Tips for Tikay

[Bazzaboy]

Kovalev v Pascal

I like Pascal by decision at 9/1.

No doubt about it Kovalev is a big puncher, however I see Pascal fighting a smart fight with lots of movement. This will frustrate Kovalev, chasing Pascal round the ring for 12 rounds throwing at air... Pascal will throw punches in bursts with his un orthodox style, he has a proven chin after going toe to toe with Froch a number of years ago.

Pascal being the home fighter in Montreal where not many travelling fighters get a decision, I think Kovalev can only win by knocking Pascal out. The reward for Montreal and the local boxing fans should Pascal win would be a unification fight against who other than Montreals Adonis Stevenson. 2 hometown fighters fighting to unify the division.

The Kovalev v Stevenson fight is a lot less likely to happen with Stevenson signing with Al Haymon and Showtime and Kovalev working with HBO. The Mayweather v Pacman is a one off, I don't see HBO and Showtime making this a regular business move.

Being a huge boxing fan and seeing how corrupt it can be I see an edge in Pascal getting the decision should he stay on his feet for the 12 rounds.

Welcome to the thread. The problem is Pascal has to actually win some rounds to get a chance of a decision and since Kovalev stepped up to world level he has won just about every minute of every round. Pascal is a good fighter but not a great fighter and he may we'll make it tougher for Kovalev than any of his recent opponents but I struggle to see how he wins enough rounds to even give himself a shot at a hometown decision. I've backed Kovalev fwiw.

[Doobs]

Don't know why but coral are 14/1 McKinley right now in the 4.40.  I was hoping for 12/1.  Gogogo 25 e/w if we can

Edit it is only 4 places with them but Betfair only 11 right now.

Silvianico Conti 11/2 right now too

[TightEnd]

Don't know why but coral are 14/1 McKinley right now in the 4.40.  I was hoping for 12/1.  Gogogo 25 e/w if we can

Edit it is only 4 places with them but Betfair only 11 right now.

Silvianico Conti 11/2 right now too

think i was half an hour too late for these, sorry. 9/1 and 9/2 now, guess they have been acconmodated



the weather

5mm overnight and not a lot more forecast?

[TightEnd]

Really like Value at Risk in the potato race tomorrow. The yard, the step up in trip, the ground coming softer won't hurt, and if I'm being honest, the dope angle, are all positives and there's 12-1 available if anyone can get you on with PP. Don't like the place terms though. Anyone likely to go four places in the morning? Want to suggest Fred's 1pt bet ew at 10s or over if they do.

first things first

the potato race?

at least i had to only get to the third race to find the horse!

1pt e/w ish....

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
3m Novice Hurdle
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3    Value At Risk    10/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 145.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 145.00

[TightEnd]

mickyp is reading

come on Mr Paterson, my anticipation is high...!

[TightEnd]

Evening.

Been a rather good festival so far hasn't it?!

Thought I might chuck a few at you for tomorrow.

Keen on Hargam in the Triumph, as Marky said, for a while now, and hope the rains stays away. Then its needs to come down in biblical proportions before the Gold Cup!


I have positions on Martello and Blaklion in the next, but the Irish novices are killing us so, I am hopeful rather than confident.

A few people here have PM and Text me about Cheltanian in the County. Brooky had a torrid time this week with some moderate fare, but this ex winner of the bumper has a knocking chance in the county, and after a good run in the Betfair, is going in with a form chance, as well as being Dickie J's best chance of the week by his own admission. The Irish have a great record in this though and Quick Jack has been heavily punted. I quite like the chances of Hawk High, who looks ready to run well at a decent price.
I can seeDormello Mio running well,() I mentioned Nichols novice hurdlers on the Chelt thread and hopefully a few picked up on that in the FW . This has had a wind op and at 33-1 you don't need to go mad to find out.

We have a 20-1 position on Conti in the GC, but I think everyone knows how keen I am on Many Clouds. I fear his chance is gone if it doesn't rain though. I think Djakadam is way too short now. I have backed him a few times, but I'm not sure he was as impressive in the Thyestees as everyone makes out, and before that he has been all promise. It looks a deep race to me, with no world beaters, but lots of very solid horses he has to progress to, and past, to win.

I like Shoreacres in the Foxhunters, and can't see how its 33-1 vs the 4-1 of Paint the Clouds, if you watch the tenderly ridden second in the H&H to PTC. He has experience of Chelts and finished 4th in the Bumper many years ago, but for a 12 year old has scant mileage on the clock. The doris on top worries me, but thats built into the price, I suppose.

To continue the Nichols novice theme, I really like Le Mercurey in the Martin Pipe race.

Finally, biggest bet of the week in the last on Blood Cotil. I advised a few to back Ned last week to take advantage of the 8-1, which could end up 3-1 tomorrow. However, I have been watching Ruby tug this one back all year, and whilst I had hoped he was going to run in the Plate today, I'm hoping he can finish as he started.

GL all

well now

 13:30 HARGAM (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 7/1 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  161.25

i can't get 4 places at the price anywhere


    Dormello Mo
    33-1`
    Win
    £8.20 EW restricted

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000126

5 places

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
3m 2 1/2f Chase
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4    Shoreacres    33/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 432.50
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 432.50



Single - 16:40

Le Mercurey - |Race Winner|

Odds: 8/1

Each way : 1/4

1 lines at £15.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £30.00

Potential Return:£180.00

Time : 13/3/2015-09:23

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000899

5 places on that too

and in the last for his biggest bet of the week so up the stakes

13 Mar 2015 - 5:15 Cheltenham - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Blood Cotil @ 9/1  EW @ 1/4 1-4

Stake : £60.00 (£30.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
397.50
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001227/F
Total Stake : £60.00

[TightEnd]

Good stuff Adzy, thank you. That'll keep Tighty busy in the morning, but at least we have some solid material to work with.

Another vote for Hargham for me, I think you want 7-1 4 places if possible in the morning (7/1 3 places is ok, but you can only get 6/1 with 4 right now, 7/1 is a bit better).  I also like Petite Parissiene.  You can get 12/1 3 places with Shy, which is nice but out of bounds for thread.  Hills, PP and b365 are 4 places and 8/1 and 9/1.  Just have to wait and hope for better in the morning.

edit.  sky would have been really good if you could get on because i forgot they were free bet if favourite wins in the first.   Unfortunately they have just gone 11/1 Petite Parissiene.  No good for thread, but should be good for those who can get sky offers.

£12 e/w 3 places

 13:30 PETITE PARISIENNE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 11/1 Stake: 24.00 Possible Return:  189.00

(emptying betvictor hence the stake size)

[Tonibell]

Sorry, Tighty I assumed Tikay went up to Ayrshire to got the seed potatoes for his allotment from Albert.

[TightEnd]

Tighty, do we have betvictor and totesport free bets stilll to use?

I was looking at the 2.05 earlier and picked out Ebony Express at 16/1 and The Game Changer at 11/1, so think the odds are in the right range. 

Both are a good age for the race (6).  One is a novice the other is a second season hurdler, which both get ticks, both seem progressive.  Both are top price with totesport and betvictor.  It would be a shame to use them outside the festival and racing.

Will let you choose which goes where.  If they are gone don't worry.

betvictor free bet

14:05 EBONY EXPRESS (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 19.00 Possible Return:  304.00


totesport has been used, i have a william hill free bet but they are 9-1

small interest in game changer though



Single - 14:05

The Game Changer - |Race Winner|

Odds: 10/1

Each way : 1/4

1 lines at £10.00 per line

Total Stake for this bet: £20.00

Potential Return:£145.00

Time : 13/3/2015-09:31

Receipt No:O/142640973/0000900

[TightEnd]

I've been following Colin Tizzard's horses for a while now and think Native River may be overpriced at 50-1 2.40 Chelt tomorrow. Seems to go ok on soft and beat Definitely Red ( a 25/1 shot in this race) over 2m6 at Newcastle , giving hope he'll see out the 3m. Was going ok on his only start at Chelt before falling. Won giving weight to the useful looking Emerging Talent lto. Suggest £5 win with BV

i was going to pop the william hill free bet on but not at 33-1

i put it on the exchange

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Native River 55 £5.00 £270.00
    Ref: 47435890332 Matched: 09:34 13-Mar-15

[TightEnd]

boxing apart, think that is the racing placed


please let me know if i have missed anything



the gold cup

our exposure is the £10 at 20-1 Silvanaco


all the feedback on here, or at least a majority towards a consensus is

- not enough rain for manyclouds though it would be a great winner for some regular posters
- djakadam too short
- silvanaco and the hill, and we have a position anyway


simon gave us lord windermere, off to re-read that now

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/15:20/winner

anybody want to talk road to riches, coneygree etc..or anything else in a wide open race?

[simonnatur]

Windermere a bit of a sentimental bet on my part - wasn't meant as a rec for Fred

[Doobs]

Don't know why but coral are 14/1 McKinley right now in the 4.40.  I was hoping for 12/1.  Gogogo 25 e/w if we can

Edit it is only 4 places with them but Betfair only 11 right now.

Silvianico Conti 11/2 right now too

think i was half an hour too late for these, sorry. 9/1 and 9/2 now, guess they have been acconmodated



the weather

5mm overnight and not a lot more forecast?

No worries.  PP are still 12/1 5 places, but don't know if they'll lay you a bean.

South west of cheltenham and drizzle for the last hour or so.

[BigAdz]

I'm crap with the maths on this sort of stuff, but Betfair SB have 3-1 on McCoy to ride a winner today.

Hargam 13-2
Ned B 9-2
Carlingford 11-1
Princely Conn 10-1
Fletchers Flyer 20-1

If someone could run the numbers, but that seems ok to me? Wont recommend until someone confirms if its good or not!

[TightEnd]

Don't know why but coral are 14/1 McKinley right now in the 4.40.  I was hoping for 12/1.  Gogogo 25 e/w if we can

Edit it is only 4 places with them but Betfair only 11 right now.

Silvianico Conti 11/2 right now too

think i was half an hour too late for these, sorry. 9/1 and 9/2 now, guess they have been acconmodated



the weather

5mm overnight and not a lot more forecast?

No worries.  PP are still 12/1 5 places, but don't know if they'll lay you a bean.

South west of cheltenham and drizzle for the last hour or so.

£2.70 e/w only

i suppose we wouldn't sniff at £30 if we found it in our back pocket

so i did £2.71 e/w 5 places McKinlay at 12-1