Tips for Tikay

[nuros]

Evening

No racing for two days. Its a good thing this isn't hand written, as I have the shakes already.

I know you don't like multiples etc, but I do like a couple of the double related offers up for grabs on the King George/Gold Cup double.

With Ruby not sending out much positive about Champagne Fever, I can't realistically see beyond Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof to win on Friday.

A win for either, at this stage will likely make SC, even shorter vfafor the GC than the current 8-1, and Al Ferof a whole lot shorter.

Bet 653 offer 20-1 on the double for SC, and Billy offer 66-1 for Alf.

Now, we all know that Many Clouds will win the Gold Cup, but it could be that a disgruntled anti Sherwood fan, lasers blinds him on the run in, or Nichols and Mullins do a Golden Freeze and try to knobble him, so it makes sense to have a little cover bet.

Not sure what you can get on with either, but a token tenner on each should give another arrow in the quiver, come Gold Cup day.

God bless Wm Hill, they are as good as gold.

We have a token £10 WIN DOUBLE, Wm Hill, Al Ferof to win the KG & Chelters Gold Cup.



26 Dec 2014 - To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright

Al Ferof @ 66/1

Stake : £10.00


Estimated Returns : £

670.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0001162/F

BET PLACED

I'm being offered 181/1 on Al ferof to win gold cup and king george Vi chase when putting them in manually on wh, have I got sth wrong?

[Marky147]

Evening

No racing for two days. Its a good thing this isn't hand written, as I have the shakes already.

I know you don't like multiples etc, but I do like a couple of the double related offers up for grabs on the King George/Gold Cup double.

With Ruby not sending out much positive about Champagne Fever, I can't realistically see beyond Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof to win on Friday.

A win for either, at this stage will likely make SC, even shorter vfafor the GC than the current 8-1, and Al Ferof a whole lot shorter.

Bet 653 offer 20-1 on the double for SC, and Billy offer 66-1 for Alf.

Now, we all know that Many Clouds will win the Gold Cup, but it could be that a disgruntled anti Sherwood fan, lasers blinds him on the run in, or Nichols and Mullins do a Golden Freeze and try to knobble him, so it makes sense to have a little cover bet.

Not sure what you can get on with either, but a token tenner on each should give another arrow in the quiver, come Gold Cup day.

Thanks Adz. Cheltenham looms, yay.

Dealing first with SC, I eventually found the bet on 365, but.......

They Restricted us to £1.50.

It's below our Minimum Stake these days, but I guess if we saw a £30 note on the pavement, we'd pick it up, so we have invested a whole thirty bob @ 20/1 with B365.

SC to win King George, & Chelters Gold Cup, £1.50 @ 20/1.   

BET PLACED

I've done it for you, Tikay.

I'll send you the money when he wins!

[rfgqqabc]

Related contingency Nuros?

Fired 20 at it with a dream but not sure they'll allow it.

[nuros]

Fair enough well I've placed it let's see, what happens! Either way go Al ferof!

[Tal]

Mr Welker managed four receptions for 30 yards.

We did a win.

[Doobs]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June?  

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point?  

[tikay]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June?  

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point?  

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

[tikay]

Mr Welker managed four receptions for 30 yards.

We did a win.

Ooh, well done.

Tighty will be proud of me for finding such a clever little bet.

Exactly the right amount too - £22 was the Max they would allow me.

[tikay]

Evening

No racing for two days. Its a good thing this isn't hand written, as I have the shakes already.

I know you don't like multiples etc, but I do like a couple of the double related offers up for grabs on the King George/Gold Cup double.

With Ruby not sending out much positive about Champagne Fever, I can't realistically see beyond Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof to win on Friday.

A win for either, at this stage will likely make SC, even shorter vfafor the GC than the current 8-1, and Al Ferof a whole lot shorter.

Bet 653 offer 20-1 on the double for SC, and Billy offer 66-1 for Alf.

Now, we all know that Many Clouds will win the Gold Cup, but it could be that a disgruntled anti Sherwood fan, lasers blinds him on the run in, or Nichols and Mullins do a Golden Freeze and try to knobble him, so it makes sense to have a little cover bet.

Not sure what you can get on with either, but a token tenner on each should give another arrow in the quiver, come Gold Cup day.

Thanks Adz. Cheltenham looms, yay.

Dealing first with SC, I eventually found the bet on 365, but.......

They Restricted us to £1.50.

It's below our Minimum Stake these days, but I guess if we saw a £30 note on the pavement, we'd pick it up, so we have invested a whole thirty bob @ 20/1 with B365.

SC to win King George, & Chelters Gold Cup, £1.50 @ 20/1.   

BET PLACED

I've done it for you, Tikay.

I'll send you the money when he wins!

What a top bloke you are, thank you very much.

£8.50 BOOKED, yes?

TYTYTY.

[Tal]

Mr Welker managed four receptions for 30 yards.

We did a win.

Ooh, well done.

Tighty will be proud of me for finding such a clever little bet.

Exactly the right amount too - £22 was the Max they would allow me.

Mr Welker owns a horse called Undrafted. Have to love its silks:

[tikay]

Evening

No racing for two days. Its a good thing this isn't hand written, as I have the shakes already.

I know you don't like multiples etc, but I do like a couple of the double related offers up for grabs on the King George/Gold Cup double.

With Ruby not sending out much positive about Champagne Fever, I can't realistically see beyond Silviniaco Conti and Al Ferof to win on Friday.

A win for either, at this stage will likely make SC, even shorter vfafor the GC than the current 8-1, and Al Ferof a whole lot shorter.

Bet 653 offer 20-1 on the double for SC, and Billy offer 66-1 for Alf.

Now, we all know that Many Clouds will win the Gold Cup, but it could be that a disgruntled anti Sherwood fan, lasers blinds him on the run in, or Nichols and Mullins do a Golden Freeze and try to knobble him, so it makes sense to have a little cover bet.

Not sure what you can get on with either, but a token tenner on each should give another arrow in the quiver, come Gold Cup day.

God bless Wm Hill, they are as good as gold.

We have a token £10 WIN DOUBLE, Wm Hill, Al Ferof to win the KG & Chelters Gold Cup.



26 Dec 2014 - To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup - Outright

Al Ferof @ 66/1

Stake : £10.00


Estimated Returns : £

670.00



Transaction Reference:

O/0457483/0001162/F

BET PLACED

I'm being offered 181/1 on Al ferof to win gold cup and king george Vi chase when putting them in manually on wh, have I got sth wrong?

No, that is the wrong bet.

It is not a regular "double" in which we back both outcomes at singles prices for a Double.

This is a "SPECIAL", where they actually quote this as a "DOUBLE ONLY".

Go to Wm Hill.com

Then "HORSE RACING"

Then "FUTURE RACES"

Then, near the top, look for this......

To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup

The bet is still available this morning, & the price is 66/1.

[tikay]

Related contingency Nuros?

Fired 20 at it with a dream but not sure they'll allow it.

Adam - same reply as I gave Nurofen.

It is not a regular "double" in which we back both outcomes at singles prices for a Double.

This is a "SPECIAL", where they actually quote this as a "DOUBLE ONLY".

Go to Wm Hill.com

Then "HORSE RACING"

Then "FUTURE RACES"

Then, near the top, look for this......

To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup

The bet is still available this morning, & the price is 66/1.

[Doobs]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June?  

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point?  

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument. 

[tikay]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June? 

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point? 

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument. 

Yes, Fred backs him "blind", & quite rightly so.

Even £300 for 4 or 5 months is a lot, but yeah, it could win us a lot of money, & we could manage £300 on our Main Accounts. I doubt RedShoutyMan would allow us £300, mind. Wm Hill would, & is funded accordingly. 

Fred is now just one month shy of it's 3rd Birthday (late January), & I need to think very hard as to whether things should continue as they are, that's the thing at the back of my mind, in truth, before I commit to more long-term stuff.

[horseplayer]

http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21636505-how-perfectly-legal-heists-racehorse-trainer-and-former-seminarian-made-him?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/only_fools_and_horses