Tips for Tikay

[superwomble]

Thanks very much Hector! 

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £448.76

Outstanding Bets £3606.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=19

A profit of £215 yesterday

As we heard Cuevas won ATP Sao Paulo for a profit of £240, in a thriller

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Scotland lost to Wales by 3 points, for a loss of £25

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ongoing positions

in the Rugby, our top points scorer bet Gregg Laidlaw kicked 11 points, and has Italy at home up next to add to his tally

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in the CWC a thriller in picturesque Nelson as Ireland chase down 300 to beat the West Indies, despite conceding 198 runs in their last 20 overs in the field

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Our top bowler bet Sorenson took a wicket, though it was the Irish spinners who excelled

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As an indication of what a rabble the west indies are, here is a typical training session

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

QPR evens to go down.  Now the manager merry go round has stopped for a week or so i just can't get my head round how QPR are evens to go down?  They have appointed a manager with no experience at all from in house who clearly wasn't the chairman's choice for the job.  Their squad is full of overpaid ego maniacs which is never a good recipe for a relegation battle  They have 6 home games (all against teams outside the bottom 8 - Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal, Everton, Newcastle and West Ham) and 7 away games (mainly against their relegation rivals including Hull, Palace, Leicester, Villa and WBA).

There is literally no game left on their schedule where they are shorter than 2/1 to pick up 3 points (at home to Newcastle, Everton and West Ham are their only 'easy' games left).  They will be a 3/1+ dog in all 5 of the relegation 6 pointers on the road.

I appreciate all the above is out there i am just not convinced it is sufficiently built into the even money quote to go down.

Anyone got any thoughts?

In addition to this the 'to finish bottom' market is interesting based on Sportingindex season points quotes.  Leics seem much too short at their general price given how tight the bottom of the market is.  Last price matched on bf for QPR was bigger than 6/1 to finish bottom.  I think coupled with Burnley at 5/2 looks a decent wager.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/to-finish-bottom

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-domestic/premier-league/mm4.uk.meeting.4719890/premier-league-points-2014-2015

[TightEnd]

Any three from 5 to my mind

Leicester, Burnley, QPR, Villa, Hull

I feel there are easy (tactical) changes to make for Sherwood coming in, to help his team create more chances. Particularly this would revolve around going back to the counter-attacking style away from home that produced some results prior to abandoning that approach around November this year

Assuming Vlaar remains fit i think they will be more solid than the others at the back too

so tempted to make it three from 4

I know redarmi was bearish and right to be on Hull early on BE, think that still applies

my own team are good to give away a bad goal every game and don't convert chances

that's two

would be able to argue QPR or Burnley both ways

of all the prices on http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

qpr at evens and especially hull at 5/2 are the two that stand out as "value" compared to taking 4/9 etc about leicester or burnley

[TL900]

wana give me 2/1 on QPR at home to Newcastle and West Ham right now?

Think Hull 5/2 is much better than QPR evens personally.

Leroy Fer huge blow for QPR but I think they got enough to just squeak out of it.

I dont think Sunderland are safe at all.

[arbboy]

wana give me 2/1 on QPR at home to Newcastle right now?

Sure how much you want?  Want 2/1 v Everton as well?  I appreciate you playing the Newcastle on the beach theory by the second last game but equally QPR could already be doomed by then and it is a dead rubber for them as well.

[TL900]

wana give me 2/1 on QPR at home to Newcastle right now?

Sure how much you want?  Want 2/1 v Everton as well?  I appreciate you playing the Newcastle on the beach theory by the second last game but equally QPR could already be doomed by then and it is a dead rubber for them as well.

£100 on Newc and WHU? Dont want Everton and agree they will be more than 2/1 at home to them. Wana escrow or? (im fine not too but more than happy to if u wish)

[arbboy]

wana give me 2/1 on QPR at home to Newcastle right now?

Sure how much you want?  Want 2/1 v Everton as well?  I appreciate you playing the Newcastle on the beach theory by the second last game but equally QPR could already be doomed by then and it is a dead rubber for them as well.

£100 on Newc and WHU? Dont want Everton and agree they will be more than 2/1 at home to them. Wana escrow or? (im fine not too but more than happy to if u wish)

Booked.  No need to send cash now.  Credit fine.

[Tal]

Villa 8/15 to stay up appeal? (£3.65)

2.94/2.98 relegation on betfair.

Really can't see them going down if they attack...which is what Timmy does...and Vlaar stays broadly fit.

[arbboy]

wana give me 2/1 on QPR at home to Newcastle and West Ham right now?

Think Hull 5/2 is much better than QPR evens personally.

Leroy Fer huge blow for QPR but I think they got enough to just squeak out of it.

I dont think Sunderland are safe at all.

Hull pretty sure to have GD advantage as well over the rest of the bottom teams which is another point effectively.  Hull 7 games at home/6 away (including QPR, Burnley and Sunderland at home they will be no bigger than 6/5 for any of these).  Sunderland 6 home games/7 away (including WBA, Villa, Palace and Leics all at home)

Villa 7 home/6 away (including WBA, Burnley and QPR all at home) downside is very poor GD -22.

Burnley have similar run in to QPR 6 home/7 away only one 'easy' game at home to Leics.  The rest of their schedule looks as brutal as QPR.

The more you look at the schedules the harder it is to see where QPR are going to pick up the points from to survive being on the 'wrong' end home/away of so many relegation 6 pointers.  

[TL900]

wana give me 2/1 on QPR at home to Newcastle right now?

Sure how much you want?  Want 2/1 v Everton as well?  I appreciate you playing the Newcastle on the beach theory by the second last game but equally QPR could already be doomed by then and it is a dead rubber for them as well.

£100 on Newc and WHU? Dont want Everton and agree they will be more than 2/1 at home to them. Wana escrow or? (im fine not too but more than happy to if u wish)

Booked.  No need to send cash now.  Credit fine.

OK gl

[arbboy]

Villa 8/15 to stay up appeal? (£3.65)

2.94/2.98 relegation on betfair.

Really can't see them going down if they attack...which is what Timmy does...and Vlaar stays broadly fit.

Lot of value in those 'to stay up' markets - ie the inverse of the relegation prices for each firm.  VC were offering 1/100 Stoke to stay up until the other day.

[McGlashan]

I'm not sure where Fred left off with Juve to qualify vs Dortmund http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/juventus-v-dortmund/to-qualify

The first leg is a week away and 10/11 on the high street won't last long as Juve are trading below that on the machine.   

[TightEnd]

I'm not sure where Fred left off with Juve to qualify vs Dortmund http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/juventus-v-dortmund/to-qualify

The first leg is a week away and 10/11 on the high street won't last long as Juve are trading below that on the machine.   

it was mentioned i think when backing against dortmund in the bundesliga was recommended

(coincidentally, they've won a couple of games recently)

we didn't do the Juve bet then

assuming it is still something we want to do (looking for opinions), what sort of strength of conviction is there? (to allow me to size the bet)

[McGlashan]

I'm not sure where Fred left off with Juve to qualify vs Dortmund http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/juventus-v-dortmund/to-qualify

The first leg is a week away and 10/11 on the high street won't last long as Juve are trading below that on the machine.   

it was mentioned i think when backing against dortmund in the bundesliga was recommended

(coincidentally, they've won a couple of games recently)

we didn't do the Juve bet then

assuming it is still something we want to do (looking for opinions), what sort of strength of conviction is there? (to allow me to size the bet)

I've no strong opinion on it myself. Arbboy liked it, and it beats Betfair, so I've had a bet.