyone can against the likes of Dez) so there could be pressure on Romo early doors.

11/10 says he or one of his team squeaks first (shouty red man).

I'm also on over 4 total sacks (similar reasoning, BMU) and Terrance Williams over 35.5 yards (feels like a good game for a WR2 and I fancy the Colts today to prove a point that they can perform individually and as a team against good opposition, so the plan B playbook could see more action).

Any of these appeal?

umm no particular views on turnovers really.

quite like the colts against the cowboys secondary getting 3 points. cowboys notoriously bad home favourites (and don't i know it)

cowboys are missing their right tackle, colts missing right tackle and a guard. cowboys pass rush is anaemic though and luck can scramble with the best of them, probably more than 4 sacks in the game

williams (cowboys not colts) struggles to be featured...only one ball in play and murray (or his replacements) take 30 of the offensive plays, dez 10-15 more, witten 5 more etc etc. the quote should probably be low

Thanks.

I phrased that last part poorly. What I meant was, as I think the Colts match up reasonably against the pass, Romo might need to look to his WR2 to take more targets than normal. Otherwise, it's chuck it to Dez or give it Murray.
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« Reply #92669 on: December 21, 2014, 04:37:01 PM »

Tighty, interested in your views on the team to commit to first turnover in the Cowboys-Colts game. Murray is back from hand surgery and might not get the mail-carrying duties as heavily as normal. He's not going to be as strong as a pass protector, either, for the play action routes. The Colts should match up reasonably well against the receivers (as much as anyone can against the likes of Dez) so there could be pressure on Romo early doors.

11/10 says he or one of his team squeaks first (shouty red man).

I'm also on over 4 total sacks (similar reasoning, BMU) and Terrance Williams over 35.5 yards (feels like a good game for a WR2 and I fancy the Colts today to prove a point that they can perform individually and as a team against good opposition, so the plan B playbook could see more action).

Any of these appeal?

umm no particular views on turnovers really.

quite like the colts against the cowboys secondary getting 3 points. cowboys notoriously bad home favourites (and don't i know it)

cowboys are missing their right tackle, colts missing right tackle and a guard. cowboys pass rush is anaemic though and luck can scramble with the best of them, probably more than 4 sacks in the game

williams (cowboys not colts) struggles to be featured...only one ball in play and murray (or his replacements) take 30 of the offensive plays, dez 10-15 more, witten 5 more etc etc. the quote should probably be low

Thanks.

I phrased that last part poorly. What I meant was, as I think the Colts match up reasonably against the pass, Romo might need to look to his WR2 to take more targets than normal. Otherwise, it's chuck it to Dez or give it Murray.

well vontae davis their top CB matches up well against the pass, and presumably takes bryant, with safety help

the rest less so, so i see where you are coming from. what happened the last few times that teams attempted to take bryant out of it (the eagles didn't bother, strangely) was that cole beasley had a huge day

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By the way, I'm leaving out today
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