Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Having played against 10 men for over an hour, Chelsea now need to score within the next 7 minutes to avoid a Champions League exit.

[Larry David]

Matched at 1/25 to qualify

[Karabiner]

A thoroughly horrible match tonight between Chelsea and PSG, with more bad tempered and spiteful cheating than enough.

Dreadful to watch, and nothing to admire.

Well nothing to admire apart from chelskum and the despicable maureen getting stuffed by karma

[Peter-27]

Have to say, I'm very disappointed with the range of pre-season markets this year - was much better last season. Not sure why that is ..

Anyway, one more pre-season bet:

Marcus Ericsson - To Finish At Least 1 GP In Top 8 During The Season Betting Odds: Yes at 16/11 with 888 and Unibet. The Sauber didn't look horrendous in pre-season testing - they have definitely taken a step forward compared to last season, would be surprised if this doesn't happen at least once this year. It's even more likely at the start of the season with McLaren and Force India still to get up to pace. Suggest £20-£30.

As for Australian GP bets, found A LOT of value spots:

Bwin   - Australian GP - Podium Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 16/1 - £ 5.00 - Quick driver, now in a half decent car, 16/1 is just too high when Ricciardo is 7/2!
Stan James    - Australian GP - Points Finish - Max Verstappen - 3/1 - £ 10.00*** - Toro Rosso should be fighting for points this race, Verstappen looked strong in testing.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Top Six Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 2/1 - £ 10.00*** - Same as bet #1.
Stan James    - Australian GP - Practice One Winner - Valtteri Bottas - 18/1 - £ 5.00 - 18/1 is too high given that Mercedes may well not want to "show their hand" in FP1.
Bwin   - Australian GP - McLaren Total Finishers - 0 - 45/17 - £ 20.00*** - Extremely unreliable in pre-season testing, this price is mad.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Force India Total Finishers - 2 - 19/20 - £ 15.00 - Bullet proof. Should happen if Nico & Sergio avoid a crash.

I put *** next to the top three, just in case you didn't want to invest too much money. For the Stan James ones (I know TFT can't get on there), check oddschecker - sometimes there were equivalent prices available elsewhere.

Additionally, there is an interesting bet that I personally haven't placed - but if you have a big balance, you should get on it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/mclaren-double-points-finish - NO at 1/4!! Low price, but still FAR too high. McLaren is off the pace and unreliable. This should be more like 1/10. Would suggest a lump here!

[Larry David]

A lump at 1/4    how much would you recommend, you have advised a stake for the other selections,just wondered what the stake would be for this 1/4?

[T_Mar]

I do think Lewis Hamilton at 11/10 is a very good bet in the Aussie Grand Prix.

He was 11-5 vs Rosberg last year, and was even more dominant if you discount the races where either had no chance.  I'd also suggest that Lewis seemed more unlucky to me too.

I don't accept the Nicole factor, and think he won last year because he was the best driver in the best car.  He didn't win the year before as his car didn't have the race pace and not because he was lonely and heartbroken.

If we just assume last year continues then 11/10 looks good, but if anything the cars look more dominant this year and it does look a 2 horse race for Australia.  I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Lewis should win twice as many races as Nico, and if we assume that 10% of the time neither win, I'd put the prices as 4/6 Hamilton, 9/4 Rosberg, 9/1 any other.  So I don't think the Rosberg price is far wrong, but Hamilton seems a great bet at 11/10.  He was nothing like that price to win races at the end of last season.

Suggest £50 at 11/10 Lewis Hamilton Australian Grand Prix.

Having analysed a lot of data, I'm certain that "the Nicole factor" does exist. Lewis is about a tenth and a half per lap quicker when he is happy in his personal life - and that's why I tip Rosberg to triumph over the course of the season. Bottom line is that Lewis lets his emotions get to him, Nico doesn't.

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

Will post again in 10-20 mins or so, got some more bet suggestions!

To measure happy lewis vs sad lewis, wouldn't you need happy Lewis and sad Lewis on the same track on the same day?  Otherwise you would need to adjust for different tracks, conditions, car performance on different days and compare them to those a few months/years earlier when Lewis was sad and the not so sad Lewis of last year. And where do we find the Lewis moodometer (presumably very sensitive as Tikay has him at mardybum 100% of the time) and his current relationship status as the season goes on.  Presumably we are adjusting for every time he has a fling with a pit girl?  This all sounds very interesting.

I like a good pile of stats, maybe you could post all the stats in the maths in betting thread?

Pit girl adjustments ftw, great angle

[Marky147]

A lump at 1/4    how much would you recommend, you have advised a stake for the other selections,just wondered what the stake would be for this 1/4?

[Larry David]

good luck with that one.

[tikay]

A lump at 1/4    how much would you recommend, you have advised a stake for the other selections,just wondered what the stake would be for this 1/4?

Peter is very profitable, but he prefers to bet small, and is uncomfortable suggesting large stakes for others to risk their money.

[Peter-27]

I do think Lewis Hamilton at 11/10 is a very good bet in the Aussie Grand Prix.

He was 11-5 vs Rosberg last year, and was even more dominant if you discount the races where either had no chance.  I'd also suggest that Lewis seemed more unlucky to me too.

I don't accept the Nicole factor, and think he won last year because he was the best driver in the best car.  He didn't win the year before as his car didn't have the race pace and not because he was lonely and heartbroken.

If we just assume last year continues then 11/10 looks good, but if anything the cars look more dominant this year and it does look a 2 horse race for Australia.  I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest Lewis should win twice as many races as Nico, and if we assume that 10% of the time neither win, I'd put the prices as 4/6 Hamilton, 9/4 Rosberg, 9/1 any other.  So I don't think the Rosberg price is far wrong, but Hamilton seems a great bet at 11/10.  He was nothing like that price to win races at the end of last season.

Suggest £50 at 11/10 Lewis Hamilton Australian Grand Prix.

Having analysed a lot of data, I'm certain that "the Nicole factor" does exist. Lewis is about a tenth and a half per lap quicker when he is happy in his personal life - and that's why I tip Rosberg to triumph over the course of the season. Bottom line is that Lewis lets his emotions get to him, Nico doesn't.

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

Will post again in 10-20 mins or so, got some more bet suggestions!

To measure happy lewis vs sad lewis, wouldn't you need happy Lewis and sad Lewis on the same track on the same day?  Otherwise you would need to adjust for different tracks, conditions, car performance on different days and compare them to those a few months/years earlier when Lewis was sad and the not so sad Lewis of last year. And where do we find the Lewis moodometer (presumably very sensitive as Tikay has him at mardybum 100% of the time) and his current relationship status as the season goes on.  Presumably we are adjusting for every time he has a fling with a pit girl?  This all sounds very interesting.

I like a good pile of stats, maybe you could post all the stats in the maths in betting thread?

Like always in F1, it is hard to conclusively make any accurate statement because their are too many variables such as weather, temperatures, mechanical performance, and yes, even driver mood.

However, Lewis is a very emotional person, he is someone who wears his heart on his sleeve and you can usually tell when he's particularly happy or "down in the dumps". Quite simply, there is correlation between Lewis being unhappy and being off the pace (slower than you would expect him to be, compared to his team mate or his previous lap times in other sessions).

Having said that, if the Mercedes cars are reliable this weekend, the race win is between Lewis and Nico - no question. Therefore anything above evens is value - and this is a good bet. I was going to suggest Nico to win at the better price, but either way it's a good position :-) Wouldn't recommend betting on both together, just in case they suffer brain fade and crash into each other or something!

I just don't get how anything above evens can be value when one of them is not guaranteed to win? Anything can happen in a single race - crashes/safety cars, weather, mechanical failure (which you allude to above). I love your longer-odds F1 bets Peter but I just don't see how 11/10 can be value in something which isn't a two-horse race...?

I don't really have an answer for this. Mathematically, you're right - and as a logical thinker, I concur. That being said, I do think that the bookies have gone too high at 11/10 so my recommendation stands. I guess I believe the threat of the other teams to be so negligible that I determine 11/10 to be value. If the race was run 100 times, I would expect Mercedes to win 96-97 times - make of that what you will

A lump at 1/4    how much would you recommend, you have advised a stake for the other selections,just wondered what the stake would be for this 1/4?

I guess this depends on your financial situation? Bet sizing is something I have always struggled with, and I've been nothing but open about this in the past. I guess it's about knowing that every bet has a risk, and that you should ensure it is not a complete disaster for your bank balance should the bet lose. I'm sure you know this already though.

Interested to get some thoughts on how you guys determine your bet size?

[Peter-27]

A lump at 1/4    how much would you recommend, you have advised a stake for the other selections,just wondered what the stake would be for this 1/4?

Peter is very profitable, but he prefers to bet small, and is uncomfortable suggesting large stakes for others to risk their money.

Ha, we've never met but you know me very well! 

[Larry David]

No, I just want to know the recommended staking, lets say 1pt is the recommended staking for lewis hamilton, what would you recommend for 1/4 shot. 

[Larry David]

Sorry Peter, I have no intention of backing the 1/4, just wanted to see how you would run this kind of bet alongside the other selections.

[tikay]

A lump at 1/4    how much would you recommend, you have advised a stake for the other selections,just wondered what the stake would be for this 1/4?

Peter is very profitable, but he prefers to bet small, and is uncomfortable suggesting large stakes for others to risk their money.

Ha, we've never met but you know me very well! 

That's my job - you are from Next Door. 

[Larry David]

I guess this depends on your financial situation? Bet sizing is something I have always struggled with, and I've been nothing but open about this in the past. I guess it's about knowing that every bet has a risk, and that you should ensure it is not a complete disaster for your bank balance should the bet lose. I'm sure you know this already though.

Interested to get some thoughts on how you guys determine your bet size?

Level stakes for a lot of mine, then you have to be careful you aren't subsidizing silly bets with money made from thing you know are working well.  Very difficult to get it right.