Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Augsburg massively overachieving, Dortmund massively underachieving. I really don't know what to think with them anymore, I don't know how they could get relegated, but they are still there! They looked defensively stronger last week vs Leverkusen (who are a top 3 side) but going forward they were a bit of a mess and gave the ball away too much. Even so, it will be a big ask for FCA to win, perhaps the odds reflect that?

Mainz also drew last night. The top 4 bet is not dead yet, just on life support.

[Doobs]

3.40 at Chelmsford City has a short favourite and looks to be a decent EW race

Apache Storm 14/1 on spotty bot (12/1 general)
Anonymous john 12/1 most firms

Both seem correctly priced and are not fully proven at this class, but with 1/5 odds 3 places paid, think the EW terms can't be ignored. ( or as Arb says "impossible to have a bad EW bet")

recommend £10 EW on both

I think Arb is completely wrong here.  I am not disputing the value as that is plain.  But putting dirty each way bets on horse racing at minor race meetings seems too risky to me.  We have made bets which maybe bet us a quid or two long run.  The downside from an account closure just doesn't seem worth it.  

I would never personally put a dirty each way bet like this through one of my online accounts.  

I think if you are going to bet dirty each way on racing, stick to big meetings or ante post and include some bets on other races that aren't "dirty" or go to a shop.  I also think if you are going to do something that is "dirty" each way, do it in a market where they are less likely to look (eg snooker, tennis etc.).  

All grey lines, and we can only second guess, but definite worth a discussion before we carry on.

[arbboy]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time. 

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts? 

I still think the tories are going to power home and get a majority 11/2 6/1ish looks a big price to me given how bad red ed is.  For the tories to be ahead in the polls already it can only go one way surely and Labour must be close to beat already.  Don't think this will be 6/1 in 2 months time.

Dung - what made you ask the question?  Have you read the 2 page article in the RPost today about the election affecting racing and betting? It's a good read i am currently half way through it.

Think Tories should be 1-2 to win most seats. Been filling my boots for a few months at odds against and gone in today at 9-10 with bwin . Had a small bet on Tories at 6.8 on betfair overall majority but prefer the 4-5 most seats myself.

Nice spot jim.  Anyone find a bet to go with the 9/10 at bwin in a double to get 5 times limits?

[OverTheBorder]

3.40 at Chelmsford City has a short favourite and looks to be a decent EW race

Apache Storm 14/1 on spotty bot (12/1 general)
Anonymous john 12/1 most firms

Both seem correctly priced and are not fully proven at this class, but with 1/5 odds 3 places paid, think the EW terms can't be ignored. ( or as Arb says "impossible to have a bad EW bet")

recommend £10 EW on both

Really unlucky to miss out there! 2 EW will do I guess

[TightEnd]

1st    4 Merdon Castle (IRE)    7/2
2nd    8 Apache Storm    14/1
3rd    1 Anonymous John (IRE) 8/1

a neck and half a length

[bookiebasher]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time. 

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts? 

I still think the tories are going to power home and get a majority 11/2 6/1ish looks a big price to me given how bad red ed is.  For the tories to be ahead in the polls already it can only go one way surely and Labour must be close to beat already.  Don't think this will be 6/1 in 2 months time.

Dung - what made you ask the question?  Have you read the 2 page article in the RPost today about the election affecting racing and betting? It's a good read i am currently half way through it.

Think Tories should be 1-2 to win most seats. Been filling my boots for a few months at odds against and gone in today at 9-10 with bwin . Had a small bet on Tories at 6.8 on betfair overall majority but prefer the 4-5 most seats myself.

Nice spot jim.  Anyone find a bet to go with the 9/10 at bwin in a double to get 5 times limits?

Just looked and their now the worst price , 11-17. Someone must have put £50 on

[TightEnd]

Just checked myself

5/6 unibet/888, only, if anyone wants it

price gone apart from that

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-seats

[arbboy]

It might go against some positions we already have, but I'm starting to see value in a Tory/LibDem coalition at around the 4-1 mark.  Looking at the current projections from Spin (mids)

Tories   283
Labour   279
LibDem   28
UKIP   9
SNP   36

Many doubts about whether SNP actually want a coalition with Labour (and indeed if Labour would want that).  I don't expect UKIP to do as well as this and perhaps 5 of these seats go back to Tories.   The Tories may also experience the "incumbent bounce" in the final month, and current momentum (and press) is definitely against Miliband.

Even with these factors I would be surprised if Tories can get a majority which leaves us with Coalition (or minority I suppose).

If Tories abandon their EU referendum in coalition that will be seen as a big triumph for the Lib Dem grassroots, and there are lots of nice strap lines along the lines of

"5 more years together to finish the job"
"We'll continue to tone down the excess of the Tories as we work with them"

All in all, it seems to me that this scenario plays out a lot more than 20% of the time.  

I think it's about a 3/1 shot.

Thoughts?  

I still think the tories are going to power home and get a majority 11/2 6/1ish looks a big price to me given how bad red ed is.  For the tories to be ahead in the polls already it can only go one way surely and Labour must be close to beat already.  Don't think this will be 6/1 in 2 months time.

Dung - what made you ask the question?  Have you read the 2 page article in the RPost today about the election affecting racing and betting? It's a good read i am currently half way through it.

Think Tories should be 1-2 to win most seats. Been filling my boots for a few months at odds against and gone in today at 9-10 with bwin . Had a small bet on Tories at 6.8 on betfair overall majority but prefer the 4-5 most seats myself.

Nice spot jim.  Anyone find a bet to go with the 9/10 at bwin in a double to get 5 times limits?

Just looked and their now the worst price , 11-17. Someone must have put £50 on

Mrs Bandit 1.01 to have put the £50 on!  She forgot to put the other short priced good thing in the double on the bet slip first to disguise the value in the 9/10 from the loltraders in gib!

[bookiebasher]

Mr Bandit is walking the streets , still trying to find their shop.

[exstream]

Surely articles like the one saying Dortmund should return to winning ways tonight could have/have been made all season and yet they're still bottom. The article does say that in their last game they recorded their worst passing percentage of all season too though.

[KingPush]

Anyone have any tips on the Cricket World Cup? Seems like a lot of bad pricing in the top batsmen market(Sangakkara, Mathews, Amla to name a few). Imran Tahir seems decently priced in the bowlers market as well.

bad pricing in that they are too short or offer value, in your opinion?

Seems like they offer value in my opinion. Tahirs been one of the best spinners in Odis for years and Mathews average over 50 last year and they're both massive longshots according to the odds. Kane Richardson might also be worth a bet at anything over 10s if new Zealand get to the final.

[bergeroo]

Surely articles like the one saying Dortmund should return to winning ways tonight could have/have been made all season and yet they're still bottom. The article does say that in their last game they recorded their worst passing percentage of all season too though.

They were basically playing long ball - in probably the second or third toughest match of the season, it was understandable but wasn't pretty or that effective, they weren't very convincing - but this is where stats fall short, I'm not sure that means much (Remember when Leon Britton was hailed as the best passer in Europe and better than Xavi by this stat?) - It is easy to have a high passs % if you just knock it back and forth to the guy next to you, right? I'm sure they will approach this game differently, that one was more of a must not lose, this is a must win really.

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

I have been looking at the 6 nations markets. The market for top points scorer has thrown up a decent bet. Usually this market would consist of 6 people - the kickers from each side. However there are all sorts of things going on with team selections uncertain and we have 12 people priced up. The best kicker around, Halfpenny, has been talked of losing his place and at the very least he could be subbed early in games. Sexton is missing the first game against Italy, and England have a fly half new to the 6 nations and also could get subbed early in games. The French are just mad as a box of frogs, and Italy will not be competitive enough for this market.

So we are left with Scotlands Greig Laidlaw. Not the best kicker by a long way, and doesn't have much distance. But he is certain of his place, Scotland have 3 home games including Italy and they have a new found expansive game. 2 years ago in this market he finished 2nd, 14 points adrift. There is a lot to like about Laidlaw and he is over priced. He should be shorter than Sexton, who is 8's but we can get Laidlaw at 14-1.

Suggest £20 Laidlaw @ 14-1 with Hills.

[TightEnd]

Done that, think.it is great value

[TightEnd]

06 Feb 2015 - Six Nations 2015 - Top Tournament Points Scorer - Top Points Scorer

Greig Laidlaw @ 14/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
300.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001208/F