Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Nobody think chelsea are so so short to win the league?
Man City have kompany aguero etc to return in January.

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

A while ago when England played cricket in New Zealand all the matches were drawn because of docile pitches, I think some were drop in ones. Do you know if that is likely to happen for this series against Sri Lanka?

the two test matches are christchurch and wellington (auckland on the rugby ground is always a drop in but not playing there)

the boxing day test in christchurch. first test at the venue for 11 years. not a drop in pitch, only got domestic cricket to go on and it looked decent enough for batting from the scores. seamers picked up wickets not spinners, but that might just be where nz domestic cricket is at for spinners

wellington is seamer friendly. also not a drop in (wellington drop in at the rugby ground, this is at the basin reserve not he rugby ground). basin reserve, wind blows one end to the other, so you need a stock bowler to run up and bowl into a gale, often. doesn't suit spin.

haven't looked at the markets, but without jayawardene you have to look at sri lanka batting technique if it might move around. sangakkara has to be favourite to be top run scorer

[superwomble]

BMU have a special for Boxing Day Premier games - 7/1 for there to be more than 34 goals scored.

There are 10 games. There were 29 goals last year and that included a 5-1 win for Newcastle over Stoke, and a 3-2 win for ManUre at Hull.

I can't see where 34 goals will come from so looks very short to me. Any thoughts?

[tikay]

No doubt Tighty is the cornerstone of Fred.

To continue a builder's analogy....

Click to see full-size image.

Tikay's role is key.

Never mind the bollox, LOVE the brickwork.

I took my City & Guilds Craft Exam in brickwork, & had to construct an Arch with a keystone. Unforch, it collapsed whilst the examiner was examining, & was found to be unmarkable as well as unremarkable.

And so, as I was at a Building College where we were all guaranteed a job in the trade, I got offered the abso dregs, a job as an apprentice Builders Merchant, in Brook Avenue, Wembley Park.

Soon, I knew how many bricks there are in a ton, the BS numbers for cast iron manhole covers, & the ins & outs of P, S & U traps, & salt glazed three quarter section earthenware drainage.

It was at this time, whilst manually unloading 8 ton consignments of bagged cement, (20 x 1cwt bags per ton, 8 tons, = 160) that my life long romance with cement & concrete began.

If only that keystone in my arch had held for 5 more minutes, I could have gone on to great heights, even been a brickie or somesuch. Them's the breaks.

[horseplayer]

The that steve bruce is next to go appeals a bit

His assistant at hull agnew has just left to join Middlesbrough

[Tal]

The that steve bruce is next to go appeals a bit

His assistant at hull agnew has just left to join Middlesbrough

What was the deal with the fallout with Paul McShane, too? Was it over his singing?




But bayyyybee...baybee I knowwww eeeeet....

[BigAdz]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June? 

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point? 

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument. 

Yes, Fred backs him "blind", & quite rightly so.

Even £300 for 4 or 5 months is a lot, but yeah, it could win us a lot of money, & we could manage £300 on our Main Accounts. I doubt RedShoutyMan would allow us £300, mind. Wm Hill would, & is funded accordingly. 

Fred is now just one month shy of it's 3rd Birthday (late January), & I need to think very hard as to whether things should continue as they are, that's the thing at the back of my mind, in truth, before I commit to more long-term stuff.

I would hope this isn't the case.

Much as I take the piss over all the "non sporting" stuff a few here thrive on, there is still as wealth of info here and good people, that would fall away quite quickly, I suspect, were you to leave the thread.

The reality, whether people openly agree or not, is that we all like the general pat on the back, but most especially the Tikay nod of recognition. I'm sure none of us know why, but is probably fact, nonetheless.

The thread is about tips, and its also about you.

I know a couple of very knowledgeable gents who only post BECAUSE of your involvement now.

Lets keep it going, and remember, every family has squabbles. Its part of the fun, even if it doesn't seem so at the time.

Thank you very much Adzy.

Banter? The more the merrier, especially about novelty shizz. Half the pleasure, to me, is the banter, together with the esprit de corps.

A pat on the back from me? I'm very surprised that has much weight, but, when time (& memory) allows, I thank every single person who gives us a winner. In fact, so much so, that when I fail to, some take offence. It's not intentional. Work has been very heavy of late, with UKPC & stuff, my mental faculties are not quite what they were, & I'm trying to spend a little less time on the internet these days. (FAIL).

We accidentally "miss" occasional bets, too - but never, NEVER intentionally. It just happens, Tighty is dead busy with other stuff, so am I.

I do want to keep it going, so does Tighty (who carries all the load), but when it costs me friendships, & places me in really awkward spots, the meat in the sandwich between others, I am not sure I want too much more of that.

We have lost many of our Elders, of course, for a variety of reasons. That's OK, we can cope just fine without them. But it'd be great to see one or two return. I never put any pressure on any of them to return, & they are all good personal friends of mine of long-standing. They all still read Fred of course. For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be very happy to see a few of them return.

On which note, it was good to see redarmi back here recently. I hope he does not take offence, but as to his regular "tips", I'm not terribly fussed either way, but I used to love reading his technical advice, strategy stuff, that sort of thing. It was the "strategy" stuff by the Elders that formed the foundations really, I loved all that. We rarely see it now, though I suppose we have taken most of it on board. Tips tips tips is not really the full works, is it? I like to see the in-depth logic & reasoning.

"x is 5/4, get on" is of no interest to me, none at all. WHY should we get on is the important thing.

Anyway, everything is cool, I maybe need to sort my head out. In some ways, it's been a horrible year for me on Fred, truth to tell. I don't ever intend to be exposed to that again.   

Happy Christmas, every single one of you.

Its very sad to hear it has cost you friendships.

Seems very extreme.

As someone that has been on both ends of some good old BS on here, I can honestly say that not one of those I have tangled with, would I refuse to go and talk to or chat with at a get together. Its a bloody forum for petes sake. It should never lead to that.

FWIW, Before the last forum get together, bobby1 and I used to rub each other up the wrong way, due to the adversarial nature of the internet.

Having met him, I doubt a day has gone by where we haven't spoken/text or whatever, and made each other a good deal of money along the way. I class him as a very good friend(sure he still thinks I'm a dick tho!). All as a result of this place.

Its cyber stuff and shouldn't cost friendships. Totally daft. That said, some people are more stupid stubborn than me.

[Chompy]

Nah, leave Scouso's, not in love with 8-1 as a straightforward punt.

The idea was to have full bank at 9-1, wait for the next few games, then lay back full bank at somewhere around 6 on da machine.

This was more of a trade than a rec, but happy to leave at 8-1, esp with non-bottomless pit available for lay-back purposes.

[Omm]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June? 

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point? 

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument. 

Yes, Fred backs him "blind", & quite rightly so.

Even £300 for 4 or 5 months is a lot, but yeah, it could win us a lot of money, & we could manage £300 on our Main Accounts. I doubt RedShoutyMan would allow us £300, mind. Wm Hill would, & is funded accordingly. 

Fred is now just one month shy of it's 3rd Birthday (late January), & I need to think very hard as to whether things should continue as they are, that's the thing at the back of my mind, in truth, before I commit to more long-term stuff.

I would hope this isn't the case.

Much as I take the piss over all the "non sporting" stuff a few here thrive on, there is still as wealth of info here and good people, that would fall away quite quickly, I suspect, were you to leave the thread.

The reality, whether people openly agree or not, is that we all like the general pat on the back, but most especially the Tikay nod of recognition. I'm sure none of us know why, but is probably fact, nonetheless.

The thread is about tips, and its also about you.

I know a couple of very knowledgeable gents who only post BECAUSE of your involvement now.

Lets keep it going, and remember, every family has squabbles. Its part of the fun, even if it doesn't seem so at the time.

Thank you very much Adzy.

Banter? The more the merrier, especially about novelty shizz. Half the pleasure, to me, is the banter, together with the esprit de corps.

A pat on the back from me? I'm very surprised that has much weight, but, when time (& memory) allows, I thank every single person who gives us a winner. In fact, so much so, that when I fail to, some take offence. It's not intentional. Work has been very heavy of late, with UKPC & stuff, my mental faculties are not quite what they were, & I'm trying to spend a little less time on the internet these days. (FAIL).

We accidentally "miss" occasional bets, too - but never, NEVER intentionally. It just happens, Tighty is dead busy with other stuff, so am I.

I do want to keep it going, so does Tighty (who carries all the load), but when it costs me friendships, & places me in really awkward spots, the meat in the sandwich between others, I am not sure I want too much more of that.

We have lost many of our Elders, of course, for a variety of reasons. That's OK, we can cope just fine without them. But it'd be great to see one or two return. I never put any pressure on any of them to return, & they are all good personal friends of mine of long-standing. They all still read Fred of course. For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be very happy to see a few of them return.

On which note, it was good to see redarmi back here recently. I hope he does not take offence, but as to his regular "tips", I'm not terribly fussed either way, but I used to love reading his technical advice, strategy stuff, that sort of thing. It was the "strategy" stuff by the Elders that formed the foundations really, I loved all that. We rarely see it now, though I suppose we have taken most of it on board. Tips tips tips is not really the full works, is it? I like to see the in-depth logic & reasoning.

"x is 5/4, get on" is of no interest to me, none at all. WHY should we get on is the important thing.

Anyway, everything is cool, I maybe need to sort my head out. In some ways, it's been a horrible year for me on Fred, truth to tell. I don't ever intend to be exposed to that again.   

Happy Christmas, every single one of you.

Its very sad to hear it has cost you friendships.

Seems very extreme.

As someone that has been on both ends of some good old BS on here, I can honestly say that not one of those I have tangled with, would I refuse to go and talk to or chat with at a get together. Its a bloody forum for petes sake. It should never lead to that.

FWIW, Before the last forum get together, bobby1 and I used to rub each other up the wrong way, due to the adversarial nature of the internet.

Having met him, I doubt a day has gone by where we haven't spoken/text or whatever, and made each other a good deal of money along the way. I class him as a very good friend(sure he still thinks I'm a dick tho!). All as a result of this place.

Its cyber stuff and shouldn't cost friendships. Totally daft. That said, some people are more stupid stubborn than me.

Apart from the loss of friendships which seems quite sad, this bit about being a horrible year on fred, nobody needs that, you should be enjoying yourself, particularly at your point in life (no offence intended) and as much as everybody here would hate for you to not be involved or for fred to close down we must all be aware that if it's causing you more harm than good then you must step back for your benefit.

My Mum lost her best friend last week, known her for 40 years, I knew her all my life and she was like a second Mum to me. She was only 67, slipped into a coma due to complications with her diabetes and never woke up, already miss her terribly. It's made me realise that life is far too short and we only get one shot at it, being happy should be a given, looking forward to doing things at different points in the year should be a given, actively doing something to get rid of the bad feeling that comes with the stuff life throws up should be a given (as long as it's within our control). Sorry for rambling but do whatever is right for you Tikay, the life of fred will go on for the rest of us in some form or another, but life is far too short to being having a horrible year. Goodluck with whatever you choose to do, we are all behind you.

[horseplayer]

Good post omm

Sorry to hear your news

[bobby1]

Trying to work out why Liverpool are a similar price to Soton and Spurs for top six, but markedly bigger for top four.

They were impressive yesterday, although Brendan looks like he could do with a holiday, and 9-1 top four looks interesting given what's coming up over Christmas.

They're 4-5 at Burnley, 4-6 home v Swansea and 1-3 home v Leicester. Southampton and Tottenham have much tougher stints.

The 9-1 in a few spots beats the machine and this feels like a good spot for a trade if we fancy it?

Suggest £300 at 9-1 with a view to laying back at shorter in the new year.

Think this is the only one I have not actioned, so I'll send the Hossie Pass across to Tighty to sort in the morning.

£300 on "Reliable" Liverpool, sheesh.

Assuming we can get on, it would cost £2700 to lay this back right now.  Laying off might cost more or less than this in 3 games time.

If we start and end on the machine we start with a shorter price, but at least we don't tie up £3k or more til June?  

We have a trading bank of 6k(?) of which 4k(?) is tied up already.  The price on Liverpool looks like it could be ok, but surely we can't trade it from this start point?  

I actually thought about this in bed last night, in that we back Chompy "blind", & I don't want to give offence, but my real concern is tying up all that money for so long.

We should probably back him blind and I am close to that.  But even if you aren't worried about the death thing, there should be a cost on tying up that money in the long run.  If I asked everyone how much we are likely to make on that 6k, not many will say less than £600,  but that is 10% of the bank.  But if we start at that low point, there is still a cost of 5% to tie up £3k for 6 months.  So we should start this trade assuming it costs us at least £150.  That looks less than the expected profit on the bet to me.

So If you do that the proposal looks bad.   But as a bet you tie up £300 for 6 months, the hurdle to beat is only £15, and I can see how you could make more than 5% on that money.  Ofc £300 may still be too much but that is a different argument.  

Yes, Fred backs him "blind", & quite rightly so.

Even £300 for 4 or 5 months is a lot, but yeah, it could win us a lot of money, & we could manage £300 on our Main Accounts. I doubt RedShoutyMan would allow us £300, mind. Wm Hill would, & is funded accordingly.  

Fred is now just one month shy of it's 3rd Birthday (late January), & I need to think very hard as to whether things should continue as they are, that's the thing at the back of my mind, in truth, before I commit to more long-term stuff.

I would hope this isn't the case.

Much as I take the piss over all the "non sporting" stuff a few here thrive on, there is still as wealth of info here and good people, that would fall away quite quickly, I suspect, were you to leave the thread.

The reality, whether people openly agree or not, is that we all like the general pat on the back, but most especially the Tikay nod of recognition. I'm sure none of us know why, but is probably fact, nonetheless.

The thread is about tips, and its also about you.

I know a couple of very knowledgeable gents who only post BECAUSE of your involvement now.

Lets keep it going, and remember, every family has squabbles. Its part of the fun, even if it doesn't seem so at the time.

Thank you very much Adzy.

Banter? The more the merrier, especially about novelty shizz. Half the pleasure, to me, is the banter, together with the esprit de corps.

A pat on the back from me? I'm very surprised that has much weight, but, when time (& memory) allows, I thank every single person who gives us a winner. In fact, so much so, that when I fail to, some take offence. It's not intentional. Work has been very heavy of late, with UKPC & stuff, my mental faculties are not quite what they were, & I'm trying to spend a little less time on the internet these days. (FAIL).

We accidentally "miss" occasional bets, too - but never, NEVER intentionally. It just happens, Tighty is dead busy with other stuff, so am I.

I do want to keep it going, so does Tighty (who carries all the load), but when it costs me friendships, & places me in really awkward spots, the meat in the sandwich between others, I am not sure I want too much more of that.

We have lost many of our Elders, of course, for a variety of reasons. That's OK, we can cope just fine without them. But it'd be great to see one or two return. I never put any pressure on any of them to return, & they are all good personal friends of mine of long-standing. They all still read Fred of course. For the avoidance of doubt, I'd be very happy to see a few of them return.

On which note, it was good to see redarmi back here recently. I hope he does not take offence, but as to his regular "tips", I'm not terribly fussed either way, but I used to love reading his technical advice, strategy stuff, that sort of thing. It was the "strategy" stuff by the Elders that formed the foundations really, I loved all that. We rarely see it now, though I suppose we have taken most of it on board. Tips tips tips is not really the full works, is it? I like to see the in-depth logic & reasoning.

"x is 5/4, get on" is of no interest to me, none at all. WHY should we get on is the important thing.

Anyway, everything is cool, I maybe need to sort my head out. In some ways, it's been a horrible year for me on Fred, truth to tell. I don't ever intend to be exposed to that again.  

Happy Christmas, every single one of you.

Its very sad to hear it has cost you friendships.

Seems very extreme.

As someone that has been on both ends of some good old BS on here, I can honestly say that not one of those I have tangled with, would I refuse to go and talk to or chat with at a get together. Its a bloody forum for petes sake. It should never lead to that.

FWIW, Before the last forum get together, bobby1 and I used to rub each other up the wrong way, due to the adversarial nature of the internet.

Having met him, I doubt a day has gone by where we haven't spoken/text or whatever, and made each other a good deal of money along the way. I class him as a very good friend(sure he still thinks I'm a dick tho!). All as a result of this place.

Its cyber stuff and shouldn't cost friendships. Totally daft. That said, some people are more stupid stubborn than me.

Do we need to get a room for the next TFT Bash mate? ;o)

There are so many good people posting and helping this thread to run well Tony, just because it doesn't run the same as it did before doesn't mean it isn't valuable to people even if they just like the convo's and the bants (with smiley faces added when appropriate) ;o)

If you decide it takes up too much of your time then it will still run but won't be the same mate, it's a mark of how well loved you are that people actually want to put up selections hoping to add a few more quid to that bulging bank account of yours. I'm sure some people are happy just to nip in follow the picks and have some enjoyment too. It's still all good, just different. If you are thinking of packing it in because it's causing you aggro I think you have to be sure you haven't misread the situation.

Are you are referring to me in some of those posts above? You know my thought's but even if we disagree over some trivial things it is never ever going to make us fall out. I would be sad if you thought it had and tbh it's got nowt to do with me anyway.

We know posting things on here cause prices to shorten, accounts to get restricted and sometimes because they have all backed the same thing at the same time. There isn't a load of value to risk losing accounts or causing prices to be slashed by telling other people to bet the same things tho and a lot of guys seem to have realised that and don't post selections any more. I disagree with what has happened to the thread but it isn't the reason I don't post anything these days and think the number of people that have your interests at heart on here is around 99%. I'm hoping you don't think people are falling out with you because they see things differently but have actually stopped posting for other reasons.

[bobby1]

One other thing mate, if you want to bet the Liverpool suggestion and want to lay it back at a later date but don't want to tie up the funds then I can process the lay back for you and settle up after the season.

[Marky147]

It's below our Minimum Stake these days, but I guess if we saw a £30 note on the pavement, we'd pick it up, so we have invested a whole thirty bob @ 20/1 with B365.

SC to win King George, & Chelters Gold Cup, £1.50 @ 20/1.   

BET PLACED

I've done it for you, Tikay.

I'll send you the money when he wins!

What a top bloke you are, thank you very much.

£8.50 BOOKED, yes?

TYTYTY.

I backed it last week, so you can have the full £10 to make things easier.

[nuros]

Related contingency Nuros?

Fired 20 at it with a dream but not sure they'll allow it.

Adam - same reply as I gave Nurofen.

It is not a regular "double" in which we back both outcomes at singles prices for a Double.

This is a "SPECIAL", where they actually quote this as a "DOUBLE ONLY".

Ah ok thanks Tikay! Have just placed this now, they haven't voided my previous double yet either so I can dream!

Go to Wm Hill.com

Then "HORSE RACING"

Then "FUTURE RACES"

Then, near the top, look for this......

To Win 2014 William Hill King George VI Chase & 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup

The bet is still available this morning, & the price is 66/1.

[Marky147]

Same as that, I've chucked a tenner on both for a sweat