Tips for Tikay

[Woodsey]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

Read the last two pages of the thread.

You will be getting 6/16 about the place part which is it 1/5 to win.

Best value bet you'll have.

Its 11/10 currently on laddies, is there an special offer in the morning or summat mate?

[Marky147]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

Read the last two pages of the thread.

You will be getting 6/16 about the place part which is it 1/5 to win.

Best value bet you'll have.

Its 11/10 currently on laddies, is there an special offer in the morning or summat mate?

Think they'll go back out at 9am, for about 15minutes.

[Woodsey]

Ok I'm lazy to scour this thread and other threads for the best info

I rarely bet on online sites so can get decent bets on most.

If I was willing to bet £1k this week on either 1 horse or over several races, where should I lump it?

Cheers

Have £500 ew on Faugheen at 6/4 with Ladbrokes at 9am tomorrow morning.

Ok I know nothing about horse racing, but doesn't 6/4 seem a bit short for EW? Like I say I have no idea...

Read the last two pages of the thread.

You will be getting 6/16 about the place part which is it 1/5 to win.

Best value bet you'll have.

Its 11/10 currently on laddies, is there an special offer in the morning or summat mate?

Think they'll go back out at 9am, for about 15minutes.

Ok cheers, might be driving then but we will see...

[Larry David]

For me I don't take these prices,rarely take any odds shorter than 5/2 if there isn't a hedge,just the way I operate.  Backing 1/3 even if the true price is 1/5 doesn't sit well with me one bit, £300x10 of this type of bet at 1/3,3k outlay, you need 8 winning bets from 10 to break even,quick way to the poor house in my opinion.  Just not for me even if 1/3 looks value on a 1/5 chance

[arbboy]

For me I don't take these prices,rarely take any odds shorter than 5/2 if there isn't a hedge,just the way I operate.  Backing 1/3 even if the true price is 1/5 doesn't sit well with me one bit, £300x10 of this type of bet at 1/3,3k outlay, you need 8 winning bets from 10 to break even,quick way to the poor house in my opinion.  Just not for me even if 1/3 looks value on a 1/5 chance

Why don't you lay them then?  Must be the quick way to the rich house if backing them if the quick way to the poor house?

[Larry David]

Placing an e/w treble or greater you are compounding the overbroke.  Big difference in my opinion.  Over the long haul backing bad e/w doubles/trebles will make profit long term compounding the odds.

Sure they will but so will my bets as singles.  in a double or a treble you still have the same amount running onto each leg as a single then onto another single then onto another single.  By betting singles you don't multiple the negative ev on the win part of the multiple which you have conveniently forgotten as part of your analysis.

Fair point but the aim of a bad e/w treble is to get the place part,I basically forget about the win part and if it comes up BONUS.  Just different ways to skin a cat,not completely disagreeing with you. Have other examples but that is for another debate,too tired.  Nothing wrong with different opinions, more of this the better.

[Larry David]

For me I don't take these prices,rarely take any odds shorter than 5/2 if there isn't a hedge,just the way I operate.  Backing 1/3 even if the true price is 1/5 doesn't sit well with me one bit, £300x10 of this type of bet at 1/3,3k outlay, you need 8 winning bets from 10 to break even,quick way to the poor house in my opinion.  Just not for me even if 1/3 looks value on a 1/5 chance

Why don't you lay them then?  Must be the quick way to the rich house if backing them if the quick way to the poor house?

I do,lay plenty of 1/3 and shorter.  Rather be a layer than backer at these odds

[arbboy]

For me I don't take these prices,rarely take any odds shorter than 5/2 if there isn't a hedge,just the way I operate.  Backing 1/3 even if the true price is 1/5 doesn't sit well with me one bit, £300x10 of this type of bet at 1/3,3k outlay, you need 8 winning bets from 10 to break even,quick way to the poor house in my opinion.  Just not for me even if 1/3 looks value on a 1/5 chance

Why don't you lay them then?  Must be the quick way to the rich house if backing them if the quick way to the poor house?

I do,lay plenty of 1/3 and shorter.  Rather be a layer than backer at these odds

Ok but that wasn't my question.  I asked if you would lay 1/3 about a 1/5 shot.  Not randomly laying 1/3 shots or backing the other side at 3/1 effectively.  What is the significance of something having to be 5/2 to bet it just out of interest?  Why is the cut off point 5/2?  Why not 10/1, evens, 1/3?  I find it hard to understand why serious punters have this cut off point for having bets and not having them?  It always interests me their thinking.  You hear so many people say 'i never back odds on' etc etc.   Hardly anyone ever says the correct answer 'i only bet when i have a 2/3/4/5%+ edge no matter what the price is' depending on their risk profile.

Would you back yourself at 1/1000 to wake up tomorrow morning?

[Larry David]

Arbboy.  Would you be confident winning 8/10?

[arbboy]

Arbboy.  Would you be confident winning 8/10?

Course i would i make a living laying dogs at 3/1 which i make 5/1 shots day in day out.  It is indentical to backing 1/3 shots which should be 1/5.  I will win 10 out of 12 events which are 1/5 why wouldn't i expect to win 8 out of 10 in that spot over the long term?  If i have 3 grand to win a grand on each 1/5 shot at 1/3 i will win £10k and lose £6k over the 12 bets.  I win £4k on a total turnover of £36k = 11.1% roi.  Sounds pretty sexy to me.  I feel for you laying that long term and thinking you will ever win.  If you ever fancy accommodating me just pm me.  We can start tomrorow i will have £3k or £300 at 1/3 on Faugheen placing tomorrow if you want as you love laying 1/5 shots at 1/3 because 8 out of 10 are needed to show a profit.  Let me know.  Happy to take 1/3 about any tight 1/5 shot on bf on any market/sport.  Fancy doing a 50 runner experiment for real money?  As you can tell i am confident not sure how confident you are though when it actually comes to laying 1/5 shots at 1/3.  I am more interested in how you think you are going to turn a profit for yourself laying 1/5 shots at 1/3 tbh.

[Larry David]

Assuming these 1/5 shots are really 1/5 shots?

I will reply to these posts,just bit busy.

Just quick question,do you only arb?

[arbboy]

Assuming these 1/5 shots are really 1/5 shots?

I will reply to these posts,just bit busy.

Just quick question,do you only arb?

As I stated before I hardly ever arb nowadays. I was a full time arber until 2009 then I stopped and just bet/lay now.most 1/5 shots on bf are more likely to be more likely to win than the odds suggest if anything because of the fav/longshot bias. Plus in a lot of markets, esp horse place markets in bad ew races where arbers are artificially keeping the price higher than it should be on betfair. I would be amazed if faugheens true place price tomorrow isn't shorter than 1/6. Only the arbers will be keeping the place price where it currently is at 1/5 giving away their ew value the firms have given them nearly 1/3 or 2/7 on so they are very happy to take their risk free cash.

Without these arbers there would be a lot less 'supply' willing to feed the demand to back it place only and the price would, be a lot shorter

[Larry David]

I will get back to you on them questions.  This true price can be a tricky business, when you say you lay/back at prices that you think are incorrect, is that not saying you know more than the market??

[Larry David]

5% of my gambling involves an opinion on prices,if that. The rest is taken care of by numbers and a strike rate that allows me a boat load of losing bets.

Will reply tomorrow

[arbboy]

I will get back to you on them questions.  This true price can be a tricky business, when you say you lay/back at prices that you think are incorrect, is that not saying you know more than the market??

Ok I assume you are not laying me 1/3 on faugheen placing tomorrow then? It would save me having to waste tying up cash on the win part of the bet if I can get place only at the same price because 8 out of 10 can't win. Let me know. Off to bed now busy day tomorrow.