Tips for Tikay

[Larry David]

Fair point, I should have asked a question about the reasoning rather than 'is this some kind of joke', going down this road.  

I can't say I have seen that show before.

[Tonibell]

yeah we know the standard method  

The debate we are having atm is what to do with large free bets that the books won't accept at long odds and whether it is worth taking a shorter odds arb to convert 85% of the bet into cash.  

Sorry. So this is about utility function/time value of money: subjective criteria? I accept I may have got hold of the wrong stick here, never mind ends.

[tikay]

free bet "hypothetical" question

The agreed method to get value from free bets is to find a longish price that is quite close to the best price.  But as we know these can sometimes be a bit difficult to find.

If you find a pretty big arb at a low price, whats the best way to take advantage?  Just take the guaranteed profit or gamble for a bit more equity?

egs free bet on at 3-1 and can be laid at 5/2

If you do back £10 at 3-1 and lay at 5/2, you get £5 if the selection wins and £10 if it loses.  If we assume that it wins 30% of the time that's 70% of £10 + 30% of £5 = £8.50 equity from the £10 bet.  However, we are guaranteed £5.

If we decide to lay for a stake of £12, we win nothing if it wins but £12 if it loses.  So only £8.40 equity with no guarantee

If we lay to a stake of £6, we win £15 if it wins and £6 if it loses.  That's  £8.70 equity with £6 guarantee.

Also obv you could just let the bet run which would on the face of it be £9 equity, but no guaranteed return.

(nb commission would be deducted from the exchange side but just discussing the general principle)

Anyone have thoughts Doobs?  Arbhoy?

Huh?

So you are spurning my advice?

[tikay]

For Tighty.

This e-Mail from BMU.

Get spinning.





10 Bonus Spins In Your Account Now



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[TightEnd]

For Tighty.

This e-Mail from BMU.

Get spinning.





10 Bonus Spins In Your Account Now



With Cheltenham fever sweeping the country, we’re feeling generous – so we’ve credited you with 10 bonus spins for use on our hugely popular slot, Gonzo’s Quest!* You’re all set for 10 spins on the house, Tony - enjoy your bonus

these 10 spins returned 59 pence

[BorntoBubble]

Tikay, retirement moves ever closer!

[tikay]

Tikay, retirement moves ever closer!

59p, incred.

Not being rude, but I think he's useless at spins, we need a spin Elder itt.

[Karabiner]

Tikay, retirement moves ever closer!

59p, incred.

Not being rude, but I think he's useless at spins, we need a spin Elder itt.

Stu"StuartHopkin"Hopkin  is unquestionably a world-class candidate for "Spin Elder".

[Doobs]

Best use of free bets has been answered before. I know this because I saved it. Can't remember who it was though.

there are so many easy spots to convert free bets into cash if u willing to tie up the cash laying them at the same price or slightly under on bf.  Fred shouldn't ever be taking under 20/1 really for a free bet.  Golfers every week are available to back and lay at the same price on bf as with firms.  It convents the free bets into actual cash with 95%+ conversion rate without the worry of variance.

(Pretty sure it was Arbboy).

yeah we know the standard method  

The debate we are having atm is what to do with large free bets that the books won't accept at long odds and whether it is worth taking a shorter odds arb to convert 85% of the bet into cash.  Arbhoy's golf method actually converts about to about 90% equity after commission, but you have to find the good price at your free bet bookie AND they have to accept the bet - probably ok for £25 but a bit more difficult for £50 or £100.

I don't think there is much of an issue getting rid of free bets at Cheltenham.  If you are getting restricted on £100, then you probably don't qualify for the free bet anyway.  Not that I am likely to get £100 free bets anytime soon. 

[DropTheHammer]

Well, I guess I 'win' on Gonzo's Top Trumps, and I only have to wager £80 in the next few days to release the £2!

Click to see full-size image.

[Peter-27]

I do think Lewis Hamilton at 11/10 is a very good bet in the Aussie Grand Prix.

He was 11-5 vs Rosberg last year, and was even more dominant if you discount the races where either had no chance.  I'd also suggest that Lewis seemed more unlucky to me too.

I don't accept the Nicole factor, and think he won last year because he was the best driver in the best car.  He didn't win the year before as his car didn't have the race pace and not because he was lonely and heartbroken.

If we just assume last year continues then 11/10 looks good, but if anything the cars look more dominant this year and it does look a 2 horse race for Australia.  I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Lewis should win twice as many races as Nico, and if we assume that 10% of the time neither win, I'd put the prices as 4/6 Hamilton, 9/4 Rosberg, 9/1 any other.  So I don't think the Rosberg price is far wrong, but Hamilton seems a great bet at 11/10.  He was nothing like that price to win races at the end of last season.

Suggest £50 at 11/10 Lewis Hamilton Australian Grand Prix.

Having analysed a lot of data, I'm certain that "the Nicole factor" does exist. Lewis is about a tenth and a half per lap quicker when he is happy in his personal life - and that's why I tip Rosberg to triumph over the course of the season. Bottom line is that Lewis lets his emotions get to him, Nico doesn't.

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

Will post again in 10-20 mins or so, got some more bet suggestions!

[Doobs]

I do think Lewis Hamilton at 11/10 is a very good bet in the Aussie Grand Prix.

He was 11-5 vs Rosberg last year, and was even more dominant if you discount the races where either had no chance.  I'd also suggest that Lewis seemed more unlucky to me too.

I don't accept the Nicole factor, and think he won last year because he was the best driver in the best car.  He didn't win the year before as his car didn't have the race pace and not because he was lonely and heartbroken.

If we just assume last year continues then 11/10 looks good, but if anything the cars look more dominant this year and it does look a 2 horse race for Australia.  I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Lewis should win twice as many races as Nico, and if we assume that 10% of the time neither win, I'd put the prices as 4/6 Hamilton, 9/4 Rosberg, 9/1 any other.  So I don't think the Rosberg price is far wrong, but Hamilton seems a great bet at 11/10.  He was nothing like that price to win races at the end of last season.

Suggest £50 at 11/10 Lewis Hamilton Australian Grand Prix.

Having analysed a lot of data, I'm certain that "the Nicole factor" does exist. Lewis is about a tenth and a half per lap quicker when he is happy in his personal life - and that's why I tip Rosberg to triumph over the course of the season. Bottom line is that Lewis lets his emotions get to him, Nico doesn't.

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

Will post again in 10-20 mins or so, got some more bet suggestions!

To measure happy lewis vs sad lewis, wouldn't you need happy Lewis and sad Lewis on the same track on the same day?  Otherwise you would need to adjust for different tracks, conditions, car performance on different days and compare them to those a few months/years earlier when Lewis was sad and the not so sad Lewis of last year. And where do we find the Lewis moodometer (presumably very sensitive as Tikay has him at mardybum 100% of the time) and his current relationship status as the season goes on.  Presumably we are adjusting for every time he has a fling with a pit girl?  This all sounds very interesting.

I like a good pile of stats, maybe you could post all the stats in the maths in betting thread?

[DropTheHammer]

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

I just don't get how anything above evens can be value when one of them is not guaranteed to win? Anything can happen in a single race - crashes/safety cars, weather, mechanical failure (which you allude to above). I love your longer-odds F1 bets Peter but I just don't see how 11/10 can be value in something which isn't a two-horse race...?

[Doobs]

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

I just don't get how anything above evens can be value when one of them is not guaranteed to win? Anything can happen in a single race - crashes/safety cars, weather, mechanical failure (which you allude to above). I love your longer-odds F1 bets Peter but I just don't see how 11/10 can be value in something which isn't a two-horse race...?

I would happily take 11/10 on a Mercedes victory and you'd have to be mad to lay it.  I don't think it is as simple as saying that Nico and Lewis are the only two that can win.  I guess one of them wins thsi weekend's race somewhere between 85% and 90% of the time with the cars they have now.

[tikay]

A thoroughly horrible match tonight between Chelsea and PSG, with more bad tempered and spiteful cheating than enough.

Dreadful to watch, and nothing to admire.